Monday, January 5, 2009


(10:39 AM) thomas_Poland: yes it is okk
(10:39 AM) Nick_H2: great!
(10:39 AM) thomas_Poland: Do you have new login?
(10:40 AM) Nick_H2: now we know how to send large video files across the world!
(10:40 AM) thomas_Poland: yep
(10:40 AM) Nick_H2: Yes on laptop today and want to keep my home login active to it gets all the chat today because Paltalk only allows 1 login per name
(10:41 AM) thomas_Poland: Tom send chat every day
(10:42 AM) Nick_H2: Dave & Tim, were you guys able to unzip the files successfully?
(10:43 AM) Fulkdaddy: Nick, I have been working on my RIA business so no time for trading at this point, but thanks for sending as I will get to it
(10:43 AM) TraderTim: it downloaded so I will unzip and try and test it out.
(10:44 AM) Nick_H2: ok
(10:45 AM) thomas_Poland: this bounce started from 200 sma on 5 min TF chart
(10:45 AM) TraderTim: A/D: +629 NYSE A/D: -202 NAS
(10:50 AM) vishal8: short 1 more NQ at 1266
tomthetrader: It is not unusual to see the market bounce back quickly after a huge run but the odds favor a 3% correction by friday
(11:03 AM) TraderTim: Nick/Thomas: notice that TF could not break out of opening range (unlike other indices)
(11:03 AM) TraderTim: 5min TF
(11:04 AM) Fulkdaddy: Good point, Tim...RUT is weak...bad sign for market
(11:04 AM) TraderTim: yes, and may be better focus for shorts . . . notice how badly TF fell this morning on the slightest weakness elsewhere . . . seems vulnerable
(11:05 AM) TraderTim: just thinking out loud
(11:06 AM) vishal8: oil services
(11:06 AM) Fulkdaddy: Money going to: FWLT, JEC, SLX, X, CNX, KOL, JNK
(11:06 AM) TTTMichael: POT,
(11:06 AM) TTTMichael: Yes, 100% long high yield
(11:07 AM) TraderTim: BTU: +8%+
(11:08 AM) TTTMichael: XLU at the top of a box, may be ready to break out for 3-4 points.
(11:09 AM) DE_TTT: NAV pre-announced down and opened stock is flying.
tomthetrader: Very Bullish DE !
tomthetrader: UNP a good play here
tomthetrader: nice comeback on charts
tomthetrader: here are stocks I am looking to buy
tomthetrader: MCD NKE UA
tomthetrader: MO BG COST PEP PMI
tomthetrader: CHK COP HAL MEE OXY * SM ** VLO **
tomthetrader: ALL GS HCBK RGA WB WFC WL
tomthetrader: GILD MRK
tomthetrader: BA CAT CAL FWLT LLL UNP
tomthetrader: AA NUE FCX DBA
tomthetrader: I will narrow down and buy as the market allows me
tomthetrader: Eveyone ok ?
tomthetrader: Vishal you got in and stayed short NQ ?
tomthetrader: anyone else ?
(11:41 AM) JR Roden: TTT - I followed your lead and took a short in the SPY. Took 18 cents on the 93 puts and decided it was time for lunch.
(11:42 AM) vishal8: Im still short NQ avg 1262
(11:43 AM) vishal8: BEAR
(11:43 AM) csu30: Bearish
(11:43 AM) ctmhou: CNBC say we should be bullish............
(11:43 AM) wclegg: Bear
(11:43 AM) TraderTim: Bear
tomthetrader: POLL : BULL or Bear til Friday 4pm ?
(11:43 AM) berniectx: bearish jobs numbers will be horrible Friday
(11:43 AM) breadman8401: bear
(11:43 AM) TTTMichael: Rather be in junk for now. Stocks later after selloff.
(11:44 AM) Fulkdaddy: bear
tomthetrader: Short term bear mid long term bull
tomthetrader: bearish til Friday and then a hopeful buy signal
(11:46 AM) Alert: ====SECURITY BULLETIN!=======
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(11:47 AM) ctmhou: Tom, are you still looking for an 8-10% pullback?
tomthetrader: Not until FEB
tomthetrader: just 1-3% this week
tomthetrader: then a rally and then a 8-10% drop in Feb
(11:55 AM) vishal8: Tom when you send us these reports like Roy Ashworth, Helene etc, which ones are the ones you generally agree with ?
(12:02 PM) TTTMichael: Thinking of selling LQD which I have owned since Nov, and buying DUK which pays a higher dividend and looks to have more potential now.
(12:07 PM) Fulkdaddy: Look at JNK!
(12:23 PM) Fulkdaddy: RUT showing leadership now?
