Thursday, January 31, 2008

TIM KNIGHT AND THE SLOPE OF HOPE ; FALSE TRADING

I have discovered a discrepancy in Tim knight's accounts !!!!

If you have puts on stocks and the stocks go against you 1-100% you lose a lot of money !!!

Over the past year I have seen at least 12 periods where Mr. Knight has had 50-80 Short positions but yet he continues to make money ...


"got out just in time"

"just missed getting clobbered"

"I knew I hit that one out"

" I will just cover that one and buy some more'

"It was really part of a bull Bear spread ... I just told you about the bear side !!!"


The fact is Tim gets a ton of BEARS swarming his site hoping to see a 2000 point drop ...well they have been treated to the once every 5 year drop so they might as well figure out he is paper trading or is a multi=billionaire who likes to donate to WallStreet brokers and investment banks.

I bought GS today just because most of the stocks Tim is short are on the GS conviction BUY LIST.

Even with the AH falling a part a bit ...margin calls must be flying in the Bear camps now.

Join the real honest trading group !!!

TTT HEDGE FUND

PayPal $125 to tomandprisha@msn.com you'll get 24/7 service ..anything you want ..we have !!!

Tom

24/7


Tim Knight and the slope of hope ....please fess up and tell us ...2-5million in losses today ????

BIG BAD BEARS GET BBQ'D

The comeback has been as sickening for the Bears now as it was for the Bulls then !!!!
The best part is with TTT HEDGE FUND ...we play both sides in corrections and do great.

here is our Positions


Natural gas LONG

GOLD SHORT

DOLLAT LONG


And we have dozens of Takeoverstocks .....IMMR !!!!

We want you to join and win the big one with us !!!

PayPal $125 for all of 2008 !!!!

PayPal to : tomandprisha@msn.com

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

PERFECTLY PLAYED >>>SEE WHY WE ARE # 1 ON THE WEB

Suraj says (2:15 PM):
.5
Frank says (2:15 PM):
cut .5
Tom says (2:16 PM):
BOTH ..got it
Thomas says (2:16 PM):
both rates 05?
Thomas says (2:16 PM):
0.5?
Tom says (2:16 PM):
yes
Tom says (2:16 PM):
ES not moving
Thomas says (2:16 PM):
Ohh f...
Tom says (2:16 PM):
???
Thomas says (2:17 PM):
1370 resistance
Tom says (2:17 PM):
Nas going
Tom says (2:17 PM):
time to short pretty soon
Tom says (2:17 PM):
1370 cash we will get short
Thomas says (2:17 PM):
3 waves Tom
Thomas says (2:17 PM):
up down up
brad says (2:18 PM):
sell mortimer
Tom says (2:18 PM):
this was too expected ..the discount rate now gets REFI's going
Thomas says (2:18 PM):
Tom with TSM maybe better to wait untill goes through 50sma. Now 9,39 ?
Tom says (2:18 PM):
Right ..I miswrote
Tom says (2:19 PM):
got 2 es short at 1370
Jerry says (2:19 PM):
Tom, do you suggest buy any puts?

brad has left the conversation.

Tom says (2:20 PM):
Not yet
Tom says (2:21 PM):
Just gold
Tom says (2:21 PM):
Rally
Thomas says (2:21 PM):
12570 resistance Dow cash
Jerry says (2:21 PM):
I mean for us do not want play future . Any sub for ES short?
Tom says (2:21 PM):
SPY March 139
Tom says (2:21 PM):
puts
Tom says (2:22 PM):
Dollar got hit hard

brad has been added to the conversation.

Tom says (2:22 PM):
Dollar caved
Tom says (2:22 PM):
Gold rocket ship
Frank says (2:22 PM):
this country is in deep dodo
Suraj says (2:23 PM):
AMZN fizzle over
Tom says (2:23 PM):
inflation and dollar collapse ...going to be a interesting close
Frank says (2:23 PM):
desperation
Tom says (2:23 PM):
GS took off
Tom says (2:23 PM):
gpyct up nice
Thomas says (2:23 PM):
everybody think the way I am. Higher inlation with more money
Thomas says (2:24 PM):
And they buy gold.
Tom says (2:24 PM):
MSFT thinking if it can ever go up ???
Tom says (2:24 PM):
OK .....we will keep up to date ..conference call now for awhile ...we will see if the buying holds
Tom says (2:25 PM):
we are pretty well hedged for sideways to down from here
Tom says (2:25 PM):
all timestamped
Tom says (2:25 PM):
and ready for consumption
Tom says (2:25 PM):
shorts getting clocked
Tom says (2:25 PM):
which makes me feel fairly good
Tom says (2:26 PM):
1444 stop on ES
Tom says (2:26 PM):
beat Carl at his own game !!!!
Tom says (2:26 PM):
I will be out for a hour
Tom says (2:26 PM):
good luck
Tom says (2:26 PM):
ABX 52.81 -0.42 (-0.79%)
BPT 78.71 +0.21 (0.27%)
CHK 36.85 -0.03 (-0.08%)
CROX 32.44 +1.83 (5.98%)
EP 16.44 +0.02 (0.12%)
GS 198.28 +2.23 (1.14%)
MSFT 32.19 -0.41 (-1.26%)
SM 35.37 +0.68 (1.96%)
UNG 39.13 +0.33 (0.85%

Tom says (2:27 PM):
addded GS calls
Tom says (2:27 PM):
and ES futures short
Tom says (2:27 PM):
Msft calls
Tom says (2:27 PM):
TTT OUIT for a bit
Tom says (2:28 PM):
Selling is not stopping us here
Tom says (2:28 PM):
Don't fight the FED ????
Tom says (2:28 PM):
Tape is now a + 3 straight days of 3-1
brad says (2:33 PM):
caught some shorties upside down
Frank says (2:33 PM):
easy money just prolongs the pain...gov and fed doing everything they can to pass the problem to the next pres. that will be ugly!
brad says (2:33 PM):
pass the pain, the american way
Frank says (2:34 PM):
i think this run is going to trap some bulls, lets see how they react
brad says (2:34 PM):
this could puke hard tomorrow frank
brad says (2:34 PM):
projectile
Frank says (2:35 PM):
yeah, first day reaction doesn't usually tell the story
Frank says (2:35 PM):
i think when they wake up and realize whats going on they will see the p/e are all bs
Suraj says (2:36 PM):
market dying...
brad says (2:36 PM):
i am just relaying what rut is telling us - close your eyes and sell this rally
Suraj says (2:36 PM):
AMZN fizzle put out'
Frank says (2:36 PM):
thats an interesting intraday chart!
Suraj says (2:37 PM):
missed buying GOOG 500 puts
Suraj says (2:38 PM):
had a much cheaper entry earlier
Frank says (2:39 PM):
high on spx was 1377.9 . brad..how do you feel about that level?
brad says (2:40 PM):
paper been aggressively buying ES ever since fed, but rut is telling me they know not what they do
Frank says (2:42 PM):
vix lod
brad says (2:42 PM):
uncertainty has been removed
Frank says (2:43 PM):
so the gov and fed have palyed their hands..what next?
brad says (2:43 PM):
paper still buying es, very aggressive
brad says (2:44 PM):
thousands
Frank says (2:44 PM):
is that bullish?
brad says (2:44 PM):
there is clearly some supply
Biegs says (2:44 PM):
lol, you think?
brad says (2:45 PM):
yep
brad says (2:46 PM):
hate to admit it but it looks like the smart money is selling the shit out of this rally

BOB has left the conversation.

Biegs has left the conversation.

Frank says (2:54 PM):
this little rally will just lesten the impact when the rating agencies reduce ratings on the insurers
brad says (3:00 PM):
paper still very aggressive bid ES
Frank says (3:07 PM):
good entry now for QID, SDS, DXD, FXP for those that think this will fizzle out
Suraj says (3:07 PM):
AMZN has been all over the place
Suraj says (3:08 PM):
after the Fed release
Craig says (3:10 PM):
Frank, isn't FXP an annuity to you?;)
Frank says (3:11 PM):
lol
Frank says (3:12 PM):
i'm in all those now with half the position i want. hoping to get the rest when they pull back to 50dma (if they do)
Frank says (3:12 PM):
need spx 1390-1400
Craig says (3:14 PM):
Frank, I think I am going to have to use you as an indicator.:D
Thomas says (3:16 PM):
Well and we have our 3 moves up down up
Frank says (3:17 PM):
yepper
Frank says (3:17 PM):
the last up stilll can run a bit, probably will tomorrow
Frank says (3:18 PM):
those furry creatures will let the bull play in the sun for one more day
brad says (3:19 PM):
aruj, you in right now?
Frank says (3:25 PM):
so the gov and fed have played their hands..what you all think they gunna do next to prop up the markets? out of bullets maybe!
Suraj says (3:26 PM):
push the ECB & BOE to cut rates... which they wont
Frank says (3:26 PM):
i agree
Suraj says (3:27 PM):
I guess it is a good time for me to refi
Frank says (3:28 PM):
suraj...you in amzn?
Suraj says (3:28 PM):
I had a position but got stopped out earlier today
Suraj says (3:28 PM):
so not anymore
Suraj says (3:28 PM):
I've GOOG puts for now
Suraj says (3:29 PM):
AAPL & RIMM seeing a bounce
Suraj says (3:30 PM):
lower highs and lower lows for QQQQ & DIA?
Suraj says (3:31 PM):
stalling......for the inevitable break lower?
Frank says (3:37 PM):
hussman put it out pretty good this week
Frank says (3:37 PM):
"As anticipated, the Fed initiated a large “intermeeting cut” on Tuesday morning, which helped the stock market to dodge a bullet. Unfortunately, my impression is that the bear is toting a semi-automatic with a full clip of ammo"
Frank says (3:37 PM):
they probably have 2 clips now
Suraj says (3:37 PM):
LOL
Suraj says (3:38 PM):
Should have picked up more puts

tcb660 has left the conversation.

Frank says (3:42 PM):
thomas...1st wave down on spx was 170, second 250, wahts your call on the 3rd?

Scorpion has left the conversation.

Frank says (3:44 PM):
i'm picking the avg, 210, target 1175
Suraj says (3:45 PM):
now what is the timeframe for that drop??
Suraj says (3:45 PM):
based off the past 2 waves...if there is such a correlation?
Frank says (3:46 PM):
first 2 took about 6 weeks each, lets go with that
Frank says (3:46 PM):
so 1175 by mar 15
Frank says (3:46 PM):
good as any analysis i've seen
Frank says (3:47 PM):
:)
Suraj says (3:47 PM):
one week before March OPEX
Frank says (3:47 PM):
yeah, that will give them reason to get closer to 0
Suraj says (3:48 PM):
based on the 9/11 rate cut
Suraj says (3:48 PM):
the markets ignored it
Suraj says (3:48 PM):
and after the 2nd rate cut, the market started to pickup
Suraj says (3:49 PM):
not saying these are apples ot apples but...
Suraj says (3:49 PM):
the assurance that the Feds will step in if needed may give the market some solace
Frank says (3:49 PM):
i saw a great chart last night that showed the market actually goes down during rate cuts and up when they are raising.
Frank says (3:50 PM):
need to go find that again and give you the link
Suraj says (3:50 PM):
on the long term a decline..
Suraj says (3:50 PM):
short term?
Suraj says (3:50 PM):
I thought there was a pop
Frank says (3:50 PM):
it went back like 10 years
Suraj says (3:50 PM):
ok
Suraj says (3:50 PM):
Some super volatile earnings tomorrow.....U in any of them?
Suraj says (3:50 PM):
MA
Suraj says (3:50 PM):
UA
Suraj says (3:50 PM):
GOOG
Suraj says (3:50 PM):
ISRG
Frank says (3:51 PM):
wow...the bulls are at the bar!
Frank says (3:54 PM):
none of those.
Frank says (3:54 PM):
i'm gunna take a small position in AMZN puts, just to play
Frank says (3:55 PM):
ZQNPN, apr70puts, filled at 5.95

BOB has been added to the conversation.

Biegs has been added to the conversation.

tcb660 has been added to the conversation.

