Wednesday, September 3, 2008


tomthetrader: commercual real estate slowing
tomthetrader: tighter lending standards
(2:00 PM) thomas_Poland: how can they read the whole book in few seconds??????
(2:00 PM) thomas_Poland: It always amazes me
tomthetrader: inflation
tomthetrader: elevated
tomthetrader: higher selling prices
tomthetrader: wages OK
tomthetrader: slowing price gains
tomthetrader: good news
tomthetrader: exports slowing
tomthetrader: cap ex mixed
tomthetrader: markets do not like the news
(2:02 PM) thomas_Poland: I always like when they react against me
(2:02 PM) thomas_Poland: but now always happy after few hours
(2:05 PM) ajayvee: that was some whipsaw
(2:05 PM) thomas_Poland: now 200 sma
(2:06 PM) thomas_Poland: I hate 200 sma
(2:06 PM) thomas_Poland: die bears!
(2:06 PM) berniectx: XLF seems to be lagging a bit
(2:06 PM) billb1947: nq still a LONG way below the 200sma
(2:07 PM) Michael TTT: y
(2:07 PM) mickymax_ttt: yy
(2:07 PM) ajayvee: y
(2:07 PM) billb1947: y
(2:07 PM) csu30: y
(2:07 PM) PhotosbyDill: y
(2:07 PM) les13436: y
(2:07 PM) tradster_ny: y
(2:07 PM) Docqb: i never have liked the beige book
(2:07 PM) berniectx: y
(2:09 PM) Fulkdaddy: One of the best GM dealerships in CA is down 50% yoy due to extremely tight leasing.
(2:10 PM) Fulkdaddy: Toyota is self financed so they can keep leasing. GMAC is in deep trouble
(2:10 PM) Fulkdaddy: therefore, it could really hurt GM here.
(2:12 PM) thomas_Poland: yes
(2:12 PM) berniectx: I'm waiting with Thomas 1264
(2:12 PM) billb1947: me too
(2:13 PM) thomas_Poland: LOL
(2:13 PM) thomas_Poland: I prefer when you are short boys
(2:14 PM) billb1947: thomas-it'll never, ever get to 1264
(2:14 PM) thomas_Poland: but right now I hope it will go to 1264 but tomorrow
(2:14 PM) thomas_Poland: not today
tomthetrader: ABXIF at 2.15
tomthetrader: bought 20 contracts
tomthetrader: for a hedge
(2:21 PM) thomas_Poland: ok
(2:22 PM) RV_trader: RIMM new LOD
tomthetrader: yes ..can't find the bottom RV ...any ideas /
tomthetrader: RUT still +
tomthetrader: 1820.00 NDX we will buy 3 more NQ contracts
(2:31 PM) Fulkdaddy: Tom, why do you think we go down here...before resuming uptrend?
tomthetrader: Just the hedge funds have the ball now and should sell stocksto replenish their ailing oil trades ...and "heavies" trade ...just a guess but I think "smart" money from 3-4pm should bring us back ...but ?
tomthetrader: it is typical of this market
tomthetrader: pattern hedge fund activity is pretty easy to track
tomthetrader: but one can never tell
(2:35 PM) nimesh_: it's like watching paint dry here
tomthetrader: hopefully they will be forced to BUY equities but for the short term until we get some levels in commodities it could be whipsaw city
(2:36 PM) Fulkdaddy: Kass: Materials and Energy Heading for a Bottom? "For the materials and energy sectors, early September is now looking very much like mid-July was for the banks."
tomthetrader: quite a statement ..banksare up about 50% on avg
tomthetrader: did you see GS statement ? Dave /
(2:39 PM) Fulkdaddy: no
tomthetrader: GS says buy commodity stocks and energy and GARP in tech bio semis
tomthetrader: so similar call as dougie
tomthetrader: IBM IBM IBM IBM IBM
(2:40 PM) Fulkdaddy: some believe GS call of $150 oil may hurt their earnings performance as they were most likely long oil this qrt
(2:41 PM) Fulkdaddy: qtr
tomthetrader: they and LEH kinda retracted that call saying that avg pricesshould be 105 but a SPIKE to 150 is possible !
