Wednesday, March 25, 2009

(1:25 PM) bogdan07: 27.06/07
(1:25 PM) steve_45_4: this for traders
tomthetrader: Long 4 SPX cash 810 .00 stop 804.00
(1:37 PM) Fulkdaddy: Tom, we had a gap down and fill and rollover to close at LOD yesterday
(1:38 PM) Fulkdaddy: Today we have a gap up and run only to roll over again...if we finish LOD, would this indicate a change in character for this up move?\
(1:39 PM) Fulkdaddy: for the short-term
(1:39 PM) Fulkdaddy: I would like to see a big whack to scare people out..then we can run it up big
tomthetrader: should have a good rally into the close today
tomthetrader: but if we get a selloff would really provide a great entry sub 800
(1:42 PM) Fulkdaddy: It just feels like the market ran too far, too fast and needs to consolidate the gains before the next rip higher
tomthetrader: depends on your risk and drwdown ability
(1:42 PM) Fulkdaddy: low to both
tomthetrader: yes
tomthetrader: it is a better bet to see the real BUY signals
tomthetrader: as we drop down to fill the gap
(1:44 PM) Fulkdaddy: I still do not understand why gaps get filled
tomthetrader: Just nature !
tomthetrader: It is the natural occurrences of math
tomthetrader: which i am very poor at 1
tomthetrader: ....I am sure we have a mean reversion expert who could explain 100 years of gaps filling and trend days
tomthetrader: but I am way too dumb for that .
(1:46 PM) Fulkdaddy: Kass covering GS $112.50 short trade at 108 and S&P 500 short rentals
tomthetrader: I let them do the work and i will trade them !
tomthetrader: Kass is short SPY now ?
(1:47 PM) Fulkdaddy: He covered his SPY short
(1:47 PM) pupster: love Tommy Bahama shirts
(1:47 PM) dhmohan1963: i am sorry who is kass
(1:49 PM) dhmohan1963: thx
tomthetrader: You are welcome
(1:56 PM) JR Roden: I gotta run. I closed my short from this AM since TTT is confident we'll start upward again. I'm going to chaperone 20+ 8th graders at sciene fair at Bowling Green University ... wish me luck
tomthetrader: GOOD LUCK ENJOY
tomthetrader: You may need some luck with 8th graders !
(1:59 PM) JR Roden: Great kids (but they are bigger than me.) Make some money and get this market moving up again.
tomthetrader: Will do ..can't lose now ...BUY signal if we go lower and are in if we go higher ..if this is a BULL it will be known soon !
(2:01 PM) Fulkdaddy: have fun JR
tomthetrader: Stocks and bonds "coupled" ?
tomthetrader: UNCH Dow now
tomthetrader: sell programs
tomthetrader: bit of panic selling
(2:03 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: did some news just come out?
tomthetrader: we were stopped Again at 804
tomthetrader: Just sell programs
tomthetrader: I see no news just a rollover like yesterday
(2:06 PM) dhmohan1963: do you think we fill up gap from 3 days ago unemployment coming out tomorrow
tomthetrader: again will reenter ES at SPX 802 .00 the lowswe bought overnight for 20.00 ES we will add 10 contracts at 800 ES no stops till tomorrow
(2:09 PM) Fulkdaddy: Is a bounce at 800-804 too obvious?
(2:09 PM) Fulkdaddy: Do they have to take it below it to wipe out the stops?
tomthetrader: seems like a lot of stops have been hit
tomthetrader: we have some pretty good number
tomthetrader: Market is acting very well
tomthetrader: p.c. got as low as .55 thisa.m. many call buyers got waxed
tomthetrader: but now up to better levels 800 psych level as is 30.00 Q's
(2:19 PM) pupster: do Banks wanna rollover here
tomthetrader: They seem to have a pattern of getting just there and rallying
tomthetrader: difficult to say
(2:20 PM) pupster: Fulk is trying push em over the edge
tomthetrader: I see nothinbg really negative here
(2:21 PM) Fulkdaddy: I agree Tom...they have just run too far too fast?
tomthetrader: I am out of finaNCIALA so i hope they do whatdave and anyone short wants ...I want to see the market handle bad news well
tomthetrader: and so far they got ecastatic on good news ( froth0 now are neutral on bad news from all sorts of rumors and a bad auction which shows Bonds and stocks are 'coupled' for now
(2:25 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: what does it mean when stocks and bonds are no longer inverse relation?
tomthetrader: Again we have 10 ES from 800 an dwe will dtop at 7440 for now
tomthetrader: 741.00 stop 10 ES
tomthetrader: again we arelong ES and QLD as aswing into April fools day
(2:31 PM) Fulkdaddy: Tom, 50 day ma at 793.