Scorpion has been added to the conversation.

brad says (3:56 PM):
should have some nice long liquidation next couple days
Frank says (3:56 PM):
wow
Frank says (3:57 PM):
i thought they could at least hold onto their present for a day!
brad says (3:57 PM):
relative weakness of rut was telling us not to drink the bullish koolaid
Frank says (3:57 PM):
i timed my etf entries perfect!
brad says (3:58 PM):
but seriously, there was some paper buyer of big s&p futures, must have bought 8-10k contracts. imagine it was a short exiting
Frank says (3:59 PM):
if it was, they are sorry now!
Tom says (3:59 PM):
OK ..so we had a nice run ..3 day a/d 3-1
Biegs says (3:59 PM):
so is this really the resumption of the bear or does the market shock us all tomorrow?
brad says (3:59 PM):
had to get them out so we could tank
Frank says (4:00 PM):
experience shows you don't react to the intial move
Tom says (4:00 PM):
Yen down .71 yen carry trade back
Tom says (4:00 PM):
So the ES shorts worked well
Frank says (4:00 PM):
ttt...did you have stops on your calls?
Tom says (4:01 PM):
1370 1354 long way
Tom says (4:01 PM):
I had 0 calls except MSFT and GS
Frank says (4:01 PM):
GS ran to 205
Frank says (4:01 PM):
206
Tom says (4:02 PM):
Looks like I got stopped out on my GS stock woth a Big gain
Tom says (4:02 PM):
Looks like MSFT calls got stopped with a 10% loss
Frank says (4:02 PM):
suraj...check out amzn now...smack
Frank says (4:06 PM):
now check it out...lift off!!
Suraj says (4:07 PM):
Amazon.com-AMZN reports Q4 EPS 48c vs. consensus of 48c
AMZN reports Q4 revenue $5.67B vs. consensus of $5.37B. :theflyonthewall.com
Frank says (4:07 PM):
make up my mind!!!!
Frank says (4:07 PM):
it guidance that will matter
Suraj says (4:07 PM):
yup...not really a big move either way...so far
Suraj says (4:08 PM):
see ya guys tomorrow
Suraj says (4:08 PM):
got to run

Suraj has left the conversation.

arujunaa has left the conversation.

brad has left the conversation.

Frank says (4:10 PM):
suns out!! see ya tomorrow

Frank has left the conversation.

Tom says (4:12 PM):
what a Fed day
Thomas says (4:12 PM):
What do you think Tom? Up tomorrow?

Frank has been added to the conversation.

arujunaa has been added to the conversation.

Tom says (4:13 PM):
Did anyone make any moves ???
Biegs says (4:13 PM):
just some day trades
Tom says (4:13 PM):
I was on the phone for almost 2 hours teading
Biegs says (4:13 PM):
unbelievable action
Tom says (4:13 PM):
really wild
Biegs says (4:13 PM):
just couldn't believe it wouldn't bounce
Biegs says (4:14 PM):
then it melted down when everyone around the world realized "holy crap, it's really not coming back"
Tom says (4:14 PM):
I shorted a bit too soon but got the bulk of the fall
Biegs says (4:14 PM):
don't know how the heck you do that stuff tom. good for you tho
Tom says (4:15 PM):
Brad was right on ...close your eyes and sell this rally !!!!!

Biegs says (4:16 PM):
yeah he was right on indeed
Tom says (4:16 PM):
Jerry says (2:21 PM):
I mean for us do not want play future . Any sub for ES short?
Tom says (2:21 PM):
SPY March 139
Tom says (2:21 PM):
puts
Biegs says (4:16 PM):
i got a nice move on the way up, but only tiny bounces on the way down... kept betting on a bounce that never came
Biegs says (4:17 PM):
at least my rules got me out of those efforts BE or up a few
Tom says (4:17 PM):
Tom says (2:19 PM):
got 2 es short at 1370

Biegs has left the conversation.

Tom says (4:18 PM):
Frank says (2:39 PM):
high on spx was 1377.9 . brad..how do you feel about that level?
Tom says (4:19 PM):
brad says (2:46 PM):
hate to admit it but it looks like the smart money is selling the shit out of this rally

Tom says (4:19 PM):
Frank says (3:07 PM):
good entry now for QID, SDS, DXD, FXP for those that think this will fizzle out
Thomas says (4:20 PM):
Tom ... tomorrow up or down?
Thomas says (4:20 PM):


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Tuesday, January 29, 2008

WHY THE ROAD MAY BECOME ROCKY AGAIN

The correction is not over ...the Bears are lying in wait ...Bulls need to get long in a hurry to make sure a retest doesn't happen tomorrow ...

We are sitting safely in some high yield and Nat gas / oil plays and we are venturing into the futures market and options markets to test the waters.


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Monday, January 28, 2008

TTT HEDGE FUND BREAKS MORE RECORDS

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Sunday, January 27, 2008

TRY THESE NEW PLAYS FOR 2008

UNG was our choice for the Nat gas plays..up big in a down market.

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Also the Banks can be bought IAI will be the best play as BSC and others consolidate

Miners also will consolidate

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Friday, January 25, 2008

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Long Nat gas short stock futures last plays at 9:45 am




conversation.

Tom says:
Good morning all
Tom says:
another Gap to deal with ..daily event
brad says:
gm
Tom says:
Hey
brad says:
nice spike bottom, should be awhile before we re-visit it
brad says:
like aug
Tom says:
Well ...I am not as optimistic Brad ???
Tom says:
I think we roll over pretty quick here
brad says:
there was huge amount of technical damage done no doubt
Tom says:
unfortunately
brad says:
but there is now a bid under the market
Tom says:
yes and it should stay at the bottom for a long time
brad says:
?
Tom says:
1250 shouldn't be broken in our days I hope
brad says:
agree
brad says:
the question is do we get a chance to buy 1300 again?
Tom says:
Just maybe 2-3 motnhs bouncing along the bottom is a possible
Tom says:
Got some really good news ahead if it keeps flowing at this pace ...I hope we can go higher so any retest is more meaningful and at 1275 or so
Tom says:
B rad: You know nat gas well ...other than futures ..you know of any way to get leveraged ???
Tom says:
Best company ...any insider plays ???
brad says:
hmmm
Tom says:
2x ETF's ???
Tom says:
any Houston Company 100% nat gas
Tom says:
I am very bullish on nat gas for the 2008 -2010 period
brad says:
let me ask around
Tom says:
looking for something more than just stocks ..but if I have to buy a bunch of small nat gas ...I will
Tom says:
Thanks
Thomas says:
What makes you so bullish Tom in nat gas?
Tom says:
It is just a 'turning point" commodity ..ethanol etc...flash in the pan ..nat gas is way undervalued and is going to be used more and moer ..crude less and less
Tom says:
so Iam scouring for LONG TERM ways to GET VERY long of nayt gas
Tom says:
Natural gas
Tom says:
not the kind my boys produce eother
Tom says:
we have an abundance of that
brad says:
tom, try ticker ung
Tom says:
Thank you ....For the record ..I am shorting this rally today fairly hard and may not be able to log all my trades ..............
brad says:
why so bearish?
Tom says:
I am going to try to buy puts futures short etc....at the apex and I have to do it in a may more time consuming way via Phone with legg mason as my costs have risen significantly
Tom says:
Just this always happens after a key bottom ..nothing major ...just a little protection off the gap higher today
Tom says:
Not Really Bearish ..just going to get ahead of it .....and get 50-50 hedged for what I think will be a sideways market ...and I will pull the puts and short positions on the bottoms and add longs then also ...think we bounce from 1275 -1350 for a couple of months
Tom says:
Just my guess
Tom says:
volatility will stay down a bit more than people think
Thomas says:
Tom do you know Peter Navarro's work? He writes about sector rotation etc. ? If you do what do you think about his writing?
Tom says:
Is he with optionetics or no ???
brad says:
tom, didn't we gap open higher a couple months ago on msft earnings? seems like deja vu to me, when was that?
Tom says:
Exactly ..very observant Thomas
Tom says:
congratulations
Tom says:
Sorry ..Brad ..I thought that was Thomas I was reading !!!
Tom says:
I was hoping that someone would notice that
brad says:
and i think after the morning euphoria the market got trashed some intraday before recovering
Tom says:
exactly 3 months ago at the end of a exhaustive rally
Tom says:
we went into the toilet for awhile after
Thomas says:
Tom do you think that one day of very good reading of A/d is very important?
Thomas says:
I mean I had 13-1 reading yesterday in Poland
Thomas says:
And it took A/D 10 sma above2
Thomas says:
but I'm not sure it is so good for market
Tom says:
yes ..very key ..any days from here on out with a 2-1 ad is VERY important and could be VERY BULLISH
brad says:
nq starting to fade
Tom says:
for daytraders it should setup pretty easy
Tom says:
put calls are very poor again
Tom says:
early and buying puts now would be safe 3 motnhs out and itm
brad says:
nq going to lead mkt lower looks like

aszager is already in this conversation.

BOB is already in this conversation.

Jerry is already in this conversation.

Suraj has been added to the conversation.

Tom says:
Just like we thought
Tom says:
they had a hell of a run ...
Tom says:
you would think all my quote suppliers and services etc ..would all be lowering costs ...they all say business is booming ....they are rising prices on me like I am George Soros
Tom says:
short about 30% now
Tom says:
30% long
Tom says:
40% cash
Tom says:
You can see these stocks all die from exhaustion ...look at INTC which we just sold
Thomas says:
Tom do you like Insurance Brokers industry now?
Tom says:
just utter fatigue
Tom says:
Thomas : not especially
Tom says:
I just like nat gas gas refiners and consumer staples some ag
Tom says:
we are going to be in a rough couple of months
Tom says:
so selling your long positions in here would be a wise decision or paring back
Thomas says:
I thought maybe someone buying them. They are improving
Tom says:
this "waterfall" event usually ...not always ...leads to a drift down to the lows and a bounce along the bottom and then a shot at a new bull
Tom says:
Semi's out of breath
Tom says:
very nice comeback but still need more work on the sideways down path I think
Tom says:
Boy just seeing 12400 again is really phenomenal considering what WEDnesday at this time looked like
Tom says:
Thomas : would you do a quick chart interpretation of UNG ????
Thomas says:
I can try
Thomas says:
Give me 5 minutes :)
Tom says:
anyone else ..just looking to add to the portfolio but want some help BRAD found it and now I am scouring everything to see ..seems to easy for a mind like mine
Thomas says:
Tom clearly you see cup and handle :)
Thomas says:
Tom I like support from moving averages here for UNG
Thomas says:
Money is flowing in by OBV
Thomas says:
One thing I don't like is it is not on PnF buy signal
Thomas says:
And beeing scared all the time I would buy at 42
Tom says:
I am in UNG
Tom says:
Thank you all
Tom says:
Frank : are you out there ...your mail is being sent back ?????
Thomas says:
Tom. I really am a contrarian indicator for you :)
Tom says:
Hope Frank didn't go to Tahiti on his big winnings ???
Tom says:
Not really Thomas ...you had the cup and handle right ???
Thomas says:
In this stage of the market what stocks do you want to buy? I now that they are good earnings for good price but technically?
Thomas says:
I'm sure you don't buy breakout stocks now , right?
Tom says:
Really now you have to look at the really beaten up sectors that will lead in the Spring ...homebuilders ...banks ...retialers ...energy ...
Thomas says:
regional banks are very good already
Tom says:
Right ..high flyers will be bought on rallies but will die the same death over and over
Thomas says:
So at what stage you buy high flyers?
Tom says:
Yes ..they rate cuts go immediately to their bottom line ...I wish I had WFC and WB ..but we will add them in March
Tom says:
at the beginning of the bull ..hopefully in April Late May ....
Thomas says:
And Tom you think we ended tha last stage (the 4th) of bull
Thomas says:
We waint for a new one
Tom says:
after the 1st run of 5% or more ...the leaders will breakout
Thomas says:
Do you think the new one will be again 4 stages?
Tom says:
Yes ..I think we started a bear market but I think that it will be shallow and short lived
Tom says:
Yes ...in some degree ...sector wise in should be lead by tech and financials
Tom says:
maybe healthcare right next to it
Thomas says:
Why those?
Thomas says:
They were the most beaten?
brad says:
nq gonna be first futures to go negative today
Tom says:
you could buy 25% of each etf and beat the market soundlt TECH Healthcare ...Brad ..I was loaded up on puts and NQ short
Tom says:
just such a exhaustive rally
brad says:
pre market was what? +33? now +3 - lol. good for you
Tom says:
if you look at the 1 motnh chart ..look at all it has weathered ???
brad says:
ru strong today vs others, was weak yesterday
brad says:
rut
Suraj says:
MSFT run didn't last
Tom says:
very similar to 2002 before Bull breakout
Frank says:
hey guys
Tom says:
Never does after a gap
Suraj says:
Too much profit taking
Tom says:
Frank ..your e-mail is rejecting me
Frank says:
lost power last night, just woke up
Suraj says:
Frank you sold your QQQQs
Tom says:
I thought you retired to the keys ???
Suraj says:
You had your chance
Thomas says:
Frank is so good that does not want to hear Tom anymore :)
brad says:
is this market strong enough to fail to trade into prior day's value for 2nd day this week? i kinda doubt that
Tom says:
right
Frank says:
no, looks like i missed the be point
Tom says:
There are enough buyers ready ...plenty of cash
Frank says:
sorry for being redundant, you guys fading this?
Tom says:
but looks like the sellers will give the bulls trouble up at the highs today ...no matter what happens ..I do think we will go less volatile ..no more spikes
Tom says:
Yes we sold a bunch of holdings and are net short
Frank says:
poop
Tom says:
was that a real poop
Tom says:
or just a figurative poop
Frank says:
fig
Tom says:
OK
Tom says:
we have already been thru nat gas stage this morning !!!!
Tom says:
now poop
Tom says:
what is next
Frank says:
i was looking at my etf list last night, i think the chart pattern for UNG looks good
Tom says:
ZTR killing the markets again ....where is Craig at
Thomas says:
Frank what do you like in UNG pattern?
Tom says:
4.19 - 4.57 this week !!!!!!!!!!
Tom says:
Brad gets 10% of all UNG profits .....
Jerry says:
what 1 point worth for NQ future?
Frank says:
it put in double bottom in dec, got back thru 50 day, and now sittin right on it. volume in db pattern looks textbook
Tom says:
and if you can find anything Nat gas related you like ..let me know !!!!!!
Thomas says:
The same here Frank :)
Tom says:
Jerry did you get short NQ ???
Tom says:
Or ES
Tom says:
OR YM ?
Jerry says:
No. thinking about that. But not pull the trigger yet.
Jerry says:
I know 1 ES point worth $50
Jerry says:
but how much worth for 1 NQ point? $20?
Tom says:
Might wait and see if we can rally up to 1370 ish
Jerry says:
ok.
Tom says:
Brad NQ worth $ per point ???
Tom says:
ER2 ???
Tom says:
YM ??