tomthetrader: LEH and GS covering tracks and GS would short their Moms' for a nickle
tomthetrader: and a commission '
tomthetrader: HGX BKX
tomthetrader: HGX BKX
tomthetrader: RTH
tomthetrader: all been on fire since July 15th
tomthetrader: XLF up today in down market ...rare
tomthetrader: TOL after hours
tomthetrader: June 30th bottom in housing next year Cramer says
tomthetrader: I say it is in and will continue
tomthetrader: bottom in
(2:48 PM) tradster_ny: URE?
tomthetrader: yes
(2:49 PM) csu30: Yesterday's volume was below 50 DMA average and today's looks below avg too - some folks still on vacation?
(2:50 PM) wclegg: 1265.59
(2:50 PM) ajayvee: 1265.59
(2:50 PM) csu30: 1265.59
tomthetrader: we could have a pretty good rally very very soon
(2:53 PM) Fulkdaddy: minutes or days?
tomthetrader: so if you have some cash may want to add to futures or options
tomthetrader: seconds /
tomthetrader: minutes
tomthetrader: hours ?
tomthetrader: nothing goes for days does it /
tomthetrader: but the condition is wound pretty tight
tomthetrader: and it may pop at anytime
tomthetrader: 100 down could mean 100 up
tomthetrader: there is 'tension on the tape'
(2:56 PM) csu30: NASDAQ sitting on its lower BB
tomthetrader: they are clobberrring it
tomthetrader: RUT hanging on
(3:10 PM) berniectx: someone got out of there cage!
tomthetrader: lot of tension on the tape
tomthetrader: volume UP UP UP
(3:13 PM) Fulkdaddy: Buy here, TOm?
tomthetrader: YES
tomthetrader: YES YES
(3:15 PM) Fulkdaddy: Long NQ's
(3:15 PM) billb1947: long nq
(3:15 PM) TraderTim: Longer NQs
(3:17 PM) thomas_Poland: die bears
(3:17 PM) billb1947: holy sh..
(3:19 PM) thomas_Poland: what bill?
(3:20 PM) Fulkdaddy: We had a quick drop Thomas
(3:21 PM) thomas_Poland: and Bill just got heart attack?
(3:22 PM) youngamerican68_1: anyone who has there stops at LOD may be very angry here
(3:23 PM) thomas_Poland: in two days we will see 2195
(3:23 PM) thomas_Poland: 1295
(3:23 PM) thomas_Poland: hehe
(3:23 PM) TraderTim: I kept stops off as per Tom
(3:23 PM) thomas_Poland: 200 sma
(3:23 PM) thomas_Poland: now
(3:24 PM) berniectx: very quick action here!!
(3:24 PM) thomas_Poland: I will stop draw this average on my charts
(3:24 PM) thomas_Poland: maybe they will not make problems
(3:25 PM) billb1947: almost made 1264
(3:25 PM) thomas_Poland: almost
(3:25 PM) thomas_Poland: I have order in to buy
(3:26 PM) billb1947: me 2
(3:26 PM) thomas_Poland: but if we finish somewhere here I will get this at night or in the morning?
(3:27 PM) nimesh_: thanks helli, makes sense
(3:28 PM) nimesh_: wong window, sorry
(3:30 PM) thomas_Poland: really ... I will start to buy trading strategy around only 200 sma
(3:30 PM) thomas_Poland: on 5 min chart
(3:30 PM) thomas_Poland: nimesh .. stop using porn paltalk rooms and trade for money
tomthetrader: very active trade
tomthetrader: pulled off 16 trades in lesss than 10 minutes on YM '
tomthetrader: pretty amazing
(3:33 PM) berniectx: wow hope all good
tomthetrader: fortunately
tomthetrader: we did get positive YM 2x
(3:33 PM) berniectx: would not think otherwise with the maestro!!
tomthetrader: as long as 1265 holds now
tomthetrader: we should have shaken both Bulls and Bears
(3:34 PM) TraderTim: they have everyone shaking
tomthetrader: everyone see what exactly happened in that market ..and why we should print this chat and read and study charts /
(3:35 PM) berniectx: yes...
