Thursday, September 11, 2008


9:58 PM) tomthetrader: Zags ..thinking speculation is pretty heavy in both sides of the 2x ETFs ?

(9:59 PM) pupster: no risk on NVTL.....6 is the line in the sand there barring any unforseen event in afterhours on any given day.

(10:00 PM) pupster: nice gap fill to be had possibly also to @ 8

(10:04 PM) tomthetrader: anyway I was trying to ask Zags about the premium on his covered calls

(10:05 PM) tomthetrader: etc ...and the widening of the BB into opex showing there could be a big move soon

(10:06 PM) pupster: I sure do hope we get some up soon....would make things easier. what are your thoughts Tom.

(10:06 PM) tomthetrader: tomthetrader: I am thinking it could CRASH

tomthetrader: I think the widening of these monthly bands and increase in premium players are paying to take part means something BIG is afoot soon

(10:07 PM) tomthetrader: It is very earily similar to several other Crashes

(10:07 PM) tomthetrader: where weak markets lead to very weak markets

(10:07 PM) TraderTim: right you are, it is always during a period of weakness that the big crashes occur

(10:07 PM) tomthetrader: everyone thinks it will happen in October ..I say if it happens it could be by next thursday

(10:08 PM) pupster: qqq weekly chart sitting at support line from mid 2006

(10:08 PM) TraderTim: it has that "fragile" feeling to it . . .only thing missing is the Black Swan (unexpected) catalyst

(10:08 PM) tomthetrader: I have a bad feeling the last few days that it just will not stop as everyone finally bails

(10:08 PM) tomthetrader: and I think it comes from across the pond

(10:08 PM) tomthetrader: and Asia

(10:09 PM) tomthetrader: and very soon

(10:09 PM) TraderTim: that is why you slowed it down with size and tightening things

(10:09 PM) tomthetrader: yes

(10:09 PM) TraderTim: CASH or some serious HEDGES are needed then

(10:09 PM) TraderTim: thx for sharing this . . . I could tell you were sensing something . . .

(10:10 PM) tomthetrader: and will go short after "playing out ' the longs tomorrow hopefully with a patriotic rise into Friday then a Meltdown friday to friday taking out all stops to 1180 spx

(10:10 PM) TraderTim: wow . . .

(10:10 PM) TraderTim: I actually like the GamePlan

(10:11 PM) pupster: the weekly S& :^)

(10:11 PM) tomthetrader: tomthetrader: I think since WED of opex is usually the most Bullish if the drop doesn't begin by then I will go 200% short

(10:11 PM) pupster: weekly S&P and Q's look like it could actually happen.

(10:11 PM) tomthetrader: But we could break down any minute literally

(10:12 PM) tomthetrader: we are on a buy signal but got it satisfied

(10:12 PM) TraderTim: we should be very wary of holding anything too long until this passes

(10:12 PM) tomthetrader: and noware on a run up to overbpought as early as 1250

(10:13 PM) tomthetrader: yes ..I amreally going to work on this and make sure we start cutting back tomorrow and make sure dave knows ...we have a plan .

(10:13 PM) tomthetrader: TTT out

(10:14 PM) TraderTim: later thx

(10:14 PM) tomthetrader: aszager: agree people are not scared enough yet for the low but there could be a brief up move to draw people in and then collapse

tomthetrader: yes nice up even to 1250 tomorrow would get us overbought enough to get slapped and kicked down

tomthetrader: but if we run up to next Wd it will be a butt licker

tomthetrader: kicker

(10:14 PM) tomthetrader: sorry butt kicker

(10:15 PM) pupster: what do you mean by that as far as into next Wed.

(10:16 PM) pupster: butt kicker cooment.

(10:18 PM) tomthetrader: Wednesdays are typically the best UP days in a typically up week during opex

(10:18 PM) aszager: Let us hope that there is a bullish pop which will allow us to jump in deeper with inverse double etfs

(10:18 PM) tomthetrader: so if we survive above 1222 til then and maybe 1250 -1276 ...we will short like no tomorrow

(10:18 PM) pupster: so do you think a possible up into next Wed.?

(10:19 PM) pupster: *** if this happens then I can see another 8% down and the QID's go to 58 a 16% move right into resistance on the weeklys. ***

(10:19 PM) tomthetrader: yes ..but if any news event occurs - in the next 72 hours will Crash and nor 300 points more like 1000 -1200

(10:19 PM) tomthetrader: QID was such a steal at 37.50

(10:20 PM) tomthetrader: We should have kept that as our core hedge since last summer

(10:20 PM) tomthetrader: Oh well

(10:20 PM) tomthetrader: I am to bed

(10:20 PM) pupster: live and burn. i mean learn.

(10:20 PM) tomthetrader: rough times here

(10:20 PM) tomthetrader: I hope to God I am wrong

(10:20 PM) pupster: nite. I hear ya do I.

(10:21 PM) aszager: What is also very possible is that it penetrates the lows scares everyone out and then we get the brief runup after stops are taken out. Tom look what you would have made just buying dug alone

(10:21 PM) aszager: Months ago you talked about the commodity collapse

(10:22 PM) tomthetrader: Yes the DUG call in retrospect could have made usall rich ...I was early but right

(10:22 PM) tomthetrader: UNG early but right

(10:23 PM) tomthetrader: now this crash ..hopefully wrong

(10:23 PM) tomthetrader: good night all

(10:23 PM) pupster: bye. in the morning....hope the indicators catch this right.

