Saturday, December 31, 2011


Happy New Year !

I wanted to place a basic chart of what 2011 looked like without too much fanfare as 2011 does not deserve much ! I will go into several main categories of what evolved in 2011 before we send out the data of big wins and heroic trades. Simple fact is TTT Hedge worked extremely hard for every 1% we got and it was not a easy year. We are so lucky to have so many tools at our disposal...our Charts run by Marlin Cobb ( Red) are groundbreaking as is his research and development of indicators proven by a Tradestation @ Award for 2011. I am very lucky to be able to have a gift of seeing talent and Red is one of the greatest gifts TTT Hedge has and we are thankful.

Before I go into 2011 I also wanted to point out Cathy Cullen our Professional day trader in the Traders Live ! room. I have been lucky enough to watch her continue to grow as a Trader and the room has reaped millions of dollars in profits thanks to her daily efforts that improve each month. Cathy will be giving a free webinar in early January and I hope you all can attend ! And finally Jay22 whom tirelessly without complaint does our forensic accounting of every trade made in our @ 4 stage system of profit taking. He is a blessing to all whom want integrity in the results and honesty 24/7 , we also have Jay in our prayers as he lost a loved one over the Holidays and hope his family a speedy return to a great 2012 !

Now on to the sections I want to cover for 2011 , I know it is in the past but as they say about history , we at TTT do not want to repeat any mistakes from 2011. So here goes with my recap.

1) Here , using the chart above we can basically go over what we predicted , what I am saying at the time and bring us into 2012. As everyone knows we finished UNCH for 2011 but 92% of institutions from hedge funds to banks and mutual funds LOST MONEY ! The largest since 2008 and 2000. I had predicted a 25% decline in 2011 ( Check ) but thought it would occur early in the year. I said in FEBRUARY that we had peaked in the MINI Bull that started March 9 2009 and would correct 25%. As the "Arab Spring" arose the market kept getting frothier and finally on May 2nd (Bin Laden Top) was put in as the event ended the Bull and started a New Bear market.

At the top the market was up over 125% in over 2 years and European worries of Sovereign DEBT especially GREECE was a day to day worry....Greece in my opinion got too much attention and is the least of our problems...just my opinion. So we hit a top in sentiment in the Bull in February and PRICE topped out on the killing of the worst living creature on May 2nd. The Bear Market had begun !

After a poor month of May for the Bulls , June was even worse as the Arab uprisings and DEBT issues worldwide combined with the dramatic slowdown from the historic Tsunami in Japan that had Tech companies and all suppliers looking for was a tough time and many "Gurus" really launched into a double dip mode spectacular ! I was beginning to get my Bullish legs back and took on the naysayers especially the ECRI as they sent to clients only a 100% recession prediction ....never occurred and won't but I literally saw 0% chance of a double dip and had hopes of a quick rebound but the JULY 4th Failure made it clear we were in a Bear market and we had to go day to day until we saw a bottom.

THE CRASH OF 2011 : Eerily similar to 1987 we were set up for disaster as sentiment never really died down and Money managers especially kept a 80% long portfolio and heavy buying of beaten up banks , famed analyst David Tepper amongst others went long ...turning out to be disastrous for many as the BEAR unleashed as GREECE , CHINA , EUROPE and pretty much the world feared another depression and we logged some of the most historic data as we had the "waterfall decline" of the now famous 15 trading days of late July and early August which I missed most of due to health problems , I didn't lose any money but lost a Gall Bladder and years of sleep ! Too much information no doubt but as our Traders Live members I am sure will was some of the most memorable action ever in US stock market history as the internals will go down as the worst since the 30's.

As a Bull by trade I got a SENTIMENT low ( Time to load up and wait for price) and a TTT Buy signal both our patented 5 day and a mean reversion at August OPEX. The rally was good and with Labor Day approaching I was hoping for a follow thru but another failure occurred in early September that set up reason to believe we were going to new lows and since the Bear was one that had actually LOW RATES and a Good Monetary model...I knew we would have a very short Bear market and called a absolutely perfect bottom of all areas of the market with a Major CYCLICAL LOW and a Yearly High in VIX and shorted VIX and Got leveraged long from there and have stayed mostly leveraged long since.

The miserable action in November set up a huge question mark as now we had Zero lack of confidence in leaders worldwide and actually of the system which again had the Bears shouting 2x Dip even though all the US eco-data was strong ? GDP went .5% -1.5% -2.5% and I had been predicting all year a 3.5% GDP for our 4th quarter just ended...I think we get no Recession....and again a strong rally featuring the most TTT Buy signals in a short time since I began tracking in 1982.

That led us to repeated attempts at 1300 SPX all of which failed into the last day of 2011 ! I still believe we are in a NEW BULL that is just up 20% from the lows and will go another 40-60% by the time it ends with no more than a 8-10% correction.


This next section will take into account WHY I think we are here and what I think here is !

1) Lack of confidence ...The world has lost faith in the systems to make money via the capital markets which is why GOLD had the parabolic run it did. No faith in anything but a bar of metal ...currencies were all shaken due to Massive debt and the rumor of the day on new bank failures and not only banks but countries. We had zero political leadership worldwide , China was / is only caring about China...Europe is wallowing in self destructive governments that believe they can work 30 hours 200 days a year and be allowed a great retirement...this along with The US Housing debacle made every banker every country leery of doing business with each other and you may call the 2011 year a year of 100% mistrust in one another and this lack of confidence led to really a spectacular failure in stocks and funds especially in emerging markets...if not for the USA worker and our perseverance as entrepreneurial spirit it could have been much worse.

