Tuesday, September 30, 2008


XLK JAN 2009 20 Call (.XLKAT)
Market Data 9/30/2008 3:41:58 PM ET.

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Underlying Quote Insiders | Executives | SEC | Analysts | Historical | Time & Sales | Chart | Chain | Pricer | Stock | News | Xspreads

XLK 19.75 +0.75 (+3.95%) 19.75 19.76 19.78 19.18 7,407,898
Symbol Last Trade Today's Change Bid Ask High Low Volume

.XLKAT - XLK JAN 2009 20 Call
1.19 -0.01 ( -0.83%) 1.25

I rarely give ***** star trades out for Free but here is one >>>Buy XLKAT now and it will double or triple by Christmas.

Let me know how you do !

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QQQAK we made 27K on today !

QQQK we bought today

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Monday, September 29, 2008


We bet on the politics and not the technicals and got killed today. Many of us were stopped out at Break even or small losses on the Main Fund and we actually had gains in TRADERS as we shorted on the bill failure.

We are down to 20% long Main Fund

40% Long Traders and some tough days to come as we didn't expect this political issue would go to the extremes and cause the biggest drop in market history in certain areas.

For those who were Bears ...congratulations ..very well played...you bulls ...you have the odds with you long term ..traders ...lots of opps left ...VIX 50.00 is something anyone can make money in.




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Sunday, September 28, 2008


Week of September 29 - October 03
Date ET Release For Actual Briefing.com Consensus Prior Revised From
Sep 29 08:30 Personal Income Aug NA 0.2% -0.7%
Sep 29 08:30 Personal Spending Aug NA 0.2% 0.2%
Sep 30 09:45 Chicago PMI Sep NA 54.0 57.9
Sep 30 10:00 Consumer Confidence Sep NA 55.0 56.9
Oct 01 00:00 Auto Sales Sep NA NA 4.5M
Oct 01 00:00 Truck Sales Sep NA NA 5.9M
Oct 01 08:15 ADP Employment Sep -33K
Oct 01 10:00 Construction Spending Aug NA -0.5% -0.6%
Oct 01 10:00 ISM Index Sep NA 50.0 49.9
Oct 01 10:35 Crude Inventories 09/27 NA NA NA
Oct 02 08:30 Initial Claims 09/27 NA NA NA
Oct 02 10:00 Factory Orders Aug NA -1.8% 1.3%
Oct 03 08:30 Average Workweek Sep NA 33.7 NA
Oct 03 08:30 Hourly Earnings Sep NA 0.3% NA
Oct 03 08:30 Nonfarm Payrolls Sep NA -90K NA
Oct 03 08:30 Unemployment Rate Sep NA 6.1% NA
Oct 03 10:00 ISM Services Sep NA 50.0 50.6

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Friday, September 26, 2008


FRIDAY : SEPT. 26th 2008

QLD 58.95 -0.24 (-0.41%) 1.47B
ZF 3.80 -0.04 (-1.04%) 349.43M
PM 50.90 -0.71 (-1.38%) 104.92B
LLL 99.91 -0.51 (-0.51%) 12.13B
MCD 63.20 +0.93 (1.49%) 71.08B
UNP 73.27 +0.93 (1.29%) 37.31B
COST 66.29 +0.31 (0.47%) 28.82B
MO 20.89 +0.41 (2.00%) 43.03B
WFC 37.31 +3.19 (9.35%) 123.46B
GILD 48.64 +1.59 (3.38%) 44.74B
QCOM 45.84 -0.70 (-1.50%) 75.22B

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Thursday, September 25, 2008


TTT members took profits all day to trim down to 50% long in the Traders account and locking in profits will be in order as we got a bit too far ahead of this bailout as politicians are now putting Wall Street in TIME OUT !

So a more neutral setting is now to be used as the profits taken should be put in the can out back yard...



Wednesday, September 24, 2008


Hi ,

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Monday, September 22, 2008


For those who frequent the "free" blogs and jump in here on occasion I would like to welcome you to the most advanced website on the web. Not intechnology ...but our sister site (http://www.ttthedgefund.com) has some nice features ! We are the best market timers in the business and stock pickers. The best thing about our group is the professionalism ...we don't deal with the markets by the day we deal with them by the second.

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Sunday, September 21, 2008


Let's start in the depths of a bear market. The economy is usually in a recession or worse, business profits are tumbling and investors are punch drunk from suffering huge losses during a year or two of falling prices. Bad news is making headlines; good new is not even a dream at this point. Conditions have been so awful for so long that most people can see nothing else but the downtrend continuing. It's amid such doom and gloom that bear markets bottom and bull markets begin, meaning that the vast majority is wrong, precisely at the bottom.

Why? Well, with the economy collapsing, the Federal Reserve will usually begin loosening credit, and interest rates will start to fall precipitously. This gives stocks additional value as the competition from yields on cash equivalents falls. Typically, though, the economy has another six months or more left on the downside, and the worst results for corporate earnings usually lie ahead.

Even if Wall Street is correct in anticipating these lower profits, it can hardly equate them with higher stock prices. There seems to be some inborn reasoning in Wall Street that better profits mean higher stock prices, but this simply is not true in the aggregate. The best gains made in bull markets tend to come in the first six months of a fresh bull market, when profits are usually declining. So, it's difficult for investors to be optimistic when they're staring at a terible outlook for corporate earnings.

At this point investors and speculators have built up extraodinary cash reserves on the sidelines, partly because of the higher interest rates during a bear cycle and partly because the outlook is so gloomy that they prefer to hold cash rather than stock. Individuals and institutions have high levels of cash and little or no willingness to purchase stocks. Pessimism reigns. But when rates start to dcline, that acts as a catalyst in generating buying power because cash coupled with lower rates is not as attractive as cash coupled with higher rates. Moreover, the sharp drop in interest rates will usually stimulate the economy six to twelve months down the road. The stock market is a discounting mechanism, always looking ahead. So the current profit scene is not nearly as important as that anticipated.

With declining rates the usual stimulus, prices begin to rally as a new bull market is born. Not only is there tremendous pessimism before this initial rally, but that first rally traditionally is not believed! ARE WE HERE? During bear markets several rallies start, only to bite the dust, thus leading to lower and lower prices later. So why trust the new rally in the new bull market, especially since it tends to be the most vigourous rally seen in the cycle? The thinking is that if prices rally even more than usualy in a short period, they have that much more to fall back.

So, the shrewd investor, going against crowd behavior, has two clues near a bear market bottom: first, extraordinary pessimism among the crowd at the bottom, and second, continued skepticism and pessimism during the fist sharp rally in the bull market. In bear rallies the pessimism usually fades rapidly since investors are very eager to want to believe in the rally, hoping that the old bull market is resuming. But at the bottoms of bear markets, the crowd has been hammered too many times and regards the first true rally in the new bull market as an opportunity to sell. The crowd tends to be wrong at exactly the wrong time.

As a bull market proceeds and the rally fails to give way to a major decline, many investors find themselves shut out. Slowly they begin to believe that the move might be for real, and the thinking is, "I'll buy on the next decline." The problem is that the declines are never large enough to make people feel comfortable about buying. That's because there are too many bears on the sidelines eager to get in.

When prices back off just a couple of percent, several of these bears begin to buy, prematurely ending the decline and not allowing the bulk of the bears the opportunity to buy at lower prices. This trend continues as the market goes higher and higher with only small sell-offs. Eventually, the number of bulls becomes greater than the number of bears and, to some people studying the behavior of crowds, that becomes a signal to sell.

The idea is that if you use contrary opinion, you should go aginst the majority. But that's an oversimplification and certainy not true in the middle of a bull market. Just because 51% of the crowd is bullish and 49% bearish is no reason the market cannot go higher. In fact, it probably will advance at that point. The time to be wary of crowd psychology is when the crowd gets extraordinarily one-sided.

As the bull market continues to move higher, more and more people turn bullish. The flash point is really hit when the crowd has gotten so optimistic that it has used up the bulk of its cash. Cash represents firepower in the stock market. When it's depleted, the ammunition to blast stocks higher is gone. About the best the market can do is hold the line. If interest reates climb or some other undesirable fundamental factor appears, the market would be in serious trouble if the cash levels were low.

Near the top of the market, investors are extraordinarily optimistic because they've seen mostly higher prices for a year or two. The sell-offs witnessed during that span were usually brief. Even when they were severe, the market bounced back quickly and rose to loftier levels. The crowd anticipates higher price, and it "knows" that even if a sell-off comes, it will only be another buying opportunity and eventually will lead to still further advances.

At the top, optimism is king, speculation is running wild, stocks carry high price/earnings ratios, and liquidity has evaporated. A small rise in interest rates can easily be the catalyst for triggering a bear market at that point. On the first decline, pessimism does not pick up very much. Remembering the lessons of the bull market, people rush to buy on the decline, figuring that prices will bounce right back to new highs. But the first rally falters, doesn't get very far, and fails to make a new high. The next decline comes and carries prices even lower.

Now people begin to get a bit nervous and the pessimism slowly rises. It takes numerous sell-offs over many months before the pessimism really picks up speed. At some point in the midst of a bear market, business conditions are terrible. Then we're right back to the beginning of the cycle at the bottom of the bear market, when pessimism is at a peak.

Some people call the idea of monitoring the crowd and going against it the art of contrary opinion. It's okay to use that term, but just remember that you don't always want to go contrary to the crowd - you only want to do so when the crowd is extremely onesided. It's not easy to define extremely. There are many ways to measure the sentiment of a crowd, but the exact percentage of bulls or bears on any one indicator needed to give a buy or sell signal varies considerably from cycle to cycle. There is no magic level of optimism or pessimism that gives precise signals. That may be frustrating but it's a fact of life.

Nonetheless, by measuring a significant sample of crowd sentiment, ranging from the cash positions of individuals and institutions to the amount of speculative activity in short selling or option trading or the purchase of new issues, you can get a rough gauge of the degree of optimism or pessimism prevailing. When the crowd does get extreme, you should at least be wary. You can then integrate the sentiment readings, as crude as they might be, with monetary and tape condidions and have a fairly good sense of the major direction of the stock market.

