Friday, December 5, 2008


(9:45 AM) Fulkdaddy: Tom?
(9:45 AM) pupster1: did we lose audio
(9:45 AM) bloomert: no audio
(9:45 AM) Fulkdaddy: I hope we didn't lose Tom
(9:48 AM) redliontrader: Ad line weak?
(9:49 AM) TraderTim: A/D -1512
tomthetrader: 8247.50 2 long for a long term teade
tomthetrader: trade
(9:51 AM) thomas_Poland: for now TICK points to trend down day but we havve to wait some more
(9:54 AM) RV_trader: TLT new LOD
tomthetrader: selling YM for a profit here
tomthetrader: 8280
tomthetrader: will reenter
(9:55 AM) TraderTim: TLT has been parabolic . . . the aruj short looks good
tomthetrader: 8250 YM 2 long
tomthetrader: stop 8240.00
tomthetrader: stopped out with a 10 point loss
tomthetrader: buying QID
(9:58 AM) Fulkdaddy: I'm short
(9:58 AM) Fulkdaddy: Good job Tom
(9:58 AM) DE_TTT: TWM and MZZ
(9:58 AM) Fulkdaddy: You are a real, real pro
(9:59 AM) Fulkdaddy: TZA
(9:59 AM) Fulkdaddy: 3x bear
(10:01 AM) thomas_Poland: 15 min gap rule in effect now
(10:01 AM) Fulkdaddy: Here comes 815-818...this will be an interesting level...if it does not low could we go?
(10:01 AM) thomas_Poland: 807
(10:01 AM) pupster1: 813 is support
(10:01 AM) Fulkdaddy: Support so if it breaks I am worried
(10:01 AM) DE_TTT: 792
(10:01 AM) TraderTim: A/D -1759
(10:01 AM) Fulkdaddy: Yes, 813
(10:02 AM) DE_TTT: y
(10:02 AM) thomas_Poland: who know where we are now?
(10:02 AM) thomas_Poland: 826 is 78,6% retr
(10:02 AM) pupster1: 813 was on es Dec
(10:02 AM) TraderTim: This should get us our BUY sometime today
(10:02 AM) thomas_Poland: of the whole move up from Monday
(10:02 AM) DE_TTT: No matter where you go, there you are...
(10:06 AM) thomas_Poland: incredible 78,6 retr in ES
(10:06 AM) thomas_Poland: hope they will prove it wrong this tiem
(10:06 AM) thomas_Poland: time
tomthetrader: Looks like a suspicious BUY program at 8200 10:04 am
tomthetrader: PPT ?
(10:06 AM) thomas_Poland: could be
(10:06 AM) thomas_Poland:
(10:06 AM) Fulkdaddy: Person's Pivot support is 807
(10:07 AM) thomas_Poland: this is not what I said earlier Dave .. but they match
tomthetrader: sold QID
(10:10 AM) Fulkdaddy: 807-813 area will be huge..if 807 does not hold...then 793
(10:10 AM) Fulkdaddy: The buy the bad news trade was too highly anticipated for it to work???
tomthetrader: I worked very well
tomthetrader: It worked very well
(10:11 AM) Fulkdaddy: We all wanted a dip so we could buy
(10:11 AM) Fulkdaddy: Yes, in your short time it definitely did'
(10:11 AM) Fulkdaddy: I was thinking more of the entire day
(10:13 AM) Fulkdaddy: Tom, you played last weeks rally and get out at the top just really was awesome to observe
(10:15 AM) Fulkdaddy: Wow!
(10:16 AM) TraderTim: those darn rumors and the FED unexpected news events are what keeps me from shorting down here
(10:18 AM) Fulkdaddy: Kass said to Run don't walk to read Carter Worth's report on now vs. Dec. , you have that Tom?
(10:18 AM) Fulkdaddy: Kass thinks we should be slowing buying now for the long haul
(10:19 AM) Fulkdaddy: Tim, I am seriously thinking about covering.
tomthetrader: I agree
tomthetrader: avg bear 40 % Bull 400% that follows
tomthetrader: Have faith our country will come through longer term
tomthetrader: 3 trillion in stimulus hard to see market go much further than Nov lows
tomthetrader: 41.00 handle Oil /
(10:23 AM) thomas_Poland: die bulls
tomthetrader: yes could be time
tomthetrader: did you go long Thomas ?