Jerry says:
I am almost out of stocks. And waiting for short the rally.
Jerry says:
ER2 $100
Jerry says:
YM $5

Thomas has left the conversation.

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aszager is already in this conversation.

BOB is already in this conversation.

brad is already in this conversation.

Frank is already in this conversation.

Jack is already in this conversation.

Jerry is already in this conversation.

Nimesh is already in this conversation.

Scorpion is already in this conversation.

tcb660 is already in this conversation.

Thomas has been added to the conversation.

Tom says:
Thomas ..the Polish government is tapping your net ???
Tom says:
looking for more rogue traders
Tom says:
selling is pretty steady from the opening gap
Tom says:
sure couldn't wait to sell
Tom says:
or get short
brad says:
selling naz, buying rut it seems,sector rotation

Thomas has left the conversation.

Thomas has been added to the conversation.

Tom says:
Thomas ...stay with us ???
Frank says:
they ran it down to close the gap, lets see if it has legs now
Tom says:
Brad ..I think you will see alot of that in the coming days as the MM try to outsmart / guess each other ...bottom line ..rate cuts are good for smallcaps and banks
brad says:
also dont forget everyone and their brother short the russell
Thomas says:
Ok I'm back
Thomas says:
A worker from my ISP visited me
Tom says:
the lag time is always different but the results are ALWAYS the same
Tom says:
The smallcaps beging to outperform at the new business cycle and I hope that happens here by May ???
brad says:
they have been outperforming for a week or so now
Tom says:
right ..if it keeps up and we hold 1275 ...you may have yourself a new bull run ..that is as optimistic as one can be though
Tom says:
I am taking the sideways to down route until rates are done coming down ...I think the consumer shuts down until Easter
brad says:
i am completely hung up on the following:
Tom says:
10:30 AMD WE HAVE OFFICIALLY FILLED THE GAP OPEN
brad says:
most people bearish and think rallies are to sell
Tom says:
AGREE
brad says:
even the bulls think some type of retest before higher
Tom says:
AGREE
brad says:
so everybody, and i do mean everbody is looking for cheaper to buy
Tom says:
AGREE
brad says:
markets never accomodate everybody
Tom says:
AGREE
brad says:
i am stuck on that tom
brad says:
makes me too biased
Tom says:
AGREE The only difference is I do not see it possibly going UP any distance
Frank says:
good logic, now you just needs some buyers to throw a wrench into it
Tom says:
I think the sideways down is the highest probablity
brad says:
nq indeed was fist futureto go negatuve

Suraj has left the conversation.

brad says:
rut trying to hold market up
Tom says:
so a stock pickers market in a sideways consolidation ...without labelling it ..just a overdo repricing of assets ...the outcome will ultimately be very good and your right no one will get their way

Mike has been added to the conversation.

Tom says:
Hi Mike
Mike says:
Hey
Mike says:
Are you short?
Tom says:
Yes
Tom says:
we are long a bunch of energy and short YM NQ ES
Mike says:
Any more chances to gap up again sometime today? Yeah I know your energy plays. Will that be ok with oil prices falling?
Tom says:
Oil is OK I think oil is up 4 straight days ???
Tom says:
Oil stocks have led the market back up ..I am interested in nat gas for long term
Mike says:
HON did well again. Paper traded that for a good profit.
Tom says:
Yes up nicely at the open ..another good report
Mike says:
Tim Knight was short HON. Ouch.
Tom says:
Whats new
Tom says:
Carl ever get filled long ???
Tom says:
Futia ??
Tom says:
SKF SDD TWM REW SKK SJH MZZ SCC
Tom says:
you should keep a list of these as we will use them alot in the coming 3 months
brad says:
bull train left carl behind tom, like everyone else he is wanting to buy <1300
Tom says:
also USD UYG QLD ROM UWM MW XSD PHW
Tom says:
by the time it gets there ...believe me ...no one will want to buy !!!!
Tom says:
may take weeks
brad says:
might be right
Tom says:
backing and filling ..churning ...sector rotation
brad says:
the market just put in important bottom, will make everyone pay up before thinking about heading anywhere near those lows
Tom says:
ugliness ...for trend people
Tom says:
Brad : the Bears have taken a pretty good beating here
Tom says:
the most dramatic two days of shortcovering in HISTORY !!!!!!!
Tom says:
they are shellshocked
Tom says:
as are the bulls
brad says:
got all the longs out, got some new bears short in the hole
brad says:
gonna be awhile before we revisit those lows
Tom says:
short term ..it will happen daily ...lots of day trading ..position squaring
Tom says:
Agree
Frank says:
brad...you think we will see hod again today?
Tom says:
Late Feb at earliest
arujunaa says:
if the fed goes 0, we could be there on the 30th...
Tom says:
True
brad says:
not in nq frank, no way
Tom says:
they don';t give 50 they are in the soup
Tom says:
it is 100% discounted
Tom says:
Aruj : you catch a short position ???
arujunaa says:
this morning the odds were "only" 70%
arujunaa says:
yes. and long fixed income.
Tom says:
why are high yield instruments making such a huge comeback ?????
arujunaa says:
just heard "rumour" of hedge fund in trouble
Tom says:
My ZTR is acting so well for 1st time since October ???
Tom says:
TLT
brad says:
because all the riskier stuff was panic sold in a flight to quality
arujunaa says:
and smick-johnson saying fed goes 50.
Tom says:
OK so the combo puts them back in action
arujunaa says:
not sure about the "high yield" question
Tom says:
sure like the ZTR TLT action
Thomas says:
Brad, Tom what make you believe we will not test the lows?
brad says:
weekend profit taking maybe, but with reversal up week the bulls are in charge and the bears now toothless
Tom says:
the 10% yields got crushed in this bear run ..the last 3 days or so they have acted tremendous ...has to be related to bonds but I wonder if they are seeing 3.0 by April like I am ???
Tom says:
I think we do some sort of test ..just not to the penny .....
Tom says:
may be 2 pennies !!!!
brad says:
thomas, everybody wants a test of the lows, the market will not accomodate everybody
Thomas says:
Ok Brad. The same here
Thomas says:
:)
Tom says:
I think it will just take a long period of time to get to those lows ....and probably 10Es above will be sufficient
Thomas says:
Well Tom brain washed us all, we start to think the same :)
Tom says:
My goal in life :...Hitler 2
brad says:
could be like 1987 tom, got the crash out of the way, consolidate well above the panic lows
Tom says:
very good analysis ..I was there for hours the other night
Tom says:
Hours and hours
Tom says:
very similar
Tom says:
as long as we all agree it was a "crash"
brad says:
25% in 10 weeks? a pretty decent mini crash
Tom says:
and can leave the bear market or new bull market labels aside ..we did have a crash from Christmas to Wednesday
brad says:
yep
Mike says:
If the market continues to do well, what'll big Ben do at the Jan meeting? Not cut or only cut .25 points? That'll send the market back down no?
Tom says:
Yes ..he should deliver the 50 bps and then hold pat for months
Tom says:
if he doesn't ...he is a loony
Mike says:
That's what he SHOULD do, but last time, he SHOULD have cut more too. Look what happened.
Tom says:
the market has priced in 50
Mike says:
He IS a loony.
Mike says:
Market thinks Bush's "stimulus" is going to be sufficient for economy?
Tom says:
making a comeback ...let's see if he can pulloff a majic act and get a new business cycle going By April
Tom says:
Won't get $$ til June
Tom says:
but we have income taxes before it
Thomas says:
Before that we should see some low GDP reading
Mike says:
But people will still spend ahead of time.
Tom says:
I think they are shot down now and won't come out til Easter
Thomas says:
Tom isn't inflation to high for the bottom of business cycle?
Mike says:
Why Easter? Jesus saves?
Tom says:
but I am just guessing ..once big layoffs start to hit the consumer usually shuts down
Tom says:
Ester usually is the next big retail season especially apparel
Mike says:
Ah, I see.
Tom says:
Easter
Tom says:
Not aunt ester
Thomas says:
Tom we should buy in November and sell in May :)
Mike says:
What is with the market today? MSFT not up that much despite phenomenal earnings and guidance?
brad says:
nq gap up buyers have been smoked out for sure now
Tom says:
This is telling us how strong the market really is underneath
brad says:
long naz, short rut crowd having another bad day
Tom says:
we still have a decent shot to end flat on the day ???
Tom says:

Thursday, January 24, 2008

BREAKING OUT LEAVING BEARS BEHIND ???

Free Chat review...if you want to join

PayPal $125 to tomandprisha@msn.com

You can be in this market trading tonight !!!


Here is a free real time transcript of our CHAT in which I picked the close to the penny ...good info to have for a trader!!!!

isn't that a bit expensive for out of the money puts?
Tom says:
made a lot of $$$ today on those small moves
Frank says:
yep, paying for time
Mike says:
Even for time I mean.
Mike says:
I'd expect it to be in the 4's?
Tom says:
Nas up 41 and about 500 in 3 days ...got to be exhaustive even after the shellacking ...I am hoping a rollover into the ste of the union and fed cut ...
Mike says:
I mean, look at GILD May 42.5 calls. Those are reasonable.
Suraj says:
Mike comparing ask to Theo value they are cheap. That in itself is not alone enough but it is one indicator
Suraj says:
ask 5.7. theo is 7.7
Mike says:
You're talking about GILD or AMZN?
Suraj says:
amzn
Tom says:
xlf flat
brad says:
iwm too, this rally doesnt have much left in it
Suraj says:
26% discount to fair value. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Tom says:
nope ..unless we get some wild rumor or shortcovering back at 1338.00
Tom says:
Gold and Oil are hurting today more than anything
Tom says:
you have oil down a bucjk and gold down 10 ..we are up 200
Tom says:
we need commodities to die
Frank says:
i'm not a very sophisticated options player. I don't do a lot of analysis on the price. i'm sure i leave a lot on the table, but oh well
Tom says:
I bought the nat gas plays cause I do think we are in a bear and these will do well with shorts of course
Suraj says:
ouch look at that selling
Tom says:
I am like you frank ..I get the idea and logically use my experience to pick a contract and try to get 50-80% of the move
Tom says:
everyone else can wait for bottoms and tops ...
Tom says:
1338.00 will either make or break the day
Frank says:
try to stay in or close to the money, out 2-3 months. my key has been seeing the direction and momentum and getting that right
Tom says:
if it doesn't hold and rally ...look the heck out
Tom says:
we could give back 1-4% by 4:00pm tomorrow
Frank says:
that was just a regroup
Tom says:
could be ..there are a new supply of Bulls
Frank says:
is that fre/fnm news official?
Mike says:
You've been pretty successful with that strategy Frank? I'm going to paper trade your AMZN. 10 contracts 5.80.
Tom says:
yes
brad says:
little profit taking here by intraday longs
Tom says:
GS got trashed as is aapl
Tom says:
100 ym worth !!!
Frank says:
ttt...put your rose colored glasses back on!!!!!
Tom says:
can't ..my new years resolution was to go strictly via my indicators
brad says:
great news!
Tom says:
yes my gut instincts probably lost my members several million dollars if all their letters are true ...
Suraj says:
whats the great news brad???
brad says:
nothing suraj
Frank says:
is that fre/fnm news official?