Printed by Permission PHD. Martin Zweig

Saturday, September 20, 2008


No one has done as well as our Traders Group and our Main fund in the past 3 years. Anyone who says they are even close lets talk details.



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Friday, September 19, 2008


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Thursday, September 18, 2008


We are filling up fast for 2009 .

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Tuesday, September 16, 2008


No. Ticker Company Price Change% Volume Transaction Date Shares Cost Market Value Gain$ Gain% Change$
1. GS Goldman Sachs Group Inc. 133.01 -1.84% 48,080,572 Buy 09-15-08 10,000 143.25 1330099.95 -102400.05 -7.15% -24900.05
2. SSO Ultra S&P500 ProShares 54.64 2.80% 31,402,302 Buy 09-15-08 1,500 54.25 81960.00 585.00 0.72% 2235.00
3. SSO Ultra S&P500 ProShares 54.64 2.80% 31,402,302 Buy 09-12-08 1,500 58 81960.00 -5040.00 -5.79% 2235.00
4. COP ConocoPhillips 72.28 5.18% 19,792,588 Buy 09-15-08 500 72.25 36125.00 0.00 0.00% 1765.00
5. RIG Transocean, Inc. 120.48 3.16% 9,475,627 Buy 09-15-08 500 120.33 60240.00 75.00 0.12% 1845.00
6. VLO Valero Energy Corp. 31.77 1.86% 20,100,780 Buy 09-15-08 500 32.96 15885.00 -595.00 -3.61% 290.00
7. NUE Nucor Corporation 47.37 7.17% 11,481,911 Buy 09-15-08 500 46.47 23685.00 450.00 1.94% 1585.00
8. OXY Occidental Petroleum Corporation 69.81 3.18% 10,942,787 Buy 09-15-08 500 71 34905.00 -595.00 -1.68% 1075.00
9. CVX Chevron Corp. 81.86 2.21% 20,456,296 Buy 09-15-08 500 83.56 40930.00 -850.00 -2.03% 885.00
10. APA Apache Corp. 108.84 4.26% 6,567,134 Buy 09-15-08 500 108.01 54420.00 415.00 0.77% 2225.00

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Monday, September 15, 2008


1. TWM UltraShort Russell2000 ProShares 72.15 5.53% 5,449,585
Buy 09-11-08 20,000 69.22 1443000.03 58600.03 4.23% 75599.98
2. SDS UltraShort S&P500 ProShares 71.43 5.96% 24,529,980 Buy 09-11-08 10,000 68.5 714300.00 29300.00 4.28% 40199.97
3. SSO Ultra S&P500 ProShares 55.37 -5.61% 10,899,558 Buy 09-12-08 1,500 58 83055.00 -3945.00 -4.53% -4935.00
Total 3 Stocks 5.21% 2240355.03 83955.03 3.89% 110864.94

A nice gain ...then we sold out and went long SSO and GS



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Thursday, September 11, 2008


9:58 PM) tomthetrader: Zags ..thinking speculation is pretty heavy in both sides of the 2x ETFs ?

(9:59 PM) pupster: no risk on NVTL.....6 is the line in the sand there barring any unforseen event in afterhours on any given day.

(10:00 PM) pupster: nice gap fill to be had possibly also to @ 8

(10:04 PM) tomthetrader: anyway I was trying to ask Zags about the premium on his covered calls

(10:05 PM) tomthetrader: etc ...and the widening of the BB into opex showing there could be a big move soon

(10:06 PM) pupster: I sure do hope we get some up soon....would make things easier. what are your thoughts Tom.

(10:06 PM) tomthetrader: tomthetrader: I am thinking it could CRASH

tomthetrader: I think the widening of these monthly bands and increase in premium players are paying to take part means something BIG is afoot soon

(10:07 PM) tomthetrader: It is very earily similar to several other Crashes

(10:07 PM) tomthetrader: where weak markets lead to very weak markets

(10:07 PM) TraderTim: right you are, it is always during a period of weakness that the big crashes occur

(10:07 PM) tomthetrader: everyone thinks it will happen in October ..I say if it happens it could be by next thursday

(10:08 PM) pupster: qqq weekly chart sitting at support line from mid 2006

(10:08 PM) TraderTim: it has that "fragile" feeling to it . . .only thing missing is the Black Swan (unexpected) catalyst

(10:08 PM) tomthetrader: I have a bad feeling the last few days that it just will not stop as everyone finally bails

(10:08 PM) tomthetrader: and I think it comes from across the pond

(10:08 PM) tomthetrader: and Asia

(10:09 PM) tomthetrader: and very soon

(10:09 PM) TraderTim: that is why you slowed it down with size and tightening things

(10:09 PM) tomthetrader: yes

(10:09 PM) TraderTim: CASH or some serious HEDGES are needed then

(10:09 PM) TraderTim: thx for sharing this . . . I could tell you were sensing something . . .

(10:10 PM) tomthetrader: and will go short after "playing out ' the longs tomorrow hopefully with a patriotic rise into Friday then a Meltdown friday to friday taking out all stops to 1180 spx

(10:10 PM) TraderTim: wow . . .

(10:10 PM) TraderTim: I actually like the GamePlan

(10:11 PM) pupster: the weekly S& :^)

(10:11 PM) tomthetrader: tomthetrader: I think since WED of opex is usually the most Bullish if the drop doesn't begin by then I will go 200% short

(10:11 PM) pupster: weekly S&P and Q's look like it could actually happen.

(10:11 PM) tomthetrader: But we could break down any minute literally

(10:12 PM) tomthetrader: we are on a buy signal but got it satisfied

(10:12 PM) TraderTim: we should be very wary of holding anything too long until this passes

(10:12 PM) tomthetrader: and noware on a run up to overbpought as early as 1250

(10:13 PM) tomthetrader: yes ..I amreally going to work on this and make sure we start cutting back tomorrow and make sure dave knows ...we have a plan .

(10:13 PM) tomthetrader: TTT out

(10:14 PM) TraderTim: later thx

(10:14 PM) tomthetrader: aszager: agree people are not scared enough yet for the low but there could be a brief up move to draw people in and then collapse

tomthetrader: yes nice up even to 1250 tomorrow would get us overbought enough to get slapped and kicked down

tomthetrader: but if we run up to next Wd it will be a butt licker

tomthetrader: kicker

(10:14 PM) tomthetrader: sorry butt kicker

(10:15 PM) pupster: what do you mean by that as far as into next Wed.

(10:16 PM) pupster: butt kicker cooment.

(10:18 PM) tomthetrader: Wednesdays are typically the best UP days in a typically up week during opex

(10:18 PM) aszager: Let us hope that there is a bullish pop which will allow us to jump in deeper with inverse double etfs

(10:18 PM) tomthetrader: so if we survive above 1222 til then and maybe 1250 -1276 ...we will short like no tomorrow

(10:18 PM) pupster: so do you think a possible up into next Wed.?

(10:19 PM) pupster: *** if this happens then I can see another 8% down and the QID's go to 58 a 16% move right into resistance on the weeklys. ***

(10:19 PM) tomthetrader: yes ..but if any news event occurs - in the next 72 hours ...it will Crash and nor 300 points more like 1000 -1200

(10:19 PM) tomthetrader: QID was such a steal at 37.50

(10:20 PM) tomthetrader: We should have kept that as our core hedge since last summer

(10:20 PM) tomthetrader: Oh well

(10:20 PM) tomthetrader: I am to bed

(10:20 PM) pupster: live and burn. i mean learn.

(10:20 PM) tomthetrader: rough times here

(10:20 PM) tomthetrader: I hope to God I am wrong

(10:20 PM) pupster: nite. I hear ya man.............so do I.

(10:21 PM) aszager: What is also very possible is that it penetrates the lows scares everyone out and then we get the brief runup after stops are taken out. Tom look what you would have made just buying dug alone

(10:21 PM) aszager: Months ago you talked about the commodity collapse

(10:22 PM) tomthetrader: Yes the DUG call in retrospect could have made usall rich ...I was early but right

(10:22 PM) tomthetrader: UNG early but right

(10:23 PM) tomthetrader: now this crash ..hopefully wrong

(10:23 PM) tomthetrader: good night all

(10:23 PM) pupster: bye. in the morning....hope the indicators catch this right.

(10:24 PM) aszager: There is a good chance the dow 10000 is violated

(10:24 PM) aszager: good night

(10:24 PM) tomthetrader: yes ...if we continue up on the buy signal it should hit sell up 100 YM

(10:25 PM) aszager: That would be great because the vix needs to come down and the public needs to get blase

(10:48 PM) tomthetrader: ES U8 [10] E-MINI S&P 500 Sep '08 22:39:00 EDT 1,228.75 -4.50 1,232.25 1,234.50 1,228.25

