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Here is a free real time transcript of our CHAT in which I picked the close to the penny ...good info to have for a trader!!!!
isn't that a bit expensive for out of the money puts?
Tom says:
made a lot of $$$ today on those small moves
Frank says:
yep, paying for time
Mike says:
Even for time I mean.
Mike says:
I'd expect it to be in the 4's?
Tom says:
Nas up 41 and about 500 in 3 days ...got to be exhaustive even after the shellacking ...I am hoping a rollover into the ste of the union and fed cut ...
Mike says:
I mean, look at GILD May 42.5 calls. Those are reasonable.
Suraj says:
Mike comparing ask to Theo value they are cheap. That in itself is not alone enough but it is one indicator
Suraj says:
ask 5.7. theo is 7.7
Mike says:
You're talking about GILD or AMZN?
Suraj says:
amzn
Tom says:
xlf flat
brad says:
iwm too, this rally doesnt have much left in it
Suraj says:
26% discount to fair value. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Tom says:
nope ..unless we get some wild rumor or shortcovering back at 1338.00
Tom says:
Gold and Oil are hurting today more than anything
Tom says:
you have oil down a bucjk and gold down 10 ..we are up 200
Tom says:
we need commodities to die
Frank says:
i'm not a very sophisticated options player. I don't do a lot of analysis on the price. i'm sure i leave a lot on the table, but oh well
Tom says:
I bought the nat gas plays cause I do think we are in a bear and these will do well with shorts of course
Suraj says:
ouch look at that selling
Tom says:
I am like you frank ..I get the idea and logically use my experience to pick a contract and try to get 50-80% of the move
Tom says:
everyone else can wait for bottoms and tops ...
Tom says:
1338.00 will either make or break the day
Frank says:
try to stay in or close to the money, out 2-3 months. my key has been seeing the direction and momentum and getting that right
Tom says:
if it doesn't hold and rally ...look the heck out
Tom says:
we could give back 1-4% by 4:00pm tomorrow
Frank says:
that was just a regroup
Tom says:
could be ..there are a new supply of Bulls
Frank says:
is that fre/fnm news official?
Mike says:
You've been pretty successful with that strategy Frank? I'm going to paper trade your AMZN. 10 contracts 5.80.
Tom says:
yes
brad says:
little profit taking here by intraday longs
Tom says:
GS got trashed as is aapl
Tom says:
100 ym worth !!!
Frank says:
ttt...put your rose colored glasses back on!!!!!
Tom says:
can't ..my new years resolution was to go strictly via my indicators
brad says:
great news!
Tom says:
yes my gut instincts probably lost my members several million dollars if all their letters are true ...
Suraj says:
whats the great news brad???
brad says:
nothing suraj
Frank says:
is that fre/fnm news official?
Tom says:
Yes
Frank says:
thx
Mike says:
Can't complain, you never put a gun to their heads and made them hit the buy button.
Tom says:
Yes I did 2 x
Tom says:
assault rifle
Frank says:
we got any rogue traders here?
Tom says:
But two other times we gained 1200 points in 4 weeks
Mike says:
With your BUY BUY BUY emails?
Tom says:
4 corrections so 50% isn't bad if you have the staying power to collect ???
Mike says:
Usually it's not the staying power, it's the lack of funds to continue to buy down as the market heads lower.
Tom says:
correct
Tom says:
putting all your eggs in one basket is not a good deal
Tom says:
Dollar getting close to a all time low again
Mike says:
Is that a bad thing?
Mike says:
Wouldn't our exports be cheaper that way?
Tom says:
well ....the Yen carry trade is not something we want to go thru all 2008 too
Tom says:
Yes exporters love a weak dollar
Suraj says:
Tom your hedge fund members caused this correction??? ;)
Tom says:
domesticlly very por and trade deficit keeps getting worse causing ultimately higher rates
Suraj says:
I knew....I knew it LOL
Frank says:
alright, here we go...brad, get your rut noice maker out and make some noice!!
Tom says:
only a few trillion here or there
Tom says:
48 minutes make your guesses
Tom says:
spx 1338 or 1352 ???
Frank says:
up stong from here
Frank says:
strong
brad says:
rut weak frank, has been since about hour after open
Tom says:
RUT may just be out of steam ...we just need buyers
Frank says:
i know, waiting for you to make some noise
Frank says:
call your buddies
brad says:
buyers are out there, dips are being bought
Tom says:
IWM is known for last minute rallies
Frank says:
if the bulls want to make a run, its sittin there for them
brad says:
but it is hard to buy an up day given the extreme selling pressure we are all accustomed to
Frank says:
your right, let me take these glasses off!!
brad says:
you killed it on the way down right frank?
Suraj says:
brad drink a red bull and ride that bull
brad says:
never had a red bull if you can believe that
Suraj says:
well not time like now
Frank says:
i still got these calls from yesterday, was hoping for 1370 to dump em
Tom says:
I am out of all calls except nat gas plays
Tom says:
44.50 Q's holding
Tom says:
nice support
Mike says:
Support or resistance on those Q's Tom?
Tom says:
Support now
brad says:
tom, is your crystal ball working?
Tom says:
Yes it is
brad says:
today's close
Tom says:
1352
Mike says:
I'll be inclined to agree if MSFT has good earnings and we can get past 45 convincingly on the Q's. Otherwise I think 44.5 is resistance.
brad says:
i was going to say higher than here also
Tom says:
can't have
Suraj says:
YHOO up 7%??? That dog of a stock.
Tom says:
why ...susan decker
Suraj says:
BIDU up 10%
Suraj says:
sweet recovery
Frank says:
i think we are at the top of the A move
Frank says:
closed my IWM and SPY calls
brad says:
tend to agree frank
Tom says:
nice play
Thomas says:
Frank you mean ABC move up?
