Saturday, December 31, 2011


Happy New Year !

I wanted to place a basic chart of what 2011 looked like without too much fanfare as 2011 does not deserve much ! I will go into several main categories of what evolved in 2011 before we send out the data of big wins and heroic trades. Simple fact is TTT Hedge worked extremely hard for every 1% we got and it was not a easy year. We are so lucky to have so many tools at our disposal...our Charts run by Marlin Cobb ( Red) are groundbreaking as is his research and development of indicators proven by a Tradestation @ Award for 2011. I am very lucky to be able to have a gift of seeing talent and Red is one of the greatest gifts TTT Hedge has and we are thankful.

Before I go into 2011 I also wanted to point out Cathy Cullen our Professional day trader in the Traders Live ! room. I have been lucky enough to watch her continue to grow as a Trader and the room has reaped millions of dollars in profits thanks to her daily efforts that improve each month. Cathy will be giving a free webinar in early January and I hope you all can attend ! And finally Jay22 whom tirelessly without complaint does our forensic accounting of every trade made in our @ 4 stage system of profit taking. He is a blessing to all whom want integrity in the results and honesty 24/7 , we also have Jay in our prayers as he lost a loved one over the Holidays and hope his family a speedy return to a great 2012 !

Now on to the sections I want to cover for 2011 , I know it is in the past but as they say about history , we at TTT do not want to repeat any mistakes from 2011. So here goes with my recap.

1) Here , using the chart above we can basically go over what we predicted , what I am saying at the time and bring us into 2012. As everyone knows we finished UNCH for 2011 but 92% of institutions from hedge funds to banks and mutual funds LOST MONEY ! The largest since 2008 and 2000. I had predicted a 25% decline in 2011 ( Check ) but thought it would occur early in the year. I said in FEBRUARY that we had peaked in the MINI Bull that started March 9 2009 and would correct 25%. As the "Arab Spring" arose the market kept getting frothier and finally on May 2nd (Bin Laden Top) was put in as the event ended the Bull and started a New Bear market.

At the top the market was up over 125% in over 2 years and European worries of Sovereign DEBT especially GREECE was a day to day worry....Greece in my opinion got too much attention and is the least of our problems...just my opinion. So we hit a top in sentiment in the Bull in February and PRICE topped out on the killing of the worst living creature on May 2nd. The Bear Market had begun !

After a poor month of May for the Bulls , June was even worse as the Arab uprisings and DEBT issues worldwide combined with the dramatic slowdown from the historic Tsunami in Japan that had Tech companies and all suppliers looking for was a tough time and many "Gurus" really launched into a double dip mode spectacular ! I was beginning to get my Bullish legs back and took on the naysayers especially the ECRI as they sent to clients only a 100% recession prediction ....never occurred and won't but I literally saw 0% chance of a double dip and had hopes of a quick rebound but the JULY 4th Failure made it clear we were in a Bear market and we had to go day to day until we saw a bottom.

THE CRASH OF 2011 : Eerily similar to 1987 we were set up for disaster as sentiment never really died down and Money managers especially kept a 80% long portfolio and heavy buying of beaten up banks , famed analyst David Tepper amongst others went long ...turning out to be disastrous for many as the BEAR unleashed as GREECE , CHINA , EUROPE and pretty much the world feared another depression and we logged some of the most historic data as we had the "waterfall decline" of the now famous 15 trading days of late July and early August which I missed most of due to health problems , I didn't lose any money but lost a Gall Bladder and years of sleep ! Too much information no doubt but as our Traders Live members I am sure will was some of the most memorable action ever in US stock market history as the internals will go down as the worst since the 30's.

As a Bull by trade I got a SENTIMENT low ( Time to load up and wait for price) and a TTT Buy signal both our patented 5 day and a mean reversion at August OPEX. The rally was good and with Labor Day approaching I was hoping for a follow thru but another failure occurred in early September that set up reason to believe we were going to new lows and since the Bear was one that had actually LOW RATES and a Good Monetary model...I knew we would have a very short Bear market and called a absolutely perfect bottom of all areas of the market with a Major CYCLICAL LOW and a Yearly High in VIX and shorted VIX and Got leveraged long from there and have stayed mostly leveraged long since.