(10:58 PM) nimesh_: not looking good at all

(10:58 PM) nimesh_: nq bid 1928

(8:34 AM) Alert: Hi , Welcome to TTT

(8:34 AM) TraderTim: 50/50 odds of .25 cut by end of year . . . maybe new song will be rate cut (inflate your way out)
(8:35 AM) thomas_Poland: we have very nice divergence in 3 day RSI
(8:36 AM) thomas_Poland: very often it means reversal
tomthetrader: As you know we shorted the futures last night and this morning but it has to be UNOFFICIAL.....we are 100% cash out of all positions at8:00am and short the ES YM 50% 5 contracts from 1230.00 level .
(8:36 AM) TraderTim: what time did you short
(8:37 AM) thomas_Poland: so those 1230 ES are not official Tom?
(8:37 AM) thomas_Poland: MSN does not work on my side
(8:38 AM) aszag: I bought some qld 2 days ago which certainly is under water at 65.2 but I got almost 2 points on the covered Sept 65 call and I also wrote the naked Sept 69 qld call and got .8 for that. I am hedged also with a lot of twm and naked bkx options
(8:38 AM) Alert: An admin joined the room: mickymax_ttt
tomthetrader: Can't be Zags knows and Tim can tell you all
tomthetrader: Doc and Gary
tomthetrader: Pupster
(8:39 AM) thomas_Poland: Do I need prove Tom?
(8:39 AM) thomas_Poland:
(8:39 AM) thomas_Poland: I know you did it .. just wanted to be sure that these are not official
(8:40 AM) aszag: Tom was very negative last night in the chat fearful of a hit in the market
tomthetrader: I think we had 8 or so out of 38 that saw the messages
(8:41 AM) TraderTim: yep
(8:42 AM) billb1947: i saw them later-at least we have a plan but 1250 today is looking less and less probable
tomthetrader: and we wer aware but not sure we had a reverse trade on at 1222.00 if things went bad yesterday and was still on....unless wwork 24/7 we will never get every move in this market...I went to bed at 4:00am up at 5:00am and just now woke up
tomthetrader: Not worth the wear on my old body
tomthetrader: I am 50% short and very very worried
(8:43 AM) aszag: Tom I still think there will be a pop next week because sentiment is deteriorating and then further collapse in the next month or so
tomthetrader: I think the Crash is on for 7-21 days to DOW 11,000
(8:44 AM) thomas_Poland: Tom you said before you want to do something on youtube. What do you plan?
(8:45 AM) aszag: Tom you said 11000. That is only 200 points away. Do you mean 10000?
tomthetrader: I had done a video on Sunday night ...ask Doc and ssny about it ...about the upcoming Crash and why we should be prepard for 11k and 10k before oCT
tomthetrader: yES
tomthetrader: ONE AT A TIME
tomthetrader: and quickly 20-500 a dat for several days
(8:46 AM) thomas_Poland: when you want us to watch the video?
(8:46 AM) thomas_Poland:
(8:48 AM) aszag: Tom if you are worried then the world must be frantic so there may be a brief pause next week before the collapse
(8:49 AM) aszag: The low may be in for today in the premarket
(8:54 AM) DE_TTT: Any thoughts on the Main Fund? Stay the course for now?
(8:56 AM) Fulkdaddy: I am a bit behind...I am 100% cash...is this correct Tom?
(8:57 AM) Fulkdaddy: Too late to short?
(8:59 AM) Alert: LIVE uninterrupted coverage of the 9/11 service from Ground Zero in Paltalk Studio B in the Shows and Events section NOW
(9:03 AM) Fulkdaddy: Doug Kass at 8:38 am: Err on the side of conservatism in your investing and trading; better yet, sit on your hands until the skies clear.
(9:03 AM) Alert: This is a G rated room intended for a General Audience including minors. Offensive language is not permitted.
(9:03 AM) Alert: Hi , Welcome to TTT