(10:24 PM) aszager: There is a good chance the dow 10000 is violated

(10:24 PM) aszager: good night

(10:24 PM) tomthetrader: yes ...if we continue up on the buy signal it should hit sell up 100 YM

(10:25 PM) aszager: That would be great because the vix needs to come down and the public needs to get blase

(10:48 PM) tomthetrader: ES U8 [10] E-MINI S&P 500 Sep '08 22:39:00 EDT 1,228.75 -4.50 1,232.25 1,234.50 1,228.25

(10:58 PM) nimesh_: not looking good at all

(10:58 PM) nimesh_: nq bid 1928

(8:34 AM) Alert: Hi , Welcome to TTT

(8:34 AM) TraderTim: 50/50 odds of .25 cut by end of year . . . maybe new song will be rate cut (inflate your way out)
(8:35 AM) thomas_Poland: we have very nice divergence in 3 day RSI
(8:36 AM) thomas_Poland: very often it means reversal
tomthetrader: As you know we shorted the futures last night and this morning but it has to be UNOFFICIAL.....we are 100% cash out of all positions at8:00am and short the ES YM 50% 5 contracts from 1230.00 level .
(8:36 AM) TraderTim: what time did you short
(8:37 AM) thomas_Poland: so those 1230 ES are not official Tom?
(8:37 AM) thomas_Poland: MSN does not work on my side
(8:38 AM) aszag: I bought some qld 2 days ago which certainly is under water at 65.2 but I got almost 2 points on the covered Sept 65 call and I also wrote the naked Sept 69 qld call and got .8 for that. I am hedged also with a lot of twm and naked bkx options
(8:38 AM) Alert: An admin joined the room: mickymax_ttt
tomthetrader: Can't be Zags knows and Tim can tell you all
tomthetrader: Doc and Gary
tomthetrader: Pupster
(8:39 AM) thomas_Poland: Do I need prove Tom?
(8:39 AM) thomas_Poland:
(8:39 AM) thomas_Poland: I know you did it .. just wanted to be sure that these are not official
(8:40 AM) aszag: Tom was very negative last night in the chat fearful of a hit in the market
tomthetrader: I think we had 8 or so out of 38 that saw the messages
(8:41 AM) TraderTim: yep
(8:42 AM) billb1947: i saw them later-at least we have a plan but 1250 today is looking less and less probable
tomthetrader: and we wer aware but not sure we had a reverse trade on at 1222.00 if things went bad yesterday and was still on....unless wwork 24/7 we will never get every move in this market...I went to bed at 4:00am up at 5:00am and just now woke up
tomthetrader: Not worth the wear on my old body
tomthetrader: I am 50% short and very very worried
(8:43 AM) aszag: Tom I still think there will be a pop next week because sentiment is deteriorating and then further collapse in the next month or so
tomthetrader: I think the Crash is on for 7-21 days to DOW 11,000
(8:44 AM) thomas_Poland: Tom you said before you want to do something on youtube. What do you plan?
(8:45 AM) aszag: Tom you said 11000. That is only 200 points away. Do you mean 10000?
tomthetrader: I had done a video on Sunday night ...ask Doc and ssny about it ...about the upcoming Crash and why we should be prepard for 11k and 10k before oCT
tomthetrader: yES
tomthetrader: ONE AT A TIME
tomthetrader: and quickly 20-500 a dat for several days
(8:46 AM) thomas_Poland: when you want us to watch the video?
(8:46 AM) thomas_Poland:
(8:48 AM) aszag: Tom if you are worried then the world must be frantic so there may be a brief pause next week before the collapse
(8:49 AM) aszag: The low may be in for today in the premarket
(8:54 AM) DE_TTT: Any thoughts on the Main Fund? Stay the course for now?
(8:56 AM) Fulkdaddy: I am a bit behind...I am 100% this correct Tom?
(8:57 AM) Fulkdaddy: Too late to short?
(8:59 AM) Alert: LIVE uninterrupted coverage of the 9/11 service from Ground Zero in Paltalk Studio B in the Shows and Events section NOW
(9:03 AM) Fulkdaddy: Doug Kass at 8:38 am: Err on the side of conservatism in your investing and trading; better yet, sit on your hands until the skies clear.
(9:03 AM) Alert: This is a G rated room intended for a General Audience including minors. Offensive language is not permitted.
(9:03 AM) Alert: Hi , Welcome to TTT