(10:24 AM) thomas_Poland: no
(10:24 AM) thomas_Poland: I am short
tomthetrader: I am going to soon
(10:24 AM) thomas_Poland: 5 min after the open
tomthetrader: Nice big fat gains
(10:25 AM) RV_trader: need to watch Mondays lows
tomthetrader: yes
tomthetrader: that is the best way to track
tomthetrader: a strong bounce off there will be a huge BUY
tomthetrader: I am going to enter long there
(10:25 AM) RV_trader: agree Tom
tomthetrader: RV : what do you have as the buy area ?
(10:26 AM) thomas_Poland: ok took 12 points and going to reenter short later
tomthetrader: Congrats
(10:26 AM) RV_trader: 813-815 area Monday lows unless they step in front of it
tomthetrader: yes
(10:27 AM) Fulkdaddy: covered short
tomthetrader: and I think they are holding 8200 today now
(10:27 AM) RV_trader: Mondays volume was less then the next 2 days volume which suggest that the probe on Monday was rejected to the downside if they come in and retest we off to the races
tomthetrader: 100% YES
tomthetrader: and we are getting a TTT buy signal on 12 -14 indicators like the last rally
tomthetrader: 100% cash until we show strength 8250
(10:29 AM) thomas_Poland: For anyone who is interested in times etc
(10:29 AM) TraderTim: A/D -1977
(10:29 AM) thomas_Poland: after 1987 crash we made bottom on Dec 4 in unemployment week
(10:29 AM) thomas_Poland: and straight up into christmas
(10:29 AM) thomas_Poland: for bulls
(10:30 AM) Fulkdaddy: Similar to 1974...I will send Tom the chart.
(10:31 AM) TraderTim: Toddo: Watch S&P 818 as a higher low
(10:32 AM) pupster1: if you look at the need the 818 to hold for higher lows on day chart
(10:33 AM) aszager: I missed buying the qid shortly after the open on the pop at a limit of 79.5. it didn't hit it
(10:33 AM) JR Roden: 5 min chart was very divergent for MACD and Stochastic, which could lead to a temporary bounce.
(10:34 AM) Fulkdaddy: I want to get long here
(10:34 AM) TraderTim: Me too FULK, Tom is waiting for strength to confirm
(10:34 AM) pupster1: bought FAS at 21.56...short leash
(10:35 AM) TraderTim: if we hit 8250 it will show strength plus financials going positive and A/D improvement
tomthetrader: Yes yes yes
(10:36 AM) TraderTim: now I am beginning to understand his BUY STRENGTH (avoids cuts by falling knife)
(10:36 AM) TraderTim: XLF: -1%+ A/D still poor at -1986
(10:36 AM) Fulkdaddy: KRE -3.7
(10:37 AM) Fulkdaddy: long
(10:37 AM) Fulkdaddy: NQ 1101.50
(10:39 AM) Fulkdaddy: low volume on the bounce
tomthetrader: yes 93 0f 100 down naz qqq
(10:42 AM) Fulkdaddy: Bush should be good for a couple of hundred down
(10:42 AM) Fulkdaddy: Stop on NQ at 1098
(10:43 AM) Fulkdaddy: stopped
(10:44 AM) pupster1: whats that static audio...cant here
(10:44 AM) berniectx: JR mic
(10:44 AM) redliontrader: JR Roden's mic
(10:45 AM) pupster1: y
(10:45 AM) redliontrader: yup
(10:45 AM) berniectx: ok now
(10:45 AM) breadman8401: y
(10:46 AM) JR Roden: I've never been able to use Mic capabilities before ... so was it me?
tomthetrader: it showed up as a blink ..jut a paltalk BURP
tomthetrader: just
(10:47 AM) RV_trader: TLT did not make new highs with market lows
tomthetrader: 820.00 is a possible cash SPX entry for SSO
(10:48 AM) RV_trader: breath did not also make new lows on this push
tomthetrader: I agree RV
(10:48 AM) RV_trader: somethings up here Tom can see it internals
tomthetrader: I think we are seeing underbelly buying
(10:49 AM) Fulkdaddy: TRIN rollin gover
tomthetrader: as we are nowhere near the new lows and breadth numbers of the lows and it seems there is not as much PUNCH
tomthetrader: so I like going long SSO at 820.00
tomthetrader: seems like a quick trade long is in order
tomthetrader: Toddo has 818 RV a bit lower and I will buy 820 we have a range in here of players
tomthetrader: anyone else want to place a value area to buy ?
tomthetrader: cash SPX derivatives
(10:52 AM) RV_trader: with you Tom
(10:53 AM) thomas_Poland: TICK improved a little .. TRIN is good now
(10:53 AM) thomas_Poland: a/d line is improving?
