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Trading the TTT way
Long Nat gas short stock futures last plays at 9:45 am
conversation.
Tom says:
Good morning all
Tom says:
another Gap to deal with ..daily event
brad says:
gm
Tom says:
Hey
brad says:
nice spike bottom, should be awhile before we re-visit it
brad says:
like aug
Tom says:
Well ...I am not as optimistic Brad ???
Tom says:
I think we roll over pretty quick here
brad says:
there was huge amount of technical damage done no doubt
Tom says:
unfortunately
brad says:
but there is now a bid under the market
Tom says:
yes and it should stay at the bottom for a long time
brad says:
?
Tom says:
1250 shouldn't be broken in our days I hope
brad says:
agree
brad says:
the question is do we get a chance to buy 1300 again?
Tom says:
Just maybe 2-3 motnhs bouncing along the bottom is a possible
Tom says:
Got some really good news ahead if it keeps flowing at this pace ...I hope we can go higher so any retest is more meaningful and at 1275 or so
Tom says:
B rad: You know nat gas well ...other than futures ..you know of any way to get leveraged ???
Tom says:
Best company ...any insider plays ???
brad says:
hmmm
Tom says:
2x ETF's ???
Tom says:
any Houston Company 100% nat gas
Tom says:
I am very bullish on nat gas for the 2008 -2010 period
brad says:
let me ask around
Tom says:
looking for something more than just stocks ..but if I have to buy a bunch of small nat gas ...I will
Tom says:
Thanks
Thomas says:
What makes you so bullish Tom in nat gas?
Tom says:
It is just a 'turning point" commodity ..ethanol etc...flash in the pan ..nat gas is way undervalued and is going to be used more and moer ..crude less and less
Tom says:
so Iam scouring for LONG TERM ways to GET VERY long of nayt gas
Tom says:
Natural gas
Tom says:
not the kind my boys produce eother
Tom says:
we have an abundance of that
brad says:
tom, try ticker ung
Tom says:
Thank you ....For the record ..I am shorting this rally today fairly hard and may not be able to log all my trades ..............
brad says:
why so bearish?
Tom says:
I am going to try to buy puts futures short etc....at the apex and I have to do it in a may more time consuming way via Phone with legg mason as my costs have risen significantly
Tom says:
Just this always happens after a key bottom ..nothing major ...just a little protection off the gap higher today
Tom says:
Not Really Bearish ..just going to get ahead of it .....and get 50-50 hedged for what I think will be a sideways market ...and I will pull the puts and short positions on the bottoms and add longs then also ...think we bounce from 1275 -1350 for a couple of months
Tom says:
Just my guess
Tom says:
volatility will stay down a bit more than people think
Thomas says:
Tom do you know Peter Navarro's work? He writes about sector rotation etc. ? If you do what do you think about his writing?
Tom says:
Is he with optionetics or no ???
brad says:
tom, didn't we gap open higher a couple months ago on msft earnings? seems like deja vu to me, when was that?
Tom says:
Exactly ..very observant Thomas
Tom says:
congratulations
Tom says:
Sorry ..Brad ..I thought that was Thomas I was reading !!!
Tom says:
I was hoping that someone would notice that
brad says:
and i think after the morning euphoria the market got trashed some intraday before recovering
Tom says:
exactly 3 months ago at the end of a exhaustive rally
Tom says:
we went into the toilet for awhile after
Thomas says:
Tom do you think that one day of very good reading of A/d is very important?
Thomas says:
I mean I had 13-1 reading yesterday in Poland
Thomas says:
And it took A/D 10 sma above2
Thomas says:
but I'm not sure it is so good for market
Tom says:
yes ..very key ..any days from here on out with a 2-1 ad is VERY important and could be VERY BULLISH
brad says:
nq starting to fade
Tom says:
for daytraders it should setup pretty easy
Tom says:
put calls are very poor again
Tom says:
early and buying puts now would be safe 3 motnhs out and itm
brad says:
nq going to lead mkt lower looks like
aszager is already in this conversation.
BOB is already in this conversation.
Jerry is already in this conversation.
Suraj has been added to the conversation.
Tom says:
Just like we thought
Tom says:
they had a hell of a run ...
Tom says:
you would think all my quote suppliers and services etc ..would all be lowering costs ...they all say business is booming ....they are rising prices on me like I am George Soros
Tom says:
short about 30% now
Tom says:
30% long
Tom says:
40% cash
Tom says:
You can see these stocks all die from exhaustion ...look at INTC which we just sold
Thomas says:
Tom do you like Insurance Brokers industry now?