The miserable action in November set up a huge question mark as now we had Zero lack of confidence in leaders worldwide and actually of the system which again had the Bears shouting 2x Dip even though all the US eco-data was strong ? GDP went .5% -1.5% -2.5% and I had been predicting all year a 3.5% GDP for our 4th quarter just ended...I think we get no Recession....and again a strong rally featuring the most TTT Buy signals in a short time since I began tracking in 1982.

That led us to repeated attempts at 1300 SPX all of which failed into the last day of 2011 ! I still believe we are in a NEW BULL that is just up 20% from the lows and will go another 40-60% by the time it ends with no more than a 8-10% correction.


This next section will take into account WHY I think we are here and what I think here is !

1) Lack of confidence ...The world has lost faith in the systems to make money via the capital markets which is why GOLD had the parabolic run it did. No faith in anything but a bar of metal ...currencies were all shaken due to Massive debt and the rumor of the day on new bank failures and not only banks but countries. We had zero political leadership worldwide , China was / is only caring about China...Europe is wallowing in self destructive governments that believe they can work 30 hours 200 days a year and be allowed a great retirement...this along with The US Housing debacle made every banker every country leery of doing business with each other and you may call the 2011 year a year of 100% mistrust in one another and this lack of confidence led to really a spectacular failure in stocks and funds especially in emerging markets...if not for the USA worker and our perseverance as entrepreneurial spirit it could have been much worse.

We did lose Steve Jobs this year who in essence saved the year with the most stellar stock action gadgets and earnings growth...we will miss him but AAPL lives on as still one of the best companies ever listed ...ever and Mr. Jobs with all of his faults a Edisonian like presence still to end our lack of confidence segment...we hope the spirit of the AAPL CEO lives on " Your time is limited so don't waste it living someone else's life ".

2) EUROZONE : The gift that keeps on giving (For the Bears )

My official view is that when all is said and done (2013) we will look back and say "All that time and worry wasted ". The EURO itself is like a Spring Chicken....considering it's history it is amazing it has endured it's infancy but here we are ...some say at the brink. Led By Greece, Italy and Spain ... their massive debt and inability for the world to let them off the hook has led to some of the most dramatic TALKS but until last week , very little action. The ECB and IMF both have had periods of ignorance and self loathing...which has led the herd of naysayers to short the Hell out of the banks ...which leads me too on of our most profitable OPTIONS ALERTS plays of 2011 DB DEUTSCH BANK. ( Promo for our Options Alert service !)

Yes the EURO ZONE is entering recession but my view is very shallow as the US and China keep the balance and the Draconian austerity measures especially by Great Britain lead other countries not just to VOW BUT DO ! The USA could take notice of the UK effort and demand a balanced budget by 2013 but let's stay away from POLITICS as we will have plenty into November 6th 2012 as your VOTE will count and the heads of the folks in Washington from the President to local councils and Judges will be shaken to start doing the right thing for America... " Ask not what your country can do for you Ask what you can do for your country" ...yes some JFK would do us baby boomers whom complain about government and their taxes ?

The worst case scenario is a drop of 1-2 countries from the EURO if they do not jump on board the new and improved actions...(watch yields on Italian and Spanish bonds) as the ECB does the same thing the USA has and continues to do ...print Money and buy Bonds. In short , I am thinking much less about Europe and much more about our next section.

3) China : What Are They Really Up to ?

A massive Crash caused by property values , illegal accounting and slow growth. Join Jim Chanos the famed short who right now is grinning ear to ear as his trade to Short CHINA is very productive...personally I have tried like many to catch bottoms in FXI BIDU and many China related vehicles only to see new lows. We have not been Helped by China nor have we been hurt but I will tell you one thing....If the military buildup and the continuing raising of reserve requirements continues another year....we will be wishing we were Mr. Chanos but I also believe last week China may have made a bottom in it's Bear market so if we look at it this way ....If China has the best interests of it's people at heart ( Do communists have heart ? ) China will be a huge positive again into 2013. Inflation is China and India's worst enemy and it is dropping as they both cool but lack of resources will haunt this huge populations forever so we need to play the resources to FEED and Cloth and Warm those Massive economies...CHINA is a BUY here in 2012....not with all you got but like a Speculative stock ..1-3% OF YOUR PORTFOLIO...perfect play TDF Templeton is the best !