(9:03 AM) RV_trader: reminder futures rollver - should be trading december contract now
tomthetrader: Main Fund going 40% short
(9:04 AM) RV_trader: sept on the board until next friday but all volume will be in december
tomthetrader: YES all contracts DEC DUTURES NOW
tomthetrader: As described in the e-mail
tomthetrader: DEC Futures
(9:05 AM) nimesh_: ouch, nig red
(9:05 AM) nimesh_: gm all
(9:05 AM) Fulkdaddy: Rev Shark at 8:50 am:Most of the pain of a bear market is caused by the refusal to accept the fact that we are in one. If investors would simply embrace the fact that we are in a downtrending market and may not hit bottom for a while, they will relieve themselves of much pain and suffering.
tomthetrader: No doubt
(9:06 AM) nimesh_: what is the game plan
tomthetrader: we have certainly accepted and traded it with hopes it would end but we go again .1222 -1200 1150 1100 ?
tomthetrader: get your shorties on
tomthetrader: BUY DEC Futures Short
(9:07 AM) nimesh_: tom we are closing all longs and going short?
tomthetrader: on any rallies or IWM puts atm
tomthetrader: Yes
(9:07 AM) thomas_Poland: Am I going to be the only bull here?
tomthetrader: yes
(9:07 AM) thomas_Poland: hmm ..
tomthetrader: msn Thomas ?
tomthetrader: was down
(9:08 AM) billb1947: i'm long for the moment thomas
(9:08 AM) thomas_Poland: I cant connect to MSN
(9:08 AM) thomas_Poland: it says 'service is not ready' or something like that
tomthetrader: was down worldwide this a.m.
(9:08 AM) TraderTim: what is happening on MSN???
(9:08 AM) thomas_Poland: short MSN
(9:09 AM) thomas_Poland: We have date Tim
(9:09 AM) thomas_Poland:
(9:09 AM) thomas_Poland: Tom in his pink dress
(9:09 AM) Fulkdaddy: ES is right at the Friday low
tomthetrader: does anyone have chat from last night 8-12:00am ?
(9:09 AM) thomas_Poland: and I only in T shirt
(9:09 AM) TraderTim: I will check
(9:09 AM) aszag: I was on with you late Tom but I don't have it
(9:10 AM) thomas_Poland: a big party
(9:10 AM) TraderTim: great discussion
(9:10 AM) TraderTim: last night
tomthetrader: If anyone can post last night please do
(9:11 AM) aszag: We are all in agreement that it is down but the question is will it be before or after options exp that is the big down
(9:11 AM) nimesh_: i guess no 9/11 rally
tomthetrader: Doc and gary are still sleepy
(9:12 AM) TraderTim: zags couldn't we see a rally before the drop
tomthetrader: No none cares nimesh ...hedge funds have the world on the run
(9:13 AM) Fulkdaddy: Tom, you are correct..the more I read about hedge funds and how they make their leveraging and not sound stock analysis...the riskier the unwind is when they are forced to liquidate.
(9:14 AM) aszag: I would love a little pop next week to add to my double inverse etfs
tomthetrader: yes Dave and I should have put the risksout to all of us sooner
(9:14 AM) TraderTim: the Great UNWIND
tomthetrader: as these funds have no way to perform except to kill everyone in their path
tomthetrader: they will be regulated soon
(9:14 AM) Fulkdaddy: Tom, one thing I have learned in my life is we always do our absolute best at the time we are doing it.
tomthetrader: but until ...they will try to get this market to 0
(9:15 AM) Fulkdaddy: It is obvious to us all that you care about us and teaching us how to survive in this new type of market.
(9:15 AM) Fulkdaddy: You are incredibly smart and I appreciate all you have done for me
(9:15 AM) syzygy111: y
(9:15 AM) wclegg: y
(9:15 AM) brownmj21: y
(9:15 AM) lkmcd1: y
(9:15 AM) TraderTim: y
(9:15 AM) bloomert: y
(9:15 AM) berniectx: y
(9:16 AM) Fulkdaddy: y
(9:17 AM) aszag: y
(9:20 AM) nimesh_: how many short es contracts?
(9:22 AM) ssny2004: 950 is my new eventual target
(9:23 AM) aszag: If it goes down 15-20% that may lead to the start of a bull market later this year or early next but first blood
(9:23 AM) ssny2004: agreed zags
(9:26 AM) nimesh_: are we going straight down at open
(9:26 AM) pupster1: friend and neighbor remembered...god bless him and family.
tomthetrader: God Bless Them
(9:27 AM) pupster1: yes and all.....
(9:28 AM) ssny2004: amen
(9:28 AM) Fulkdaddy: I am 100% cash. Enter short now, Tom? Or wait for a bounce...that may never come???
(9:29 AM) Fulkdaddy: I have too much "speculative blood"...
(9:29 AM) Fulkdaddy: Bullish?
(9:29 AM) Fulkdaddy: Whew!
(9:29 AM) Docqb: whew, i feel better
(9:30 AM) Docqb: okie doke
(9:30 AM) Docqb: sorry im late long gas lines hurricane
(9:31 AM) Docqb: we basically have to fill the gap at around 1000 sp 500
(9:31 AM) Docqb: and 10000 dow
(9:31 AM) Docqb: hopefully quick as tom and i would like
(9:31 AM) Docqb: we hit the top of the downward trend line all week and have been failing miserabely miserabley
(9:32 AM) Docqb: tom, do we agree that once it breaks 1200 will accelerate quickly ?
(9:32 AM) Docqb: that enough tom ?
tomthetrader: Yes
tomthetrader: No keep going please
(9:34 AM) Docqb: i think we should get short and stay short until around those areas and then reassess
(9:34 AM) Docqb: i can make a case for lower but have to wait and see
(9:34 AM) Docqb: tom, we'll try to get a measurement on the next bounce point
(9:34 AM) Fulkdaddy: How about TLT?
(9:34 AM) Fulkdaddy: Flight to quality?
(9:35 AM) Docqb: that one helps dave
(9:35 AM) PhotosbyDill: good job doc
tomthetrader: again we will get 30 min readinfgs to add to short long positions
(9:36 AM) nimesh_: why is nasdaung rallyuing
(9:36 AM) Docqb: thanks, sorry got here late, long gas lines
(9:36 AM) nimesh_: rut weakest this morning
(9:36 AM) Docqb: people freakin out about the hurricane
(9:37 AM) Docqb: do you see it accelerating after 1200 tom ?
(9:37 AM) ssny2004: I am hoping for 1250 but no confidence
(9:38 AM) Docqb: agree strongly
(9:38 AM) TraderTim: would GOLD do well during this "crash" scenario or will commodity downtrend keep it from being a panic hedge?
(9:40 AM) Fulkdaddy: Tom, what made you change so abruptly last night Tom?