Tom says:
just utter fatigue
Tom says:
Thomas : not especially
Tom says:
I just like nat gas gas refiners and consumer staples some ag
Tom says:
we are going to be in a rough couple of months
Tom says:
so selling your long positions in here would be a wise decision or paring back
Thomas says:
I thought maybe someone buying them. They are improving
Tom says:
this "waterfall" event usually ...not always ...leads to a drift down to the lows and a bounce along the bottom and then a shot at a new bull
Tom says:
Semi's out of breath
Tom says:
very nice comeback but still need more work on the sideways down path I think
Tom says:
Boy just seeing 12400 again is really phenomenal considering what WEDnesday at this time looked like
Tom says:
Thomas : would you do a quick chart interpretation of UNG ????
Thomas says:
I can try
Thomas says:
Give me 5 minutes :)
Tom says:
anyone else ..just looking to add to the portfolio but want some help BRAD found it and now I am scouring everything to see ..seems to easy for a mind like mine
Thomas says:
Tom clearly you see cup and handle :)
Thomas says:
Tom I like support from moving averages here for UNG
Thomas says:
Money is flowing in by OBV
Thomas says:
One thing I don't like is it is not on PnF buy signal
Thomas says:
And beeing scared all the time I would buy at 42
Tom says:
I am in UNG
Tom says:
Thank you all
Tom says:
Frank : are you out there ...your mail is being sent back ?????
Thomas says:
Tom. I really am a contrarian indicator for you :)
Tom says:
Hope Frank didn't go to Tahiti on his big winnings ???
Tom says:
Not really Thomas ...you had the cup and handle right ???
Thomas says:
In this stage of the market what stocks do you want to buy? I now that they are good earnings for good price but technically?
Thomas says:
I'm sure you don't buy breakout stocks now , right?
Tom says:
Really now you have to look at the really beaten up sectors that will lead in the Spring ...homebuilders ...banks ...retialers ...energy ...
Thomas says:
regional banks are very good already
Tom says:
Right ..high flyers will be bought on rallies but will die the same death over and over
Thomas says:
So at what stage you buy high flyers?
Tom says:
Yes ..they rate cuts go immediately to their bottom line ...I wish I had WFC and WB ..but we will add them in March
Tom says:
at the beginning of the bull ..hopefully in April Late May ....
Thomas says:
And Tom you think we ended tha last stage (the 4th) of bull
Thomas says:
We waint for a new one
Tom says:
after the 1st run of 5% or more ...the leaders will breakout
Thomas says:
Do you think the new one will be again 4 stages?
Tom says:
Yes ..I think we started a bear market but I think that it will be shallow and short lived
Tom says:
Yes ...in some degree ...sector wise in should be lead by tech and financials
Tom says:
maybe healthcare right next to it
Thomas says:
Why those?
Thomas says:
They were the most beaten?
brad says:
nq gonna be first futures to go negative today
Tom says:
you could buy 25% of each etf and beat the market soundlt TECH Healthcare ...Brad ..I was loaded up on puts and NQ short
Tom says:
just such a exhaustive rally
brad says:
pre market was what? +33? now +3 - lol. good for you
Tom says:
if you look at the 1 motnh chart ..look at all it has weathered ???
brad says:
ru strong today vs others, was weak yesterday
brad says:
rut
Suraj says:
MSFT run didn't last
Tom says:
very similar to 2002 before Bull breakout
Frank says:
hey guys
Tom says:
Never does after a gap
Suraj says:
Too much profit taking
Tom says:
Frank ..your e-mail is rejecting me
Frank says:
lost power last night, just woke up
Suraj says:
Frank you sold your QQQQs
Tom says:
I thought you retired to the keys ???
Suraj says:
You had your chance
Thomas says:
Frank is so good that does not want to hear Tom anymore :)
brad says:
is this market strong enough to fail to trade into prior day's value for 2nd day this week? i kinda doubt that
Tom says:
right
Frank says:
no, looks like i missed the be point
Tom says:
There are enough buyers ready ...plenty of cash
Frank says:
sorry for being redundant, you guys fading this?
Tom says:
but looks like the sellers will give the bulls trouble up at the highs today ...no matter what happens ..I do think we will go less volatile ..no more spikes
Tom says:
Yes we sold a bunch of holdings and are net short
Frank says:
poop
Tom says:
was that a real poop
Tom says:
or just a figurative poop
Frank says:
fig
Tom says:
OK
Tom says:
we have already been thru nat gas stage this morning !!!!
Tom says:
now poop
Tom says:
what is next
Frank says:
i was looking at my etf list last night, i think the chart pattern for UNG looks good
Tom says:
ZTR killing the markets again ....where is Craig at
Thomas says:
Frank what do you like in UNG pattern?