Finally if we can stop the accusations and China finally can handle the truth as a currency manipulator and pirate of our tech and patented goods...we will all be better off...we need China but not as bad as we need China to be a ally...for now ...keep an eye on them , but make sure we do not cross them off as they are the world's 2nd largest economy. Speaking of poor accounting rules ...this leads me to our markets and the SEC FTC etc...


It is too bad but yes , the individual investor Died and may he R.I.P. The computers took control as the SEC allowed the 3X ETF world and Black Pools and untraceable MF Global Funds to highlight a year of some of the most disappointing Federal Government inaction ever. People scream about a lot in government but look at our SEC ? Ms Shapiro is the most ineffective leader (sorry) we have seen and she gets worse bowing to anyone who can keep the status quo status ? I have taken my concerns to the SEC and their divisions and hope that change will of the last trading day of 2011 a unreal 71.9% of all trades made in 2011 were buy HFT style algos and it doesn’t seem to end as the SEC has ruled the "No tick " rule as a dinoasaur ( even though it has now been sited as the cause with housing) of the 2008 stock market Crashes. If the nonsense continues in 2012...there will be action taken or inaction as pensions and Ira's are subject to go to cash FOREVER ...this knocks out a trillion dollar we want that ?

As Traders we adjust miraculously in 2011 , thanks to Cathy and our members even I was able to adopt some day trade rules and strategies that were 88% + successful and led us to some massive gains in our 1-5 day traders account !

My wish for 2012 ...simple : A new "No Tick " Rule and a moratorium on ETF's and any ETF with less than 1 million volume per day must hang it up ...delist...get the money back into STOCKS and out of ETF's or all our careers may be shortened ! Speaking of short careers ...if our 3 worst trades of 2011 were our only we would be ....not here !





Enough said !

6) Finally my last words on where we sit right now and the next e-mails will give details of our portfolios and services results and they will be staggering !

I firmly believe we are in a NEW BULL MARKET that began October 4th and is up about 20% since the lows. I expect a pick up in action this week to at least clear 1300 SPX but then get set for some earnings misses and a rise in VIX in Mid January into February , but the 1075 level on SPX cash will not be broken in my lifetime !

I am confident we are in a LONGER more drawn out period of a Bull...maybe even a Secular Bull ? I want to put my sites on 1410 SPX cash for the end of 2012 and look forward to a recovery in emerging markets.

Again my Target for year end is 1410 cash SPX 2012 and I do not think we will ever go under 1075 again !

I will update you all with a separate e-mail with my top 20 stocks. Top Sectors and ideas on takeovers in 2012 ...I hope you enjoyed this missive and look forward to a lot more over the weekend.

May the New Year Bring You Health and Great Times With Family !

God Bless You !



Happy New Year !

If the week heading into New Years day is weaker that The week earlier be prepared for a launch by the Bulls ,We have a extremely Rare Bullish setup going into 2012 so take a membership here today and get my 2012 top 20 stocks ETF;s and takeover plays and how you can make 15% NEXT week. Last week we made 100% on Spy 119.00 calls this week QQQ 55.00 Calls will double.

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Tuesday, December 27, 2011


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Saturday, December 24, 2011


Hi and Merry Christmas ,

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Tuesday, December 20, 2011


WE did take profits today after being so leveraged long ...but we are looking to reenter...join me as I try to double our money this next week or so ! SPY calls were up 100% 119.00 calls NICE


Wednesday, December 14, 2011


Good Morning. Long time readers know that I am a stout believer in the idea that there is usually a reason behind a good-sized market move. I'm not talking about 50 point swings in the Dow that can happen at any point of any day for little or no reason other than somebody clicking a button. No, I'm talking about a move of at least 1% or more (in either direction) within a short period of time - you know, something that gets your attention.

Yesterday's session had a couple/three of these moves and for the most part, the reasons behind the early moves were fairly obvious. We saw a nice pop in the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index as well as an uptick in sentiment in Germany to get things started off on the right foot. And when Angela Merkel said "nein" to the idea of increasing the size of the bailout fund, the swift dive in stock prices made sense.