(9:03 AM) RV_trader: reminder futures rollver - should be trading december contract now
tomthetrader: Main Fund going 40% short
(9:04 AM) RV_trader: sept on the board until next friday but all volume will be in december
tomthetrader: YES all contracts DEC DUTURES NOW
tomthetrader: As described in the e-mail
tomthetrader: DEC Futures
(9:05 AM) nimesh_: ouch, nig red
(9:05 AM) nimesh_: gm all
(9:05 AM) Fulkdaddy: Rev Shark at 8:50 am:Most of the pain of a bear market is caused by the refusal to accept the fact that we are in one. If investors would simply embrace the fact that we are in a downtrending market and may not hit bottom for a while, they will relieve themselves of much pain and suffering.
tomthetrader: No doubt
(9:06 AM) nimesh_: what is the game plan
tomthetrader: we have certainly accepted and traded it with hopes it would end but ...here we go again .1222 -1200 1150 1100 ?
tomthetrader: get your shorties on
tomthetrader: BUY DEC Futures Short
(9:07 AM) nimesh_: tom we are closing all longs and going short?
tomthetrader: on any rallies or IWM puts atm
tomthetrader: Yes
(9:07 AM) thomas_Poland: Am I going to be the only bull here?
tomthetrader: yes
(9:07 AM) thomas_Poland: hmm ..
tomthetrader: msn Thomas ?
tomthetrader: was down
(9:08 AM) billb1947: i'm long for the moment thomas
(9:08 AM) thomas_Poland: I cant connect to MSN
(9:08 AM) thomas_Poland: it says 'service is not ready' or something like that
tomthetrader: was down worldwide this a.m.
(9:08 AM) TraderTim: what is happening on MSN???
(9:08 AM) thomas_Poland: short MSN
(9:09 AM) thomas_Poland: We have date Tim
(9:09 AM) thomas_Poland:
(9:09 AM) thomas_Poland: Tom in his pink dress
(9:09 AM) Fulkdaddy: ES is right at the Friday low
tomthetrader: does anyone have chat from last night 8-12:00am ?
(9:09 AM) thomas_Poland: and I only in T shirt
(9:09 AM) TraderTim: I will check
(9:09 AM) aszag: I was on with you late Tom but I don't have it
(9:10 AM) thomas_Poland: a big party
(9:10 AM) TraderTim: great discussion
(9:10 AM) TraderTim: last night
tomthetrader: If anyone can post last night please do
(9:11 AM) aszag: We are all in agreement that it is down but the question is will it be before or after options exp that is the big down
(9:11 AM) nimesh_: i guess no 9/11 rally
tomthetrader: Doc and gary are still sleepy
(9:12 AM) TraderTim: zags couldn't we see a rally before the drop
tomthetrader: No none cares nimesh ...hedge funds have the world on the run
(9:13 AM) Fulkdaddy: Tom, you are correct..the more I read about hedge funds and how they make their profits...by leveraging and not sound stock analysis...the riskier the unwind is when they are forced to liquidate.
(9:14 AM) aszag: I would love a little pop next week to add to my double inverse etfs
tomthetrader: yes Dave and I should have put the risksout to all of us sooner
(9:14 AM) TraderTim: the Great UNWIND
tomthetrader: as these funds have no way to perform except to kill everyone in their path
tomthetrader: they will be regulated soon
(9:14 AM) Fulkdaddy: Tom, one thing I have learned in my life is we always do our absolute best at the time we are doing it.
tomthetrader: but until ...they will try to get this market to 0
(9:15 AM) Fulkdaddy: It is obvious to us all that you care about us and teaching us how to survive in this new type of market.
(9:15 AM) Fulkdaddy: You are incredibly smart and I appreciate all you have done for me
(9:15 AM) syzygy111: y
(9:15 AM) wclegg: y
(9:15 AM) brownmj21: y
(9:15 AM) lkmcd1: y
(9:15 AM) TraderTim: y
(9:15 AM) bloomert: y
(9:15 AM) berniectx: y
(9:16 AM) Fulkdaddy: y
(9:17 AM) aszag: y
(9:20 AM) nimesh_: how many short es contracts?
(9:22 AM) ssny2004: 950 is my new eventual target
(9:23 AM) aszag: If it goes down 15-20% that may lead to the start of a bull market later this year or early next but first blood
(9:23 AM) ssny2004: agreed zags
(9:26 AM) nimesh_: are we going straight down at open
(9:26 AM) pupster1: friend and neighbor remembered...god bless him and family.
tomthetrader: God Bless Them
(9:27 AM) pupster1: yes and all.....
(9:28 AM) ssny2004: amen
(9:28 AM) Fulkdaddy: I am 100% cash. Enter short now, Tom? Or wait for a bounce...that may never come???
(9:29 AM) Fulkdaddy: I have too much "speculative blood"...
(9:29 AM) Fulkdaddy: Bullish?
(9:29 AM) Fulkdaddy: Whew!
(9:29 AM) Docqb: whew, i feel better
(9:30 AM) Docqb: okie doke
(9:30 AM) Docqb: sorry im late long gas lines hurricane
(9:31 AM) Docqb: we basically have to fill the gap at around 1000 sp 500
(9:31 AM) Docqb: and 10000 dow
(9:31 AM) Docqb: hopefully quick as tom and i would like
(9:31 AM) Docqb: we hit the top of the downward trend line all week and have been failing miserabely miserabley
(9:32 AM) Docqb: tom, do we agree that once it breaks 1200 will accelerate quickly ?
(9:32 AM) Docqb: that enough tom ?
tomthetrader: Yes
tomthetrader: No keep going please
(9:34 AM) Docqb: i think we should get short and stay short until around those areas and then reassess
(9:34 AM) Docqb: i can make a case for lower but have to wait and see
(9:34 AM) Docqb: tom, we'll try to get a measurement on the next bounce point
(9:34 AM) Fulkdaddy: How about TLT?
(9:34 AM) Fulkdaddy: Flight to quality?
(9:35 AM) Docqb: that one helps dave
(9:35 AM) PhotosbyDill: good job doc
tomthetrader: again we will get 30 min readinfgs to add to short long positions
(9:36 AM) nimesh_: why is nasdaung rallyuing
(9:36 AM) Docqb: thanks, sorry got here late, long gas lines
(9:36 AM) nimesh_: rut weakest this morning
(9:36 AM) Docqb: people freakin out about the hurricane
(9:37 AM) Docqb: do you see it accelerating after 1200 tom ?
(9:37 AM) ssny2004: I am hoping for 1250 but no confidence
(9:38 AM) Docqb: agree strongly
(9:38 AM) TraderTim: would GOLD do well during this "crash" scenario or will commodity downtrend keep it from being a panic hedge?
(9:40 AM) Fulkdaddy: Tom, what made you change so abruptly last night Tom?
(9:40 AM) TraderTim: dzz
(9:40 AM) TraderTim: 2x short gold
(9:40 AM) Fulkdaddy: To a crash type from possibility of a new bull a week or so back?
(9:40 AM) csu30: Would liquidation also include natural gas holdings (UNG, EP)
(9:41 AM) TraderTim: THOMAS we are almost at your 1213
(9:41 AM) thomas_Poland: I know
(9:41 AM) thomas_Poland: we were there before
(9:41 AM) TraderTim: yep
(9:42 AM) Docqb: look at VIX
(9:42 AM) Docqb: fed is out of options
(9:43 AM) TraderTim: How will the 14 indicators look as we approach the "crash" scenrio. Overbought? or Oversold going more oversold?
(9:44 AM) ssny2004: VIX at 25.90
(9:45 AM) Docqb: remember, if you look back historically, mkt don't crash from overbought, but oversold
(9:46 AM) Docqb: this mkt is extremely dangerous, i think that would be the most important point
(9:46 AM) Docqb: even if we don't make money on this move, keep your powder dry, excellent buys in coming months
(9:47 AM) csu30: How will NG holdings fare (UNG, EP) - solely a function of NG prices or affected by the downdraft?
(9:47 AM) Docqb: tom, gary and i are also noticing that oil and vix are running inversely
(9:47 AM) Docqb: we are watching for when that changes
(9:48 AM) TraderTim: I asked above, how do you see the indicators behaving during the "crash" scenario? OB? or OS?
(9:50 AM) TraderTim: How do you play the BOX during shorting scenario?
(9:51 AM) TraderTim: so you short 1230 and cover 1200
(9:51 AM) RV_trader: TLT divergent to the market not making new higher high daily with market lower lows and nadaq with some realtive strength?
(9:51 AM) nimesh_: i'm using er2
(9:52 AM) TraderTim: I like that idea of selling only 1 contract at bottom of box and letting the other one run
(9:54 AM) thomas_Poland: let us see the viedo tom
(9:54 AM) thomas_Poland:
(9:55 AM) pupster1: Camtasia Tom...
(9:55 AM) thomas_Poland: covered my long at breakeven
(9:59 AM) Alert: LIVE uninterrupted coverage of the 9/11 ceremony from Ground Zero continues in Paltalk Studio B in the Special Events section now
(10:01 AM) thomas_Poland: I covered so they can start running up
(10:01 AM) ssny2004: covered my shorts
(10:01 AM) thomas_Poland:
(10:01 AM) ssny2004:
(10:02 AM) thomas_Poland: I think we will have short term bottom today or tomorrow
(10:02 AM) thomas_Poland: tomorrow better
(10:03 AM) thomas_Poland: at 1186??
(10:06 AM) Docqb: tom I hope the research we've been doing really helps the room profit
(10:07 AM) pupster1: If they don't rally the market on a day like today....I'd be surprised.
(10:07 AM) billb1947: how did you determine the bottom of today's box tom? Is it because the previous low was there or was there a chart indicator?
(10:07 AM) Docqb: pup, they might, that's one of their old tricks, that's what i'm watching for
(10:08 AM) thomas_Poland: me to popster
tomthetrader: Bill Yes
(10:08 AM) Docqb: but if the do, i'm gonna short it with 10 trucks
(10:08 AM) thomas_Poland: but they got me out
(10:08 AM) thomas_Poland:
(10:09 AM) thomas_Poland: anybody have gun I can use?
(10:09 AM) thomas_Poland: just want to shoot my foot
(10:09 AM) pupster1: gotta feeling TP they will.
(10:09 AM) thomas_Poland: or head
(10:09 AM) Docqb: thomas, ya got yer pink shorts on ?
(10:09 AM) Docqb: i got mine on
(10:09 AM) thomas_Poland: no I was long 1214 with target 1220-25
(10:09 AM) thomas_Poland: and I got stopped out at breakeven
(10:09 AM) Fulkdaddy: Rallied up to the downtrend line
(10:10 AM) thomas_Poland: and now we are where I wanted ??
(10:11 AM) ssny2004: i think the prevailing sentiment is that any move up will be shorted with intensity, so it is starting to look unlikely we will have a big move
(10:13 AM) Docqb: pup, the may rally it today, and even the next 2 - 3 days (although unlikely), but ultimately, with fundamentals so poor, down looks like the only option
(10:13 AM) Docqb: unless we take up a pool in the room and do some capital infusion
(10:15 AM) pupster1: I said it last night in chat...weeklys look like they are heading down big.
(10:15 AM) ssny2004: the ballsy trader would look for a point up on LEH
(10:16 AM) Docqb: and not to take up a political soapbox, most people missed the hardly publicized news story about denver minerals (a fed agency) giving the keys to the henhouse to the oil companies
(10:16 AM) Docqb: that really chaps my arse, that's our hard earned tax dollars
(10:17 AM) Docqb: having sex with female oil company execs ? give me a break.....
(10:17 AM) ssny2004: they're still digesting the huge gift to Bill Gross & pals from Paulson that is the Frannie bailout
(10:19 AM) billb1947: sounds like Ike will be fairly nasty
(10:20 AM) Docqb: yes, gas lines are already an hour long in certain parts of town
(10:21 AM) nimesh_: tom, nice rally
(10:22 AM) billb1947: evacuating galveston and so. houston
(10:23 AM) Docqb: yes, i remeber the Rita evacuation, what a disaster
(10:23 AM) RV_trader: RIMM rocket ship
tomthetrader: I love RIMM just cannot time it
(10:26 AM) ssny2004: y
(10:26 AM) brownmj21: y
(10:26 AM) syzygy111: y
(10:26 AM) PhotosbyDill: y
(10:26 AM) csu30: y
(10:26 AM) berniectx: y
(10:26 AM) bogdan k: y
(10:27 AM) billb1947: got it
(10:27 AM) les13436: y
(10:27 AM) erndog9: where is this chart?
(10:27 AM) ssny2004: got it
(10:27 AM) syzygy111: got chart
(10:27 AM) Fulkdaddy: Got it
(10:27 AM) erndog9: yes, thanks just now
(10:27 AM) bogdan k: y
(10:29 AM) Fulkdaddy: When do we short the dollar? 80 is major resistance, going back many years. Louise Yamada pointed this out as the major resistance.
(10:30 AM) Fulkdaddy: Looks like 2001 on the same chart!
(10:30 AM) Docqb: Dave, exactly, those who don't learn from history, are doomed to repeat it...
(10:31 AM) Fulkdaddy: Crossing the BBandLE like in '01
(10:31 AM) Fulkdaddy: What is BBandLe mean?
(10:31 AM) PhotosbyDill: breaking up tom
(10:31 AM) Docqb: just some strategy were working on for the room Dave, we'll get back to you on that one