(9:40 AM) TraderTim: dzz
(9:40 AM) TraderTim: 2x short gold
(9:40 AM) Fulkdaddy: To a crash type from possibility of a new bull a week or so back?
(9:40 AM) csu30: Would liquidation also include natural gas holdings (UNG, EP)
(9:41 AM) TraderTim: THOMAS we are almost at your 1213
(9:41 AM) thomas_Poland: I know
(9:41 AM) thomas_Poland: we were there before
(9:41 AM) TraderTim: yep
(9:42 AM) Docqb: look at VIX
(9:42 AM) Docqb: fed is out of options
(9:43 AM) TraderTim: How will the 14 indicators look as we approach the "crash" scenrio. Overbought? or Oversold going more oversold?
(9:44 AM) ssny2004: VIX at 25.90
(9:45 AM) Docqb: remember, if you look back historically, mkt don't crash from overbought, but oversold
(9:46 AM) Docqb: this mkt is extremely dangerous, i think that would be the most important point
(9:46 AM) Docqb: even if we don't make money on this move, keep your powder dry, excellent buys in coming months
(9:47 AM) csu30: How will NG holdings fare (UNG, EP) - solely a function of NG prices or affected by the downdraft?
(9:47 AM) Docqb: tom, gary and i are also noticing that oil and vix are running inversely
(9:47 AM) Docqb: we are watching for when that changes
(9:48 AM) TraderTim: I asked above, how do you see the indicators behaving during the "crash" scenario? OB? or OS?
(9:50 AM) TraderTim: How do you play the BOX during shorting scenario?
(9:51 AM) TraderTim: so you short 1230 and cover 1200
(9:51 AM) RV_trader: TLT divergent to the market not making new higher high daily with market lower lows and nadaq with some realtive strength?
(9:51 AM) nimesh_: i'm using er2
(9:52 AM) TraderTim: I like that idea of selling only 1 contract at bottom of box and letting the other one run
(9:54 AM) thomas_Poland: let us see the viedo tom
(9:54 AM) thomas_Poland:
(9:55 AM) pupster1: Camtasia Tom...
(9:55 AM) thomas_Poland: covered my long at breakeven
(9:59 AM) Alert: LIVE uninterrupted coverage of the 9/11 ceremony from Ground Zero continues in Paltalk Studio B in the Special Events section now
(10:01 AM) thomas_Poland: I covered so they can start running up
(10:01 AM) ssny2004: covered my shorts
(10:01 AM) thomas_Poland:
(10:01 AM) ssny2004:
(10:02 AM) thomas_Poland: I think we will have short term bottom today or tomorrow
(10:02 AM) thomas_Poland: tomorrow better
(10:03 AM) thomas_Poland: at 1186??
(10:06 AM) Docqb: tom I hope the research we've been doing really helps the room profit
(10:07 AM) pupster1: If they don't rally the market on a day like today....I'd be surprised.
(10:07 AM) billb1947: how did you determine the bottom of today's box tom? Is it because the previous low was there or was there a chart indicator?
(10:07 AM) Docqb: pup, they might, that's one of their old tricks, that's what i'm watching for
(10:08 AM) thomas_Poland: me to popster
tomthetrader: Bill Yes
(10:08 AM) Docqb: but if the do, i'm gonna short it with 10 trucks
(10:08 AM) thomas_Poland: but they got me out
(10:08 AM) thomas_Poland:
(10:09 AM) thomas_Poland: anybody have gun I can use?
(10:09 AM) thomas_Poland: just want to shoot my foot
(10:09 AM) pupster1: gotta feeling TP they will.
(10:09 AM) thomas_Poland: or head
(10:09 AM) Docqb: thomas, ya got yer pink shorts on ?
(10:09 AM) Docqb: i got mine on
(10:09 AM) thomas_Poland: no I was long 1214 with target 1220-25
(10:09 AM) thomas_Poland: and I got stopped out at breakeven
(10:09 AM) Fulkdaddy: Rallied up to the downtrend line
(10:10 AM) thomas_Poland: and now we are where I wanted ??
(10:11 AM) ssny2004: i think the prevailing sentiment is that any move up will be shorted with intensity, so it is starting to look unlikely we will have a big move
(10:13 AM) Docqb: pup, the may rally it today, and even the next 2 - 3 days (although unlikely), but ultimately, with fundamentals so poor, down looks like the only option
(10:13 AM) Docqb: unless we take up a pool in the room and do some capital infusion
(10:15 AM) pupster1: I said it last night in chat...weeklys look like they are heading down big.
(10:15 AM) ssny2004: the ballsy trader would look for a point up on LEH
(10:16 AM) Docqb: and not to take up a political soapbox, most people missed the hardly publicized news story about denver minerals (a fed agency) giving the keys to the henhouse to the oil companies
(10:16 AM) Docqb: that really chaps my arse, that's our hard earned tax dollars
(10:17 AM) Docqb: having sex with female oil company execs ? give me a break.....
(10:17 AM) ssny2004: they're still digesting the huge gift to Bill Gross & pals from Paulson that is the Frannie bailout
(10:19 AM) billb1947: sounds like Ike will be fairly nasty
(10:20 AM) Docqb: yes, gas lines are already an hour long in certain parts of town
(10:21 AM) nimesh_: tom, nice rally
(10:22 AM) billb1947: evacuating galveston and so. houston
(10:23 AM) Docqb: yes, i remeber the Rita evacuation, what a disaster
(10:23 AM) RV_trader: RIMM rocket ship
tomthetrader: I love RIMM just cannot time it
(10:26 AM) ssny2004: y
(10:26 AM) brownmj21: y
(10:26 AM) syzygy111: y
(10:26 AM) PhotosbyDill: y
(10:26 AM) csu30: y
(10:26 AM) berniectx: y
(10:26 AM) bogdan k: y
(10:27 AM) billb1947: got it
(10:27 AM) les13436: y
(10:27 AM) erndog9: where is this chart?
(10:27 AM) ssny2004: got it
(10:27 AM) syzygy111: got chart
(10:27 AM) Fulkdaddy: Got it
(10:27 AM) erndog9: yes, thanks just now
(10:27 AM) bogdan k: y
(10:29 AM) Fulkdaddy: When do we short the dollar? 80 is major resistance, going back many years. Louise Yamada pointed this out as the major resistance.
(10:30 AM) Fulkdaddy: Looks like 2001 on the same chart!
(10:30 AM) Docqb: Dave, exactly, those who don't learn from history, are doomed to repeat it...
(10:31 AM) Fulkdaddy: Crossing the BBandLE like in '01
(10:31 AM) Fulkdaddy: What is BBandLe mean?
(10:31 AM) PhotosbyDill: breaking up tom
(10:31 AM) Docqb: just some strategy were working on for the room Dave, we'll get back to you on that one
