Hard to read the jibberish below but what it tells you is that option players have gone completely MAD !!! Jim Cramer has lost his mind ...Neal Cavuto is crazy !!! Cramer on thestreet.com says to BUY PUTS on GS as many as you can. The Bears are going to bury the brokers !!! Cavuto says the second shoe is going to fall this week and it could be 10% !!! FEAR is running amuck !!! Are you that scared...maybe I should be more fearful ??? Fact is we made enough money last week and raised our stops up where we CAN'T get hurt...too bad. We have ten stocks and are not holding any index puts ...I am very rarely this bullish ??? So why is everyone else so darned bearish !!!! Cramer ...of all things ...buying puts on his favorite stock !!! ha this Sub-Prime thing really gotten out of control ???
All I know is that sentiment is breaking all kinds of records ...valuation is the lowest it has been in a decade ...companies are buying back stock at a record pace and even though world markets are overvalued ...guess where the US market is since the last correction in May ....RUT or most Russell Indexes are exactly where they were then !!!! So much for the huge blowoff rally that most Bulls end on !!!!
I may be wrong but I Just don't see any more than another 2% at most on the down side and that can happen anytime ...the dangers are the opposite...not being invested...if we are down 10% this week and I am eating crow ...It is still a good time to buy...we will be stopped out of all our stocks and 100% in cash.
Why not buy PUTS ??? The answer is below ..though hard to read ...what it is saying is that the number of puts compared to the number of calls on the RUT is 3-1...when the average is .8-1. So if the market makes the most money for the most people then run the market down because every one and there sister has 1000 contracts of .IOWCY and expect 200 points down this week to pay off the house and refinance !!!!
Sure , I have called for an intraday spike down to test some technical levels on some bad news this week...but that is only to keep the Bulls honest and keep the strong hands LONG. Most of us don't have millions in the market and we try to get what we can out of our portfoilio, I don't want to lose our gains and make a fool of myself here !!!! I have had more Index puts in the last 60 days than in my lifetime ....and it was warranted ...I played them like a fool but I was there with the RIGHT CALL...Am I right on this call...staying with the Bull and the brokers and tech ??? I may get whacked for a bit this week but if I do not ....just remember ...I took on CRAMER and Cavuto and the 99% of the GURUS who expected the other shoe to fall this week. Cramer says the market is rigged and they are going down so might as well join them. I haven't gotten that synical yet ...and maybe I am naeve...it is not all roses out there but I do believe we did our time correction and our price correction now some backing and filling and maybe even a LAUNCH TO NEW HIGHS BY MAY 1st !!! How many people are calling that ....could we have caught earnings in a sweet spot where they still come in better than expected and ...even though inflation bugs me ...it is the short term inflation ...as long term inflation is TREMENDOUS.
So interest rates hiccupped this last week ..the stock market tried to get it's legs back and now all the BEARS are coming out of the woodwork...the most respected of which is http://www.tradertim.blogspot.com whom I have the utmost respect for and everyone should buy his new book...he has gotten extremely bearish after holding a neutral for a few days as we rallied.
So at the worst we get mauled out of our stocks and take a 10% hit to our portfolio...at best we are sitting on the best stocks in the world and we may ...just may be that 1% left that thinks that ...hey we have the highest levels of bearishness in years and these put buyers listed below are going home this options expiration week with alot of worthless PUTS ..Like 20 million at last count !!!!
Please take the time to e-mail or call me if you have any questions and new members , remember you can contact me 24/7 with any questions ...don't be shy !!!
Our special introductory TTT Hedge Fund ..which has been EN FUEGO is still accepting members at the unheard of low price of $75 per year.
Just PayPal $75 to : tomandprisha@msn.com and you will get the premium membership with daily e-mail updates ...IM chats and everything possible to make you a successful trader this week !!!!!
Thanks and GOOD LUCK !!!
**** Figures from options express on open interest in IWM puts / calls
IOWCY
1.55
+0.03
2,655.00
1.67
1.76
33,751.00
77.00
IOWOY
0.47
-0.31
43,509.00
0.46
0.48
206,102.00 That is 206,102 open put options vs. 33,751 open call options if the puts win out CRAMER IS RIGHT ...the market is manipulated ...even if it is and all those folks get in the money this week with a 2-8% fall. We will be in 100% cash !!!
If we are right ...we may add on a couple more thousand from our measly 21k that has grown 4x that in 10 months !!!! Could we make 100K by July 4th !!!!!
Only time will tell ...we will talk soon
Tom
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