(10:32 AM) ssny2004: bollinger band Dave
(10:32 AM) ssny2004: LE is long entry
tomthetrader: again any questions on the chart
(10:32 AM) ssny2004: SE is short
(10:32 AM) Docqb: but essentially, this next down leg should be the remaining 20% of the correction
(10:32 AM) PhotosbyDill: Ignore that buy signal
(10:33 AM) ssny2004: yes
(10:33 AM) Docqb: most importantly, see the new rising trend line in the dow and sp, that should be where we buy and bounce hard
(10:33 AM) PhotosbyDill: It is a strategy in TradeStation and only works on short term charts. But does serve to help learning
(10:34 AM) ssny2004: doc that would be 1000, makes sense
(10:34 AM) Docqb: we are working on the short term timing of the next big up and down move
(10:34 AM) Docqb: we don't have to go straight down from here, but we could and just want everyone to be on alert
(10:35 AM) nimesh_: tpm, what was our box trade for es?
(10:35 AM) Docqb: best case scenario, and i'll use QLD as an indicator, we come up for a few days, to say 1250 as tom and i had discussed, that would be a gift short
(10:36 AM) Docqb: but remember, the floor is looking at the same things we're looking at
(10:36 AM) Docqb: and they love to hit the brakes hard and the accelerator hard
(10:37 AM) Docqb: weak hands
(10:37 AM) les13436: Paltalked logged me off during your audio can you just bottom line the chart for me in chat? thx
(10:37 AM) Docqb: i would love to see QLD rally to 69ish here
(10:38 AM) PhotosbyDill: We are at a very indecisive point right now so watch both QID and QLD
(10:38 AM) PhotosbyDill: OK?
(10:38 AM) Docqb: my take for today though, is they horse around till a little after lunch, and then get nasty
tomthetrader: straddles are OK but outright shorts and trading the OB OS may work out well as VIX 30.00 is not far away
(10:39 AM) Docqb: but it is 9-11, so a specious variable that's hard to account for technically
(10:39 AM) PhotosbyDill: Much of what you are seeing can be learned and save alot of vomit is spreads
(10:39 AM) PhotosbyDill: Using Spreads
tomthetrader: great thing is this will have us more intellectually prepared for the actions of the next 3-4 weeks and we will see a new Bull by Xmas
(10:40 AM) PhotosbyDill: Now they starting to bring up QLD and sell off QID
(10:40 AM) Docqb: i agree, the feds don't want this to drop all at once, so water torture, spreads work great for that, wait till they break and show their hand in a big way
(10:40 AM) nimesh_: what is going on, trin under 1, showing accumaltion?
(10:41 AM) pupster1: mentioned HUM in last nights chat...pretty good relative performance so far.
(10:41 AM) thomas_Poland: short term bottom tomorrow or even today nimesh
(10:41 AM) PhotosbyDill: Watch for double bottoms on QID and double top on QLD where will it go
(10:41 AM) PhotosbyDill: 500t chart
(10:42 AM) Docqb: if we can get to sp 1250 roughly, would be a gift to the room, they will take it down fast, roughly, at that level
(10:43 AM) Docqb: but the big confirmatiion on all this, look at all the forward guidances being revised downward
(10:43 AM) PhotosbyDill: Any question?
tomthetrader: MCD up and is a possible short candidate
(10:43 AM) PhotosbyDill: Absolutely Doc
(10:43 AM) nimesh_: ndx strongest
(10:44 AM) nimesh_: is someone talking?
(10:44 AM) Docqb: nimesh, yes, us, probably too much..... lol
(10:44 AM) nimesh_: haha
(10:44 AM) thomas_Poland: nimesh you hear voices???
(10:44 AM) nimesh_: , no i have no audio
(10:44 AM) Fulkdaddy: Do we have stops on our futures?
(10:44 AM) nimesh_: was wondering if i need to restart
(10:45 AM) nimesh_: thomas, i always hear voices
(10:45 AM) Docqb: dave good question
(10:45 AM) thomas_Poland: that is not good nimesh
(10:45 AM) PhotosbyDill: Anyone seeing the tests on double bottom and tops?
(10:45 AM) thomas_Poland:
(10:46 AM) nimesh_: hehe
(10:46 AM) PhotosbyDill: what is VIX doing vs XOI
(10:46 AM) thomas_Poland: Tim ?
(10:46 AM) TraderTim: Yes THOMAS
(10:46 AM) thomas_Poland: How did you like my morning call of 1213??
(10:46 AM) TraderTim: it was sweet
(10:46 AM) Docqb: any one in the room interested in some basic intra ideas
(10:46 AM) thomas_Poland: I said it is very important level?
(10:47 AM) thomas_Poland: And I did go long and did not make money ??
(10:47 AM) nimesh_: o, this hurts
(10:47 AM) PhotosbyDill: Hi Thomas when you coming to stay with me. It is bow and arrow season now and maybe we could bag a BEAR. OK?
(10:47 AM) TraderTim: I understand.
(10:47 AM) Docqb: intra day ideas ?
(10:47 AM) nimesh_: sold my nq near lows
(10:47 AM) thomas_Poland: Yes Gary
tomthetrader: NDX green
(10:47 AM) PhotosbyDill: How weather in Poland today
(10:47 AM) thomas_Poland: 1213 is the most important Fib level for me
(10:48 AM) thomas_Poland: Weather is ok Gary
(10:48 AM) PhotosbyDill: hang in ther friend
tomthetrader: Intraday ideas Doc ..let em rip
(10:48 AM) Docqb: ok
(10:48 AM) thomas_Poland: no rain .. would like to ride my motorbike but have to watch prices
(10:48 AM) Docqb: wasn't sure
(10:48 AM) Docqb: let's do the 30 minute rule
(10:49 AM) PhotosbyDill: Hey Doc, you bragging about your sexual prowess?
tomthetrader: Q's up
(10:49 AM) thomas_Poland: Do we have a chance to go 1244 today?
tomthetrader: seconds ?
(10:49 AM) Docqb: if within the first 30 minutes after regular open a stock or index that has say gapped up
(10:50 AM) PhotosbyDill: Alright some one is paying attention to the QID vs QLD. I love you TOM
(10:50 AM) TraderTim: NQ really strong since 8:30am this morning
(10:50 AM) RV_trader: gap fill first Thomas 32.50
(10:50 AM) ssny2004: looks like we may get that gift 1240+
(10:50 AM) Docqb: if the run the shorts, possibly
(10:50 AM) Docqb: everyone still with me ?
(10:50 AM) thomas_Poland: RV obviously going to 1244 we have to come through 1232.50
(10:50 AM) thomas_Poland:
(10:50 AM) pupster1: GO GO market...so far so good.
(10:50 AM) thomas_Poland: no chance it can be different
(10:50 AM) nimesh_: did they just suck in the shorts
(10:50 AM) nimesh_: and then suck in the longs?
(10:51 AM) thomas_Poland: nimesh stop!
(10:51 AM) thomas_Poland:
(10:51 AM) PhotosbyDill: I have been short QID and Long QLD since at market close and into after market
(10:51 AM) Docqb: no
(10:51 AM) thomas_Poland: Tom will kick you out
(10:51 AM) thomas_Poland:
(10:51 AM) thomas_Poland: and here it is ... 200 sma
(10:51 AM) ssny2004: nice curl!
(10:52 AM) nimesh_: haha thomas
(10:52 AM) Docqb: if a stock has gapped up, it will usually retrace within the first 30 minutes in the am
(10:52 AM) thomas_Poland: Doc VIC said if it is not filled in 15 mins there are 80% or so chance that it wil not be filled
(10:52 AM) thomas_Poland: VIC vel Sperandeo
(10:52 AM) thomas_Poland: it is a rule for him .. good one I think
(10:52 AM) RV_trader: Thomas that may not be obvious to most if they are not on dat session only
(10:53 AM) RV_trader: day
(10:53 AM) Docqb: however, if it breaks the prior day close, ie goes below it, odds are high of a intra day reversal
(10:53 AM) Docqb: stock or index will close negative
(10:53 AM) thomas_Poland: RV I was joking
(10:53 AM) Docqb: works same way for gap down
(10:53 AM) Docqb: like this morning
(10:54 AM) PhotosbyDill: I will watch to go Long QID and short QLD when turns
(10:54 AM) ssny2004: nasdaq about to go positive yeah let's get long!!!!
(10:55 AM) ssny2004: just kidding
(10:55 AM) RV_trader: here's to that pink dress
tomthetrader: YEAH
tomthetrader: YOU TUBE
tomthetrader: Thomas ...sexy boy !
(10:55 AM) Docqb: so even though they are taking it up now, the gap down wasn't cleared in the first 30 min
(10:55 AM) PhotosbyDill: So I hope everyone sees that you can do spreads on stocks without option trading
(10:55 AM) thomas_Poland: did we start porn chat?
(10:55 AM) Docqb: so we want to be alert for sell off later in afternoon
(10:55 AM) thomas_Poland:
(10:55 AM) thomas_Poland: Tom .. what you tube
tomthetrader: opening gap was filled
(10:56 AM) pupster1: is that rule of thumb Doc as far as 1st 30 minutes.
tomthetrader: OIL heading to mid 90's
(10:56 AM) Docqb: yes tom, but not in the first 30 min
(10:56 AM) thomas_Poland: Tom .. on this chart you sent .. could you add few more indicators ??
(10:56 AM) thomas_Poland: just kidding
tomthetrader: we will add a daytradeshort ES at 1226
(10:57 AM) Docqb: it's not 100%, but has a high percentage rate
tomthetrader: with 1233 stop and 1200 target
(10:57 AM) thomas_Poland: how many?
(10:57 AM) thomas_Poland: 1?
tomthetrader: 1
(10:58 AM) PhotosbyDill: Out of my spread with profit now watching to reverse
(10:59 AM) PhotosbyDill: standing aside now and watching
(10:59 AM) PhotosbyDill: We having FUN YET TOM
tomthetrader: Again remember my prediction of 100.00 oil By October and 80-90 by Xmas ?
tomthetrader: DUG would have been the play of the year ?
(11:00 AM) Docqb: you know, these traders not shorting could be a real gift today
(11:00 AM) nimesh_: damn, they rally running it up
tomthetrader: and if we would have held 100% DUG we would have been having our annual meeting in miami ?
(11:01 AM) nimesh_: any "news" why it turned around
tomthetrader: up or down /
tomthetrader: Oil to $100
tomthetrader: is propping up the market but a/d line pitiful
(11:01 AM) ssny2004: dick fuld calling for an investiggation into shorts (kidding)
tomthetrader: Dick into shorts ?
(11:02 AM) PhotosbyDill: vix 25.74 xoi 1183.39
tomthetrader: 11220 YM short
tomthetrader: 1
(11:05 AM) rekon8_TTT:
***** Start Whisper
Tom, ES and YM are futures right? Going to TDWaterhouse to add funds and request to trade futures
***** End Whisper
(11:05 AM) nimesh_: ga[p fillerd on iwm
(11:06 AM) nimesh_: tom, if er2 has the most to lose, why not er2?
tomthetrader: Just due to volatility ..if you are young and can handle it i would go ER2
(11:06 AM) pupster1: had a feeling we'd see green....pure luck on my part.
(11:07 AM) nimesh_: haha, i will go with er2 then
(11:07 AM) pupster1: you guys think we can hold it?
tomthetrader: Yes ////you can replicate and add QID TWM DDXD any 2x short
tomthetrader: short the rallies guys
tomthetrader: short the rallies
(11:08 AM) pupster1: ok.
tomthetrader: 17-7 a/d -
tomthetrader: not bright news
tomthetrader: NQ doing well
(11:14 AM) Docqb: good call on the turn tom
(11:17 AM) dennis_3007: hi
tomthetrader: lot of work out there Bullhave their reasons to play too
tomthetrader: it seems like the break of 1222.00 is step 1 and 1200 step 2 nad any rallies until 1260 should be shorted
(11:18 AM) Docqb: yes
(11:20 AM) PhotosbyDill: Ya looking good TOM
(11:20 AM) berniectx: AD -1693
tomthetrader: Thank you
(11:26 AM) Docqb: bernie, you here in texas ?
(11:26 AM) greenplant: hello
(11:27 AM) berniectx: yes Dallas
(11:28 AM) berniectx: are you in Houston Doc?
(11:28 AM) Docqb: oh, good, they just put out mandatory evacuation for galvestion
(11:28 AM) Docqb: yes, galleria area
(11:28 AM) berniectx: be careful
(11:28 AM) Docqb: thanks
(11:28 AM) Docqb: been through a few of these
(11:28 AM) Docqb: i think the panic is worse than the storm
(11:29 AM) nimesh_: rumor about emergency rate cut?
(11:30 AM) Docqb: nimesh, are you serious ?
(11:30 AM) nimesh_: that is what i heard from someone
(11:30 AM) nimesh_: can u believe it
tomthetrader: the ability to hold 1222.00 is is great news ...we will have to see hwere we are at 4;00pm
(11:31 AM) Docqb: yes, they keep it up and they're gonna be out of a job soon
(11:31 AM) ssny2004: rate cut would not be well received imo - dollar/commod complex
(11:31 AM) Docqb: ssny exactly
tomthetrader: yes commodities would soar as would stocks
(11:31 AM) Docqb: and the hedgies will short the crap out of it
tomthetrader: for 30 min
(11:31 AM) Docqb: and so will i
tomthetrader: agree
(11:32 AM) ssny2004: lol tom
(11:32 AM) PhotosbyDill: Scaling in now on QID
(11:32 AM) PhotosbyDill: LONG
tomthetrader: we can't cut rates til april 2009