Tom says:
Yes
Frank says:
thx
Mike says:
Can't complain, you never put a gun to their heads and made them hit the buy button.
Tom says:
Yes I did 2 x
Tom says:
assault rifle
Frank says:
we got any rogue traders here?
Tom says:
But two other times we gained 1200 points in 4 weeks
Mike says:
With your BUY BUY BUY emails?
Tom says:
4 corrections so 50% isn't bad if you have the staying power to collect ???
Mike says:
Usually it's not the staying power, it's the lack of funds to continue to buy down as the market heads lower.
Tom says:
correct
Tom says:
putting all your eggs in one basket is not a good deal
Tom says:
Dollar getting close to a all time low again
Mike says:
Is that a bad thing?
Mike says:
Wouldn't our exports be cheaper that way?
Tom says:
well ....the Yen carry trade is not something we want to go thru all 2008 too
Tom says:
Yes exporters love a weak dollar
Suraj says:
Tom your hedge fund members caused this correction??? ;)
Tom says:
domesticlly very por and trade deficit keeps getting worse causing ultimately higher rates
Suraj says:
I knew....I knew it LOL
Frank says:
alright, here we go...brad, get your rut noice maker out and make some noice!!
Tom says:
only a few trillion here or there
Tom says:
48 minutes make your guesses
Tom says:
spx 1338 or 1352 ???
Frank says:
up stong from here
Frank says:
strong
brad says:
rut weak frank, has been since about hour after open
Tom says:
RUT may just be out of steam ...we just need buyers
Frank says:
i know, waiting for you to make some noise
Frank says:
call your buddies
brad says:
buyers are out there, dips are being bought
Tom says:
IWM is known for last minute rallies
Frank says:
if the bulls want to make a run, its sittin there for them
brad says:
but it is hard to buy an up day given the extreme selling pressure we are all accustomed to
Frank says:
your right, let me take these glasses off!!
brad says:
you killed it on the way down right frank?
Suraj says:
brad drink a red bull and ride that bull
brad says:
never had a red bull if you can believe that
Suraj says:
well not time like now
Frank says:
i still got these calls from yesterday, was hoping for 1370 to dump em
Tom says:
I am out of all calls except nat gas plays
Tom says:
44.50 Q's holding
Tom says:
nice support
Mike says:
Support or resistance on those Q's Tom?
Tom says:
Support now
brad says:
tom, is your crystal ball working?
Tom says:
Yes it is
brad says:
today's close
Tom says:
1352
Mike says:
I'll be inclined to agree if MSFT has good earnings and we can get past 45 convincingly on the Q's. Otherwise I think 44.5 is resistance.
brad says:
i was going to say higher than here also
Tom says:
can't have
Suraj says:
YHOO up 7%??? That dog of a stock.
Tom says:
why ...susan decker
Suraj says:
BIDU up 10%
Suraj says:
sweet recovery
Frank says:
i think we are at the top of the A move
Frank says:
closed my IWM and SPY calls
brad says:
tend to agree frank
Tom says:
nice play
Thomas says:
Frank you mean ABC move up?
Frank says:
33% and 44% profit in a day
brad says:
wonder how deep B retraces
Frank says:
yep
Thomas says:
I don't like the idea that everyone knows we are in bear market
Frank says:
.5 or .618 way down the move from the bottom
brad says:
amen thomas
Thomas says:
Frank 0,886 :)
Thomas says:
Brad maybe Carl will be right this time ? :)
brad says:
i think the bull train left carl at the station
Suraj says:
A close over 300 is a psych level for BIDU fans
brad says:
he was about the only bull out there
Thomas says:
brad ????
Frank says:
i need the q's to go, GO MSFT!!!
Tom says:
is carl officially in
brad says:
no, he wanted to buy 1230
Tom says:
thought so
Thomas says:
brad, do you think we have new bull or ABC?
brad says:
still talking 1600+
Tom says:
yes
Thomas says:
I saw your comment on the Carl's blog Tom
brad says:
he got stopped out a ton trying to call a bottom
Thomas says:
What did you want to say to him?
Tom says:
counter trend rally to 1370 ish imho
Frank says:
thomas is back!!!! yeah
Thomas says:
:)
Tom says:
international trader ...taking half days
Frank says:
we were missing that international flavor, where you been?
Frank says:
bankers hours?
Thomas says:
I trade all session in Poland and sometimes I can not sit at the comp 13 hours :)
Tom says:
I guess he gets special priviledges I don't ???
Thomas says:
Tom???
Tom says:
Poland led this selloff ...are you the rogue trader Thoams ???
Tom says:
Yes Thomas ?
Thomas says:
What the hell is rogue trader?
Frank says:
only 13 hours, you're not working hard enough
Thomas says:
My english is not ok :)
Frank says:
lol
Thomas says:
Really what is it?
Tom says:
someone who no one could trace ..kinda like me having access to a line of credit at BAC
Frank says:
go to m-w.com, type in rogue in the box
Thomas says:
ok
Tom says:
MSFT looking good or I would have sold more
Thomas says:
ok I did it Frank
Thomas says:
thanks :)
Frank says:
can you believe some low level person could have done that?
Thomas says:
I'm not the one
Tom says:
XBOX is going to fuel and ZUNE actuallt sold well overseas
Thomas says:
I think PPT wanted to make Carl look stupid
Thomas says:
:)
Tom says:
we are creeping towards the 1352 level
Frank says:
but new op system in corp is going to miss
Tom says:
Make me look good
Tom says:
1347
Tom says:
I may cover if it gets thre ...I will put my stop in a PP
Thomas says:
Today was a beautiful trading range
Thomas says:
Tom you still short 10%?
Tom says:
yes ..it got a lot of work done
Frank says:
we needed a calm lateral day, that was good
Tom says:
Closed now
Thomas says:
Frank you have a good day ?
Tom says:
just got filled
Thomas says:
You are in shape lately
Thomas says:
Tom you have to send e-mail :)
Frank says:
yes i did, but i'm still nervouse with my big q call position
Tom says:
i called 1352 close
Frank says:
you did, you go boy!!
Thomas says:
So Frank, you think ABC now and new lows?
Jerry says:
filled what? you cover your short?
brad says:
looks like moc short covering is brewing
Frank says:
i think top of the C will be near 1390-1400 s&p
brad says:
easy frank, probably more
brad says:
we had some monumental pukeage and panic to treasuries
Thomas says:
1404 maybe
brad says:
and everyone wants to sell a rally
Tom says:
crox is so much fun
Tom says:
i really do hate bears
Frank says:
hate is a strong word!
Thomas says:
Tom you think new lows in February?
brad says:
mkt now infested with bears tom
Tom says:
great
Tom says:
crox has more short interest ..i hate the stock but hate bears worth
Thomas says:
Tom there is money flow into some sectors which are not defensive
Thomas says:
Don't you think it means big money think we have new bull?
Tom says:
good news ...short term
Tom says:
no new bull just no recession
Thomas says:
Financilas, Cons discretionary?
Tom says:
still plenty of stops in way of bull
brad says:
lotsa unfilled gaps above the market
Tom says:
1352,00 close ...crystal ball is back .....
Thomas says:
Tom what was the level you thought we will close in January?
Tom says:
rocm
Tom says:
buy
Tom says:
rochester medical ...pump
Tom says:
stj pump
brad says:
i dont understand how nq, es can be near highs of day while er2 down
Thomas says:
Societe Generale reported more than 7 bln dollars of loss !!
Thomas says:
Now in Europe?
Tom says:
nothing
Thomas says:
You think Tom?
Thomas says:
Tom how did you arrive at 1352 for today?
Tom says:
no
Tom says:
i am very astute
Thomas says:
I want my lessons back :)
Tom says:
we were in a 1338 - 1352 range and the news was too good
brad says:
msft leak? someone lit a fire under NQ
Thomas says:
ok
Thomas says:
What news?
Tom says:
eco stimuli
Tom says:
and fre fnm
Suraj says:
GO MSFT!!!!
Thomas says:
What is it with FRE and the other one/
Thomas says:
?
Tom says:
yes ..1352 on the button !!!!!!
Frank says:
go mr softy

You have just sent a nudge.

brad says:
msft almost has to report good earnings, but surely the do-gooders on wall street wouldn't trade on inside info
Thomas says:
Today three important persons spoken. But I guess they said nothing interesting ??
Tom says:
Bill Gates stand up and spit on Steve jobs ???
Thomas says:
Did Greenspan say something ?
Thomas says:
Or Paulson?
Tom says:
who else can give accurate forecasts within pennies !!!!
Tom says:
Lots of money made again today ..Congratulations all of you !!!!!!!!!!!!

Wednesday, January 23, 2008

TTT FREE CHAT TENS OF THOUSANDS MADE LIVE !!!!

Tom says:
Q's still down 2%
Suraj says:
DOw +100
Tom says:
really have to play the OEX DIA SPX
Mike says:
Q's down b/c of AAPL? Their largest holding right?
Tom says:
I got in a bit early and out a bit early but will take it
Tom says:
Yes
Tom says:
If not for AAPL would be flat
Suraj says:
Mike, thanks for point that out for the QQQQs
Mike says:
Sure thing Suraj. Are you in the Q's as well?
Suraj says:
Yup. March 46 calls
Mike says:
That's where I am.
Tom says:
intc doesn't look so stupid now for those
brad says:
big sp locals still stuck short
Suraj says:
WYNN is doing well.
Tom says:
who screamed at me for picking intc
Mike says:
If AAPL had not had such a conservative estimate for next quarter, we would be up like crazy on those.
Suraj says:
If AAPL closes over 140, I think we are alright
Mike says:
Why 140? Support?
Suraj says:
It tested its support in the morning and failed.
Tom says:
Since 1965, whenever news lows expanded to over 30% of all issues, the S&P 500 was higher three trading days later 86% of the time (37 out of 43 days) by an average of +2.4%
Suraj says:
The it just drifted lower.
Mike says:
Support was at 145?
Mike says:
Hey Tom. Should we short any banks here?
Tom says:
we have washed-out selling pressure that should lead to at least some choppy additional upside.