(10:32 AM) ssny2004: bollinger band Dave
(10:32 AM) ssny2004: LE is long entry
tomthetrader: again any questions on the chart
(10:32 AM) ssny2004: SE is short
(10:32 AM) Docqb: but essentially, this next down leg should be the remaining 20% of the correction
(10:32 AM) PhotosbyDill: Ignore that buy signal
(10:33 AM) ssny2004: yes
(10:33 AM) Docqb: most importantly, see the new rising trend line in the dow and sp, that should be where we buy and bounce hard
(10:33 AM) PhotosbyDill: It is a strategy in TradeStation and only works on short term charts. But does serve to help learning
(10:34 AM) ssny2004: doc that would be 1000, makes sense
(10:34 AM) Docqb: we are working on the short term timing of the next big up and down move
(10:34 AM) Docqb: we don't have to go straight down from here, but we could and just want everyone to be on alert
(10:35 AM) nimesh_: tpm, what was our box trade for es?
(10:35 AM) Docqb: best case scenario, and i'll use QLD as an indicator, we come up for a few days, to say 1250 as tom and i had discussed, that would be a gift short
(10:36 AM) Docqb: but remember, the floor is looking at the same things we're looking at
(10:36 AM) Docqb: and they love to hit the brakes hard and the accelerator hard
(10:37 AM) Docqb: weak hands
(10:37 AM) les13436: Paltalked logged me off during your audio can you just bottom line the chart for me in chat? thx
(10:37 AM) Docqb: i would love to see QLD rally to 69ish here
(10:38 AM) PhotosbyDill: We are at a very indecisive point right now so watch both QID and QLD
(10:38 AM) PhotosbyDill: OK?
(10:38 AM) Docqb: my take for today though, is they horse around till a little after lunch, and then get nasty
tomthetrader: straddles are OK but outright shorts and trading the OB OS may work out well as VIX 30.00 is not far away
(10:39 AM) Docqb: but it is 9-11, so a specious variable that's hard to account for technically
(10:39 AM) PhotosbyDill: Much of what you are seeing can be learned and save alot of vomit is spreads
(10:39 AM) PhotosbyDill: Using Spreads
tomthetrader: great thing is this will have us more intellectually prepared for the actions of the next 3-4 weeks and we will see a new Bull by Xmas
(10:40 AM) PhotosbyDill: Now they starting to bring up QLD and sell off QID
(10:40 AM) Docqb: i agree, the feds don't want this to drop all at once, so water torture, spreads work great for that, wait till they break and show their hand in a big way
(10:40 AM) nimesh_: what is going on, trin under 1, showing accumaltion?
(10:41 AM) pupster1: mentioned HUM in last nights chat...pretty good relative performance so far.
(10:41 AM) thomas_Poland: short term bottom tomorrow or even today nimesh
(10:41 AM) PhotosbyDill: Watch for double bottoms on QID and double top on QLD where will it go
(10:41 AM) PhotosbyDill: 500t chart
(10:42 AM) Docqb: if we can get to sp 1250 roughly, would be a gift to the room, they will take it down fast, roughly, at that level
(10:43 AM) Docqb: but the big confirmatiion on all this, look at all the forward guidances being revised downward
(10:43 AM) PhotosbyDill: Any question?
tomthetrader: MCD up and is a possible short candidate
(10:43 AM) PhotosbyDill: Absolutely Doc
(10:43 AM) nimesh_: ndx strongest
(10:44 AM) nimesh_: is someone talking?
(10:44 AM) Docqb: nimesh, yes, us, probably too much..... lol
(10:44 AM) nimesh_: haha
(10:44 AM) thomas_Poland: nimesh you hear voices???
(10:44 AM) nimesh_: , no i have no audio
(10:44 AM) Fulkdaddy: Do we have stops on our futures?
(10:44 AM) nimesh_: was wondering if i need to restart
(10:45 AM) nimesh_: thomas, i always hear voices
(10:45 AM) Docqb: dave good question
(10:45 AM) thomas_Poland: that is not good nimesh
(10:45 AM) PhotosbyDill: Anyone seeing the tests on double bottom and tops?
(10:45 AM) thomas_Poland:
(10:46 AM) nimesh_: hehe
(10:46 AM) PhotosbyDill: what is VIX doing vs XOI
(10:46 AM) thomas_Poland: Tim ?
(10:46 AM) TraderTim: Yes THOMAS
(10:46 AM) thomas_Poland: How did you like my morning call of 1213??
(10:46 AM) TraderTim: it was sweet
(10:46 AM) Docqb: any one in the room interested in some basic intra ideas
(10:46 AM) thomas_Poland: I said it is very important level?
(10:47 AM) thomas_Poland: And I did go long and did not make money ??
(10:47 AM) nimesh_: o, this hurts
(10:47 AM) PhotosbyDill: Hi Thomas when you coming to stay with me. It is bow and arrow season now and maybe we could bag a BEAR. OK?
(10:47 AM) TraderTim: I understand.
(10:47 AM) Docqb: intra day ideas ?
(10:47 AM) nimesh_: sold my nq near lows
(10:47 AM) thomas_Poland: Yes Gary
tomthetrader: NDX green
(10:47 AM) PhotosbyDill: How weather in Poland today
(10:47 AM) thomas_Poland: 1213 is the most important Fib level for me
(10:48 AM) thomas_Poland: Weather is ok Gary
(10:48 AM) PhotosbyDill: hang in ther friend
tomthetrader: Intraday ideas Doc ..let em rip
(10:48 AM) Docqb: ok
(10:48 AM) thomas_Poland: no rain .. would like to ride my motorbike but have to watch prices
(10:48 AM) Docqb: wasn't sure
(10:48 AM) Docqb: let's do the 30 minute rule
(10:49 AM) PhotosbyDill: Hey Doc, you bragging about your sexual prowess?
tomthetrader: Q's up
(10:49 AM) thomas_Poland: Do we have a chance to go 1244 today?
tomthetrader: seconds ?
(10:49 AM) Docqb: if within the first 30 minutes after regular open a stock or index that has say gapped up
(10:50 AM) PhotosbyDill: Alright some one is paying attention to the QID vs QLD. I love you TOM
(10:50 AM) TraderTim: NQ really strong since 8:30am this morning
(10:50 AM) RV_trader: gap fill first Thomas 32.50
(10:50 AM) ssny2004: looks like we may get that gift 1240+
(10:50 AM) Docqb: if the run the shorts, possibly
(10:50 AM) Docqb: everyone still with me ?
(10:50 AM) thomas_Poland: RV obviously going to 1244 we have to come through 1232.50
(10:50 AM) thomas_Poland:
(10:50 AM) pupster1: GO GO far so good.
(10:50 AM) thomas_Poland: no chance it can be different