(12:24 PM) TraderTim: Still has not broken opening range but it is sure trying to now
(12:24 PM) TraderTim: A/D: +918
tomthetrader: I don't generally agree with many
tomthetrader: I think they all have their places
tomthetrader: I like Jason Goepfert for dat info Dick Arms and Ned Davis for market timing
tomthetrader: and some of the owrk by peter Elliades and the blogs that I follow have daily input
tomthetrader: Market wants to go higher but I still do not think it has the power to go much [past Fri High
tomthetrader: and will stay 50% short
tomthetrader: stop around 944 SPX level
(12:56 PM) TraderTim: A/D: +757 dropping
tomthetrader: we have probably seen the peak in public buying here
tomthetrader: 1:56 pm -4:00pm should be weak ?
tomthetrader: but market is doing a wonderful job of digesting the 20-400% gains in stocks
(1:01 PM) berniectx: DIE BULLS...where is Thomas?
tomthetrader: very Bullish
tomthetrader: Thomas is working hard on fixing his watch ?
(1:01 PM) berniectx: miss his rants and watch calls
tomthetrader: yes
tomthetrader: I suspect we may get a little more upside follow through over the next session or two (there is a tendency for the market to follow through after a day like yesterday, and the 2nd trading day of the year is one of the most consistently positive), but that should be all given back and then some over the coming week(s).
tomthetrader: Scares me tjhat some of the biggest bears inj the world have turned bullish and are buying futures and stocks tied to the economy ?
(1:16 PM) Fulkdaddy: Who?
tomthetrader: it was just a few weeks ago we got the "world has just ended " with DRYS at 3.00
(1:16 PM) Fulkdaddy: Still may have as nothing goes straight up or down
tomthetrader: Kass Knight over 50 CNBC managers
tomthetrader: interviewed
(1:18 PM) Fulkdaddy: Tim and I need to give you our take on Doug Kass as you seem to see him in a much different light than we do.
tomthetrader: I was in the 1% saying the housing market has bottomed and the economy is not falling as bad as people think and GDP should be + By the 2nd -3rd quarter of 09
(1:18 PM) Fulkdaddy: He runs a short fund but is not afraid to go long when conditions are right
tomthetrader: He has a pretty miserable record ?
tomthetrader: Great guy , very astute
tomthetrader: haven't seen a good trade as he was short for the past 8 years to my knowledge ..which may be limited /
tomthetrader: and short in the 90's ?
tomthetrader: I like to read the top 10 Hulbert choices and I really like Mark Hulbert as he has become a phenom of market timing in his own right ...doug has no rating
(1:27 PM) Fulkdaddy: Doug is a hedge fund
(1:28 PM) Fulkdaddy: Pretty amazing that he could make money and build a short only hedge fund in the 90's and make money!
(1:38 PM) TraderTim: Two comments: 1) I too am finding Hulbert an interesting market timer based on years of experience reading/tracking newsletters (sometimes contrarian but sometimes not) 2) KASS has an amazing ability to identify OUTLIER "surprises" (kind of Black Swan fundamentals) and is usually early but seems to get the direction right over time
(1:40 PM) TraderTim: One of the interesting things about KASS is his ability to CHANGE his thesis once it becomes commonplace. So he clearly is more comfortable being a contrarian (both long and short)
(1:41 PM) TraderTim: Kass is almost as good as FULK!!!!
(1:41 PM) Fulkdaddy: Fulk who?
(1:41 PM) TraderTim: and you know how much we love that FULK guy
(1:42 PM) Fulkdaddy: Can you introduce me?
(1:42 PM) TraderTim: seriously though, I think KASS has value add in by forcing you to think the "opposing" viewpoint. Very valuable.
(1:47 PM) TraderTim: FULK: Your JNK pick was the best of all the JUNK I am watching. Better than FYAIX PDHYX (tradeable mutual funds) and even beats the stallwarts NTHEX.
tomthetrader: ZF HYB QQQX beating JUNK !
(1:50 PM) TraderTim: this is true!!!
(1:51 PM) TraderTim: hyb is great
tomthetrader: ZTR beating JNK
(1:52 PM) TraderTim: but remember, the magic of the JUNK trend is it is low volitility (regular mutual fund junk that is) and gives you a week or two for the trend to "roll over" making it easier to trade with trend following tools like moving averages.
tomthetrader: Just the dividends are blowing me away on these
(1:52 PM) TraderTim: I know. You picked some nice
(1:52 PM) TraderTim: "total return" funds
(1:52 PM) TraderTim: for this runup
tomthetrader: investors had to move from t-bills to high yield to utilities and untimately to stocks
(1:55 PM) pupster1: long CRZO and CRZO from Friday
(1:55 PM) pupster1: CHK rather
(1:56 PM) thomas_Poland: YM is lagging ES
(1:56 PM) JR Roden: Let's see what 1:56 brings now
(2:10 PM) TraderTim: A/D: +1270
(2:11 PM) TraderTim: TF broke out of opening range finally on upside
(2:12 PM) JR Roden: What is the symbol to track TF?
(2:12 PM) JR Roden: I have OptionsXpress charting
(2:12 PM) TraderTim: TF is the symbol used on IB. I follow TFH9 (march contract) right now.
(2:13 PM) TraderTim: Search under Russell emini futures
(2:13 PM) thomas_Poland: I think that YM is a tell
(2:14 PM) TraderTim: YM is not getting near the high from friday . . . so a negative tell
(2:15 PM) thomas_Poland: exactly
tomthetrader: HYB 70-1.00 in 20 sessions since recommended ?
tomthetrader: .70 cents per share
tomthetrader: to 1.00 pershare
(2:17 PM) Fulkdaddy: great pick
tomthetrader: with a 20% yield paid monthly annualized
tomthetrader: Flocking to JNK ZTR ZF
tomthetrader: HYB ...High yield of any sort
(2:32 PM) thomas_Poland: YM was a tell
(2:33 PM) JR Roden: Great info. Always good to have a tell like that.
(2:39 PM) rekon8: NAV
(2:53 PM) TraderTim: A/D: +754
(2:54 PM) JR Roden: Anybody have any projections for the last hour today?
(2:54 PM) TraderTim: THOMAS: TF 200 sma!
tomthetrader: NAV DRYS EGLE say the economy is soaring
(2:54 PM) TraderTim: TF on 5min
(2:54 PM) thomas_Poland: Yes Tim .. again
(2:54 PM) redliontrader: tom, did you get rid of QQQX and DZK?
(2:55 PM) thomas_Poland: YM just above 200 sma
tomthetrader: yes ..I have 0 positions except shorts underwater to break even
(2:55 PM) thomas_Poland: TF also at the yesterdays close
tomthetrader: TF ES YM shorts down to 903
tomthetrader: ES will probably be a loss but good to B.E. in all others
(2:56 PM) thomas_Poland: the first -800 TICK reading today .. some sell program?
(2:57 PM) thomas_Poland: and lagging YM always is not a good sign
tomthetrader: 1:56 pm will be high of the week /
tomthetrader: I would short C
(3:03 PM) TraderTim: A/D: +888
tomthetrader: BULL ?
tomthetrader: Or Blow ?
tomthetrader: ZUPI flat
tomthetrader: MDY hit its target now should fall 100.00 -95 if you ewant to buy puts
tomthetrader: 8920 we will sell another 10% of our YM shorts
tomthetrader: we will leave ES and TF as our last shorts
tomthetrader: RIO up 10% today ...a name from the past
tomthetrader: the hedge "crash stocks are coming back ...a good or bad sign ?
tomthetrader: you tell me
tomthetrader: ?
tomthetrader: Pres . Elect "the economy is sick and getting worse"
(3:10 PM) vishal8: is Obama speaking now on CNBCaca ?
(3:10 PM) JR Roden: I'm sure he will make things sound as bad as possible now, with the goal of making his programs look all that much better if they are successful.
tomthetrader: agree
tomthetrader: I think they will say things are worse as the trailing indicators will be poor and future indicators have bottomed for now
tomthetrader: taking another 10% off
tomthetrader: 8905
tomthetrader: and another at 8900
tomthetrader: so we are down to 10 contracts short 2 ES and 4 TF and 2 YM we will sell the YM soon
tomthetrader: Showroom traffic picked up here too in last weeks
tomthetrader: autos
tomthetrader: homes sales up
tomthetrader: of course mortgage apps highest in history
tomthetrader: 9-6 + a/d
tomthetrader: pretty strong
(3:21 PM) berniectx: You still think hold ES shorts for later in the week Tom? or let them go today?
(3:22 PM) JR Roden: starting to see potential positive divergences on 5 min SPY
tomthetrader: I would hold ..I am going to hold
tomthetrader: and maybe see a gap down tomorrow ...I still think 900 test soon
(3:23 PM) berniectx: thx am holding for BE I hope
tomthetrader: But if you think you can absorb a loss is better here than HOD ! But I still think we can go lower ...there are some stocks having blowoff tops
(3:24 PM) TraderTim: THOMAS: There goes the 200sma on TF.
tomthetrader: if I am correct we get another 2% off
tomthetrader: Fact is we are ON TOP OF THIS MARKET
(3:25 PM) Fulkdaddy: You are rolling, Tom.
(3:25 PM) Fulkdaddy: I like your balanced approach...seeing longs and shorts...good discipline
(3:25 PM) thomas_Poland: Tim we are below right?
(3:25 PM) thomas_Poland: Also on YM
tomthetrader: Thank you
(3:26 PM) TraderTim: yes we broke
tomthetrader: we will just be 30% short at close in ES and TF ES Underwater aND tf MAKING MONEY
(3:28 PM) TraderTim: TF/YM both breached 200 sma on 5m
(3:28 PM) TraderTim: first time since 12/29
(3:28 PM) TraderTim: when it broke out above
(3:29 PM) TraderTim: Thomas: I am going to draw it with a crayon however so need more decisive break
tomthetrader: we have called 38-45 last sessions on the day
(3:29 PM) thomas_Poland:
tomthetrader: I like the odds
(3:29 PM) TraderTim: Tom is hot hand on his calls since nov bottom!!!!
(3:30 PM) Fulkdaddy: Yes
(3:30 PM) Fulkdaddy: His keyboard could be melting!
(3:30 PM) Fulkdaddy: Near perfect
tomthetrader: pretty big run since and if we can have some type of follow thru day on the downside it should shake out the jan call buyers
(3:31 PM) redliontrader: naz stubborn, still not down 1%
tomthetrader: and free us up to get Long
tomthetrader: AAPL ROMM
(3:31 PM) Fulkdaddy: Still only down 1%...need 3%+ to get them out Tom?
tomthetrader: RIMM
tomthetrader: we need over 3% in naz
tomthetrader: just 3% in SPX
(3:32 PM) TraderTim: A/D: +635
tomthetrader: 500 RUT back to making money on the short position s
tomthetrader: the 903.50 ES trade was really a bad trade
tomthetrader: all others were at least adequate
tomthetrader: 40 contracts and 903.50 the worst 2 positions
(3:42 PM) Fulkdaddy: Aruj, any thoughts on bonds? Correction a buying opportunity or time to short?
(3:48 PM) Fulkdaddy: Banks getting hammered
(3:48 PM) Fulkdaddy: REIT's lagging
tomthetrader: Not a good day for longs in the calls except for the High growth and low P/E
tomthetrader: as I asked earlier ?
tomthetrader: Is it good that the old leaders of reflation are leading ?
tomthetrader: the answer ? No ?
(3:55 PM) arujunaa: no strong view here, fulk. just wading through research. we are at first support levels: 2.50% & 3% on 10s & 30s. the "trend" is over and we will now have a choppy traders' market. we have a lot of supply this week, but nfp report on friday. the popular belief is that treasuries will continue to sell-off in the short term. if they do, i will be looking to go long at 2.80%ish on 10s.
tomthetrader: Thanks Aruj !
tomthetrader: GDP 4% this Spring ?
(3:56 PM) arujunaa: nope
tomthetrader: agree
tomthetrader: just have to "bug" you !
tomthetrader: the 2000 point Dow rally has some economists wondering /
tomthetrader: 40% in Smallcaps ?
(3:59 PM) arujunaa: i'm like a deer in headlights. i don't believe this stock rally but too scared to go short given sentiment
tomthetrader: still think we test 900 this week in ES SPX
tomthetrader: I think we go down to 8700 and 900 475
tomthetrader: and still can rally hard into coronation
tomthetrader: I mean inauguration
(4:00 PM) TraderTim: THOMAS: See the CRAYON always works
tomthetrader: remember earnings
tomthetrader: 48.50 oil
(4:01 PM) thomas_Poland: yes Tim
(4:01 PM) thomas_Poland: NQ stopped falling just at the close of yesterday
(4:02 PM) berniectx: AD finishing pretty strong +1004
tomthetrader: real strong ..last day of positive seasonality
tomthetrader: should be a negative for next week
(4:06 PM) JR Roden: Thanks to all for the help and insights today. Closed 2 short plays with nice wins. A good way to start the week.
tomthetrader: Great
tomthetrader: nice to hear
(4:09 PM) JR Roden: Tom - are you still holding onto the TOL short?
(4:09 PM) JR Roden: From the hot tip last week?
tomthetrader: how is it ?
tomthetrader: I only took 100 sh in my IRA
tomthetrader: don't even look
(4:12 PM) JR Roden: It's up to 21.96
(4:13 PM) berniectx: TOL the builder JR?
tomthetrader: 20.14 was the short area ?
(4:14 PM) JR Roden: Yes
(4:14 PM) JR Roden: Yes, 20.14
tomthetrader: From our tipster
tomthetrader: I saw it at 20.41 that day !
tomthetrader: may be good to add another load 100 sh
(4:15 PM) JR Roden: I'm misspoke, it closed at 22.18 today.
(4:15 PM) berniectx: OK guys gals have a good day be careful...DIE BULLS!!
tomthetrader: DIE BULLS
tomthetrader: Take care Bern
(4:16 PM) berniectx: see ya all tomorrow, need Thomas to chant
tomthetrader: Thomas is the hammer
tomthetrader: tomorrow will be down also
tomthetrader: we are 100% cash IRA 100% cash Main 25% short Traders

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