Mike says:
Look at WB?
Tom says:
WB and WFC the best two banks in the world ..wish I would have held them awhile back
Tom says:
come on Q's
Tom says:
shorts on AAPL will get nailed just like on INTC
Mike says:
They just reported and said they were not cutting any sort of dividend so I guess that's why people are flowing back into them.
Tom says:
No one wanted INTC the past week ....now they can't buy it fast enough
Mike says:
Why is that?
Tom says:
you all see why i totally dropped all stops ?????
Mike says:
Over reaction and not clear analysis?
Tom says:
Because the long term strong hands will be long INTC AAPL forever
Tom says:
both gave decent reports in a bear market ..they were not "overvalued' just overowned ..big difference ..aapl will be at 200 in july
Tom says:
look at the july 200 options
Tom says:
still at $10 or so
Mike says:
4.4 by my screen
Tom says:
MSFT huting Q's too
Mike says:
lost 5.21 today.
Mike says:
Totally not 10 dollars.
Tom says:
Will be next week
Mike says:
Anyone got news on GILD?
Tom says:
My point being ..would you pay 4.4 for a stocks 70 out of the $$$
Tom says:
sometimes I wonder ????
Mike says:
Makes sense what you're saying Tom.
Mike says:
I just don't have the cobbles or the money to pull that trigger.
Tom says:
1% up SPY
Mike says:
RUT is leading the charge here?
Tom says:
I don't want anyone to trade it ..I just want people to know why holding in a panic is OK ..selling is the worst thing yopu can do
Tom says:
you just never know when the market will ramp up
Suraj says:
unless those were near term calls that expired worthless at OE.
Tom says:
we are above the close of last friday
Suraj says:
Sorry tom, I just had to point out the obvious.
Tom says:
Missed it ???
Mike says:
Yep, hence the rule. Buy options that are months out.
Suraj says:
Holding works for stocks.
Suraj says:
Not for options, unless they are way out.
Suraj says:
Mike I had bought Jans in Nov.
Tom says:
Yes and I was talking i.E. my rules of stocks and options
Suraj says:
But the drastic selloff in Dec & Jan killed it
Tom says:
I had bought Jan in Jan
Mike says:
YEah, that was a bad time Suraj. I had Jans in Nov too. lol.
Mike says:
That's why I am where I am today.
Tom says:
still if you bought in the money 3 months out ..you could have saved capital with a 20% stop
Suraj says:
Same here. Grew the port close to 200% in 2007.
Frank says:
so how good was my decision this morning...huh?
Tom says:
250 may be the tip
Suraj says:
Gave up quite a bit in a matter of month! That really sucks.
Tom says:
32 minutes
Suraj says:
Frank your on top of your game.
Mike says:
You call the bottom today Frank?
Frank says:
missed by an hour
Tom says:
Frank is hosting the BIG RED BOAT ...Frank give TTT some credit for at least giving you some confidence ????
Frank says:
you get all the credit, i get all the $$$$
Suraj says:
Those QQQQs have come a long way from 0.72 to 1.11
Tom says:
Those were the same calls we posted yesterday right Frank ????
Frank says:
yep
Tom says:
tremendous job of research

Tom says : the whole group accounted for over 150k in gains since the YM purchases at Noon and the IWM calls at 1:oopm

CONGRATULATIONS!!!!!


Just another day with TTT

Join now and you will see what it is like to make huge profits daily !!!

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Tom

24/7

Tuesday, January 22, 2008

SURVIVING THE CRASH !!!! WE TOLD YOU WHAT TO DO

The violent 500 points that came after the violent 600 down is just a sign of things to come ...smart money has been betting on a 30.00 VIX for months !!!!

We recommended VIX calls several months ago ....and we still think they may pay off but not until we run up to 1435 cash spx ....

Why not get guided daily via msn messenger ...dozens of e-mails and phone calls as I help you make huge profits ??

Our yearly fees are only 10 bucks per month and less than 1/10th of the partial service firms...I give 24/7 service to all my members and make enough just to pay for services I give to you for free !!!

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Please give me a try ...I accept no advertising nor do I advertise ....Just making huge profits in a tough market !!!

Tom

24/7

Monday, January 21, 2008

HOW TO HANDLE THE CRASH TOMORROW

Yes we will CRASH tomorrow / today whenever you get to read this and there are certain precautions to take !!!!!

#1 Call you broker today ( if you have one ) Leave a message and tell him it is important ..you need to speak with him immediately

#2 If you have open options or futures ...Put Options should be Sold in WAVES on the open to the end of the day

WE HAVE 100 Contracts of the SPY March PUTS ..we will sell 10 near the open at about 9:40 am EST then 10 every HOUR until we are closed out

#3 Sell Your stocks or let them get stopped out ...you can be nimble and move your stops to the Expected open ...but make sure you adjust stops in all your positions

#4 START BUYING OR MOVING CASH FROM SAFE IRA ACCOUNTS INTO NO LOAD MUTUAL FUNDS This should be done in 10% increments with your retirement money ...this "mini-crash" is usually followed by a violent rally upwards...Please make sure you get positioned or HEDGED with at least 10% In the Money PUTS out 3 months and also with the new positions you add in 10% incrememnts.

#5 Remember Wall Street is out to KILL YOU !!!


You need to fend for yourself and take the offensive ..this fall will get us down to HISTORIC levels of pessimism and you will need to buy some long calls and in the money options with any Mad Money you have .

By Wednesday you should be at least 10% back into stocks and futures LONG


My view is this is the blowoff end of a bear that began in October ....we have to survive one-3 days of dreaded action and the bottom will be in

1250 Cash SPX is the last thing to stand between this being a bear market and a SUPER BEAR that could lop off 50% or more from the market ....Please adjust your portfolios TODAY so you can plan for the reaction ..the weaker the reaction the less you buy long .


Remember TTT Looks out for you 24/7


I am here via MSN Messenger and e-mail 24/7


Please contact me if you have any questions !!!!


Look for a FED rate Cut by 8:30 am but the market may still give back 500 points just do to foreign pressures

Tom

24/7


If you need to join today

call 352 -870 -4626

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Saturday, January 19, 2008

OK ..SO NOW WHAT ; TTT KNOWS ....JOIN TODAY !!!!

* At Market Close
For Stocks, It's the Worst Yearly Start Ever
By KOPIN TAN

Vital Signs

LET'S BEGIN WITH SOME good news: the designer Miuccia Prada, so visionary she walked men down the runway in Milan last week in fly-less pants and the occasional tutu, plans to take her company public, perhaps as soon as June. Does she expect the stock market to stabilize by then?

Global money managers, presumably still in traditional garb, foresee no such thing in the near-term. They told Merrill Lynch in a recent survey that they have cut their allocation to stocks dramatically. The percentage hoarding cash has jumped to 31% from 21% last month and 17% in October. A whopping 45% say bonds now look overvalued. But, might all the money they've stashed on the sidelines of the equity market one day lift stocks higher?


Last week, futures tracking U.S. home prices predicted a 14.4% slide in those prices this year from their 2006 peak. Only two cities -- Chicago and Denver -- might see peak-to-trough declines of less than 10%, while traders were betting that home values would fall 27% from the peak in Miami (and 19.8% in Los Angeles and 18.4% in Las Vegas). "While the outlook is dire," say Bespoke Investment Group's analysts, "it also means the expectations are already priced into the market."

Widespread acknowledgement of housing and credit woes prodded President Bush to propose a $145 billion economic-stimulus plan. Yet it's a sign of the times that stocks sold off during his Friday speech, with bears fretting that the stimulus might prove too feeble and too late.

Stock benchmarks fell for a fourth straight week, putting the market on track for its worst January ever. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week down 507 points, or 4%, at 12,099. It has fallen 10% in four weeks, and is 15% off its October peak. This is the Dow's worst-ever start to a year.

The S&P 500 ended the week down 76, or 5.4%, to 1325, and has pulled back 15% since Oct. 9. The Nasdaq Composite Index gave up 100, or 4.1%, to 2340, and is 18% off its October high. The Russell 2000 Index of small stocks fell 31, or 4.5%, to 673. Its 21% drop since July 13 puts it officially in bear-market territory.

How afraid is Wall Street? The S&P 500 is at a 16-month low. Only 11% of its components are holding above their 50-day averages. The bond lunge has forced the yield on 10-year Treasuries to a four-and-a-half-year low near 3.6%. One question making the rounds is which benchmark is most negatively correlated to Wall Street bonuses, and thus might make a useful hedge. (The answer, courtesy of Strategas Research: There isn't a perfect hedge, but leveraged bets on gold, or selling financial stocks short might work.)


Option-market sentiment measures registered more fear, but still no surrender. Each time the Dow closed lower this year, it absorbed drubbings of more than 200 points, so it may seem encouraging that by Wednesday, and again on Friday, the beatings have softened to double-digit declines. The bad news: Those came even after the Dow was well ahead earlier in the session; that inability to hold gains is troubling.

Will earnings this week from a broader swath of non-financial companies reassure investors? Not everyone is waiting to find out. "The time comes when enough is enough," says Mike O'Rourke, a strategist at BTIG-Bass Trading, who upped his stock allocation to 50% from 40% while trimming exposure to commodities and cash. The institutional broker had cut stocks from 60% to 40% last June as the private-equity frenzy peaked. But the S&P 500 is now trading at about 15.3 times projected profits of $87, and "for anyone expecting earnings growth here in 2008, the market appears cheaper," O'Rourke notes.

SMART TRADING INVOLVES figuring out the consensus -- and deviations from it. So I was intrigued by a recent Cowen exercise in which sector analysts were asked to list their "top 10 potential surprises for 2008." My favorite is from the battered consumer sector: Private-equity buyers may begin sniffing around specialty-retailer stocks.

Sure, buyout firms -- remember them? -- typically have lusted after department stores with choice real estate. Firms already stressing about debt financing also wouldn't want the added worry of fashion risk.

But never underestimate the lure of a hefty discount. Specialty retailers are now trading as if teens will never buy another pair of dark denims again, and stocks such as American Eagle Outfitters (ticker: AEO), Ann Taylor (ANN), Charlotte Russe (CHIC) and Hot Topic (HOTT)sport enterprise values well below five times trailing Ebitda (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization). This compares with 8.5 times EV to Ebitda paid for retailers over time. Also, "many retailers have considerable capacity to add balance-sheet debt" after years of stock buybacks, note Cowen analysts Lauren Cooks Levitan and Paul Westra, adding even recently weakened players have solid cash flow.

Buyout investors have retreated, but pressure mounts with each passing, silent month to put money to work and earn their fee, and a market slide has always improved the hunt. Cowen pegs the odds of "significant private-equity interest in specialty retail" at 30%.

THERE ARE MANY REASONS to like Express Scripts (ESRX). Managing drug benefits for employers is a thriving business, and Express Scripts is the No. 3 U.S. player. Profits have grown with mail orders and as more generic drugs become available. And CVS' acquisition of Caremark underscores the business' appeal. A recession? Bring on the consumers looking to scrimp on prescription drugs.


There is one problem: Each of these reasons has become familiar, perhaps too familiar, to investors searching for a recession-resistant growth stock. Investors have bid the shares up 120% in the past year, and at about 69, the stock trades at 24.2 times 2008 profits -- compared with 23.7 times for the larger Medco Health Solutions (MHS) and 21 times for other health-care-services companies.

Express Scripts pulled back last week after Medco clinched a contract to provide mail-order drugs for HIP Health Plan. JPMorgan analyst Lisa Gill downgraded the stock, worried that certain contracts due to be renewed in mid-2008 "could be at risk." The discounting of generic Protonix, for example, also may prove less dramatic, and the takeover premium in the stock may prove optimistic. The CEO of Walgreen (WAG), for one, recently said he has no plans to buy a pharmacy-benefits manager.

Express Scripts' valuation also is a deterrent. So is its hefty debt load. Long-term debt is about 76% of capital, well above the 18% average of its peers. Benefit-management profits should grow, but upside for Express Scripts may take longer to arrive.

ONCE UPON A TIME, an agreeable date might end with a post-dinner stroll to the local Blockbuster to pick out an agreeable video. But that kind of foreplay will soon be relegated to the realm of nostalgia.

Devotees who worshipped at the annual mecca that is Apple's (AAPL) MacWorld were gushing about a laptop thin enough to fit into a Manila envelope. Less attention was focused on another development: Apple's push to let iTunes customers download movies they can watch on their iPods, iPhones and Apple TVs.

Sure, Apple's movie gallery is thin today, and Napoleon Dynamite doesn't quite ignite on a tiny screen. Analysts had expected a pact with one or two movie studios, but Apple managed to ink content deals with Disney (DIS), Fox, MGM, Sony (SNE), Miramax (DIS), Lion's Gate (LGF), Touchstone, Paramount and Universal. For anyone without a 213 or 310 area code, that's nearly every major studio in Hollywood.

It's far too early to bury the DVD, and perhaps too late to short Blockbuster (BBI) and Netflix (NFLX) -- nearly 37% and 24%, respectively, of their available stock is sold short.

But a movie-rental service from a taste-maker like Apple corroborates the transition toward digital delivery of entertainment, and holds important consequences for cable, telecom, entertainment and technology stocks.


For example, Comcast (CMCSA), which has 1,300 movies on demand, is talking up an aggressive 2009 plan to offer more than 6,000 titles, nearly half in high- definition. Video-in-the-mail pioneer Netflix has a nascent "Watch Now" service, and has teamed up with LG Electronics to develop a set-top box to let consumers stream movies to their high-definition TVs. Even Blockbuster, whose idea of innovation was to drop "Video" from its name, says it is testing technology to enable portable viewing.