tomthetrader: ECB can start though today
(11:32 AM) nimesh_: ughh, i ahve made all the wrong moves today
(11:32 AM) Docqb: gary, we gotta be careful with this emergency rate cut rumor
tomthetrader: Q's green
(11:33 AM) ssny2004: nimesh the past two days I have been trading short moves on wb mer aig and made easy bucks
(11:33 AM) pupster1: have been long.
(11:33 AM) PhotosbyDill: If so will reverse again
tomthetrader: Many are still hoping 1222 .00 Holds
(11:34 AM) Docqb: you can make money either way intra day
tomthetrader: market doing a good job
(11:36 AM) pupster1: i made a decision to not and try to day trade today.
(11:36 AM) berniectx: AD bouncing -1360
(11:37 AM) pupster1: let's see if I can hold out and stay smart along the way.
(11:37 AM) Docqb: pup, probably a good idea with floor traders acting weird
(11:37 AM) pupster1: just added to UYG long
(11:37 AM) nimesh_: man, this is tough
tomthetrader: Pupster going long UYG !!!! I love it
tomthetrader: hate trading long into such a treacherous tape
tomthetrader: 43.00 on Q's ..they were so oversold
tomthetrader: es ym iwm all shortable now
tomthetrader: if you have not
(11:39 AM) thomas_Poland: my last long is not looking so stupid now
(11:41 AM) thomas_Poland: now clear 5 waves up on 5 min
(11:41 AM) pupster1: Yes Tom...long 3000 shares
(11:42 AM) pupster1: + QLD from late yesterday which I failed to add to this morning as I should have.
tomthetrader: very good trades ...very nice snap back
tomthetrader: and lets see if we can hold
tomthetrader: all indices looking to go +
(11:46 AM) nimesh_: tom, remain short, correct?
(11:46 AM) RV_trader: how's that Thomas to the tick 32.50
(11:46 AM) RV_trader: run it back the other way now
tomthetrader: Houston "best place in america to buy a home right now " on CNBC
tomthetrader: short all ralllies
(11:47 AM) Docqb: i agree 2000%
(11:47 AM) Docqb: cept for a lil wind from time to time
(11:48 AM) erndog9: do you still have es stops at 1233??
(11:48 AM) TraderTim: anyone have the new symbol for ER2 dec? ERSZ8 is not trading.
(11:48 AM) erndog9: er2z8
(11:49 AM) TraderTim: ER2Z8 I meant
(11:49 AM) wgcarr: tf on the ice
(11:49 AM) nimesh_: er2z8
(11:49 AM) nimesh_: , not trading
(11:49 AM) erndog9: tos shows /tf
(11:49 AM) TraderTim: not trading on IB
tomthetrader: we may see a options ex or some type of shortcovering rally into WEd but our odds are a failure here '
(11:49 AM) TraderTim: only sept
(11:50 AM) wgcarr: er2 moving from cme to ice
(11:50 AM) erndog9: 1233 still your stop on es?
(11:50 AM) TraderTim: that is what I heard . . .
(11:50 AM) TraderTim: sorry I keep stepping on your erndog
(11:50 AM) erndog9: or is it on the cash spx?
(11:50 AM) TraderTim: ern wants to know what is stop on ES?
tomthetrader: Cash Spx ern
tomthetrader: 1233.00
(11:50 AM) erndog9: thanks
tomthetrader: remember a big premium now in cash and DEC
(11:51 AM) pupster1: so far
(11:51 AM) erndog9: thanks
(11:52 AM) ssny2004: SP positive on cash
(11:52 AM) thomas_Poland: this is why I hate this market .. was long 1214 as a perfect trade and got out
tomthetrader: why did you exit Tomek /
(11:52 AM) ssny2004: buy buy buy
tomthetrader: Rally
(11:52 AM) pupster1: my 2 mistakes for today were not adding to QLD and buying ES's and holding them on into the close.
(11:52 AM) nimesh_: agree thomas
(11:53 AM) thomas_Poland: It moved few points in my direction Tom and I moved stop to breakeven
(11:53 AM) thomas_Poland:
tomthetrader: Q's bolted 40 cents
tomthetrader: shortcovering scare
tomthetrader: stopped on es short covered 1233.00 cash
tomthetrader: 1 contract
(11:56 AM) TraderTim: Tom where would you re-enter next short?
tomthetrader: Here
tomthetrader: staggerring YM ES and ER2
(11:57 AM) TraderTim: that's what I was thinking
(11:58 AM) TraderTim: are you doing Sept or Dec?
tomthetrader: 714.00 ER2 bought 2 short
tomthetrader: DEC
(11:58 AM) nimesh_: tom, u feeling young?
(11:58 AM) billb1947: forgot to write it down-thomas what was ttt entry point for 1st es short?
(11:59 AM) billb1947: 1230?
(11:59 AM) Alert: Time to get all your car care questions answered in the Bobby Likis Car Clinic in Paltalk Studio A in the Radio/TV Section NOW [Free Video]
(12:00 PM) pupster1: QLD....aargh
tomthetrader: Yes ..I think the market is going to rollover into the OPEX and Crash
(12:01 PM) nimesh_: wow, this sucks
tomthetrader: 2-1 - a/d line
tomthetrader: got to love it nimesh
(12:01 PM) pupster1: should've added.
(12:02 PM) pupster1: XLK coming out of a Bullish Wedge on 60 minute.
(12:03 PM) csu30: Should we be looking at stocks to short?
(12:03 PM) billb1947: tom-what was your es short entry?
(12:04 PM) pupster1: just sold QLD and UYG....now will wait and see.
tomthetrader: Bill I was stopped at 1233 ES on 1
(12:04 PM) ssny2004: LEH at 4.30 was a sweet long trade
(12:04 PM) pupster1: cash is King.
tomthetrader: still short from 133.00 with a 1252 stop on 10 and now short YM and ER2
tomthetrader: sell the rallies biys
tomthetrader: sell the rallies
tomthetrader: 1233.00
tomthetrader: again short 10ES at 1233.00 2 ER2 at 714.00 and 1 YM
tomthetrader: and looking to sell all rallies
(12:08 PM) thomas_Poland: I think we can have one more HOD today
(12:09 PM) Docqb: what is your high pick thomas ?
tomthetrader: My High before the Crash is 1252
(12:09 PM) thomas_Poland: 1244
(12:09 PM) Docqb: i see no higher than 1240
(12:09 PM) thomas_Poland: I mean today
tomthetrader: mine is Wed of next week
(12:09 PM) Docqb: close enough, we are all i a range
(12:10 PM) ssny2004: 1245
(12:10 PM) thomas_Poland: hmm ...
(12:10 PM) thomas_Poland: to many of us want this level
(12:11 PM) ssny2004: so they may leave us waiting
(12:12 PM) Docqb: nah thomas, we're in a minority
(12:12 PM) Docqb: definitely not the masses
(12:14 PM) aszag: I was away from the computer but the pop that I hoped for allowed me to get out of my qld in favor of more short positions and naked calls
(12:16 PM) aszag: We still may may rally some next week as much as 50 ndx before the kill which again could be after options exp
(12:19 PM) ssny2004: XLF gap filled
(12:20 PM) ssny2004: GS is not participating in the rally
(12:20 PM) Docqb: gee, that's weird
(12:21 PM) ssny2004: doc are you being sarcastic?
tomthetrader: let's examine
tomthetrader: where we are
tomthetrader: together we have to do our best to beat the market
(12:23 PM) ssny2004: sticksaves have gotten less effective, this one lasted one day
(12:23 PM) ssny2004: Paulson will be more careful with timing next time
(12:24 PM) ssny2004: WM could be a black swan event
(12:24 PM) ssny2004: i really see no positive news to offset
(12:24 PM) ssny2004: so any rally is bs imo
tomthetrader: everyone follos their own strategies and uses this Chat as anoutlet to help them perform better so no one ..even me should steer anyones rights to their opinions or longs or shorts or highs and lows ...we are here to get better and to make some money long short or ac / dc !
(12:25 PM) ssny2004: ditto Tom, my opinions only, i would love to hear bullish case right now I see none
(12:25 PM) pupster1: yeah guys....don't listen to me or follow my picks.
(12:26 PM) pupster1: these are only my opinions.
(12:26 PM) ssny2004: the consumer will not lead us except into a ditch lol
(12:26 PM) ssny2004: would love to hear bullish rebuttal
(12:27 PM) ssny2004: short term sentiment is only mildly bearish
(12:27 PM) ssny2004: longer term only moderately bearish
(12:27 PM) Docqb: geez, breadth negative 8 to 1 on nyse
(12:27 PM) ssny2004: Vix at 26
(12:28 PM) Docqb: let's ask a different question
(12:28 PM) Docqb: opinions on how many more banks fail ?
(12:28 PM) berniectx: 15-30
(12:29 PM) berniectx: just guessing
(12:29 PM) billb1947: if the market crashes, a lot of banks go down??
(12:29 PM) Docqb: i believe i heard earlier if a bank like WB failed, FDIC would be wiped out
(12:29 PM) csu30: ssny, what do you mean WM as a black swan event?
(12:30 PM) billb1947: that's ok, uncle Ben will bail them out with Doc's taxes
(12:30 PM) Docqb: rofl
(12:30 PM) Docqb: now that's funny....
(12:31 PM) billb1947: that'll be a blank check for FDIC
(12:31 PM) thomas_Poland: ok have to go for two hours
(12:31 PM) thomas_Poland: keep this market up
(12:31 PM) thomas_Poland: I have my stop for my last long set
(12:31 PM) Docqb: but good point bill, poor management is one thing, but geez, they were using tax payor money to buy cocaine
(12:31 PM) billb1947: y
(12:31 PM) thomas_Poland: I will free myself from this position and will trade both directions later
(12:32 PM) Docqb: ut oh, mkt rolling over
(12:32 PM) Docqb: what was the high ?
(12:32 PM) Docqb: was on a call
(12:33 PM) ssny2004: black swan ... black monday... crash
(12:33 PM) ssny2004: Doc come on, just buy LEH
(12:33 PM) Docqb: i don't see a crash, but i do see a big down day soon
(12:34 PM) Docqb: did everyone see the last red candle on the chart for the month of sept ?
(12:35 PM) Docqb: a few of his friends are going to show up soon
(12:35 PM) ssny2004: i am keeping powder dry for any manipulative strategies
(12:35 PM) ssny2004: WB is the next LEH WM imo
(12:36 PM) Docqb: i wouldn't be surprised
(12:36 PM) Docqb: ok, we just closed all the clinics
(12:36 PM) Docqb: more evacuations
(12:36 PM) Docqb: ya'll have to listen to me all day
(12:37 PM) berniectx: how do you see the day ending Doc?
(12:37 PM) ssny2004: SKF heading to the races?
(12:38 PM) ssny2004: I am straddling short & cash
(12:38 PM) Docqb: either a patriotic attempt to hold the line, or throw in the towel and begin the cascade
(12:38 PM) ssny2004: hedgies would sell their first born for a profitable trade it seems
(12:38 PM) Docqb: either way, doesn't matter, fundamentals and technicals point
(12:39 PM) ssny2004: yes agree
(12:39 PM) DE_TTT: Cramer just added WB to his Fortress Four (JPM, USB, WFC, BAC)...what could possibly go wrong?
(12:39 PM) ssny2004: are you serious? that is GREAT!!!!
(12:39 PM) Docqb: distributional selling under the cover of sector rotation
(12:40 PM) ssny2004: short each of those 4
(12:40 PM) Docqb: that's what I see ?
(12:41 PM) Docqb: see, sorry accidental question mark
(12:41 PM) DE_TTT: Yes, SS...on Monday
(12:42 PM) ssny2004: dont want to wait for the extra 10 pts up and miss down move, have cash on sidelines to add
(12:42 PM) ssny2004: starting to think like Tom
(12:43 PM) ssny2004: was thinking last night that I have learnt so much from TTT that will last a lifetime
(12:43 PM) Docqb: have been scaling in on qid
(12:43 PM) Docqb: and shorting other stocks on strength
(12:43 PM) nimesh_: we might get q more leg up after this pull back
(12:43 PM) nimesh_: on q's
(12:44 PM) nimesh_: 50% retracment is 42.75
(12:45 PM) nimesh_: anybody here know eilliot wave
(12:45 PM) ssny2004: CRM has been a bad pick - think hedge funds owned this short
(12:46 PM) DE_TTT: Was added to SP500, ss
(12:46 PM) DE_TTT: Replaced FRE
(12:46 PM) ssny2004: yeah bad luck, really think this pig is a 20 stock next earnings
(12:46 PM) ssny2004: selling at 80PE
(12:47 PM) ssny2004: we have seen that high PE story
tomthetrader: 1230 cash SPX
(1:01 PM) Docqb: just checked around a few blogs, everyone watching 1200
(1:01 PM) TraderTim: hey doc what are some good blogs you watch
(1:02 PM) Docqb: finviz is a good one, lots of good stuff
(1:03 PM) TraderTim: thx
(1:04 PM) Docqb: they have like a message board/blog, good for news, technicals, education stuff
(1:05 PM) billb1947: DIE bulls!
(1:05 PM) nimesh_: trin still showing buying
(1:07 PM) TraderTim: Tom, this pattern looks so familiar except we are SHORT it this time. This seems right given backdrop. Time will tell.
(1:07 PM) nimesh_: tank tank tank
(1:08 PM) nimesh_: what u guys think, 1 more leg up, and then down we go?
(1:09 PM) nimesh_: q's back testing wedge
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Wednesday, September 10, 2008