Frank says:
33% and 44% profit in a day
brad says:
wonder how deep B retraces
Frank says:
yep
Thomas says:
I don't like the idea that everyone knows we are in bear market
Frank says:
.5 or .618 way down the move from the bottom
brad says:
amen thomas
Thomas says:
Frank 0,886 :)
Thomas says:
Brad maybe Carl will be right this time ? :)
brad says:
i think the bull train left carl at the station
Suraj says:
A close over 300 is a psych level for BIDU fans
brad says:
he was about the only bull out there
Thomas says:
brad ????
Frank says:
i need the q's to go, GO MSFT!!!
Tom says:
is carl officially in
brad says:
no, he wanted to buy 1230
Tom says:
thought so
Thomas says:
brad, do you think we have new bull or ABC?
brad says:
still talking 1600+
Tom says:
yes
Thomas says:
I saw your comment on the Carl's blog Tom
brad says:
he got stopped out a ton trying to call a bottom
Thomas says:
What did you want to say to him?
Tom says:
counter trend rally to 1370 ish imho
Frank says:
thomas is back!!!! yeah
Thomas says:
:)
Tom says:
international trader ...taking half days
Frank says:
we were missing that international flavor, where you been?
Frank says:
bankers hours?
Thomas says:
I trade all session in Poland and sometimes I can not sit at the comp 13 hours :)
Tom says:
I guess he gets special priviledges I don't ???
Thomas says:
Tom???
Tom says:
Poland led this selloff ...are you the rogue trader Thoams ???
Tom says:
Yes Thomas ?
Thomas says:
What the hell is rogue trader?
Frank says:
only 13 hours, you're not working hard enough
Thomas says:
My english is not ok :)
Frank says:
lol
Thomas says:
Really what is it?
Tom says:
someone who no one could trace ..kinda like me having access to a line of credit at BAC
Frank says:
go to m-w.com, type in rogue in the box
Thomas says:
ok
Tom says:
MSFT looking good or I would have sold more
Thomas says:
ok I did it Frank
Thomas says:
thanks :)
Frank says:
can you believe some low level person could have done that?
Thomas says:
I'm not the one
Tom says:
XBOX is going to fuel and ZUNE actuallt sold well overseas
Thomas says:
I think PPT wanted to make Carl look stupid
Thomas says:
:)
Tom says:
we are creeping towards the 1352 level
Frank says:
but new op system in corp is going to miss
Tom says:
Make me look good
Tom says:
1347
Tom says:
I may cover if it gets thre ...I will put my stop in a PP
Thomas says:
Today was a beautiful trading range
Thomas says:
Tom you still short 10%?
Tom says:
yes ..it got a lot of work done
Frank says:
we needed a calm lateral day, that was good
Tom says:
Closed now
Thomas says:
Frank you have a good day ?
Tom says:
just got filled
Thomas says:
You are in shape lately
Thomas says:
Tom you have to send e-mail :)
Frank says:
yes i did, but i'm still nervouse with my big q call position
Tom says:
i called 1352 close
Frank says:
you did, you go boy!!
Thomas says:
So Frank, you think ABC now and new lows?
Jerry says:
filled what? you cover your short?
brad says:
looks like moc short covering is brewing
Frank says:
i think top of the C will be near 1390-1400 s&p
brad says:
easy frank, probably more
brad says:
we had some monumental pukeage and panic to treasuries
Thomas says:
1404 maybe
brad says:
and everyone wants to sell a rally
Tom says:
crox is so much fun
Tom says:
i really do hate bears
Frank says:
hate is a strong word!
Thomas says:
Tom you think new lows in February?
brad says:
mkt now infested with bears tom
Tom says:
great
Tom says:
crox has more short interest ..i hate the stock but hate bears worth
Thomas says:
Tom there is money flow into some sectors which are not defensive
Thomas says:
Don't you think it means big money think we have new bull?
Tom says:
good news ...short term
Tom says:
no new bull just no recession
Thomas says:
Financilas, Cons discretionary?
Tom says:
still plenty of stops in way of bull
brad says:
lotsa unfilled gaps above the market
Tom says:
1352,00 close ...crystal ball is back .....
Thomas says:
Tom what was the level you thought we will close in January?
Tom says:
rocm
Tom says:
buy
Tom says:
rochester medical ...pump
Tom says:
stj pump
brad says:
i dont understand how nq, es can be near highs of day while er2 down
Thomas says:
Societe Generale reported more than 7 bln dollars of loss !!
Thomas says:
Now in Europe?
Tom says:
nothing
Thomas says:
You think Tom?
Thomas says:
Tom how did you arrive at 1352 for today?
Tom says:
no
Tom says:
i am very astute
Thomas says:
I want my lessons back :)
Tom says:
we were in a 1338 - 1352 range and the news was too good
brad says:
msft leak? someone lit a fire under NQ
Thomas says:
ok
Thomas says:
What news?
Tom says:
eco stimuli
Tom says:
and fre fnm
Suraj says:
GO MSFT!!!!
Thomas says:
What is it with FRE and the other one/
Thomas says:
?
Tom says:
yes ..1352 on the button !!!!!!
Frank says:
go mr softy
You have just sent a nudge.
brad says:
msft almost has to report good earnings, but surely the do-gooders on wall street wouldn't trade on inside info
Thomas says:
Today three important persons spoken. But I guess they said nothing interesting ??
Tom says:
Bill Gates stand up and spit on Steve jobs ???
Thomas says:
Did Greenspan say something ?
Thomas says:
Or Paulson?
Tom says:
who else can give accurate forecasts within pennies !!!!
Tom says:
Lots of money made again today ..Congratulations all of you !!!!!!!!!!!!
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