(10:50 AM) nimesh_: did they just suck in the shorts
(10:50 AM) nimesh_: and then suck in the longs?
(10:51 AM) thomas_Poland: nimesh stop!
(10:51 AM) thomas_Poland:
(10:51 AM) PhotosbyDill: I have been short QID and Long QLD since at market close and into after market
(10:51 AM) Docqb: no
(10:51 AM) thomas_Poland: Tom will kick you out
(10:51 AM) thomas_Poland:
(10:51 AM) thomas_Poland: and here it is ... 200 sma
(10:51 AM) ssny2004: nice curl!
(10:52 AM) nimesh_: haha thomas
(10:52 AM) Docqb: if a stock has gapped up, it will usually retrace within the first 30 minutes in the am
(10:52 AM) thomas_Poland: Doc VIC said if it is not filled in 15 mins there are 80% or so chance that it wil not be filled
(10:52 AM) thomas_Poland: VIC vel Sperandeo
(10:52 AM) thomas_Poland: it is a rule for him .. good one I think
(10:52 AM) RV_trader: Thomas that may not be obvious to most if they are not on dat session only
(10:53 AM) RV_trader: day
(10:53 AM) Docqb: however, if it breaks the prior day close, ie goes below it, odds are high of a intra day reversal
(10:53 AM) Docqb: stock or index will close negative
(10:53 AM) thomas_Poland: RV I was joking
(10:53 AM) Docqb: works same way for gap down
(10:53 AM) Docqb: like this morning
(10:54 AM) PhotosbyDill: I will watch to go Long QID and short QLD when turns
(10:54 AM) ssny2004: nasdaq about to go positive yeah let's get long!!!!
(10:55 AM) ssny2004: just kidding
(10:55 AM) RV_trader: here's to that pink dress
tomthetrader: YEAH
tomthetrader: YOU TUBE
tomthetrader: Thomas boy !
(10:55 AM) Docqb: so even though they are taking it up now, the gap down wasn't cleared in the first 30 min
(10:55 AM) PhotosbyDill: So I hope everyone sees that you can do spreads on stocks without option trading
(10:55 AM) thomas_Poland: did we start porn chat?
(10:55 AM) Docqb: so we want to be alert for sell off later in afternoon
(10:55 AM) thomas_Poland:
(10:55 AM) thomas_Poland: Tom .. what you tube
tomthetrader: opening gap was filled
(10:56 AM) pupster1: is that rule of thumb Doc as far as 1st 30 minutes.
tomthetrader: OIL heading to mid 90's
(10:56 AM) Docqb: yes tom, but not in the first 30 min
(10:56 AM) thomas_Poland: Tom .. on this chart you sent .. could you add few more indicators ??
(10:56 AM) thomas_Poland: just kidding
tomthetrader: we will add a daytradeshort ES at 1226
(10:57 AM) Docqb: it's not 100%, but has a high percentage rate
tomthetrader: with 1233 stop and 1200 target
(10:57 AM) thomas_Poland: how many?
(10:57 AM) thomas_Poland: 1?
tomthetrader: 1
(10:58 AM) PhotosbyDill: Out of my spread with profit now watching to reverse
(10:59 AM) PhotosbyDill: standing aside now and watching
(10:59 AM) PhotosbyDill: We having FUN YET TOM
tomthetrader: Again remember my prediction of 100.00 oil By October and 80-90 by Xmas ?
tomthetrader: DUG would have been the play of the year ?
(11:00 AM) Docqb: you know, these traders not shorting could be a real gift today
(11:00 AM) nimesh_: damn, they rally running it up
tomthetrader: and if we would have held 100% DUG we would have been having our annual meeting in miami ?
(11:01 AM) nimesh_: any "news" why it turned around
tomthetrader: up or down /
tomthetrader: Oil to $100
tomthetrader: is propping up the market but a/d line pitiful
(11:01 AM) ssny2004: dick fuld calling for an investiggation into shorts (kidding)
tomthetrader: Dick into shorts ?
(11:02 AM) PhotosbyDill: vix 25.74 xoi 1183.39
tomthetrader: 11220 YM short
tomthetrader: 1
(11:05 AM) rekon8_TTT:
***** Start Whisper
Tom, ES and YM are futures right? Going to TDWaterhouse to add funds and request to trade futures
***** End Whisper
(11:05 AM) nimesh_: ga[p fillerd on iwm
(11:06 AM) nimesh_: tom, if er2 has the most to lose, why not er2?
tomthetrader: Just due to volatility ..if you are young and can handle it i would go ER2
(11:06 AM) pupster1: had a feeling we'd see green....pure luck on my part.
(11:07 AM) nimesh_: haha, i will go with er2 then
(11:07 AM) pupster1: you guys think we can hold it?
tomthetrader: Yes ////you can replicate and add QID TWM DDXD any 2x short
tomthetrader: short the rallies guys
tomthetrader: short the rallies
(11:08 AM) pupster1: ok.
tomthetrader: 17-7 a/d -
tomthetrader: not bright news
tomthetrader: NQ doing well
(11:14 AM) Docqb: good call on the turn tom
(11:17 AM) dennis_3007: hi
tomthetrader: lot of work out there Bullhave their reasons to play too
tomthetrader: it seems like the break of 1222.00 is step 1 and 1200 step 2 nad any rallies until 1260 should be shorted
(11:18 AM) Docqb: yes
(11:20 AM) PhotosbyDill: Ya looking good TOM
(11:20 AM) berniectx: AD -1693
tomthetrader: Thank you
(11:26 AM) Docqb: bernie, you here in texas ?
(11:26 AM) greenplant: hello
(11:27 AM) berniectx: yes Dallas
(11:28 AM) berniectx: are you in Houston Doc?
(11:28 AM) Docqb: oh, good, they just put out mandatory evacuation for galvestion
(11:28 AM) Docqb: yes, galleria area
(11:28 AM) berniectx: be careful
(11:28 AM) Docqb: thanks
(11:28 AM) Docqb: been through a few of these
(11:28 AM) Docqb: i think the panic is worse than the storm
(11:29 AM) nimesh_: rumor about emergency rate cut?
(11:30 AM) Docqb: nimesh, are you serious ?
(11:30 AM) nimesh_: that is what i heard from someone
(11:30 AM) nimesh_: can u believe it
tomthetrader: the ability to hold 1222.00 is is great news ...we will have to see hwere we are at 4;00pm
(11:31 AM) Docqb: yes, they keep it up and they're gonna be out of a job soon
(11:31 AM) ssny2004: rate cut would not be well received imo - dollar/commod complex
(11:31 AM) Docqb: ssny exactly
tomthetrader: yes commodities would soar as would stocks
(11:31 AM) Docqb: and the hedgies will short the crap out of it
tomthetrader: for 30 min
(11:31 AM) Docqb: and so will i
tomthetrader: agree
(11:32 AM) ssny2004: lol tom
(11:32 AM) PhotosbyDill: Scaling in now on QID
(11:32 AM) PhotosbyDill: LONG
tomthetrader: we can't cut rates til april 2009