(3:35 PM) thomas_Poland: no ?
(3:35 PM) thomas_Poland: explain Tom
tomthetrader: we built up the classic "tension" on the tape that had to blow ...traders had Billions flowing in Fast FAST market conditions that really only the insane can handle or the very lucky
(3:36 PM) thomas_Poland: really I think I know but want to hear it from the masta himself
(3:36 PM) thomas_Poland: or very good Tom .. like us
(3:36 PM) thomas_Poland:
(3:36 PM) berniectx: or the TTT crowd
(3:36 PM) thomas_Poland: you see?
tomthetrader: LEH +
(3:36 PM) thomas_Poland: we even think the same
tomthetrader: Banks
(3:37 PM) thomas_Poland: Tom .. what is cassic 'tension' on the tape?
(3:37 PM) thomas_Poland: forking 200 sma !
(3:37 PM) thomas_Poland: I'm mad
tomthetrader: GILD calls anyone buy the GDQKJ ?
tomthetrader: 10 contracts long ES in Main Fund traded for gains6 ES up
tomthetrader: 3k
(3:40 PM) TraderTim: I am slowly unloading
(3:41 PM) Fulkdaddy: No wonder the market stopped going up!
(3:42 PM) thomas_Poland: 15 min to go to 1290
(3:43 PM) TraderTim: the LULL
tomthetrader: me too
tomthetrader: classic tension on the tape
tomthetrader: we will discuss
(3:45 PM) TraderTim: amazing
(3:45 PM) TraderTim: you have to tell us what is happening when it is over
(3:45 PM) TraderTim: it froze
tomthetrader: and you guys will all feel this one day as well as i do
(3:45 PM) berniectx: you are probably exhausted Tom!
tomthetrader: like knowing you are in the right fishing spot
(3:45 PM) erndog9: been in meetings. trying to figure out what is going on. Expecting a move up now from here Tom???
(3:47 PM) thomas_Poland: When we will discuss?
(3:47 PM) thomas_Poland: I guess this tension is still there .. right on 200 sma
(3:48 PM) erndog9: I see 200 ma at 1280 on 5 mm chart???
(3:48 PM) thomas_Poland: and I on 1274
(3:48 PM) thomas_Poland: 1273
(3:49 PM) berniectx: Pickens on Bloomberg oil to rise over $150 within year
(3:49 PM) csu30: 60 minute VIX MACD crossing down (mkt should go up); new high ticks (>1,000) @3:40
(3:49 PM) TraderTim: Pickens may be right due to "Peak Oil" but a lot can happen during that year
(3:50 PM) berniectx: yes plus he is selling his "plan"
tomthetrader: Craig ...tracking spx /
(3:52 PM) berniectx: AD positive +13
(3:52 PM) csu30: Harbinger of things to come, hopefully
tomthetrader: YM I am about done with for this year !
tomthetrader: wow
tomthetrader: OK lets talk
(3:54 PM) syzygy111: y
(3:54 PM) csu30: y
(3:54 PM) Grey Guru: y
(3:54 PM) erndog9: y
(3:54 PM) ajayvee: y
(3:54 PM) aszager: y
(3:54 PM) brownmj21: y
(3:54 PM) infos2: y
(3:54 PM) TraderTim: y
(3:54 PM) PhotosbyDill: y
(3:54 PM) thomas_Poland: y
(3:54 PM) berniectx: y
(3:54 PM) Michael TTT: yes
(3:54 PM) gerry204: y
(3:54 PM) billb1947: y
(3:54 PM) les13436: y
(3:54 PM) breadman8401: y
(3:55 PM) erndog9: still 100% long?
(3:56 PM) erndog9: thx
(3:56 PM) Fulkdaddy: Yes long at 1826.75
(3:56 PM) TraderTim: Oh yeh . .
(3:57 PM) aszager: bought qld at 71.05
(3:57 PM) TraderTim: did everything but YM (ES/NQ/ER2)
(3:57 PM) thomas_Poland: Tom you are the best !!!