(10:53 AM) thomas_Poland: RV shouldn't we have stage 3 now/
(10:54 AM) redliontrader: trin is imprving, tick heading in right dirction, vix beginning to roll over
tomthetrader: yes
(10:54 AM) TraderTim: A/D -1770
tomthetrader: BUY SSS at 820 Buy YM at 8250
tomthetrader: SSO sorry
tomthetrader: typing with eyeson fill screens
(10:57 AM) pupster1: i'm seeing buy interest in banks
tomthetrader: yes ...a key
tomthetrader: I am buying WFC WL in my retirement account
tomthetrader: PUP has been ON UYG and banks ...what do you see PUP ?
tomthetrader: GS ?
tomthetrader: RV ....GS ?
tomthetrader: C
tomthetrader: Taking off
(11:00 AM) TraderTim: XLF +.5%
(11:00 AM) RV_trader: GS did not make new lows on the day
tomthetrader: big rally off lows
(11:00 AM) TraderTim: A/D -1678
(11:00 AM) RV_trader: this would be low risk area to take shot on GS stop under 63.30
tomthetrader: I am adding to WFC GS WL in retirement accounts
tomthetrader: Yes
(11:01 AM) RV_trader: anticipating the higher low on it here
tomthetrader: earnings are going to be much better than the rumor numbers
(11:01 AM) thomas_Poland: this will be correction on 30 min chart?
(11:01 AM) RV_trader: filled 65.80
tomthetrader: GS 65.82
tomthetrader: 65.44 earlier
tomthetrader: scaling in to 10000 shares
(11:02 AM) RV_trader: daily setting up for a big imbalance move too GS
tomthetrader: for sevwral accounts
(11:02 AM) redliontrader: long sso 22.39
tomthetrader: Nice trades
tomthetrader: 22.39 SSO is going to be looked at as a unreal buy in early Jan
(11:08 AM) Frank_TTT: FAZ and FAS both positive, ??
(11:09 AM) pupster1: JPM broke November downtrend line and good up against todays lows .. other down trend is from Oct up against 35-36
tomthetrader: Yes ..that is the danger of those 2-3 x ETF 's !
tomthetrader: Thanks Frank and PUP
tomthetrader: THIS LULL IS BULLISH
(11:10 AM) pupster1: still long FAS ..added to it and brought my avg up to 21.9
(11:10 AM) Frank_TTT: so much for pretty charts, stopped out of NEM and UPW with more losses.
(11:11 AM) ctmhou: A/D: 577-2253
(11:11 AM) pupster1: GS good against this weeks lows for longer term outlook
tomthetrader: TRIN on NYSE now holding up our Buy signal with a put call smoothed reading
(11:11 AM) TraderTim: A/D -1647
(11:12 AM) ctmhou: TRIN: .82? yes/no?
(11:12 AM) berniectx: yes trin .82
(11:13 AM) ctmhou: Where should that number be?
tomthetrader: 2.5
(11:13 AM) ctmhou: OH! Thanks.
tomthetrader: anything now above 2.00
tomthetrader: but we are smoothed off better levels so we have ironically a BUY long term and just off a sell short term
tomthetrader: Got you confused now /
(11:14 AM) ctmhou: Tom, next time you and I spot a good one like DTO, hit me.
(11:15 AM) ctmhou: Aug
(11:15 AM) ctmhou: Your welcome
(11:15 AM) ctmhou: I still hurt, thogh.
(11:15 AM) ctmhou: though
(11:16 AM) ctmhou: yes
(11:16 AM) ctmhou: from mid 20's to ............
(11:16 AM) berniectx: truth and humility is good
(11:17 AM) redliontrader: I have never had a bad trade, 100% success
tomthetrader: OK
(11:17 AM) redliontrader: not
tomthetrader: and I have a manhattan penthouse you can use next month ..I will send the keys /
tomthetrader: address ?