(2:31 PM) Fulkdaddy: could get a bounce here if not sooner
tomthetrader: we are near a buy signal but many indicators won't turn til more seling and mor eput buying
tomthetrader: RUT only down .3%
tomthetrader: a/d still +
tomthetrader: we will add 10Es to get to 20Es at 798 even
tomthetrader: 100 % long here
(2:38 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: We have the 50% retracement in ESM9 @ 792.50 (retrace of 761.50 low to 823.50 hi)
(2:49 PM) TraderTim: A/D: -659 Trin: 196 P/C: .85 BKX: -1.2%
tomthetrader: we should get a 3% move up in the coming 3 sessions ...
(2:50 PM) TraderTim: Trannies: -2.8% Commod index: -1% 10's Yield is now 2.768 +4%
tomthetrader: 1st TTT Buy Signal Since march 3rd
tomthetrader: 100% All IN in all portfolios
(2:57 PM) Fulkdaddy: Lets give credit to this selloff where credit is due...the Abby Joseph Cohn indicator works again
tomthetrader: She was the queen of the 90's bull 1
(2:58 PM) Fulkdaddy: crushed since
tomthetrader: a few jobs too
(2:58 PM) Fulkdaddy: her idea of getting conservative in this bear was by going from 65% equities to 60%
tomthetrader: as low as Marty Zweig got was 79% long
(2:59 PM) Fulkdaddy: WOW!
(2:59 PM) Fulkdaddy: He must have been wiped out?
tomthetrader: and I think he was off 33% at worst /
(3:00 PM) Fulkdaddy: incredible
(3:00 PM) Fulkdaddy: good stock picking
tomthetrader: good stock picking and rotation
tomthetrader: remember the commodity rally
tomthetrader: all the rallies in this bear have been good ones
tomthetrader: we needed this to get the short term indies in tact
(3:02 PM) Fulkdaddy: This is the type of selloff I want to see to get the weak holders out so we can run it up without them
(3:02 PM) TraderTim: yes but watch how quickly it makes US the "weak" hands
(3:03 PM) TraderTim: hold tight
(3:04 PM) pupster: gaps filled on UYG and FAS
(3:05 PM) TraderTim: ES 15min coming up on 200 which held the 3/11 and 3/20 pullback/retracement for this rally
(3:06 PM) TraderTim: ES 60min 50 ema also was good support on same dates
(3:07 PM) TraderTim: Nick: verify the 50% retracement at 743 on daily
(3:08 PM) Fulkdaddy: 793 is 50 day ma on the daily
(3:09 PM) TraderTim: we are on 50 so let's see if it acts as support now and holds
(3:10 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: broke 50%...going for 61.8%
(3:10 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: 50% @ 792.50...61.8% @ 785.18
(3:10 PM) TraderTim: Nick: 50% from 666 bottom to 821 top of this rally is 744???
(3:12 PM) TraderTim: Nick: I am refering to a 50% retracement of this latest move. 1/2 distance.
tomthetrader: someone have a slide rule ?
(3:12 PM) TraderTim: I just add the two numbers together and divide by 2
tomthetrader: I can't type or add so i am in trouble
tomthetrader: I am just glad nick posted when he did !
(3:15 PM) TraderTim: that's ok tom, this will be our value add for you
tomthetrader: It gave the data perfect on my TTT BUY
(3:15 PM) TraderTim: yes
(3:15 PM) Fulkdaddy: 50% is 744
tomthetrader: still need the P.C. ratio to get worse but in a bull it is acceptable
(3:16 PM) TraderTim: thx FULK
tomthetrader: I would not accept in a bear
(3:16 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: My 761.50 low is from Friday 11/20
tomthetrader: 26.08 QLD
(3:16 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: hi of 823.50 today
(3:16 PM) TraderTim: thx Nick
tomthetrader: Boy do I remember that TTT Buy signal !