Tom says:
4.19 - 4.57 this week !!!!!!!!!!
Tom says:
Brad gets 10% of all UNG profits .....
Jerry says:
what 1 point worth for NQ future?
Frank says:
it put in double bottom in dec, got back thru 50 day, and now sittin right on it. volume in db pattern looks textbook
Tom says:
and if you can find anything Nat gas related you like ..let me know !!!!!!
Thomas says:
The same here Frank :)
Tom says:
Jerry did you get short NQ ???
Tom says:
Or ES
Tom says:
OR YM ?
Jerry says:
No. thinking about that. But not pull the trigger yet.
Jerry says:
I know 1 ES point worth $50
Jerry says:
but how much worth for 1 NQ point? $20?
Tom says:
Might wait and see if we can rally up to 1370 ish
Jerry says:
ok.
Tom says:
Brad NQ worth $ per point ???
Tom says:
ER2 ???
Tom says:
YM ??
Jerry says:
I am almost out of stocks. And waiting for short the rally.
Jerry says:
ER2 $100
Jerry says:
YM $5
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Thomas has been added to the conversation.
Tom says:
Thomas ..the Polish government is tapping your net ???
Tom says:
looking for more rogue traders
Tom says:
selling is pretty steady from the opening gap
Tom says:
sure couldn't wait to sell
Tom says:
or get short
brad says:
selling naz, buying rut it seems,sector rotation
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Thomas has been added to the conversation.
Tom says:
Thomas ...stay with us ???
Frank says:
they ran it down to close the gap, lets see if it has legs now
Tom says:
Brad ..I think you will see alot of that in the coming days as the MM try to outsmart / guess each other ...bottom line ..rate cuts are good for smallcaps and banks
brad says:
also dont forget everyone and their brother short the russell
Thomas says:
Ok I'm back
Thomas says:
A worker from my ISP visited me
Tom says:
the lag time is always different but the results are ALWAYS the same
Tom says:
The smallcaps beging to outperform at the new business cycle and I hope that happens here by May ???
brad says:
they have been outperforming for a week or so now
Tom says:
right ..if it keeps up and we hold 1275 ...you may have yourself a new bull run ..that is as optimistic as one can be though
Tom says:
I am taking the sideways to down route until rates are done coming down ...I think the consumer shuts down until Easter
brad says:
i am completely hung up on the following:
Tom says:
10:30 AMD WE HAVE OFFICIALLY FILLED THE GAP OPEN
brad says:
most people bearish and think rallies are to sell
Tom says:
AGREE
brad says:
even the bulls think some type of retest before higher
Tom says:
AGREE
brad says:
so everybody, and i do mean everbody is looking for cheaper to buy
Tom says:
AGREE
brad says:
markets never accomodate everybody
Tom says:
AGREE
brad says:
i am stuck on that tom
brad says:
makes me too biased
Tom says:
AGREE The only difference is I do not see it possibly going UP any distance
Frank says:
good logic, now you just needs some buyers to throw a wrench into it
Tom says:
I think the sideways down is the highest probablity
brad says:
nq indeed was fist futureto go negatuve
Suraj has left the conversation.
brad says:
rut trying to hold market up
Tom says:
so a stock pickers market in a sideways consolidation ...without labelling it ..just a overdo repricing of assets ...the outcome will ultimately be very good and your right no one will get their way
Mike has been added to the conversation.
Tom says:
Hi Mike
Mike says:
Hey
Mike says:
Are you short?
Tom says:
Yes
Tom says:
we are long a bunch of energy and short YM NQ ES
Mike says:
Any more chances to gap up again sometime today? Yeah I know your energy plays. Will that be ok with oil prices falling?
Tom says:
Oil is OK I think oil is up 4 straight days ???
Tom says:
Oil stocks have led the market back up ..I am interested in nat gas for long term
Mike says:
HON did well again. Paper traded that for a good profit.
Tom says:
Yes up nicely at the open ..another good report
Mike says:
Tim Knight was short HON. Ouch.
Tom says:
Whats new
Tom says:
Carl ever get filled long ???
Tom says:
Futia ??
Tom says:
SKF SDD TWM REW SKK SJH MZZ SCC
Tom says:
you should keep a list of these as we will use them alot in the coming 3 months
brad says:
bull train left carl behind tom, like everyone else he is wanting to buy <1300
Tom says:
also USD UYG QLD ROM UWM MW XSD PHW
Tom says:
by the time it gets there ...believe me ...no one will want to buy !!!!