(11:18 AM) redliontrader: i have all the bad habits, except I looking back at lost profits
(11:19 AM) redliontrader: if I get out even or green, it make me smile
tomthetrader: a mopup maybe a million a person /
tomthetrader: we will make all loyal TTT Traders 1 million each
tomthetrader: or I will eat my "hedge this" t-shirt
tomthetrader: BTW anyone interested in a TTT Hedge Fund T-Shirt for XMAS ?
tomthetrader: Naz holding up well
tomthetrader: Buy signal in NYSE
tomthetrader: HIT
tomthetrader: C leading banks ?
(11:21 AM) JR Roden: This sideways walk on the 5 min chart should be considered bullish ... correct?
tomthetrader: YES
tomthetrader: I consider it extremely bullish as we are on a NYSE BUY SIGNAL and BANKS are strong
(11:22 AM) thomas_Poland: because I hate Tom I will say bearish
(11:22 AM) thomas_Poland:
tomthetrader: Yes
tomthetrader: Fight
(11:22 AM) JR Roden: Thanks, that's what I thought, but I wanted to be sure.
(11:22 AM) redliontrader: I thought it is forming one of those pennant flag triangle thing which usualy breaks to the orginal direction - down?
(11:23 AM) thomas_Poland: yes can be also this one
tomthetrader: The fact that the LULL is only producing min lows and we hold Mon lows with financials up nice is BULLISH
(11:23 AM) redliontrader: when is our president on?
tomthetrader: Insurance companies Hartford etc ..very HOT
tomthetrader: -100
(11:24 AM) thomas_Poland: but I trade as we make bottom today or monday and rally into christmas?
tomthetrader: when GW takes podium /
tomthetrader: Yes Thomas but make sure you are in ES YM
(11:24 AM) redliontrader: 5 minutes til bush
tomthetrader: as tech may not participate for a good 10 sessions
tomthetrader: nearing LOD ?
(11:25 AM) thomas_Poland: bottom can be 12:30?
(11:26 AM) redliontrader: GM wants to become a bank - I think TTT Hedge should become a bank
tomthetrader: yes
tomthetrader: you saw the Huge reaction when I was offerring free T-shirts !
(11:27 AM) redliontrader: then we can all join up, put on crazy leveraged trades, can't loose, no risk
(11:28 AM) berniectx: trin popping again 1.05
tomthetrader: 22.00 Buy Limit in for 5000 SSO and 4 ES at 820.00
(11:28 AM) redliontrader: marekt sentiment roling over
tomthetrader: 8200 YM to buy strength
(11:29 AM) TraderTim: A/D -1818
(11:30 AM) redliontrader: bush is on
(11:31 AM) Frank_TTT: if oil keeps going down maybe we'll see gas wars at 25 cents a gallon like we did when I was a kid.
(11:32 AM) pupster1: out SKF even...had to sell with Bush on
(11:32 AM) TraderTim: no fill
(11:32 AM) berniectx: yes bot 1 es 821
(11:33 AM) redliontrader: bush is off
(11:33 AM) pupster1: that was short tube showing for Bush
(11:34 AM) berniectx: very nervous being long
tomthetrader: Good efforts by all of us today
tomthetrader: still 100% cash in My Traders account missing the retest of daily lows
(11:39 AM) thomas_Poland: on monday it looked almost the same
(11:40 AM) berniectx: out chicken today
(11:40 AM) thomas_Poland: but now I have signal for up move
(11:40 AM) berniectx: should have stayed...listen to TTT and Thomas
tomthetrader: BERNIE !
tomthetrader: I had Trader of the day written all over you !
(11:46 AM) berniectx: have no guts like you Tom
tomthetrader: you will and don't cut yourself short made the profit while I was on my thumbs ! Congrats !
tomthetrader: 4YM at 8200 stop 8180
tomthetrader: we will add 2 more here at 8200 for 6 long 8200
(11:50 AM) redliontrader: added XTO @ 29.54
tomthetrader: stop 8210 now on 6 YM
tomthetrader: 15% long Traders 85% cash approx
(11:52 AM) pupster1: back in on FAS at 22.61 avg...give it 1 more shot here..
tomthetrader: 8230 stops in 6 long
tomthetrader: 8240
tomthetrader: sold
tomthetrader: 6
tomthetrader: long YM
(11:53 AM) berniectx: why don't I listen to you patience for me
tomthetrader: 240 YM profits taken will buy again soon
tomthetrader: BERNIE ! I wish I had bought your 821 !