tomthetrader: ECB can start though today
(11:32 AM) nimesh_: ughh, i ahve made all the wrong moves today
(11:32 AM) Docqb: gary, we gotta be careful with this emergency rate cut rumor
tomthetrader: Q's green
(11:33 AM) ssny2004: nimesh the past two days I have been trading short moves on wb mer aig and made easy bucks
(11:33 AM) pupster1: have been long.
(11:33 AM) PhotosbyDill: If so will reverse again
tomthetrader: Many are still hoping 1222 .00 Holds
(11:34 AM) Docqb: you can make money either way intra day
tomthetrader: market doing a good job
(11:36 AM) pupster1: i made a decision to not and try to day trade today.
(11:36 AM) berniectx: AD bouncing -1360
(11:37 AM) pupster1: let's see if I can hold out and stay smart along the way.
(11:37 AM) Docqb: pup, probably a good idea with floor traders acting weird
(11:37 AM) pupster1: just added to UYG long
(11:37 AM) nimesh_: man, this is tough
tomthetrader: Pupster going long UYG !!!! I love it
tomthetrader: hate trading long into such a treacherous tape
tomthetrader: 43.00 on Q's ..they were so oversold
tomthetrader: es ym iwm all shortable now
tomthetrader: if you have not
(11:39 AM) thomas_Poland: my last long is not looking so stupid now
(11:41 AM) thomas_Poland: now clear 5 waves up on 5 min
(11:41 AM) pupster1: Yes Tom...long 3000 shares
(11:42 AM) pupster1: + QLD from late yesterday which I failed to add to this morning as I should have.
tomthetrader: very good trades ...very nice snap back
tomthetrader: and lets see if we can hold
tomthetrader: all indices looking to go +
(11:46 AM) nimesh_: tom, remain short, correct?
(11:46 AM) RV_trader: how's that Thomas to the tick 32.50
(11:46 AM) RV_trader: run it back the other way now
tomthetrader: Houston "best place in america to buy a home right now " on CNBC
tomthetrader: short all ralllies
(11:47 AM) Docqb: i agree 2000%
(11:47 AM) Docqb: cept for a lil wind from time to time
(11:48 AM) erndog9: do you still have es stops at 1233??
(11:48 AM) TraderTim: anyone have the new symbol for ER2 dec? ERSZ8 is not trading.
(11:48 AM) erndog9: er2z8
(11:49 AM) TraderTim: ER2Z8 I meant
(11:49 AM) wgcarr: tf on the ice
(11:49 AM) nimesh_: er2z8
(11:49 AM) nimesh_: , not trading
(11:49 AM) erndog9: tos shows /tf
(11:49 AM) TraderTim: not trading on IB
tomthetrader: we may see a options ex or some type of shortcovering rally into WEd but our odds are a failure here '
(11:49 AM) TraderTim: only sept
(11:50 AM) wgcarr: er2 moving from cme to ice
(11:50 AM) erndog9: 1233 still your stop on es?
(11:50 AM) TraderTim: that is what I heard . . .
(11:50 AM) TraderTim: sorry I keep stepping on your erndog
(11:50 AM) erndog9: or is it on the cash spx?
(11:50 AM) TraderTim: ern wants to know what is stop on ES?
tomthetrader: Cash Spx ern
tomthetrader: 1233.00
(11:50 AM) erndog9: thanks
tomthetrader: remember a big premium now in cash and DEC
(11:51 AM) pupster1: so far
(11:51 AM) erndog9: thanks
(11:52 AM) ssny2004: SP positive on cash
(11:52 AM) thomas_Poland: this is why I hate this market .. was long 1214 as a perfect trade and got out
tomthetrader: why did you exit Tomek /
(11:52 AM) ssny2004: buy buy buy
tomthetrader: Rally
(11:52 AM) pupster1: my 2 mistakes for today were not adding to QLD and buying ES's and holding them on into the close.
(11:52 AM) nimesh_: agree thomas
(11:53 AM) thomas_Poland: It moved few points in my direction Tom and I moved stop to breakeven
(11:53 AM) thomas_Poland:
tomthetrader: Q's bolted 40 cents
tomthetrader: shortcovering scare
tomthetrader: stopped on es short covered 1233.00 cash
tomthetrader: 1 contract
(11:56 AM) TraderTim: Tom where would you re-enter next short?
tomthetrader: Here
tomthetrader: staggerring YM ES and ER2
(11:57 AM) TraderTim: that's what I was thinking
(11:58 AM) TraderTim: are you doing Sept or Dec?
tomthetrader: 714.00 ER2 bought 2 short
tomthetrader: DEC
(11:58 AM) nimesh_: tom, u feeling young?
(11:58 AM) billb1947: forgot to write it down-thomas what was ttt entry point for 1st es short?
(11:59 AM) billb1947: 1230?
(11:59 AM) Alert: Time to get all your car care questions answered in the Bobby Likis Car Clinic in Paltalk Studio A in the Radio/TV Section NOW [Free Video]
(12:00 PM) pupster1: QLD....aargh
tomthetrader: Yes ..I think the market is going to rollover into the OPEX and Crash
(12:01 PM) nimesh_: wow, this sucks
tomthetrader: 2-1 - a/d line
tomthetrader: got to love it nimesh
(12:01 PM) pupster1: should've added.
(12:02 PM) pupster1: XLK coming out of a Bullish Wedge on 60 minute.
(12:03 PM) csu30: Should we be looking at stocks to short?
(12:03 PM) billb1947: tom-what was your es short entry?
(12:04 PM) pupster1: just sold QLD and will wait and see.
tomthetrader: Bill I was stopped at 1233 ES on 1
(12:04 PM) ssny2004: LEH at 4.30 was a sweet long trade
(12:04 PM) pupster1: cash is King.
tomthetrader: still short from 133.00 with a 1252 stop on 10 and now short YM and ER2
tomthetrader: sell the rallies biys
tomthetrader: sell the rallies
tomthetrader: 1233.00
tomthetrader: again short 10ES at 1233.00 2 ER2 at 714.00 and 1 YM
tomthetrader: and looking to sell all rallies
(12:08 PM) thomas_Poland: I think we can have one more HOD today
(12:09 PM) Docqb: what is your high pick thomas ?
tomthetrader: My High before the Crash is 1252
(12:09 PM) thomas_Poland: 1244
(12:09 PM) Docqb: i see no higher than 1240
(12:09 PM) thomas_Poland: I mean today
tomthetrader: mine is Wed of next week
(12:09 PM) Docqb: close enough, we are all i a range
(12:10 PM) ssny2004: 1245
(12:10 PM) thomas_Poland: hmm ...
(12:10 PM) thomas_Poland: to many of us want this level
(12:11 PM) ssny2004: so they may leave us waiting
(12:12 PM) Docqb: nah thomas, we're in a minority
(12:12 PM) Docqb: definitely not the masses
(12:14 PM) aszag: I was away from the computer but the pop that I hoped for allowed me to get out of my qld in favor of more short positions and naked calls