(3:17 PM) TraderTim: I was going from low of beginning of rally .... all of them are good to know
tomthetrader: we were 40 contracts long with 100's of options !
tomthetrader: Nov 761.50
(3:17 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: yes the Fib confluence is just as important
tomthetrader: as we were on march 3rd
(3:18 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: as taught by Carolyn Borden and Robert Miner
(3:18 PM) TraderTim: yes
(3:18 PM) Fulkdaddy: pulled back to the uptrend line on the hourly...everything looks fine if this bounce holds
tomthetrader: I would hope so
tomthetrader: we will take our 50 ES 2500 cash profits here though
tomthetrader: Again we will take the $2500 cash in 50 ES in 30 minutes
tomthetrader: But will have BGU QLD 100% long
(3:25 PM) Fulkdaddy: Jason Leavitt thinks we fill Monday's gap at 763
tomthetrader: TTT Got a buy signal in his pocket + 4K
tomthetrader: realized
(3:27 PM) Fulkdaddy: He sees a rally into the close...then wants a gap up to short in the am
(3:30 PM) Fulkdaddy: your Buy signal was perfect
(3:31 PM) TraderTim: most excellent Toom
(3:31 PM) TraderTim: Tom too
tomthetrader: Thank you
(3:31 PM) DE_TTT: Bot LUK and VMW on your buy signal, Tom.
(3:32 PM) TraderTim: Nick: you gotta love the long tail on that last ES bar (60min)
(3:32 PM) DE_TTT: Still down 3% on the day
(3:32 PM) DE_TTT: I bot at $23.50
tomthetrader: EMC VMW
tomthetrader: I am adding to my kids accounts
tomthetrader: we are 100% LONG ELSEWHERE
(3:38 PM) Fulkdaddy: What will the close be Tom?
(3:39 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: Tim: yes...and the 2 bars show the price rejection, too
tomthetrader: I hope 802 but it would be best for the market to "retest' 792.50
(3:41 PM) TraderTim: agree. retest would be better for us.
(3:42 PM) Fulkdaddy: great analysis!
(3:43 PM) TraderTim: my speaker was sputtering . . . summarize "great analysis"
(3:43 PM) TraderTim: A/D: -15 Trin: 1.74 P/C: .86 BKX: +.5%
(3:44 PM) TraderTim: DRYS: -15%
tomthetrader: more or less the bear market rally vs new bull market will be tested as if we are in a new bull we should rally ery hard at retest if not 792.50 should go to 741 quickly
(3:45 PM) les13436: If we think housing has bottomed, & XHB is going higher, a couple of real spec plays could be CHB & HOV, CHB accounts for 3.9% of XHB holdings and HOV accounts for 6.5%. Seems if volume continues higher in XHB then these have to be accumulated (by XHB) to continue the % of holdings.
(3:46 PM) les13436: HOV short int is 29.1%, good point!
(3:46 PM) les13436: CHB is 9.5%
(3:48 PM) les13436: Hard to believe somebody would short a $1.73 stock????
(3:49 PM) Fulkdaddy: If it goes to .86 cents it is a 50% gain!
(3:50 PM) Fulkdaddy: If they go out of business, there are no taxes to pay on the gains
tomthetrader: great job guys and gals we will face em down tomorrow
(3:53 PM) Fulkdaddy: big rally right off the 50 day ma
(3:54 PM) steve_45_4: I bought 22.93 at 2:39
(3:54 PM) les13436: 22.70
(3:54 PM) les13436: 22.55 @2:49
(3:55 PM) DE_TTT: Great buy call, Tom. Many thanks!
(3:56 PM) les13436: Nice call Tom, now all we need is a nice uptrend day tomorrow!!!
(3:56 PM) pupster: Great call Tom....!!!!
(3:56 PM) steve_45_4: ty TTT
(3:56 PM) pupster: u r the BEST
(3:56 PM) DE_TTT: Performance Anxiety says at least up through Friday...just my 2 cents!