We know how long the video-cassette took to die (and some still live on surreptitiously in basements across the country). Conventional wisdom holds that movie studios, which own the content and earn money from DVD sales, will resist digital delivery. After all, the arrival of sheet music, phonographs, radios, televisions, video-cassette recorders and TiVo all met resistance from content owners who argued that the new technology encroached on their property rights. And each time that argument failed.

"Given the enormous time and money spent on fighting innovation in court, Hollywood has an incentive to embrace the inevitable," says Arnie Berman, Cowen & Co.'s technology strategist. "Hollywood could also substantially lower its costs of goods by abandoning physical DVD distribution in favor of video-on-demand and broadband downloads."

Netflix bulls say that most movies worth renting are still on DVD. Blockbuster bulls say that a recession will increase the throngs seeking simpler -- read: cheaper -- pleasures like yet another home viewing of Jaws. Both stocks could run up on short-covering in the near term. But it's a matter of time before every movie from Airplane to Zoolander becomes available on demand.

Who else will be affected as this shift unfolds? DVD retailers from Best Buy (BBY) to Wal-Mart Stores (WMT) could see a franchise threatened. Chip companies like LSI Logic (LSI) that are tied to DVD players could suffer, Berman notes, while communications-equipment makers like Cisco Systems (CSCO), Juniper Networks (JNPR) andSun Microsystems (JAVA) could benefit. Finally, the new revenue stream will escalate the battle between cable companies like Comcast and Time Warner (TWX) and telephone giants like Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T), all fighting to ensure that you never have to swing by Blockbuster again.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
While TTT Fans are loking for the next huge move or stock ...why not look at IMMR

IMMR is about to double

BLUD also

GE was our earnings play of the week and we also picked up APPL on the dip ...Be prepared for a rough 2008 but with our service you have me working on your account 24/7 ...instant access all the time to seasoned professional.

PayPal $125 to : tomandprisha@msn.com

Mortgage applications up huge last week and refi's will start kicking in soon...don't be pessimistic ..time to go long IWM and RUT here soon


I will tell you when

Join today !!!!



Tom

24/7

Thursday, January 17, 2008

BEAR MARKET BATTER BULLS ; BUSH BUMBLES BESIDE BERNAKE

OK : BEARS WIN ...we pulled out of Bearish positions and got killed today ....won't happen again soon we hope as the signs of at last a temporary bottom are in...now the waiting for the news on rates and FED


FREE TRIAL as we try to reconfigure our Portfoilio to see how we can gain in the upcoming 5% rally


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TTT Off to it's worst start since 2001 !!!!


We made over 5000% since ...come join and you can do the same !!!


TTT

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

TTT GOES BEARISH AND WINS BIG !!!!

Having been in permabull status for 5 years TTT got in the bear camp after the holiday rallies worked out less than expected ...now our 20 SHORTS are making us tons of profits and no one believes how much profits are ahead...buying the ES Futures SHORT and SHORTING GOLD mad us some mad money ...we are definitiely going to get a key reversal tomorrow and my members know how to buy tomorrows break.

We need you to become a member to make huge profits !!!

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Short Gold

Short OIL

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We have


20 shorts that are up YTD annualized 3800% !!!!!

Please take some time to get involved in the only WEB SITE THAT GIVES you 24/7 access to ME

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join today


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Join for a trial 1 week ..pick any trade / you don't make the $125 ...you are free , For life !!!!


That is how confident I am in this market


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24/7


Buying a Dip for a intraday reversal ..tomorrow !!!

TTT

Monday, January 14, 2008

TO BUY OR NOT TO BUY ????

PPI CPI EARNINGS WEEK THE FED THE PRIMARIES >>>...


Join TTT Today ...still running our 50% off sale until End of the Bull !!!

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FREE TRIAL OFFER ...IF YOU DO NOT MAKE ALL YOUR MEMBERSHIP FEE BACK ON YOUR FIRST TRADE >>>>YOU ARE FREE FOR LIFE >....


MTW and FWLT will take off

NDAQ is a BUY

XLK and we have a list of 20 SHORTS

WE are Hedged 30% Long and 30% Short right now looking for a BREAK !!!!


Join Today !!!

Tom

24/7

Friday, January 11, 2008

TTT MEMBERS RACK UP GAINS : TIME TO JOIN ???

TTT...Just a short note to say thank you for the service you provide, you have made a tremendous difference in my trading. With the market now reversing course, I have used your 2008 short portfolio (which is up nearly 9%), ideas from the daily chat session, historical data, and market timing advice you provide to short the market and buy put options. All these resources, plus your passion and commitment to help us learn, have been invaluable in my trading decisions. I have already exceeded my goal of 15% return for the year!! Who said you can't make money in a down market? Thanks again for all you do.

Frank


We are in this for our members...I think the $125 or $10.00 per month is theLOWEST price service of it's kind and especially if you add on the daily chat and 24/7 anwers on all subjects ...recommendations...Just my services along cost that much that I pass along free to you !!!


PayPal $125 to : tomandprisha@msn.com and see how hedging can save your portfolio.


Try a free trial today just by e-mailing me

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Join the hundreds of happy traders and start making your investment $$$$ Go further in 2008.

Takeover possible in IMMR ...we have had 12 takeovers in the past 12 months on TTT

Mand A will only be back stronger.

NUE
AMR
IMMR

We have a list of 50 Longs and 20 Shorts free to you today


Just give us a chance and we will provide the profits !!!


Tom

24/7

Thursday, January 10, 2008

SPECIAL EDITION !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Our Daily Chat ....Traders market !!!! 1-10 - 2008
Tom says:
Good Morning
Thomas says:
not so good
arujunaa says:
gm
Tom says:
Looks like a give back of those gains yesterday as the bears take back charge
Thomas says:
ECB and BOE did not change rates
Craig says:
Good Morning. I'm back on. Yesterday, I couldn't log in for some reason and I gave up trying. So I had to use emails. How primative.
Tom says:
Retail sales were horrendous ...
Tom says:
Hi Craig
Tom says:
Hi Aruj
Tom says:
Good to have you all
Tom says:
we have a gap down to some support and I hope we can do the same thing today we did yesterday !!!!
Craig says:
Tom, is IMMR and NDAQ still in play?
Tom says:
Yes ...but not at the open ..Isent out an e-mail ...to add NDAQ AMR and IMMR at best prices 10:30 am or later
Tom says:
I would not buy them until the market solidifies ..if that is possible
Craig says:
Let me check my email. Thanks, Tom.
Tom says:
NYX TIE AMR IMMR and NDAQ are all on the BUY radar to get the portfolio up to 50-60%
Tom says:
IMMR is a spec takeover
Tom says:
AMR is a takeover and selling at low multiples
Tom says:
NYX and NDAQ are good long term holds in a takeover industry
Tom says:
TIE looks to be taken over
Tom says:
so all speculative takeover plays

Frank has been added to the conversation.

Tom says:
1375 is the key HOLD zone and we will try to go long again there
Tom says:
we are really setting up for a MAJOR Bottom in here if the indicators keep coming in like they are
Tom says:
the indicators are telling me that the recession / bear market will not last too long or else we are going to have at least one more "Blow off " rally before things get really ugly
Biegs says:
I am currently idle.
Tom says:
as if they haven't been ugly enough !!!!
Tom says:
Utilities up !!!!!
Tom says:
It got so bad, in fact, that we nearly got to the "puke" level of at least 800 stocks hitting new 52-week lows on the NYSE.

Thomas says:
Tom sounds like we agree about the comming rally :)
Tom says:
That is about the time we went long
Tom says:
we did reach capitulation level on the Nasdaq exchange.
Tom says:
I had a NQ and sold late
Tom says:
and will buy the futures again today reverse my short position
Craig says:
What a rough ride for DRYS in the last couple of months. Boy, from 131 to 60.
Tom says:
I kinda hope now we drop fast and hard
Tom says:
Yes ..we spoke of that BUY 58.00 and we may see it today ???
Tom says:
4x earnings ??
Tom says:
more than 600 stocks hit fresh 52-week lows sometime during yesterday's session. Since the bear market low in October 2002, we have never seen that many stocks hit new lows on the same day (August 9, 2004 came very close but didn't quite make the cut).

Tom says:
combination of a 10%, two-week drop in the Nasdaq 100 and an expansion in Nasdaq new lows to over 600 is quite a combination.

cjeannem@mchsi.com has left the conversation.

Tom says:
these events were extraordinarily positive, particularly for the broader market, as was the instance from August 2004 that didn't quite make the cut. There were two losers in the Nasdaq 100, but those were immediately after the one-day crashes of October 1987 and September 2001.

Tom says:
Yesterday's call/put ratio from the ISE exchange sank to 72, the lowest level since mid-November. A reading of 72 means that traders were buying 72 call options for every 100 put options, a reading of excessive concern.

Tom says:
The ratio dropped to this low of a level in April and June 2002, which were terribly early in suggesting we were at a sentiment extreme. But the five occurrences since then all preceded short- to intermediate-term rallies in equities, with an average one-week gain of +3.9%.


Craig says:
DYN is trying to do what it can do to keep the market going.
Thomas says:
nice info Tom
Craig says:
SRS doesn't want to stop.
Tom says:
Thanks , and if it were 3 months into a Bear I would be buying with all the money I could borrow ..but we are in the end of a bull in horrible technical shape ...so it is tough to BUY BUY BUY without seeing a bottom in place ...a hold in here would help and we will go long the futures again today at 1375 cash ish
Tom says:
If we see it ...
Tom says:
if not we will add on some options
Tom says:
Gary says banks have bottomed ???
Thomas says:
Tom we have to hit 1383 in eminis
Craig says:
ZMH has upside momentum at the moment.
Thomas says:
This is Carl's stop for his long position
Thomas says:
:)
Tom says:
We should have entered there !!!
Tom says:
ZMH ???
Tom says:
Is that zumies?
Tom says:
I don't have my platform up ....ZMH ???
Tom says:
Carl is stopped out ???
Tom says:
interaction ???
Tom says:
anyone ???
Thomas says:
no he is not
Thomas says:
he will be at 1483
Tom says:
Aruj ..you going to go long today ???
Thomas says:
in eminis
Tom says:
1383 ???
Tom says:
or 1483 ???
Thomas says:
yes
Thomas says:
he is long 1391
Thomas says:
with stop 1383
Tom says:
OK
Thomas says:
that is what his blog says
Tom says:
We should be a bit longer here

cpatriaw@gmail.com (E-mail address not verified) has been added to the conversation.