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Monday, September 8, 2008


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Sunday, September 7, 2008

HERE GOES TTT AGAIN ....Please Join Us Today ?

tomthetrader: well we will keep our CORE positions ...but we have some 300 contracts at different fills QQQLS QQQIQ nearly 450 contracts long
tomthetrader: the news on the financials was huge and the futures look to be higher
tomthetrader: ES U8 [10] E-MINI S&P 500 Sep '08 16:22:09 EDT 1,241.00 s 4.50 1,236.50 1,245.25 1,216.50
tomthetrader: 1245.00 high
tomthetrader: XLF really blew off then FRE and FNM down
(7:02 PM) pupster: kicking myself for seeing this downdraft and stying long like a scmuck. Was short QCOM and AMGN for 2 weeks and let them go for chump change while I knew they would break down from those highs and their patterns. aaargh.
tomthetrader: Yes ..I only know of a few happy traders this week and they are all on slope of hope .com
tomthetrader: I was 100% short 1 week ago !
tomthetrader: Oh well
tomthetrader: we bounced back
(7:03 PM) pupster: yeah....oh well.
tomthetrader: let's get a good set up for next week and make a ton /
tomthetrader: I was happy I made it clear to BUY BUY BUY 1222 this morning
tomthetrader: we had 3 great buying opps all worked well...we should make a ton long Monday !

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Saturday, September 6, 2008


(8:03 AM) TraderTim: Yep FULK, really bad news could already be discounted
tomthetrader: 1000 at 58.41

We Bought 10ES contracts at 1222.00 calling the bottom sold at 1242.00

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Thursday, September 4, 2008


We got whacked today ..no doubt about it ..we are in a BEAR MARKET ...Now let's see how we perform from here on out.

Congrats all you Bears !

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Research In Motion Limited (USA) RIMM 107.49 -7.29 (-6.35%) 60.68B 28.17M 113.68 115.102 107.36
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Intl Business Machines Corp. IBM 115.00 -3.34 (-2.82%) 155.81B 10.10M 117.99 118.9 114.9
Technology SPDR (ETF) XLK 21.52* -0.80 (-3.58%) 2.94B 8.90M 22.15 22.17 21.48