(3:56 PM) bloomert: TTT TTT!!!
tomthetrader: AMAZING
tomthetrader: Gains
(3:58 PM) Fulkdaddy: wish you would have held those 50 ES!
(3:58 PM) TraderTim: pigs get slaughtered
tomthetrader: I had my self covered with BGU
tomthetrader: 10 ES was just to get a quick house payment
(3:59 PM) Fulkdaddy: good...I thought you bought 50...that would be alot
tomthetrader: 10ES
tomthetrader: got 50 points
tomthetrader: $2500
tomthetrader: looks dumb now but sure felt smart
(4:00 PM) steve_45_4: glad for you . you deserve it
tomthetrader: as I bought 10000 BGU
tomthetrader: in its place
(4:00 PM) steve_45_4: the profit I mean lol
tomthetrader: to keep long 100% and 0 leverage
(4:02 PM) Alert: Hi , Welcome to TTT

tomthetrader: BIG GREEN BARSinto tomorrow
tomthetrader: BIG Realized gains into the Main and IRA
(4:05 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: ES went right thru the 30 min O.R. low and is not at it as support
(4:05 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: it is now support
(4:05 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: bad typing!
tomthetrader: Great reporting Nick
(4:06 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: right on the dot
tomthetrader: we appreciate the confirmations
(4:06 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: thx tom
tomthetrader: at least we have validity here
tomthetrader: and some integrity for our signals
tomthetrader: while Thomas is out partying /
(4:08 PM) Fulkdaddy: the market just can't selloff
(4:08 PM) Fulkdaddy: all dips are bought
(4:08 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: that is good sign
(4:08 PM) TraderTim: very positive
(4:08 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: fundamental change in character of market
(4:08 PM) TraderTim: snorting bulls want to buy
(4:10 PM) Fulkdaddy: Tim, when are you going to buy?
tomthetrader: That is why I RUSHED IN ..IN BULL STAMPEDES LIKE THIS A) Don't get caught short
tomthetrader: 2) Don't get caught in cash
(4:11 PM) TraderTim: I am buying
tomthetrader: I wish I ahd some money to buy
(4:11 PM) steve_45_4: and you are right again. I am not going to be a doubter anymore
tomthetrader: I am tapped out waiting on a fill
(4:11 PM) TraderTim: I buy dips FULK you know that
(4:11 PM) TraderTim: and that was a dip
tomthetrader: and some trading cash tomorrow ..
tomthetrader: every 3% dip from 666
tomthetrader: is a winner
(4:12 PM) jbljudy: Mom's in!
tomthetrader: YEAH
(4:12 PM) TraderTim: hurray judy
tomthetrader: My wife is in
tomthetrader: Now the market will fly to 14K
tomthetrader: Women are much smarter !
tomthetrader: and better judges of character
tomthetrader: I hope
(4:14 PM) DE_TTT: RHT Red Hat beats by $0.02, reports revs in-line (14.96 -0.31)
tomthetrader: Biggest test will be 875 ....I do not think we can do it til 4th of july /
tomthetrader: Thanks DE
tomthetrader: I still made some $$$$$$$ on VMW
tomthetrader: Banks took off faster than all other sectors
tomthetrader: Davedid you cover that FAZ short ...?
tomthetrader: are youclear of shorts /
tomthetrader: I hope everyone short banksgot the heck out of that semi ride
(4:16 PM) Fulkdaddy: 1/2
(4:16 PM) Fulkdaddy: still slightly positive on the other 1/2//bought at 19.25
tomthetrader: that was one powerful push up
(4:17 PM) Fulkdaddy: It was nice...lets see if we get a gap up selloff tomorrow to reload
tomthetrader: reload ?
tomthetrader: can't reload
tomthetrader: AMAT leading Semis
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tomthetrader: Oh good bye yellow brick road
tomthetrader: Thomas wants to believe in Atilla
tomthetrader: He abandons us for the pleasure of XTRENDS
(5:30 PM) ajayvee: He did?
tomthetrader: He isreally BEARISH
(5:30 PM) ajayvee: I know xtrends is, but is Thomas a bear?
tomthetrader: Yes
tomthetrader: Very bearish since the lows
tomthetrader: still thinks we see 350 SPX
(5:32 PM) ajayvee: isn't that a bullish sign

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