tomthetrader: Take it as a +
tomthetrader: ++++++++
(11:54 AM) berniectx: yes no losses today
tomthetrader: I love Traders and seeing them develop are OK is all ++++++++++
tomthetrader: RALLY
tomthetrader: GS
tomthetrader: UYG
(11:54 AM) TraderTim: A/D improve to -1456
tomthetrader: 240 YM points in profits are a good day
(11:55 AM) TraderTim: best level on A/D of day trending up since 10:45am
tomthetrader: tomthetrader: 22.00 Buy Limit in for 5000 SSO and 4 ES at 820.00
(11:28 AM) redliontrader: marekt sentiment roling over
tomthetrader: 8200 YM to buy strength
(11:56 AM) redliontrader: good chance to buy in here
(11:56 AM) thomas_Poland: if we go back into this range it means this was correction ?
(11:58 AM) redliontrader: SSO 22.39
(11:59 AM) redliontrader: 22.58
tomthetrader: Nice trades guys
(11:59 AM) ctmhou: I need a $5000.00 day.
(11:59 AM) JR Roden: How are you feeling about the move from here for the rest of the day?
tomthetrader: we had it charted put ..right bernie ?
(12:00 PM) berniectx: yes Tom...I always have fear though but you show me the way
(12:01 PM) ctmhou: Elliott Wave says that there is still a good chance for a Wave 5 pullback before it takes off. Don't know timeframe though. Don't even understand Elliott.
(12:02 PM) JR Roden: I got into some call options too early this AM, but it's now profitable, so I'm wondering if I should jump out now or ride it with a tight stop.
(12:02 PM) ctmhou: Short ES here?
(12:02 PM) pupster1: ES bounced nicely off that 813 level mentioned earlier vut hitting downtrend on the 5
(12:02 PM) ctmhou: A/D: 711-2194
(12:03 PM) ctmhou: TRIN: .77
(12:04 PM) ctmhou: Someone at Legg Mason call the bottom here I think yesterday.
(12:04 PM) ctmhou: Bill Miller?
(12:04 PM) pupster1: banks so far still looking good
(12:04 PM) ctmhou: lol
(12:04 PM) Fulkdaddy: Rev just mentioned Bill Miller in a post...I will forward to Tom
(12:06 PM) ctmhou: Oil at 41.65.WOW!
(12:06 PM) TraderTim: A/D -1476
(12:06 PM) pupster1: if u crack 833 u could see 740
(12:06 PM) pupster1: 840
(12:06 PM) ctmhou: SOmeone said that it will go to $25/brl
(12:07 PM) ctmhou: Not Houstonians who work in the oil patch.
(12:07 PM) ctmhou: Lower food?
(12:07 PM) aszager: we may have to loan saudi arabia money
(12:07 PM) TraderTim: In this case lower OIL will NOT offset troubles . . . so NO!!
(12:07 PM) ctmhou: I haven't seen that yet.
(12:07 PM) ctmhou: OOOOUUCCCHH!
(12:07 PM) TraderTim: DEFLATION seems good until you look at bigger picture . . . like will you have a job!!!
(12:08 PM) TraderTim: true, if you kept your job in depression you did OK
(12:09 PM) TraderTim: A/D -1312 XLF up 2% Hmmmm
(12:09 PM) aszager: I bought qld with the move up at 23.01 and 23.02 and have stop loss in that I am moving up
(12:09 PM) TraderTim: something brewing here
(12:09 PM) ctmhou: My Grandfather made $88/week back in the depression. He thought that he was rich and quit to go to Michigan to do work he had no idea what he was doing and lost thatjob too.
(12:10 PM) pupster1: sometimes the devil that you know is better than the devil that you don't know
tomthetrader: Long ES from 821 bernie ...I will still give you trader of the day for entering the position
tomthetrader: RV was also a stalwart at the lows
tomthetrader: giving us some very bullish points
tomthetrader: along with my official buy signal on NYSE given atthe lows
tomthetrader: It is a good group of traders here
tomthetrader: only getting better
tomthetrader: 8250 YM ?
(12:12 PM) Fulkdaddy: We broke the uptrend line on the 10 day and just rallied up to the bottom of it...short here?
tomthetrader: Look at TF what a daily move up
tomthetrader: I was going Long Dave ?
tomthetrader: 8250 ?
tomthetrader: we will see /
tomthetrader: Trend day still alive ?