Wednesday, September 3, 2008


tomthetrader: commercual real estate slowing
tomthetrader: tighter lending standards
(2:00 PM) thomas_Poland: how can they read the whole book in few seconds??????
(2:00 PM) thomas_Poland: It always amazes me
tomthetrader: inflation
tomthetrader: elevated
tomthetrader: higher selling prices
tomthetrader: wages OK
tomthetrader: slowing price gains
tomthetrader: good news
tomthetrader: exports slowing
tomthetrader: cap ex mixed
tomthetrader: markets do not like the news
(2:02 PM) thomas_Poland: I always like when they react against me
(2:02 PM) thomas_Poland: but now always happy after few hours
(2:05 PM) ajayvee: that was some whipsaw
(2:05 PM) thomas_Poland: now 200 sma
(2:06 PM) thomas_Poland: I hate 200 sma
(2:06 PM) thomas_Poland: die bears!
(2:06 PM) berniectx: XLF seems to be lagging a bit
(2:06 PM) billb1947: nq still a LONG way below the 200sma
(2:07 PM) Michael TTT: y
(2:07 PM) mickymax_ttt: yy
(2:07 PM) ajayvee: y
(2:07 PM) billb1947: y
(2:07 PM) csu30: y
(2:07 PM) PhotosbyDill: y
(2:07 PM) les13436: y
(2:07 PM) tradster_ny: y
(2:07 PM) Docqb: i never have liked the beige book
(2:07 PM) berniectx: y
(2:09 PM) Fulkdaddy: One of the best GM dealerships in CA is down 50% yoy due to extremely tight leasing.
(2:10 PM) Fulkdaddy: Toyota is self financed so they can keep leasing. GMAC is in deep trouble
(2:10 PM) Fulkdaddy: therefore, it could really hurt GM here.
(2:12 PM) thomas_Poland: yes
(2:12 PM) berniectx: I'm waiting with Thomas 1264
(2:12 PM) billb1947: me too
(2:13 PM) thomas_Poland: LOL
(2:13 PM) thomas_Poland: I prefer when you are short boys
(2:14 PM) billb1947: thomas-it'll never, ever get to 1264
(2:14 PM) thomas_Poland: but right now I hope it will go to 1264 but tomorrow
(2:14 PM) thomas_Poland: not today
tomthetrader: ABXIF at 2.15
tomthetrader: bought 20 contracts
tomthetrader: for a hedge
(2:21 PM) thomas_Poland: ok
(2:22 PM) RV_trader: RIMM new LOD
tomthetrader: yes ..can't find the bottom RV ...any ideas /
tomthetrader: RUT still +
tomthetrader: 1820.00 NDX we will buy 3 more NQ contracts
(2:31 PM) Fulkdaddy: Tom, why do you think we go down here...before resuming uptrend?
tomthetrader: Just the hedge funds have the ball now and should sell stocksto replenish their ailing oil trades ...and "heavies" trade ...just a guess but I think "smart" money from 3-4pm should bring us back ...but ?
tomthetrader: it is typical of this market
tomthetrader: pattern hedge fund activity is pretty easy to track
tomthetrader: but one can never tell
(2:35 PM) nimesh_: it's like watching paint dry here
tomthetrader: hopefully they will be forced to BUY equities but for the short term until we get some levels in commodities it could be whipsaw city
(2:36 PM) Fulkdaddy: Kass: Materials and Energy Heading for a Bottom? "For the materials and energy sectors, early September is now looking very much like mid-July was for the banks."
tomthetrader: quite a statement ..banksare up about 50% on avg
tomthetrader: did you see GS statement ? Dave /
(2:39 PM) Fulkdaddy: no
tomthetrader: GS says buy commodity stocks and energy and GARP in tech bio semis
tomthetrader: so similar call as dougie
tomthetrader: IBM IBM IBM IBM IBM
(2:40 PM) Fulkdaddy: some believe GS call of $150 oil may hurt their earnings performance as they were most likely long oil this qrt
(2:41 PM) Fulkdaddy: qtr
tomthetrader: they and LEH kinda retracted that call saying that avg pricesshould be 105 but a SPIKE to 150 is possible !
tomthetrader: LEH and GS covering tracks and GS would short their Moms' for a nickle
tomthetrader: and a commission '
tomthetrader: HGX BKX
tomthetrader: HGX BKX
tomthetrader: RTH
tomthetrader: all been on fire since July 15th
tomthetrader: XLF up today in down market ...rare
tomthetrader: TOL after hours
tomthetrader: June 30th bottom in housing next year Cramer says
tomthetrader: I say it is in and will continue
tomthetrader: bottom in
(2:48 PM) tradster_ny: URE?
tomthetrader: yes
(2:49 PM) csu30: Yesterday's volume was below 50 DMA average and today's looks below avg too - some folks still on vacation?
(2:50 PM) wclegg: 1265.59
(2:50 PM) ajayvee: 1265.59
(2:50 PM) csu30: 1265.59
tomthetrader: we could have a pretty good rally very very soon
(2:53 PM) Fulkdaddy: minutes or days?
tomthetrader: so if you have some cash ...you may want to add to futures or options
tomthetrader: seconds /
tomthetrader: minutes
tomthetrader: hours ?
tomthetrader: nothing goes for days does it /
tomthetrader: but the condition is wound pretty tight
tomthetrader: and it may pop at anytime
tomthetrader: 100 down could mean 100 up
tomthetrader: there is 'tension on the tape'
(2:56 PM) csu30: NASDAQ sitting on its lower BB
tomthetrader: they are clobberrring it
tomthetrader: RUT hanging on
(3:10 PM) berniectx: someone got out of there cage!
tomthetrader: lot of tension on the tape
tomthetrader: volume UP UP UP
(3:13 PM) Fulkdaddy: Buy here, TOm?
tomthetrader: YES
tomthetrader: YES YES
(3:15 PM) Fulkdaddy: Long NQ's
(3:15 PM) billb1947: long nq
(3:15 PM) TraderTim: Longer NQs
(3:17 PM) thomas_Poland: die bears
(3:17 PM) billb1947: holy sh..
(3:19 PM) thomas_Poland: what bill?
(3:20 PM) Fulkdaddy: We had a quick drop Thomas
(3:21 PM) thomas_Poland: and Bill just got heart attack?
(3:22 PM) youngamerican68_1: anyone who has there stops at LOD may be very angry here
(3:23 PM) thomas_Poland: in two days we will see 2195
(3:23 PM) thomas_Poland: 1295
(3:23 PM) thomas_Poland: hehe
(3:23 PM) TraderTim: I kept stops off as per Tom
(3:23 PM) thomas_Poland: 200 sma
(3:23 PM) thomas_Poland: now
(3:24 PM) berniectx: very quick action here!!
(3:24 PM) thomas_Poland: I will stop draw this average on my charts
(3:24 PM) thomas_Poland: maybe they will not make problems
(3:25 PM) billb1947: almost made 1264
(3:25 PM) thomas_Poland: almost
(3:25 PM) thomas_Poland: I have order in to buy
(3:26 PM) billb1947: me 2
(3:26 PM) thomas_Poland: but if we finish somewhere here I will get this at night or in the morning?
(3:27 PM) nimesh_: thanks helli, makes sense
(3:28 PM) nimesh_: wong window, sorry
(3:30 PM) thomas_Poland: really ... I will start to buy trading strategy around only 200 sma
(3:30 PM) thomas_Poland: on 5 min chart
(3:30 PM) thomas_Poland: nimesh .. stop using porn paltalk rooms and trade for money
tomthetrader: very active trade
tomthetrader: pulled off 16 trades in lesss than 10 minutes on YM '
tomthetrader: pretty amazing
(3:33 PM) berniectx: wow hope all good
tomthetrader: fortunately
tomthetrader: we did get positive YM 2x
(3:33 PM) berniectx: would not think otherwise with the maestro!!
tomthetrader: as long as 1265 holds now
tomthetrader: we should have shaken both Bulls and Bears
(3:34 PM) TraderTim: they have everyone shaking
tomthetrader: everyone see what exactly happened in that market ..and why we should print this chat and read and study charts /
(3:35 PM) berniectx: yes...
(3:35 PM) thomas_Poland: no ?
(3:35 PM) thomas_Poland: explain Tom
tomthetrader: we built up the classic "tension" on the tape that had to blow ...traders had Billions flowing in Fast FAST market conditions that really only the insane can handle or the very lucky
(3:36 PM) thomas_Poland: really I think I know but want to hear it from the masta himself
(3:36 PM) thomas_Poland: or very good Tom .. like us
(3:36 PM) thomas_Poland:
(3:36 PM) berniectx: or the TTT crowd
(3:36 PM) thomas_Poland: you see?
tomthetrader: LEH +
(3:36 PM) thomas_Poland: we even think the same
tomthetrader: Banks
(3:37 PM) thomas_Poland: Tom .. what is cassic 'tension' on the tape?
(3:37 PM) thomas_Poland: forking 200 sma !
(3:37 PM) thomas_Poland: I'm mad
tomthetrader: GILD calls anyone buy the GDQKJ ?
tomthetrader: 10 contracts long ES in Main Fund traded for gains6 ES up
tomthetrader: 3k
(3:40 PM) TraderTim: I am slowly unloading
(3:41 PM) Fulkdaddy: No wonder the market stopped going up!
(3:42 PM) thomas_Poland: 15 min to go to 1290
(3:43 PM) TraderTim: the LULL
tomthetrader: me too
tomthetrader: classic tension on the tape
tomthetrader: we will discuss
(3:45 PM) TraderTim: amazing
(3:45 PM) TraderTim: you have to tell us what is happening when it is over
(3:45 PM) TraderTim: it froze
tomthetrader: and you guys will all feel this one day as well as i do
(3:45 PM) berniectx: you are probably exhausted Tom!
tomthetrader: like knowing you are in the right fishing spot
(3:45 PM) erndog9: been in meetings. trying to figure out what is going on. Expecting a move up now from here Tom???
(3:47 PM) thomas_Poland: When we will discuss?
(3:47 PM) thomas_Poland: I guess this tension is still there .. right on 200 sma
(3:48 PM) erndog9: I see 200 ma at 1280 on 5 mm chart???
(3:48 PM) thomas_Poland: and I on 1274
(3:48 PM) thomas_Poland: 1273
(3:49 PM) berniectx: Pickens on Bloomberg oil to rise over $150 within year
(3:49 PM) csu30: 60 minute VIX MACD crossing down (mkt should go up); new high ticks (>1,000) @3:40
(3:49 PM) TraderTim: Pickens may be right due to "Peak Oil" but a lot can happen during that year
(3:50 PM) berniectx: yes plus he is selling his "plan"
tomthetrader: Craig ...tracking spx /
(3:52 PM) berniectx: AD positive +13
(3:52 PM) csu30: Harbinger of things to come, hopefully
tomthetrader: YM I am about done with for this year !
tomthetrader: wow
tomthetrader: OK ...so lets talk
(3:54 PM) syzygy111: y
(3:54 PM) csu30: y
(3:54 PM) Grey Guru: y
(3:54 PM) erndog9: y
(3:54 PM) ajayvee: y
(3:54 PM) aszager: y
(3:54 PM) brownmj21: y
(3:54 PM) infos2: y
(3:54 PM) TraderTim: y
(3:54 PM) PhotosbyDill: y
(3:54 PM) thomas_Poland: y
(3:54 PM) berniectx: y
(3:54 PM) Michael TTT: yes
(3:54 PM) gerry204: y
(3:54 PM) billb1947: y
(3:54 PM) les13436: y
(3:54 PM) breadman8401: y
(3:55 PM) erndog9: still 100% long?
(3:56 PM) erndog9: thx
(3:56 PM) Fulkdaddy: Yes long at 1826.75
(3:56 PM) TraderTim: Oh yeh . .
(3:57 PM) aszager: bought qld at 71.05
(3:57 PM) TraderTim: did everything but YM (ES/NQ/ER2)
(3:57 PM) thomas_Poland: Tom you are the best !!!
(3:57 PM) thomas_Poland:
(3:57 PM) TraderTim: the LULL was palatable
(3:58 PM) thomas_Poland: Tom did you just say something about tension on the tape?
(3:58 PM) thomas_Poland: and I missed it ?
(3:58 PM) thomas_Poland: And you did not make sure i'm listening?
(3:59 PM) thomas_Poland: I'm mad on TTT
(3:59 PM) thomas_Poland:
(3:59 PM) youngamerican68_1: tension=fear?
(3:59 PM) thomas_Poland: tomorrow 1290
(4:00 PM) thomas_Poland: I'm calling
(4:01 PM) thomas_Poland: Tom I missed you lesson about Tension on the tape
(4:01 PM) billb1947: thomas-he said it was a feeling-without a signal
(4:02 PM) thomas_Poland: so I feel tension on the tape all the time
(4:02 PM) erndog9: uyg a buy???
(4:03 PM) erndog9: too late??? for uyg?
(4:05 PM) youngamerican68_1: Thomas can we get a rundown of current trader's positions
(4:06 PM) thomas_Poland: a minute
(4:07 PM) billb1947: probably not good to hold long before ADP??
(4:08 PM) Michael TTT: So does the tension relieve itself up or down???
(4:08 PM) thomas_Poland: 1000 QLD at 73.75; 1000 QLD at 72.85; 2 NQ long at 1851; 50 QQQLS at 3.06; 40 QQQLS at 3.02; 60 QQQLS at 2.92; 100 QQQLS at 2.81
(4:09 PM) Michael TTT: Think the trend up for next day or two??
(4:09 PM) thomas_Poland: 25 GDQKJ at 3.90; 30 KHQJW at 1.68
(4:09 PM) thomas_Poland: 3 NQ long at 1831
(4:09 PM) thomas_Poland: 20 ABXIF at 2.15
(4:09 PM) thomas_Poland: 3 NQ long at 1820
(4:10 PM) thomas_Poland: That is all!
(4:10 PM) thomas_Poland: Tomorrow 1290!
(4:10 PM) thomas_Poland:
(4:11 PM) thomas_Poland: sound weak TTT?
(4:11 PM) thomas_Poland:
(4:11 PM) thomas_Poland: come on!
(4:11 PM) berniectx: Tom get your rest...you are the best!!!
(4:12 PM) thomas_Poland: Bernie 'people' from Mars do not need to rest!
(4:12 PM) thomas_Poland:
(4:12 PM) berniectx: true..get the diet coke and watch CNBC
(4:13 PM) thomas_Poland: better watch '24 hours'
(4:13 PM) thomas_Poland:
(4:13 PM) DE_TTT: News coming out of Citigroup Tech Conf was generally cautious....hurt Q's today
(4:13 PM) pupster1: UYG looks good to me against yesterday and todays lows if you're willing to risk that much. Weekly looks good as it looks as if it's coming out of a Bullish Wedge.
(4:15 PM) DE_TTT: I like SMH for a snapback here, though...ridiculously oversold
(4:16 PM) DE_TTT: Citi Tech tomorrow may be a bit more upbeat...HPQ, IBM, QCOM, MSFT
(4:16 PM) DE_TTT: Tomorrow
(4:17 PM) thomas_Poland: how do you know that long term smart money?
(4:17 PM) thomas_Poland: volume?
(4:17 PM) DE_TTT: IBM lunch keynote, MSFT late afternoon keynote, HPQ at 9:15am, Qcom at 1:45pm
(4:19 PM) thomas_Poland: thanks
(4:20 PM) Michael TTT: Thanks Tom.
(4:20 PM) pointfisher: Thanks Tom
(4:20 PM) DE_TTT: Thanks, T
tomthetrader: Thank you
tomthetrader: I am just a fat old man talking war stories to himself without you guys
tomthetrader: I appreciate the opportunity to share my bits of knowledge and experience with you
tomthetrader: Good day TTT out
(4:22 PM) TraderTim: You are the best Sir Tom!!!!
tomthetrader: Thanks Tim
tomthetrader: hope we are OK

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Tuesday, September 2, 2008


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