(3:57 PM) thomas_Poland:
(3:57 PM) TraderTim: the LULL was palatable
(3:58 PM) thomas_Poland: Tom did you just say something about tension on the tape?
(3:58 PM) thomas_Poland: and I missed it ?
(3:58 PM) thomas_Poland: And you did not make sure i'm listening?
(3:59 PM) thomas_Poland: I'm mad on TTT
(3:59 PM) thomas_Poland:
(3:59 PM) youngamerican68_1: tension=fear?
(3:59 PM) thomas_Poland: tomorrow 1290
(4:00 PM) thomas_Poland: I'm calling
(4:01 PM) thomas_Poland: Tom I missed you lesson about Tension on the tape
(4:01 PM) billb1947: thomas-he said it was a feeling-without a signal
(4:02 PM) thomas_Poland: so I feel tension on the tape all the time
(4:02 PM) erndog9: uyg a buy???
(4:03 PM) erndog9: too late??? for uyg?
(4:05 PM) youngamerican68_1: Thomas can we get a rundown of current trader's positions
(4:06 PM) thomas_Poland: a minute
(4:07 PM) billb1947: probably not good to hold long before ADP??
(4:08 PM) Michael TTT: So does the tension relieve itself up or down???
(4:08 PM) thomas_Poland: 1000 QLD at 73.75; 1000 QLD at 72.85; 2 NQ long at 1851; 50 QQQLS at 3.06; 40 QQQLS at 3.02; 60 QQQLS at 2.92; 100 QQQLS at 2.81
(4:09 PM) Michael TTT: Think the trend up for next day or two??
(4:09 PM) thomas_Poland: 25 GDQKJ at 3.90; 30 KHQJW at 1.68
(4:09 PM) thomas_Poland: 3 NQ long at 1831
(4:09 PM) thomas_Poland: 20 ABXIF at 2.15
(4:09 PM) thomas_Poland: 3 NQ long at 1820
(4:10 PM) thomas_Poland: That is all!
(4:10 PM) thomas_Poland: Tomorrow 1290!
(4:10 PM) thomas_Poland:
(4:11 PM) thomas_Poland: sound weak TTT?
(4:11 PM) thomas_Poland:
(4:11 PM) thomas_Poland: come on!
(4:11 PM) berniectx: Tom get your are the best!!!
(4:12 PM) thomas_Poland: Bernie 'people' from Mars do not need to rest!
(4:12 PM) thomas_Poland:
(4:12 PM) berniectx: true..get the diet coke and watch CNBC
(4:13 PM) thomas_Poland: better watch '24 hours'
(4:13 PM) thomas_Poland:
(4:13 PM) DE_TTT: News coming out of Citigroup Tech Conf was generally cautious....hurt Q's today
(4:13 PM) pupster1: UYG looks good to me against yesterday and todays lows if you're willing to risk that much. Weekly looks good as it looks as if it's coming out of a Bullish Wedge.
(4:15 PM) DE_TTT: I like SMH for a snapback here, though...ridiculously oversold
(4:16 PM) DE_TTT: Citi Tech tomorrow may be a bit more upbeat...HPQ, IBM, QCOM, MSFT
(4:16 PM) DE_TTT: Tomorrow
(4:17 PM) thomas_Poland: how do you know that long term smart money?
(4:17 PM) thomas_Poland: volume?
(4:17 PM) DE_TTT: IBM lunch keynote, MSFT late afternoon keynote, HPQ at 9:15am, Qcom at 1:45pm
(4:19 PM) thomas_Poland: thanks
(4:20 PM) Michael TTT: Thanks Tom.
(4:20 PM) pointfisher: Thanks Tom
(4:20 PM) DE_TTT: Thanks, T
tomthetrader: Thank you
tomthetrader: I am just a fat old man talking war stories to himself without you guys
tomthetrader: I appreciate the opportunity to share my bits of knowledge and experience with you
tomthetrader: Good day TTT out
(4:22 PM) TraderTim: You are the best Sir Tom!!!!
tomthetrader: Thanks Tim
tomthetrader: hope we are OK

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