However, what didn't make much sense at all was the -2.1% header the S&P 500 took after the Fed released its statement yesterday afternoon. Sure, some volatility directly before and after a Fed announcement is standard fare. And this time was no different. But then after the requisite post-announcement move, things got ugly. And then they got really ugly - all on no news. And since you know that I am obsessed with finding the "reason" behind such movements, it shouldn't surprise you to learn that shortly thereafter, I suddenly found myself on a mission.

To be sure, the Fed statement was NOT the cause of the move from 1246 to 1220 on the S&P. While I will agree that a small segment of the trading population may have been disappointed that the Fed didn't introduce any changes to their communication efforts, the Fed's announcement and accompanying statement was really a non-event.

After checking my news sources (you'd think that of the 150 news flash emails I get a day, one would have held the key) I found nothing to speak of. Frankly, I didn't think a potential ban on the use of cell phones by drivers was worthy of a big dive. And while there was a rumor that there might be a high profile downgrade near the close, nothing ever materialized. So then I really started digging.

After a search of my favorite websites and a few calls to my fellow market geeks turned up nothing (well, nothing more than the usual rumors of yet another well-timed downgrade by S&P - don't get me started), I started looking at charts. And before long the answer became obvious - the Euro was in the process of falling off of a cliff.

While the macro guys/gals were explaining that it was disappointment over the inability of EU leaders to get a handle on this crisis that was the cause of the Euro's strife and that it was the economic outlook for the Eurozone that was the source of the stock market's sudden ills, I felt that there could be other forces at work. You see, a falling Euro means a rising dollar. And what does a rising dollar mean? Yep that's right, the unwinding of dollar carry trades.

Lest we forget "carry trades" are a big deal in the global macro hedge fund world. The way this trade works is a fund will borrow (or short) dollars and invest the proceeds in risk assets. With rates at 0% in the U.S., this works out really well. Until the dollar starts to rise, that is. If the dollar starts to surge, your short dollar trade begins to struggle. So what do you do? You buy dollars to cover your short and sell the risk assets. So, with the Euro breaking down yesterday and the dollar moving to the highest level in nearly a year, the dollar-carry trade may have been on the run.

Normally, a rising dollar would be a good thing for U.S. investors. After all, a rising dollar is indicative of economic strength - even if that strength is only relative. But in this case, there probably wasn't much thinking going on. No, my guess is that yesterday's "reason" for the quick loss of 2% for the S&P had more to do with math wizards and their computerized trades driven by algorithms than any macro view or economic strategy. And from where I sit, this is just plain sad.

So, is there a reason for big moves these days? I say yes. But whether or not the reason makes any sense to anyone except the big wigs on Wall Street is a question for another day.

Monday, December 12, 2011

TTT BUY SIGNAL AT 1210 SPX CASH Targets 1300

Hi ,

Just a few points from TTT as we go into the last 14 trading sessions
of the year. Right now we are UNCH on the year , even the Dow being up
versus inflation is NOT a good year...but we have 14 trading sessions
left and even with the implosion of VIX on Friday...there is still
lots of 200-300 point gains and losses left in 2011 ! I wanted to just
give a brief description of what I saw for this year and what I see
for next.

Last year I forecasted a 25% decline in the market BUT I thought it
would be in the 1st half not into Fall. I said the market would reach
1355 SPX cash at years end ...we touched it on the last day of April
and now we are looking for it again ! We did ... in my opinion reach a
Sentiment Top in February and a Price Top in April of the Bull market
that started on March 9th 2009. That "Mini Bull" took us up well over
100 % and then came back and we suffered a "Mini BEAR" market from
that February-April to our Cycle low of 1075 on Oct 4th where I called
the bottom and predict still we will get a 50-60% run up within 18
months i.e. March 2013. So 1500 + by march 2013 is my best read.


Over the year we have seen HFT control 70-80% of the volume so we have
literally had to become computers to be successful , many think this
is "not right' or not real investing....well , as my Mentor Dr.martin
Zweig always said "The cash spens the same all across the country !"
So whether you are able to outwit Wall Street or if you would rather
sit back and make 1% is up to you.