(12:16 PM) aszag: We still may may rally some next week as much as 50 ndx before the kill which again could be after options exp
(12:19 PM) ssny2004: XLF gap filled
(12:20 PM) ssny2004: GS is not participating in the rally
(12:20 PM) Docqb: gee, that's weird
(12:21 PM) ssny2004: doc are you being sarcastic?
tomthetrader: let's examine
tomthetrader: where we are
tomthetrader: together we have to do our best to beat the market
(12:23 PM) ssny2004: sticksaves have gotten less effective, this one lasted one day
(12:23 PM) ssny2004: Paulson will be more careful with timing next time
(12:24 PM) ssny2004: WM could be a black swan event
(12:24 PM) ssny2004: i really see no positive news to offset
(12:24 PM) ssny2004: so any rally is bs imo
tomthetrader: everyone follos their own strategies and uses this Chat as anoutlet to help them perform better so no one ..even me should steer anyones rights to their opinions or longs or shorts or highs and lows ...we are here to get better and to make some money long short or ac / dc !
(12:25 PM) ssny2004: ditto Tom, my opinions only, i would love to hear bullish case right now I see none
(12:25 PM) pupster1: yeah guys....don't listen to me or follow my picks.
(12:26 PM) pupster1: these are only my opinions.
(12:26 PM) ssny2004: the consumer will not lead us except into a ditch lol
(12:26 PM) ssny2004: would love to hear bullish rebuttal
(12:27 PM) ssny2004: short term sentiment is only mildly bearish
(12:27 PM) ssny2004: longer term only moderately bearish
(12:27 PM) Docqb: geez, breadth negative 8 to 1 on nyse
(12:27 PM) ssny2004: Vix at 26
(12:28 PM) Docqb: let's ask a different question
(12:28 PM) Docqb: opinions on how many more banks fail ?
(12:28 PM) berniectx: 15-30
(12:29 PM) berniectx: just guessing
(12:29 PM) billb1947: if the market crashes, a lot of banks go down??
(12:29 PM) Docqb: i believe i heard earlier if a bank like WB failed, FDIC would be wiped out
(12:29 PM) csu30: ssny, what do you mean WM as a black swan event?
(12:30 PM) billb1947: that's ok, uncle Ben will bail them out with Doc's taxes
(12:30 PM) Docqb: rofl
(12:30 PM) Docqb: now that's funny....
(12:31 PM) billb1947: that'll be a blank check for FDIC
(12:31 PM) thomas_Poland: ok have to go for two hours
(12:31 PM) thomas_Poland: keep this market up
(12:31 PM) thomas_Poland: I have my stop for my last long set
(12:31 PM) Docqb: but good point bill, poor management is one thing, but geez, they were using tax payor money to buy cocaine
(12:31 PM) billb1947: y
(12:31 PM) thomas_Poland: I will free myself from this position and will trade both directions later
(12:32 PM) Docqb: ut oh, mkt rolling over
(12:32 PM) Docqb: what was the high ?
(12:32 PM) Docqb: was on a call
(12:33 PM) ssny2004: black swan ... black monday... crash
(12:33 PM) ssny2004: Doc come on, just buy LEH
(12:33 PM) Docqb: i don't see a crash, but i do see a big down day soon
(12:34 PM) Docqb: did everyone see the last red candle on the chart for the month of sept ?
(12:35 PM) Docqb: a few of his friends are going to show up soon
(12:35 PM) ssny2004: i am keeping powder dry for any manipulative strategies
(12:35 PM) ssny2004: WB is the next LEH WM imo
(12:36 PM) Docqb: i wouldn't be surprised
(12:36 PM) Docqb: ok, we just closed all the clinics
(12:36 PM) Docqb: more evacuations
(12:36 PM) Docqb: ya'll have to listen to me all day
(12:37 PM) berniectx: how do you see the day ending Doc?
(12:37 PM) ssny2004: SKF heading to the races?
(12:38 PM) ssny2004: I am straddling short & cash
(12:38 PM) Docqb: either a patriotic attempt to hold the line, or throw in the towel and begin the cascade
(12:38 PM) ssny2004: hedgies would sell their first born for a profitable trade it seems
(12:38 PM) Docqb: either way, doesn't matter, fundamentals and technicals point
(12:39 PM) ssny2004: yes agree
(12:39 PM) DE_TTT: Cramer just added WB to his Fortress Four (JPM, USB, WFC, BAC)...what could possibly go wrong?
(12:39 PM) ssny2004: are you serious? that is GREAT!!!!
(12:39 PM) Docqb: distributional selling under the cover of sector rotation
(12:40 PM) ssny2004: short each of those 4
(12:40 PM) Docqb: that's what I see ?
(12:41 PM) Docqb: see, sorry accidental question mark
(12:41 PM) DE_TTT: Yes, SS...on Monday
(12:42 PM) ssny2004: dont want to wait for the extra 10 pts up and miss down move, have cash on sidelines to add
(12:42 PM) ssny2004: starting to think like Tom
(12:43 PM) ssny2004: was thinking last night that I have learnt so much from TTT that will last a lifetime
(12:43 PM) Docqb: have been scaling in on qid
(12:43 PM) Docqb: and shorting other stocks on strength
(12:43 PM) nimesh_: we might get q more leg up after this pull back
(12:43 PM) nimesh_: on q's
(12:44 PM) nimesh_: 50% retracment is 42.75
(12:45 PM) nimesh_: anybody here know eilliot wave
(12:45 PM) ssny2004: CRM has been a bad pick - think hedge funds owned this short
(12:46 PM) DE_TTT: Was added to SP500, ss
(12:46 PM) DE_TTT: Replaced FRE
(12:46 PM) ssny2004: yeah bad luck, really think this pig is a 20 stock next earnings
(12:46 PM) ssny2004: selling at 80PE
(12:47 PM) ssny2004: we have seen that high PE story
tomthetrader: 1230 cash SPX
(1:01 PM) Docqb: just checked around a few blogs, everyone watching 1200
(1:01 PM) TraderTim: hey doc what are some good blogs you watch
(1:02 PM) Docqb: finviz is a good one, lots of good stuff
(1:03 PM) TraderTim: thx
(1:04 PM) Docqb: they have like a message board/blog, good for news, technicals, education stuff
(1:05 PM) billb1947: DIE bulls!
(1:05 PM) nimesh_: trin still showing buying
(1:07 PM) TraderTim: Tom, this pattern looks so familiar except we are SHORT it this time. This seems right given backdrop. Time will tell.
(1:07 PM) nimesh_: tank tank tank
(1:08 PM) nimesh_: what u guys think, 1 more leg up, and then down we go?
(1:09 PM) nimesh_: q's back testing wedge
Investing Made Easy !!!

No comments: