Thursday, January 15, 2009


tomthetrader: No stops until 10:30 so we should be there soon
(10:20 AM) TraderTim: perfect bearish flag os ES cash if it falls to 820
tomthetrader: VIX HOD
tomthetrader: Real fear out here
(10:21 AM) TraderTim: by the way, 820 cash is the level Jason Goepert likes for short term stab to upside (though he is a bit nervous)
(10:21 AM) nimesh_: how oversold are we!!
tomthetrader: Yes 820 is the LEVERAGE LONGER POINT where we go 3:1 long
(10:21 AM) JR Roden: Let's see a big bounce that makes all those Jan put buyers say "Oh S*&t"
tomthetrader: yes
tomthetrader: that is the plan
tomthetrader: nice trade on C so far ?
(10:22 AM) JR Roden: TOL is beautiful for our short play.
tomthetrader: stop in at break even on C
tomthetrader: 18.01 TOL I am out of TOL this A.M. with small profits 300 sh only
(10:25 AM) ajayvee: YM got a 7 handle, let's see if $INDU cash market does too
tomthetrader: there goes C
tomthetrader: to 0
(10:26 AM) nimesh_: jpm down a dollar
tomthetrader: 82200 we wil add 20 contracts long 3:1 margined
(10:27 AM) nimesh_: potential hammer on 5 min chart
tomthetrader: 822.00 cash 20 contracts long on the panic
tomthetrader: not 10:30 am yet
tomthetrader: back into C at 3.50
tomthetrader: FUN
tomthetrader: FUN
tomthetrader: make a bundle lose a bundle ..this is OCT all over again
tomthetrader: keep on C daytraders
(10:28 AM) JR Roden: I will be truly amazed if this turns around
tomthetrader: and take a dime
tomthetrader: 'look at some options they are crazy
tomthetrader: won't get this shot again
tomthetrader: I will be truly amazed if it doesn't
tomthetrader: it is breaking all new extremes for 87 and 08
(10:30 AM) Fulkdaddy: The long-term chart you sent of the S&P from 1983 shows 50% down from here though are you just talking about a quick oversold bounce?
(10:35 AM) nimesh_: keep making new lows
(10:41 AM) redliontrader: 820 should get retested?
(10:43 AM) nimesh_: i hope not....i want it to go to the moon.
(10:44 AM) redliontrader: me too
(10:44 AM) redliontrader: 870, not quite the moon
(10:45 AM) nimesh_: i'd be happy with q's at 29, can unload some calls
(10:47 AM) JR Roden: Good volume on the 5 min SPY on the Green bars, so somebody has wanted to buy.
(10:50 AM) redliontrader: long bgu
(10:51 AM) JR Roden: Even yesterday afternoon the GREEN 5 min bars had higher volume than the red bars.
(10:51 AM) redliontrader: long es
tomthetrader: Dave Yes a rally into End of month then bail
(10:54 AM) JR Roden: Testing the 13 EMA on the 5 min SPY.
(11:07 AM) redliontrader: y
(11:07 AM) redliontrader: y
(11:07 AM) TraderTim: TF?
tomthetrader: Yes and UWM
tomthetrader: 16.01
tomthetrader: VIX puts
tomthetrader: Calls on XLF
(11:08 AM) nimesh_: vix at 50MA
tomthetrader: 9.00 FEB XLF calls purchased in private account
tomthetrader: getting very stretched readings in banks money centers
tomthetrader: WFC WB
tomthetrader: Buy options just 205%
(11:10 AM) JR Roden: Die Bears
(11:11 AM) tomthetrader: tomthetrader has bounced kezza sin from the chat room
tomthetrader: selling 50,000 sh of C bought at 3.50 sold at 3.75 have options to cover 50000 sh now
(11:25 AM) JR Roden: Let the panic buying begin
tomthetrader: GS calls to Jan bought the Jan 70
(11:29 AM) redliontrader: ad line is horrible, this should be one hell of a rally
(11:31 AM) TraderTim: A/D: -2120
tomthetrader: 820.00 was THE BOTTOM a/d will be + by the close
tomthetrader: I am in everything beat up the most
tomthetrader: UYM UWM
tomthetrader: calls in everything beaten up
tomthetrader: tomthetrader: 4 points on ES and 4% on 2-3X etf's
tomthetrader: stops on everything now
tomthetrader: 24.20 QLD is a BUY here if you need a position
tomthetrader: 24.20 should be low of the day
tomthetrader: BUY QLD 24.20-22
tomthetrader: UYM Buy 11>85 11.85
tomthetrader: UYM is a BUY
tomthetrader: UYG 3.75 UYG a Buy
tomthetrader: XLF calls Feb 9.00
(11:51 AM) Alert: ====SECURITY BULLETIN!=======
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(11:52 AM) redliontrader: naz up volume holding it own
(11:54 AM) tomandprisha: YES
tomthetrader: I am 3:1 long traders and now 1:5-1 Main Fund adding UWM UYM UYG
tomthetrader: and am up to 100% long IRA again
(12:06 PM) JR Roden: We need to turn soon. that was pretty big volume on that last 5 min red bar.
tomthetrader: We are OK
tomthetrader: REALLY BULLISH
tomthetrader: THe a/d line can be thrown out look at some options expiration numbers into FEB
tomthetrader: we are OK
(12:07 PM) aszags: what do you mean Tom?
tomthetrader: and buying dips for 10 sessions should make great 100% type returns
tomthetrader: The Put numbers into FEB (Contrary) are staggerring ...and a short term rally to 850 is a must
tomthetrader: it is almost impossible NOT TO GET TO 850 in short term 1-5 days from right here right now
tomthetrader: My 33 years is at stake with this call
tomthetrader: I am all in all long
tomthetrader: from 820.00 as the lows for awhile
(12:09 PM) Alert: Get all your car care questions answered NOW in the Bobby Likis Car Clinic in Paltalk Studio A in the Radio/TV Section NOW [Free Video]
(12:12 PM) ctmhou: Tom, are you having fun with C or what? Man, good call.
tomthetrader: XJZAI 400
tomthetrader: C is like WB at .25 on July 15th ?
tomthetrader: Need to buy some call options in the money
(12:14 PM) NgoiCoiChat: hi
tomthetrader: but almost as cheap to buy stock
(12:14 PM) berniectx: I am in heavy long with you but am a nervous nellie today
(12:14 PM) NgoiCoiChat: can i sing a song in this room ?
(12:15 PM) NgoiCoiChat: mean ?
(12:15 PM) berniectx: as long as no singing
(12:15 PM) NgoiCoiChat: ok
(12:15 PM) NgoiCoiChat: so sorry
(12:15 PM) ctmhou: Tom is the only one that sings here.
(12:15 PM) NgoiCoiChat: i'm from viet nam nice meet u
tomthetrader: No ...if you sell I will sing daily for the rest of 09
(12:15 PM) NgoiCoiChat: well i try sing ok
(12:15 PM) NgoiCoiChat: if u don't mind
(12:15 PM) tomthetrader: tomthetrader has bounced NgoiCoiChat from the chat room
(12:15 PM) berniectx: I will stay long
tomthetrader: we do
tomthetrader: Please saty until at least Tuesday ...I will pay for all losses from this point out !
tomthetrader: and take 20% of all gains
(12:16 PM) nimesh_: wow!
(12:16 PM) JR Roden: That would be a great deal
tomthetrader: I WILL PAY FOR ALL LOSSES and take 20% of all gains from Noon today til 4pm tuesday
(12:17 PM) berniectx: conviction TTT
tomthetrader: YES 850.00 will make it maybe 880
(12:17 PM) ctmhou: Tom, you are starting to sound like a Fund manager.
(12:17 PM) nimesh_: nice to hear tom
tomthetrader: I am going to start some managed accounts in July
(12:20 PM) aszags: Tom I anticipate the up move next week as I have said but certainly will hold long until then
tomthetrader: yes
tomthetrader: 1150 NQ 25 contracts added on margin
(12:21 PM) aszags: That is why I added naked Feb qid 62 calls this am
tomthetrader: 1150 NDX cash
(12:22 PM) berniectx: The Gdansk Hammer has been quite today
tomthetrader: he is sitting back waiting for 350 spx
tomthetrader: public selling now as correction ends
tomthetrader: 8000 psych trigger here
tomthetrader: 200 points down
tomthetrader: 818.25
tomthetrader: options expiration in bear markets is pure hell
(12:42 PM) TraderTim: A/D: -2401
(12:43 PM) JR Roden: QQQQ holding up better than SPX
(12:43 PM) JR Roden: That's a good sign ... right?
(12:47 PM) ctmhou: A/D: 346-2674
(12:48 PM) TraderTim: A/D: -2392
(12:48 PM) thomas_Poland: good morning
(12:48 PM) TraderTim: THOMAS is here!!!
(12:48 PM) thomas_Poland: or afternoon
(12:48 PM) thomas_Poland:
(12:48 PM) thomas_Poland: just started reaading chat
(12:48 PM) thomas_Poland: my target is 750
(12:48 PM) thomas_Poland: in January??
(12:48 PM) thomas_Poland: and never 350
(12:48 PM) TraderTim: before or after hitting 850/880 on a bounce?
(12:49 PM) redliontrader: back from lunch, reading tom's comments and conviction. I agree 818 -> 870 ish in next few days
(12:49 PM) thomas_Poland: wish I knew Tim
(12:49 PM) redliontrader: From there, not so sure
(12:49 PM) thomas_Poland: but I wanted 858 ES today
(12:49 PM) thomas_Poland: did not trade for now
(12:51 PM) thomas_Poland: I had targets today 817.50 or 810 ES
(12:54 PM) JR Roden: no
(12:54 PM) berniectx: no
(12:54 PM) DE_TTT: yes
(12:56 PM) JR Roden: We've been beaten down by the 13EMA 3-4 times already today and we are back up there again.
(12:56 PM) thomas_Poland: blogspot?
(12:57 PM) redliontrader: tome, what do you use for a mail client, that allows you to inbed charts in your mail?
(12:57 PM) redliontrader: tom
(12:57 PM) thomas_Poland: it looks like it is free to anyone?
(12:58 PM) redliontrader: can't imbed images in gmail
(12:58 PM) thomas_Poland: oh ok
(1:09 PM) ctmhou: Tom, on my TOS 15 min chart on ES I have a S1 of 823.25. It was just resisitance an hour ago, do you think that that will be resistance again or a break through?
tomthetrader: BRCM QCOM PALM
tomthetrader: I think that it is a great place to add 823.25 Craig
tomthetrader: many stocks bucking the trend as new holders come in
(1:24 PM) berniectx: Die Bears!!!
tomthetrader: stronger hands replacing weak hands over the next 5 sessions
tomthetrader: Bernie !
tomthetrader: Love it !
(1:24 PM) TraderTim: A/D: -2246
tomthetrader: VIX still HOD
tomthetrader: But rally is here now
tomthetrader: a/d unch at close
tomthetrader: $500 ?
(1:26 PM) berniectx: Trin Nas been dropping most of the day
(1:26 PM) TraderTim: how is p/c?
tomthetrader: NQ QQQQ NDX leading
tomthetrader: RIMM
tomthetrader: all these areas ripe for easy gains
tomthetrader: TREMENDOUS put call ratios but it is OPEX week as I told ZAGS early today
tomthetrader: there is some skew
tomthetrader: but should be very bullish for a really strong bounce
(1:30 PM) aszags: will it be considered illegal if the indices or etfs turn positive
(1:30 PM) TraderTim: CBOE P/C: 1.32 Nov 1.4 and Oct 1.48 so we are up there at higher altitudes .
(1:31 PM) ctmhou: Here comes the 823.25 resistance on ES.
(1:31 PM) thomas_Poland: 50% retracement up would be nice before another leg down
(1:32 PM) TraderTim: 50% retracement of 1/6 highs?
(1:32 PM) TraderTim: A/D: -2130 starting to curl upwards
(1:33 PM) thomas_Poland: yes
(1:34 PM) TraderTim: BKX 32.89 Jason wants it to hold 34 by the close and it is spiking here
tomthetrader: We are making some money finally after some great "scrambling"
(1:40 PM) TraderTim: yes indeed
(1:40 PM) TraderTim: what a scramble at that overshoot of 817 ES cash . . . took some stop management skills
(1:40 PM) thomas_Poland: they are hitting all buy stops
(1:41 PM) TraderTim: typical stop run
(1:41 PM) TraderTim: sell and buy
(1:41 PM) TraderTim: sweeping them up and down (you should see how they do it in TF...amazing)
(1:42 PM) thomas_Poland: I hope for all longs that this geometry sell setup will not fire
tomthetrader: Just look at C and BAC from my BUY
tomthetrader: I have gaine back unrealized all losses on these two panic selloff stocks in shares and options along with XLF UYG and WB WFC
tomthetrader: (10:21 AM) nimesh_: how oversold are we!!
tomthetrader: Yes 820 is the LEVERAGE LONGER POINT where we go 3:1 long
tomthetrader: (10:13 AM) TraderTim: A/D: -1917
tomthetrader: BUYING C in the IRA 50,000 shares at 3.50
tomthetrader: (10:27 AM) nimesh_: potential hammer on 5 min chart
tomthetrader: 822.00 cash 20 contracts long on the panic
(1:47 PM) thomas_Poland: sh ... again kicked out by Paltalk ... or Tom
(1:48 PM) thomas_Poland: Tim .. unfortunatelly sell setup may work
tomthetrader: (11:31 AM) TraderTim: A/D: -2120
tomthetrader: 820.00 was THE BOTTOM a/d will be + by the close
(1:49 PM) redliontrader: need to get over 830 battleground
tomthetrader: 12:20 PM) aszags: Tom I anticipate the up move next week as I have said but certainly will hold long until then
tomthetrader: yes
tomthetrader: 1150 NQ 25 contracts added on margin
(1:51 PM) redliontrader: sliced through 830.. wow
(1:52 PM) berniectx: my faith in TTT restored again as usual!!
(1:53 PM) redliontrader: wow, wow wow
(1:53 PM) csu30: NDX positive
tomthetrader: Q's calls and NDX making huge $$$$$$$$
tomthetrader: BAC
tomthetrader: C
tomthetrader: XLF
tomthetrader: GS
(1:53 PM) thomas_Poland: and good volume
tomthetrader: UYG
tomthetrader: Please believe it too
(1:54 PM) nimesh_: should hit some resistance on q's here
tomthetrader: it was options expiration tomfoolery ..take your profits and substitute your ETF's
(1:55 PM) berniectx: took a little want to re enter lower again
tomthetrader: C BAC really nets a ton of cash in the options market nearly 120K realized
tomthetrader: Just a real God Send considering our circumstance
tomthetrader: we were given a huge gift by the panic seling in financials near the lows
(1:58 PM) berniectx: wow I got out too early again but no losses
(1:59 PM) TraderTim: A/D: -1227 huge move up
tomthetrader: :34 AM) TraderTim: thx zags
tomthetrader: IWMBS picking up 40 contracts avg price 2.99
tomthetrader: NDUBM 10 contracts at 66.70
tomthetrader: FEB 1150 call
tomthetrader: 100 QAVAB at .76
(2:00 PM) redliontrader: sp500 A/D 1:1 after being down almost 1:9
(2:00 PM) JR Roden: I think some traders are started to get that "Oh S&*t" feeling now that I mentioned before about being on the wrong side of these Jan options.
(2:01 PM) TraderTim: Tom is on fire!!
(2:01 PM) berniectx: made a couple Tom want to re enter
(2:03 PM) thomas_Poland: NQ at 200 sma
(2:03 PM) thomas_Poland: Tim?
(2:03 PM) JR Roden: TTT this morning, I grabbed some QQQQ - Feb 29 calls and some SPY Feb 87 calls ... both doing well. Thanks for your begging ... those trades almost always turn out well.
tomthetrader: NDUBM 10 contracts sold IWMBS 40 and QAVAB 1.01
tomthetrader: HUGE GAINS
(2:04 PM) TraderTim: THOMAS: it is hitting it hard . . . this is break time
(2:04 PM) TraderTim: two hits boucned back so far
(2:05 PM) TraderTim: three times the charm?
(2:05 PM) thomas_Poland: 5th time it tries
(2:05 PM) thomas_Poland: from 8th
(2:06 PM) TraderTim: let's see if this bar closes above and next one for certainty
(2:06 PM) TraderTim: this was one of the best days TOM and the hardest to buy while bank selling panic made it tought to buy . . .but buy we did
(2:07 PM) thomas_Poland: TF on 200 sma
(2:07 PM) TraderTim: that ES overshoot at 817 was rough
tomthetrader: we are leveraging out back to 100%
tomthetrader: at 840.00 area
tomthetrader: we will keep the 2x ETF's and sell our options plays
tomthetrader: please document the gains if possible
tomthetrader: and they are all timestamped
(2:09 PM) berniectx: if only I would do half of what you do Tom I still don't listen and take action enough but am learning slowly
(2:09 PM) x_attitude_x: Hey All!
(2:10 PM) tomthetrader: x_attitude_x has been bounced from the group
(2:10 PM) berniectx: small win but a win nonetheless...lots of visitors today
(2:10 PM) TraderTim: THOMAS: NQ breaks and the others not yet. But struggling to stay above.
(2:10 PM) TraderTim: 200 sma that is
(2:12 PM) berniectx: hard to keep out emotion but you are a great teacher!!
tomthetrader: Thank you
(2:13 PM) TraderTim: well done tom Thank You for your pushing earlier
tomthetrader: and a lot of work to do before we get down to Thomas's 350 cash SPX ?
tomthetrader: Your Welcome Tim
tomthetrader: I said I wouldn't beg or put out begging offers like I will pay for all losses ! But that is how sure I was we would rally hard
tomthetrader: and we did
tomthetrader: Might be the last right thing but it got us a ton of cash
tomthetrader: which we had lost
tomthetrader: now we are going to hold 850 on the Friday close
tomthetrader: and we will be OK
(2:16 PM) pupster: you certainly couldn't have been any more correct this morning...!!
tomthetrader: and not join the fear mongering
(2:16 PM) berniectx: waiting for pullback but not getting it
tomthetrader: put my money where my mouth is
tomthetrader: we can't stop it now
(2:16 PM) pupster: I am amazed as to how you come back from the negative column just about always
(2:17 PM) pupster: really amazed.....
tomthetrader: I am amazed with the options markets ability
tomthetrader: to make 10's of thousands so quick
(2:17 PM) pupster: more like your ability..!!!
tomthetrader: Just frame this day and print this session
(2:18 PM) pupster: and sell it on EBAY

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