I personally feel strongly that we need to manage our own accounts and
be responsible with the resources we have and with all the
entitlements going down the drain for us Baby boomers I would look 2x
at your investment strategies and see if there is some room for one of
our services in your 2012 investing year. We look to these next 3
weeks as key to not only the US stock markets but the World as we are
now a 24/7 globalized economy with literally 100's of data points a
day to keep track of or someone else will beat you to the trade. We
here at TTT are looking for another great end of the year and want to
open up membership trials again January 1st 2012 to take advantage of
our market forecasting for the day trade the swing trade and the long
term trade. We are currently on a TTT mean reversion BUY signal that
should get us above 1300 SPX by Christmas.

I want to thank our loyal members and also my partner Marlin Cobb who
has worked diligently on all aspects of the market and our business
but has become a great trader and friend to all who see his efforts.

Also our Day Trade professional Cathy and our Forensic Accountant Jay
whom have worked so hard and kept integrity and professionalism to our

And finally our dozens of Webinar speakers and educators , we plan on
at least 12 more in 2012 and we will not stop trying to get anyone who
gives us a shot , the very best this profession has to offer. Take
some time and look over our plans and thoughts and we will be ready
for you soon....will you be ready for the NEW BULL that began October
4th and will last well into 2013 ? All members will get our annual
report and predictions with long stock picks and some short plays with
all the big trades and the calls for 2012...the big edition will
arrive January 1st so if you can join by then , that will be a special
bonus to new members !

Sincerely ,


Friday, December 9, 2011



Just like I said ....don't wait !


Wednesday, December 7, 2011


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Monday, December 5, 2011


Hi ,

Despite bad news we still hit higher as a change of character has occurred since I called a NEW BULL MARKET on October 4th 2011. Those whom want to know how to navigate the ups and downs can just join below and get daily e-mails with my trades and buys.

Leveraged Long

Find out what by joining today !

Tom The Trader

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Saturday, December 3, 2011


Two Possible Signals From the VIX
The drop below 30 may be bearish for now -- but bullish for 2012
Dec 2, 2011, 2:31 pm EST |
The CBOE Volatility Index (CBOE:VIX) often tells a more insightful story than the stock market itself, and now appears to be one of those times. In this case, however, it’s telling us two stories – one that concerns the days and weeks ahead, and one that may provide a preview of 2012.

First, the raw numbers. The VIX, also known as the “fear index,” spent Friday bouncing around in the 25-27 range, far below the 36 level it reached 11 sessions ago. This is great news for now, since it indicates that investors have become less concerned about Europe in recent days. But at the same time, this is also a level where the market has run into trouble during the past four months, in terms of both the VIX’s absolute level and the magnitude of the decline.

Regarding the absolute level, the VIX last traded into the mid-20s on Oct. 27 and 28. This signaled the high-water mark for the autumn rally, and it presaged a downturn of 5.2% in the S&P 500 Index during the next two trading sessions.

With respect to the size and duration of the move, the current decline in the VIX is nearing the danger zone that has signaled negative market reversals during the recent four-month period of market stress:

% Move

Aug 8 – Aug 17 48.00

Aug 19 – Aug 31 45.40

Sep 12 – Sep 16 43.18

Oct 4 – Oct 14 46.88

Oct 20 – Oct 28 36.87

Nov 25 -Dec 2 34.77

*Friday’s intraday low

From the standpoint of short-term trading, this table indicates that we’re nearing the time to take profits and get more defensive rather than ramp up on the risk.

From a longer-term perspective, however, the more important development is what happens when the VIX does make its next upward spike. At this point, 30 is the key level to watch: If the VIX can hold near or below 30 on the next market break, it may be a signal that it’s time to get more bullish.

The basis for this assertion is that in the past, a sustained move below 30 has signaled the beginning of extended bull market. The last two times the VIX rose above 30, stayed there for several months and then fell back into the 20s, the final move below 30 proved to be a very bullish sign. This occurred in mid-2009, confirming the post-crisis rally and setting the stage for a market upturn that lasted nearly a year. It then happened again in the third quarter of 2010, setting up the rally that persisted until the end of July of this year. Looking even further back, a similar move below 30 in 2003 signaled the end of the post-9/11 bear market and the beginning of a five-year rally in stock prices.

While the break of 30 in 2003 was a clean move, the two more recent moves were both messy processes that took a few weeks to play out. Still, the longer the VIX can hold below 30, the better the odds that 2012 will bring double-digit returns for equities.

Watch this level closely in the days and weeks ahead.

Friday, December 2, 2011

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