We did lose Steve Jobs this year who in essence saved the year with the most stellar stock action gadgets and earnings growth...we will miss him but AAPL lives on as still one of the best companies ever listed ...ever and Mr. Jobs with all of his faults a Edisonian like presence still to end our lack of confidence segment...we hope the spirit of the AAPL CEO lives on " Your time is limited so don't waste it living someone else's life ".

2) EUROZONE : The gift that keeps on giving (For the Bears )

My official view is that when all is said and done (2013) we will look back and say "All that time and worry wasted ". The EURO itself is like a Spring Chicken....considering it's history it is amazing it has endured it's infancy but here we are ...some say at the brink. Led By Greece, Italy and Spain ... their massive debt and inability for the world to let them off the hook has led to some of the most dramatic TALKS but until last week , very little action. The ECB and IMF both have had periods of ignorance and self loathing...which has led the herd of naysayers to short the Hell out of the banks ...which leads me too on of our most profitable OPTIONS ALERTS plays of 2011 DB DEUTSCH BANK. ( Promo for our Options Alert service !)

Yes the EURO ZONE is entering recession but my view is very shallow as the US and China keep the balance and the Draconian austerity measures especially by Great Britain lead other countries not just to VOW BUT DO ! The USA could take notice of the UK effort and demand a balanced budget by 2013 but let's stay away from POLITICS as we will have plenty into November 6th 2012 as your VOTE will count and the heads of the folks in Washington from the President to local councils and Judges will be shaken to start doing the right thing for America... " Ask not what your country can do for you Ask what you can do for your country" ...yes some JFK would do us baby boomers whom complain about government and their taxes ?

The worst case scenario is a drop of 1-2 countries from the EURO if they do not jump on board the new and improved actions...(watch yields on Italian and Spanish bonds) as the ECB does the same thing the USA has and continues to do ...print Money and buy Bonds. In short , I am thinking much less about Europe and much more about our next section.

3) China : What Are They Really Up to ?

A massive Crash caused by property values , illegal accounting and slow growth. Join Jim Chanos the famed short who right now is grinning ear to ear as his trade to Short CHINA is very productive...personally I have tried like many to catch bottoms in FXI BIDU and many China related vehicles only to see new lows. We have not been Helped by China nor have we been hurt but I will tell you one thing....If the military buildup and the continuing raising of reserve requirements continues another year....we will be wishing we were Mr. Chanos but I also believe last week China may have made a bottom in it's Bear market so if we look at it this way ....If China has the best interests of it's people at heart ( Do communists have heart ? ) China will be a huge positive again into 2013. Inflation is China and India's worst enemy and it is dropping as they both cool but lack of resources will haunt this huge populations forever so we need to play the resources to FEED and Cloth and Warm those Massive economies...CHINA is a BUY here in 2012....not with all you got but like a Speculative stock ..1-3% OF YOUR PORTFOLIO...perfect play TDF Templeton is the best !

Finally if we can stop the accusations and China finally can handle the truth as a currency manipulator and pirate of our tech and patented goods...we will all be better off...we need China but not as bad as we need China to be a ally...for now ...keep an eye on them , but make sure we do not cross them off as they are the world's 2nd largest economy. Speaking of poor accounting rules ...this leads me to our markets and the SEC FTC etc...


It is too bad but yes , the individual investor Died and may he R.I.P. The computers took control as the SEC allowed the 3X ETF world and Black Pools and untraceable MF Global Funds to highlight a year of some of the most disappointing Federal Government inaction ever. People scream about a lot in government but look at our SEC ? Ms Shapiro is the most ineffective leader (sorry) we have seen and she gets worse bowing to anyone who can keep the status quo status ? I have taken my concerns to the SEC and their divisions and hope that change will of the last trading day of 2011 a unreal 71.9% of all trades made in 2011 were buy HFT style algos and it doesn’t seem to end as the SEC has ruled the "No tick " rule as a dinoasaur ( even though it has now been sited as the cause with housing) of the 2008 stock market Crashes. If the nonsense continues in 2012...there will be action taken or inaction as pensions and Ira's are subject to go to cash FOREVER ...this knocks out a trillion dollar we want that ?

As Traders we adjust miraculously in 2011 , thanks to Cathy and our members even I was able to adopt some day trade rules and strategies that were 88% + successful and led us to some massive gains in our 1-5 day traders account !

My wish for 2012 ...simple : A new "No Tick " Rule and a moratorium on ETF's and any ETF with less than 1 million volume per day must hang it up ...delist...get the money back into STOCKS and out of ETF's or all our careers may be shortened ! Speaking of short careers ...if our 3 worst trades of 2011 were our only we would be ....not here !





Enough said !

6) Finally my last words on where we sit right now and the next e-mails will give details of our portfolios and services results and they will be staggering !

I firmly believe we are in a NEW BULL MARKET that began October 4th and is up about 20% since the lows. I expect a pick up in action this week to at least clear 1300 SPX but then get set for some earnings misses and a rise in VIX in Mid January into February , but the 1075 level on SPX cash will not be broken in my lifetime !

I am confident we are in a LONGER more drawn out period of a Bull...maybe even a Secular Bull ? I want to put my sites on 1410 SPX cash for the end of 2012 and look forward to a recovery in emerging markets.

Again my Target for year end is 1410 cash SPX 2012 and I do not think we will ever go under 1075 again !

I will update you all with a separate e-mail with my top 20 stocks. Top Sectors and ideas on takeovers in 2012 ...I hope you enjoyed this missive and look forward to a lot more over the weekend.

May the New Year Bring You Health and Great Times With Family !

God Bless You !


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