Tom says:
Hi CPAT !
arujunaa says:
the set up yesterday was perfect. not so today. i would buy 1385 again on es, perhaps 1390. looking for 1425
Tom says:
agree
Tom says:
I would like to see a bigger selloff ...but they want us to chase em here
Tom says:
worst thing that can happen at this time is chasing by speculators as most have thrown in the towel
Tom says:
just in the last 48 hours
Tom says:
capitulation did occur ..now we will see how many forms it takes
Tom says:
and see if the technicals and charts will confirm the excessive pessimism
Craig says:
I'm sorry Tom, I stepped away for a moment. ZMH is Zimmer Holdings.
Tom says:
OK Hips and knees
Tom says:
anyway ...buying the low today is already a winner
arujunaa says:
by definition?!
Tom says:
right ...and it looks like we may not see that area again ??? I hope we do
arujunaa says:
if bernanke says "nothing" today, do stocks selloff?
Tom says:
XLFAZ 100 contracts at 1.10
Tom says:
I would think so ...they will really be looking for some pacifying words
Tom says:
FED and US GOVT have just been buying TIME to see if the economy will hold after the free fall from 5% to 0% growth
Tom says:
10:00am fill
Tom says:
1.12
Tom says:
NDYAI BUYING 1 more
Tom says:
36.50
Tom says:
we are lONG IMMR and NDAQ
Tom says:
And AMR is on the fill
Tom says:
Hate to pump a stock but the rumors of logitech being bought by MSFT is just as relavent to IMMR
Tom says:
Frank no trading today ???
Tom says:
QQQQ calls are good bet here
Frank says:
dumped some DE puts, but otherwise just watching
Tom says:
Pretty compelling info for a two -3 week rally
Tom says:
Up down volume =
Tom says:
after a gap down 100
Tom says:
pretty much buyers are alive
Tom says:
Takeovers will bring the $$$ back
Thomas says:
I think I was a day to early :)
Tom says:
Entered too soon ???
Thomas says:
Yes, yesterday
Tom says:
still should be OK
Thomas says:
Like I said yesterday I think we will go up about two weeks
Tom says:
we got in long yesterday but just a day trade
Thomas says:
yes I know
Thomas says:
your timing yesterday was ... scary :)
Tom says:
yes ..more luck than sense
Thomas says:
professionals need luck
Tom says:
Aruj hit the bottom I did my usual and got in early and often !!!!
Tom says:
CROX anyone ????
Tom says:
IWM down 20% peak to trough ???
Tom says:
.xlfaz up 1k
Tom says:
Last thing anyone wants to do is buy financials but they are ready to roll
Tom says:
X flying
Tom says:
TIE NYX looking to buy
Tom says:
NDX calls ...qqqq calls
Tom says:
anyone bullish ???
Tom says:
short term anyway ???
Thomas says:
me
Thomas says:
:)]
Tom says:
You can't trade ...barriers up for Non Americans !!!!
Thomas says:
I can trade Dow cash and SnP cash
Tom says:
Q's and CROX ???
Tom says:
from TTT ????
Tom says:
I think we will get a SQUEEZE here short term
Tom says:
as we have gone too far too fast
Tom says:
so you may want to at least buy some ITM calls out to March
Thomas says:
Tom as soon as you feel Dow is a buy let me know ;)
Tom says:
.IMUBB is a buy ...MSFT looking at them as a better deal than others
Thomas says:
wow.. buyers I guess
Tom says:
Thomas ..I think you can buy it on ANY DIP from here today if you get one
Thomas says:
stop ?
Tom says:
AXP options
Tom says:
.5% back
Tom says:
stop on futures
Tom says:
20% on options
Thomas says:
ok
Thomas says:
I trade cash index :)
Thomas says:
I use spreadbetting account
Tom says:
good ..I have only the cash in my mind
Thomas says:
as soon as I open account in US I will take most of your trades
Tom says:
best way to use ..most accurate
Thomas says:
is 12710 ok to buy?
Tom says:
cash yes
Thomas says:
good
Tom says:
One more pump on IMMR before it doubles !!!!!!!
Tom says:
No one has touched the IMUBB
Tom says:
easy double as they all say
Thomas says:
bought
Tom says:
Thomas : think you can get in at 710 ??
Tom says:
you got or you had to fill a bit higher ??
Ernie says:
I picked up a few .imubb
Tom says:
Ernie : that a boy ...I want to see that go to 16-17
Thomas says:
I bought 12709
Tom says:
MSFT is looking to buy several small companies ..AAPL has already approached
Ernie says:
I would like that to! :)
Tom says:
Thomas ...you are a Bull
Ernie says:
gotta go to work! ugh!.. keep this mkt going yall!
Tom says:
Options are lagging the stock ...we need to get a position in IMUBB
Tom says:
CYA Ernie
Tom says:
GLW calls
Tom says:
TIE NYX BUYS

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Tom says:
Thomas ...you are making $$$$$$
Tom says:
QQQQ NDX is a BUY
Thomas says:
hope to make much more
Thomas says:
What target, what do you think Tom?
Thomas says:
As a day trade ?
Tom says:
there are so many plays out there ...I am like a kid in a candy shop ...forget the int term today and tomorrow is all I want
Tom says:
12800
Tom says:
sell
Thomas says:
yes sir
Tom says:
take your $$$
Thomas says:
very small position for training :)
Tom says:
and play again tomorrow
Thomas says:
but still some money
Tom says:
Up 2k in XLFAZ
Frank says:
50 million shares on the q's in 1st hour
Tom says:
30 minutes and 2k
Tom says:
BUY BUY BUY
Tom says:
Frank ..lots of $$$ here
Frank says:
my long button key is stuck on my key board!
Tom says:
I can see it from here !!!!!!!
Frank says:
you know this computer named papa bear hates to go long
Tom says:
there is going to be a pile on soon
Tom says:
up 1k in NDX just today
Tom says:
.diwar frank 100
Thomas says:
sorry Tom have to go out and hate to stay with open position in this market
Frank says:
1 NDYAI @ 39, filled
Tom says:
Yes FRank ...you animal
Thomas says:
Had to close
Thomas says:
Will be back in 30 minutes
Tom says:
way to go with the most volatile !!!!
Tom says:
Thomas bailed ???
Thomas says:
And hope to get it again at 12710. What do you think?
Tom says:
no way ...you are going to be chasing all day
Thomas says:
hmm
Tom says:
maybe
Thomas says:
hope not. Will see you in 30 minutes ;)
Frank says:
100 DIWAR at 1.72, filled
Tom says:
OK ..we will be down 50 buy then ???
Tom says:
Frank ...you are LONG
Frank says:
yep, went to the baby bear computer to go long, long keys seem to work on that one
Tom says:
Hope it Buys out Papa bear !!!!
BOB says:
Tom, just wanted to say thanks for the email yesterday about potential bottom
BOB says:
I was traveling, but saw a nice even number in dow 12,500 and bought a few futures contracts
BOB says:
anyway..........I appreciate it

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Tom says:
Thank you

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Tom says:
Hope we can hold those lows

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Tom says:
Hope the lows yesterday will be the lows for the year !!!!
Tom says:
QCOM at 37.50 seems to always be a BUY
Tom says:
XLK calls out are very cheap
Tom says:
immr buying ...by institutions

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Craig says:
Tom, how do you know that institutions are buying IMMR? Volume looks average.
Tom says:
And BLOCK trades
Tom says:
IMMR usually does not get 10K block trades and 20K block trades ...those are mutual funds and or someone else
Tom says:
BLOCK trades are the key ...we don't care about the little guy ...we want big block trades
Craig says:
Ok
Craig says:
I have my T&S screen up to watch for this.
Tom says:
OK
Tom says:
There was just a 11.8k
Tom says:
trade a bit ago
Craig says:
That was probably before my screen came up.
Frank says:
ttt...can you tell if those block trades are buys or sells?
Craig says:
How can one tell if an "inside or outside bid" is a buy or sell on T&S?

Tom says:
NO ..only if they are on a Uptick
Tom says:
the price is the key
Tom says:
if it is higher than the last fill
Tom says:
Craig : not 100% sure
Craig says:
OK
Tom says:
Maybe someone else knows
Tom says:
TRANNIES up big in a recession ???
Tom says:
Airlines doing well
Tom says:
1400 cash seems to be holding here
Tom says:
seems like they want to rally them short term
Frank says:
ttt...on immr you think this is takeover play plus earnings play (you think they will beat in feb). Right?
Tom says:
27.00 XLF
Frank says:
i'm thinking of May calls instead of feb
Tom says:
Frank ..correct ..has beat 2 quarters in a row and is finishing a tremendous run ...if they can milk something out of DEC ..I know OCT NOV was great
Tom says:
I have researched and played this stock all year and they seem poised to really take off they just got hit with a bad economy ...and they sold it hard
Tom says:
Cut in half ....
Frank says:
but the stock has halved since Oct!!
Tom says:
and should be bought or bought out
Tom says:
No analysts and TECH got its first 10% 1 week correction = buying opp
brad says:
gm tom, have question for you
Tom says:
Hey Brad
brad says:
since pretty much every technical analyst out there (especially elliott types) think we are in bear market, what are chances we saw a more significant low yesterday?
Tom says:
Pretty darn good ...all my research says that we should rally ...I think we have actually been in a correction since OCT and the market has been BUYING time for a save by the FED and US GOV't ...I do not agree ..especially with the HOLD of these technical levels that it is cut and dry
Tom says:
The sentiment says we could have a int. bottom in place
brad says:
oh, you surprised me with that answer
brad says:
ty
Tom says:
the fact is we are so far along the business cycle ..speculators come in too quick on a rally ..this last selloff ...I think a ton of investors threw in the towel
brad says:
can tell by today's action people still throwing in towel
Tom says:
I was 90% sure we had started a BEAR market ...but now with these sentiment readings it may be possible for a huge short squeeze if IF we get the GOVT stimulus package and the FED 50 + 50 discount and fed Funds ..this could delay and give enough time for the economy to recover
Tom says:
I really like the fact that ISE hit new lows
brad says:
50bp probably priced in though right?
Tom says:
and AAII new record lows
Tom says:
FED Funds is priced in ..discount rate is not ..that is their extra weapon
Tom says:
put buying really helped BULLS yesterday along with the capitulation as new lows reached bear market levels
Tom says:
I am excited about one more run ....
Tom says:
Kinda like the poker addict ...that one big hand to retire on !!!!!
brad says:
ok, you were starting to grow some fur last 2 days, had to ask
Thomas says:
I'm back.
Thomas says:
Should I buy again Tom?
Tom says:
Yes I was bearish and still am but I am trying to be contrarian ...when GS starts downgrading everything that moves ...you know they want to BUY BUY ...they want a climax
Tom says:
I would thomas : your timing is impeccable
Thomas says:
the same stop and target?
Tom says:
The results of the poll that was released this morning showed an almost unfathomable level of despair among members of that organization.

Tom says:
Thomas ...Yes ..nice $$$
Tom says:
IMMR needs to do 500k + today
Tom says:
to get some attention
Thomas says:
I got in at 12712
Tom says:
XLF is a BUY
Tom says:
12710 cash I got a YM
Tom says:
Got to send out an e-mail
Tom says:
Bought long YM at cash 12710
Tom says:
With a current Bull Ratio of only 25% (meaning that of those who expressed an opinion, 75% expect the market to drop), the survey is giving its most pessimistic reading since August 1992. It has also pushed the four-week average of the ratio down to 35%, also the lowest reading since the 1990's.


Tom says:
This gets me GIDDY !!!!!
Tom says:
I just love it when small investors get bearish
Thomas says:
Tom you said some time ago that two pools were opposite. How is it now?
Tom says:
Readings this low were early in suggesting a market bottom in the fall of 1990, but otherwise the market tended to respond very well in the intermediate-term, with the S&P showing a positive three-month return 92% of the time and an average performance of +7.9%.

Tom says:
II is professional letter writers AAII is small investors
Frank says:
100 XLFAA @.64, filled
Tom says:
Now II is even back to neutral after sucking for months
Jerry says:
Tom, do you pay attention to Investors Intelligence advisors sentiment reading? They are no at extreme at all.
Thomas says:
so you use AAII this time?
Jerry says:
48.4% bull vs 25.8% bear
Jerry says:
for II reading
Tom says:
No Jerry and Thomas ...I out more weight on II ..which is why we got destroyed a couple of times ...I did not listen to my indicators ..II is more important ...and has been around longer
Tom says:
II is neutral now compared to bearish for 3 months
Thomas says:
but this low reading you write above is from what ?
Tom says:
AAII is very Bullish
Tom says:
AAII
Thomas says:
ticker sense neutral
Tom says:
It isn't just individual investors showing negativity, it has started to creep into the options pits. Yesterday's call/put ratio from the ISE exchange sank to 72, the lowest level since mid-November.
Tom says:
A reading of 72 means that traders were buying 72 call options for every 100 put options, a reading of excessive concern.