Tom says:
may take weeks
brad says:
might be right
Tom says:
backing and filling ..churning ...sector rotation
brad says:
the market just put in important bottom, will make everyone pay up before thinking about heading anywhere near those lows
Tom says:
ugliness ...for trend people
Tom says:
Brad : the Bears have taken a pretty good beating here
Tom says:
the most dramatic two days of shortcovering in HISTORY !!!!!!!
Tom says:
they are shellshocked
Tom says:
as are the bulls
brad says:
got all the longs out, got some new bears short in the hole
brad says:
gonna be awhile before we revisit those lows
Tom says:
short term ..it will happen daily ...lots of day trading ..position squaring
Tom says:
Agree
Frank says:
brad...you think we will see hod again today?
Tom says:
Late Feb at earliest
arujunaa says:
if the fed goes 0, we could be there on the 30th...
Tom says:
True
brad says:
not in nq frank, no way
Tom says:
they don';t give 50 they are in the soup
Tom says:
it is 100% discounted
Tom says:
Aruj : you catch a short position ???
arujunaa says:
this morning the odds were "only" 70%
arujunaa says:
yes. and long fixed income.
Tom says:
why are high yield instruments making such a huge comeback ?????
arujunaa says:
just heard "rumour" of hedge fund in trouble
Tom says:
My ZTR is acting so well for 1st time since October ???
Tom says:
TLT
brad says:
because all the riskier stuff was panic sold in a flight to quality
arujunaa says:
and smick-johnson saying fed goes 50.
Tom says:
OK so the combo puts them back in action
arujunaa says:
not sure about the "high yield" question
Tom says:
sure like the ZTR TLT action
Thomas says:
Brad, Tom what make you believe we will not test the lows?
brad says:
weekend profit taking maybe, but with reversal up week the bulls are in charge and the bears now toothless
Tom says:
the 10% yields got crushed in this bear run ..the last 3 days or so they have acted tremendous ...has to be related to bonds but I wonder if they are seeing 3.0 by April like I am ???
Tom says:
I think we do some sort of test ..just not to the penny .....
Tom says:
may be 2 pennies !!!!
brad says:
thomas, everybody wants a test of the lows, the market will not accomodate everybody
Thomas says:
Ok Brad. The same here
Thomas says:
:)
Tom says:
I think it will just take a long period of time to get to those lows ....and probably 10Es above will be sufficient
Thomas says:
Well Tom brain washed us all, we start to think the same :)
Tom says:
My goal in life :...Hitler 2
brad says:
could be like 1987 tom, got the crash out of the way, consolidate well above the panic lows
Tom says:
very good analysis ..I was there for hours the other night
Tom says:
Hours and hours
Tom says:
very similar
Tom says:
as long as we all agree it was a "crash"
brad says:
25% in 10 weeks? a pretty decent mini crash
Tom says:
and can leave the bear market or new bull market labels aside ..we did have a crash from Christmas to Wednesday
brad says:
yep
Mike says:
If the market continues to do well, what'll big Ben do at the Jan meeting? Not cut or only cut .25 points? That'll send the market back down no?
Tom says:
Yes ..he should deliver the 50 bps and then hold pat for months
Tom says:
if he doesn't ...he is a loony
Mike says:
That's what he SHOULD do, but last time, he SHOULD have cut more too. Look what happened.
Tom says:
the market has priced in 50
Mike says:
He IS a loony.
Mike says:
Market thinks Bush's "stimulus" is going to be sufficient for economy?
Tom says:
making a comeback ...let's see if he can pulloff a majic act and get a new business cycle going By April
Tom says:
Won't get $$ til June
Tom says:
but we have income taxes before it
Thomas says:
Before that we should see some low GDP reading
Mike says:
But people will still spend ahead of time.
Tom says:
I think they are shot down now and won't come out til Easter
Thomas says:
Tom isn't inflation to high for the bottom of business cycle?
Mike says:
Why Easter? Jesus saves?
Tom says:
but I am just guessing ..once big layoffs start to hit the consumer usually shuts down
Tom says:
Ester usually is the next big retail season especially apparel
Mike says:
Ah, I see.
Tom says:
Easter
Tom says:
Not aunt ester
Thomas says:
Tom we should buy in November and sell in May :)
Mike says:
What is with the market today? MSFT not up that much despite phenomenal earnings and guidance?
brad says:
nq gap up buyers have been smoked out for sure now
Tom says:
This is telling us how strong the market really is underneath
brad says:
long naz, short rut crowd having another bad day
Tom says:
we still have a decent shot to end flat on the day ???
Tom says:
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