(12:14 PM) thomas_Poland: yes it is
(12:16 PM) pupster1: took .6 on FAS
tomthetrader: Nice trade buddy
tomthetrader: 100% cash
(12:19 PM) JR Roden: Took my .15 profit off the table on my long SPY calls. I'd love to see it keep running north, but I'll take this for now.
(12:19 PM) thomas_Poland: anybody .. who bets the channel holds and who we go to the lower one ?
(12:19 PM) thomas_Poland: I am talking about the chart Tom sent
(12:20 PM) thomas_Poland: the move to lower one would be measured move
(12:22 PM) aszager: just sold qld at 23.3
(12:23 PM) aszager: may look to buy qid on a further drop
tomthetrader: 8250 YM seems to be hard to crack ..Dave may be right on the short from these levels
(12:25 PM) Fulkdaddy: great chart Thomas...I think we go lower, then up
tomthetrader: Zags you may be onto something
tomthetrader: QID may be a good spot but I can't commit to a short ...only daytrade
(12:25 PM) thomas_Poland: 12:30 is very important for me
tomthetrader: seems naz can get hurt worst
(12:25 PM) thomas_Poland: it can be top
(12:25 PM) thomas_Poland: by my seiko
(12:26 PM) aszager: y
(12:26 PM) bloomert: y
(12:26 PM) pupster1: y
(12:26 PM) berniectx: y
(12:26 PM) gerry204: y
(12:26 PM) wclegg: y
(12:26 PM) JR Roden: y
(12:26 PM) redliontrader: k
(12:26 PM) thomas_Poland: y
(12:26 PM) Fulkdaddy: I am blocked out of audio
tomthetrader: Dave go ahead and sign back in
tomthetrader: or push to talk
(12:27 PM) thomas_Poland: why do I see minus signs ?
(12:27 PM) Fulkdaddy: Now I got it
(12:27 PM) aszager: good
(12:27 PM) berniectx: good
(12:27 PM) bloomert: good
(12:27 PM) Fulkdaddy: I want to short so bad here
(12:28 PM) les13436: y
(12:28 PM) jbljudy: y
(12:28 PM) aszager: I am looking to buy qid below 81
(12:29 PM) JR Roden: hrly chart really looking to roll upward
(12:29 PM) nimesh_: rally hard today?
(12:30 PM) redliontrader: choppy , choppy but slight bias up here, but too choppy to really tell
(12:31 PM) thomas_Poland: 12:30 top?
(12:32 PM) Fulkdaddy: Short NQ at 1114.50
(12:32 PM) Fulkdaddy: Keep talking...breaking down
(12:32 PM) thomas_Poland: seiko watch worked again ?
(12:32 PM) thomas_Poland: at least for few points?
(12:33 PM) aszager: Qid broke 81 and I didn't take it . Now it is at 81.85
(12:34 PM) thomas_Poland: I don't like it came below 828 in ES
(12:35 PM) Fulkdaddy: Cramer thinks XOM is the tell today
(12:35 PM) TraderTim: OIL and Market go DOWN together
(12:36 PM) TraderTim: OIL says deflation/recession and earnings will follow . . .
tomthetrader: POLL : Is this the worst employment condition and how does it rank from last 100 years
tomthetrader: 5th 10th 25Th 41st ?
(12:36 PM) Fulkdaddy: No but this one is not at the bottom yet...IMHO
tomthetrader: you get a t-shirt if you get answer right
(12:37 PM) Fulkdaddy: I would say on its way to 2nd worst
(12:37 PM) TraderTim: 2009 worse ever
(12:37 PM) berniectx: bad but not the worst??
(12:37 PM) Fulkdaddy: 12%ish unemployment based on how the government used to tally the #'s
tomthetrader: Answer ?
(12:37 PM) Fulkdaddy: 6.7% is hogwash
tomthetrader: 5th 10th 25th 41st ?