Jerry says:
Do I need be a subscriber to AAII to get the reading?
Thomas says:
Will you buy in waves here Tom in case we go lower?
Tom says:
The ratio dropped to this low of a level in April and June 2002, which were terribly early in suggesting we were at a sentiment extreme. But the five occurrences since then all preceded short- to intermediate-term rallies in equities, with an average one-week gain of +3.9%....Jerry ..no it come out every week FREE ...earliest you can get it is from shaeffers


Tom says:
Yes ..Thomas we want to use the lows yesterday as our ALAMO or final stand
Jerry says:
Thanks Tom.
Tom says:
Thank you jerry
Tom says:
1400 is still holding well and is bracing for Ben at 1:00pm
Thomas says:
Ticker Sense published their research about first trading day of the year and first five trading days
Thomas says:
They see no correlation
brad says:
ty for all the sentiment verbage, didnt realize it had gotten that bad
cpatriaw@gmail.com (E-mail address not verified) says:
what's Ben at 1:00 pm ?
cpatriaw@gmail.com (E-mail address not verified) says:
@[fwpscript]Version:01.03.02.07|Icon:none|rsvp@[/fwpscript]
Tom says:
yep ..pretty quick ..that is why I would like to see a quick 1000 points up or just a slow grind higher...no 400 up 300 down 100 up 200 down ...
Tom says:
Bernanke speaks at 1:00pm
Tom says:
today
Tom says:
CNBC live
brad says:
do you expect fireworks at 1pm today?
Tom says:
May be big
Tom says:
I hope he is geuine and keeps HOPE ...Europe is playing hardball with inflation and it hurt ...if Ben jumps on that ..we could go test
Tom says:
oe worse
Tom says:
or
Thomas says:
Tom do you use Birinyi?
Tom says:
There has got to be some bad news in banks as the BKX and XLF took a header
Biegs says:
I am currently idle.
Tom says:
Yes I use his long term studies but the short term stuff is weak
Tom says:
Ned Davis better
Tom says:
1400 on th button
Tom says:
I like the selling here as long as we hold

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Tom says:
2 huge blocks in IMMR today
Tom says:
1400 losing steam
Tom says:
BX big move
Tom says:
I will buy 1 ES here for 1399.00 cash Long
Tom says:
Market actually is the first time it has acted OK with Horrible news ...the retail sales were depressionary ..and the GS down grades should have put us down 200 +
Tom says:
If we can hold and scare off some shorts ...we may be able to ressurect the week ???
Tom says:
OK ..I am as long as I am going to be for now !!!!
Tom says:
LUNCH TIME
Tom says:
I will be back ..like it or not !!!!
Tom says:
TTT OUT FOR LUNCH
Tom says:
11:48 am

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Tom says:
glw great comeback

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Tom says:
1403 spx
Thomas says:
still think we are going up?
Thomas says:
I'm thinking about closing the position before Bernanke speaks. What do you think Tom?
Tom says:
nah..stick it out thomas
Thomas says:
Do you think he will say something good for the market?
Tom says:
no..but he will be more sypathetic
Tom says:
and it should be taken as good
Thomas says:
jesus ... I just wanted to close the position .. but decided not to
Frank says:
SPY straight up
Thomas says:
and closed by accident :)
Thomas says:
If we go back to 12710 I'm long again
Frank says:
wow
Tom says:
thomas ..aren'y you glad you have me ....
Thomas says:
yes but I closed!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Thomas says:
by accident
Tom says:
thomas
Tom says:
no way
Biegs says:
what's going on? i thought bernanke speaks at 1?
Thomas says:
and no I will shoot my foot
Thomas says:
now
Thomas says:
not no
Tom says:
my ym is well in
Thomas says:
or maybe shoot my head
Tom says:
axp a buy
Tom says:
calls
Thomas says:
I'm the most pathetic trader ever !
Tom says:
move on ..forget it
Tom says:
next trade
Tom says:
i am up 14 es now
Thomas says:
right now I want to put my comp into the wall
Biegs says:
is there news right now or is this just a crazy speculation?
Tom says:
was
Tom says:
short covering
Biegs says:
massive volume
Thomas says:
hope we will be back to 12710 so I can be long again. What do you think Tom?

Tom says:
immr up
Tom says:
big blocks
Tom says:
rally ...shortcovering
brad says:
benny's watch must be fast
Tom says:
be carefull
Tom says:
i am out here
Frank says:
10% on DIWAR, NDYAI, SFBAL, XLFAA. stay with these ttt?
brad says:
shorties thought they had more time
Tom says:
up 15 es
Frank says:
30% + now
Tom says:
ok sell it
Tom says:
i am out of calls here
Tom says:
out of es
Thomas says:
I said yesterday we have a bottom and still cannot make money out of it
Tom says:
violent rally
Thomas says:
And when I do I make stupid mistake.
Thomas says:
maybe should give it up
Tom says:
SUBSTANTIAL ACTION
brad says:
timing caught the bears off guard for sure
brad says:
they were slowly starting to short cover then bam
Tom says:
BEN SAYS WHAT WE WANTED

Tom says:
GREAT PLAY BY BEN
Tom says:
IT was perfect timing
Tom says:
Everyone out as we will now setlleback in
Tom says:
Man oh man ...YM was a scream baby !
Tom says:
YES
Tom says:
Everyone take those profits as the bears will get us back
Tom says:
XLF calls .....5k
Thomas says:
Tom did Ben already speak?
Tom says:
Yes
Tom says:
Done
brad says:
man, think i've lost 5k on xlf calls last few months, shows timing is everything
Thomas says:
What did he say?
Tom says:
SUBSTANTIAL ACTION WILL BE TAKEN
Thomas says:
to do what?
Tom says:
Market news hit and we went up 120 points +
Tom says:
CUT RATES
Thomas says:
to save america ?
Thomas says:
:)
Tom says:
Man was that a heroin rush
Thomas says:
I hope we will come back to 12710 for a second :)
brad says:
ran some bears, can it sustain these levels?
Thomas says:
Is that possible?

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Tom says:
We need this cleansing after the knee jerk reaction ...you really have to trade ...here guys
Tom says:
I like buying the XLK now ....some calls
Frank says:
i didn't get out of anything too fast
Biegs says:
so you think we head back up from here tom?
Tom says:
Yes
Tom says:
XLKBY
Frank says:
stay???

Tom says:
If you did not sell I would hold ...as we should see those highs again
Tom says:
Again we should buy back in at 1400
Tom says:
spx cash
Tom says:
I got out at the HOD or near and it took all my physiacal energy to sell all those positions !!!!!!!!!

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Tom says:
This is like living in the pits
Frank says:
DIWAR, NDYAI, SFBAL, XLFAA. i had 30% in all of these for a minute!!
Tom says:
Yes ..Frank says:
30% + now
Tom says:
ok sell it
Frank says:
i couldn't get the orders in fast enough. i put in limit orders and they all were missed
Tom says:
Sell it ...it was a opinion you should take those 30-40% rises like in XLF from 1.12 to 1.60
Frank says:
when its fast like that need to make the limits further away. i was too tight
Tom says:
Tell me about it ..I was keying my orders in split seconds ..and getting fills ...options express did a great job with that amount of options and futures
Tom says:
when you get a knee jerk like that just sell ...
Frank says:
i'm still shaking and i didn't make a dime yet!!!
brad says:
i had offer in cue to short er2 at 724.70 since this morning, hod was 724.50
Frank says:
sell at market??
Thomas says:
Tom buy again at 12710?
Tom says:
12770

Your invitation to join this conversation could not be delivered to Ernie.

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Thomas says:
should I buy at 12770???
Frank says:
we should get a more orderly climb now, right?
Tom says:
we will rally back to those highs

Your invitation to join this conversation could not be delivered to Ernie.

Frank says:
we should get a more orderly climb now, right?
Tom says:
Yes
Tom says:
Buyers and sellershould be split
Frank says:
what diud ben say
Frank says:
did
Thomas says:
to late for 12770 :(
Tom says:
Thomas says:
What did he say?
Tom says:
SUBSTANTIAL ACTION WILL BE TAKEN
Frank says:
through all the chaos i mananged to get 2000 immr at 9.98
Thomas says:
Now we only have to figure out what "substantial action" means :)
Tom says:
XLKBY
Frank says:
probably means nothing but if it makes us $$$ who cares!
Tom says:
Is going to run hard over the next two days
Tom says:
Thomas ....did you get left back ???
Thomas says:
no I'm out
Thomas says:
you wrote 12770 and it already was 90
Tom says:
Well the FED president has NEVER said anything like that in my time
Tom says:
No it wasn't
Tom says:
you may have received it at 12790 ...
Thomas says:
ok it was about 85 or something
Thomas says:
or my data feed is not ok
Tom says:
when I wrote it it was at 12770
Thomas says:
ok so I was to late
Tom says:
could have asily moved 20 points in the 3 seconds it takes to transmit
Thomas says:
you cannot believe 100% in data feed at spreadbetting companies :)
Thomas says:
Sometimes they can manipulate
Tom says:
yep
Thomas says:
I just stopped using limit orders with them because it takes 10 minutes to know if you are filled
Tom says:
not good
Frank says:
lot of shorts going to be trapped here unless they cover
Thomas says:
I have to use market orders and I'm sure what I get
Tom says:
I am really happy with options express ..things went PERFECT for me ...just perfect ...
Thomas says:
This is the reason I closed this position by accident
Thomas says:
:)
Thomas says:
But I'm over it now and ready to make money
Tom says:
yep
Thomas says:
But it was hard seeing like 200 points go away
Frank says:
forgot to take my stop down on the DIWAR trade, closed, up a cool 4k
Biegs says:
on days like this will wall streeters take lunch at 2 or something?
Biegs says:
or do restaurants downtown all sit empty all day?
Biegs says:
they were probably smart and took early lunches
Biegs says:
now im hungry all alone
brad says:
tom, st money flows showing this 2nd rally being distributed into
Thomas says:
A/D ratio ok I guess
Tom says:
really ..so the pros selling this rally ??
Tom says:
Here he comes now
brad says:
just my own stuff telling me that
Tom says:
I think that the pros will probably get it right but we could get a 2 week period of blowoff you don't want to miss
brad says:
we have some bearish sentiment to unwind no doubt
Tom says:
don't think anyone knew they were going to release minutes early ..it was a shock ..i do not think anyone could anticipate that ..again ..another 1st
Tom says:
market is acting perfect
Frank says:
ttt....Here he comes now (from above) ...who were you talking about??
brad says:
acting the opposite of prior 8-9 days. used to open higher, get trashed. today, yesterday opened lower, got bought
Jerry says:
got go now. will check back. Bye

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Tom says:
hopefully a change of character ???
Tom says:
we are still like teetering
Tom says:
so it is not like we are starting a new bull ...they may just give us my last crack at the old highs and then a bear
Tom says:
took 8 sessions to get everyone 100% sure we were in a recession and bear market
arujunaa says:
old highs at 1560ish?
Tom says:
yes
Tom says:
the info leaked isn't exactly what is coming out of his mouth
Tom says:
so be carefull ..daytraders will eat this guy up
Tom says:
Frank ..how much were you up on the IWM ???
Frank says:
bought at 1.72 and sold at 2.12, don't know what the high was during the frenzy
Tom says:
they jumped 2 bucks from the lows
Tom says:
IWM
Frank says:
the one i want to go is SPY. in SFBAL at 1.14. thats my mortgage $$$
Tom says:
17-13 a/d ..needs to improve
Frank says:
i'm still in that XLFAA i got into at .64
Tom says:
good
Frank says:
did you sell your NDYAI?
Tom says:
Iam out of everything but stocks for now
Tom says:
had 2 of those
Frank says:
up 19.2% right now
Frank says:
on my 1
Tom says:
I got out at 50.00 even
Tom says:
Hit it on the way up
Frank says:
50!!!!
Tom says:
about 2.6k
Tom says:
profit
Frank says:
ndx seems to want to go up
Tom says:
up about 30K 2 days
Tom says:
Yes I think that is the play I am in XLK
Tom says:
XLK is chaep and better stocks
Frank says:
what was the xlk play?
Tom says:
Biegs says:
so you think we head back up from here tom?
Tom says:
Yes
Tom says:
XLKBY
Frank says:
do you still like the way the market is acting?
Tom says:
Yes
Frank says:
too late for xlkby?
Tom says:
Speculators market
Tom says:
No same entry ..cheap ...
Frank says:
15 cent spread is 25%. thats nuts. your 25% in the whole on execution
Tom says:
Move to another contract
Frank says:
hole
Tom says:
it was just a nickle earlier
Tom says:
shortcovering like crazy
Frank says:
got it, things are a little bit jumbled now
Thomas says:
Tom is 12770 still a buy with a target at todays highs?
Tom says:
AMR is acting like a new Bull ...boy did we get lucky on the open
Frank says:
did bens words get congruent with the leak?
Tom says:
WOW he just said it
Thomas says:
Who, what?
Tom says:
additional easing and substantial action against downside risks
Tom says:
never heard a FED pres say that
Tom says:
and it was his last line
Thomas says:
Tom is 12770 still a buy with a target at todays highs?
Tom says:
saved the market from Beardom ???
Thomas says:
Don't fight the FED :)
Tom says:
yes .....
Thomas says:
ok waiting for 12770
Tom says:
buy the rumor sell the news ....buy buy buy at 12750
Thomas says:
ok 12750
Tom says:
I am at ease ..my workout is over for the day ..now will have to see if we get a shot again
Thomas says:
Tom 12750
Thomas says:
buy?






AMR
IMMR
TIE
NDAQ
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IMMR is talking to AAPL and MSFT

The FEB 10.00 calls are CHEAP the stock is 9.60 !!!

BUY ...a short squeeze is possible !!!!

TTT



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