(12:38 PM) berniectx: guess 5th
(12:38 PM) TraderTim: depends on how you ask the quesiton? Are many of the traders here "unemployed"? so 25th
tomthetrader: 74 last time we saw losses and it markerd the bottom in abear ..we are now officially in 41st place
tomthetrader: so there have been 40 other times where employment worse !
tomthetrader: 41st
(12:40 PM) Fulkdaddy: In my next life, I want to come back as TraderTim...retired at 32!
tomthetrader: things are not that bad comparatively
(12:40 PM) Bert_TTT: Not the worst yet..Since Congress and the political process doesn't handle things the best they will probably screw up the automaker situation and will move much higher on the list (or further down)
(12:40 PM) TraderTim: the trader ranks will grow as the unemployed join TTT (that keeps the number low )
(12:40 PM) Fulkdaddy: But Tom, the trajectory is in free fall so the we can't really compare it until it is over...we may get -600k next month
tomthetrader: agree but we have to deal with the facts and facts are we have a worse loss in wealth but ONLY the 41st worst employment situation
tomthetrader: and wages for those who are still working are gong UP
tomthetrader: and inflation spiralling down
(12:41 PM) Bert_TTT: But you are comparing our current position with the other bottoms
tomthetrader: yes
tomthetrader: we can only speculate on the future
tomthetrader: we can only guess ..they are yesterdays numbers
(12:42 PM) Bert_TTT: Our bottom in this "lagging indicator" is still a ways off.
tomthetrader: yes ..either way ?
tomthetrader: maybe revise up ?
tomthetrader: maybe worst is over with a new President !
(12:43 PM) Bert_TTT: Side bet on at least 9%
(12:44 PM) Bert_TTT: Even money
tomthetrader: US government would never print 9% as they will hire new statisticians
tomthetrader: or get a new pencil ?
(12:44 PM) Bert_TTT: Even with Obamas figures
tomthetrader: with a eraser
tomthetrader: too bad we can't blame anything on new president until at least march /
tomthetrader: GW takes the hit until then
(12:45 PM) Bert_TTT: I'll still bet we get there...He'll just blame it on Bush and the Democratic congress
tomthetrader: agree
(12:45 PM) Bert_TTT: He'll forget that last part, however
tomthetrader: makes for a enourmous Bull market !
(12:46 PM) aszager: I bought and sold qld late yesterday and today both at a profit but were uncomfortable taking a long position
(12:46 PM) Bert_TTT: But not for a while and from lower levels
tomthetrader: still think 8250 DJIA is important hold
tomthetrader: New lows bert /
tomthetrader: ?
(12:48 PM) Bert_TTT: On a closing basis, I assume
tomthetrader: How many think we get new bear lows before a rally ?
(12:48 PM) aszager: NO NO NO
tomthetrader: NO NO NO
(12:48 PM) Bert_TTT: How much of a rally
(12:48 PM) pupster1: agree
tomthetrader: 40%
tomthetrader: -400%
(12:49 PM) Fulkdaddy: I think we rally 1st and then DOW 6000
tomthetrader: Thanks
(12:49 PM) Bert_TTT: But a 40% rally?
(12:49 PM) pupster1: bear market rally 25%-50% ..typical
tomthetrader: agree
tomthetrader: we have had 6
(12:49 PM) berniectx: wow Dave Dow 6000
tomthetrader: this bear market
(12:49 PM) pupster1: Dave might be right on that front unfortunately
(12:49 PM) aszager: I don't think we will break the lows this year but next year watch out below
(12:49 PM) TraderTim: I go with FULK, a rally first will cause the most pain (people waiting will have to chase) only to crush them after they chase
tomthetrader: really
(12:50 PM) Fulkdaddy: I heard the 10 largest financial institutions: GS, C, JPM, etc...around the world, have been buying and selling one anothers CDO's in order to keep the market price up so they do not have to take a big mark to market hit.
(12:50 PM) Fulkdaddy: Swapping
(12:50 PM) Fulkdaddy: BS was the 1st who broke the aggreement
(12:50 PM) pupster1: i think i'm leaning in that camp of look out below mid-year next year
tomthetrader: My forecast is we hold the lows here and rally hard into 09 1100 spx and then a 20% correction and then a NEW BULL market up 200-400%
(12:51 PM) Bert_TTT: a 25% rally would get us to 10,000 on the Dow that would reassure the buy and holders. Maybe a little higher then I also believe in look out below
(12:51 PM) pupster1: hope your right Tom...that would be easier to trade
(12:51 PM) Frank_TTT: i'm hoping for a rally to load up on ulta shorts, i agree with fulk but even see lower numbers
(12:52 PM) pupster1: 480 S&P ...?
(12:52 PM) Fulkdaddy: $84 Trillion in revolving CDO's
(12:52 PM) Fulkdaddy: JPM with the most exposure
(12:52 PM) Fulkdaddy: This can't end good
tomthetrader: The historical evidence is all on the side of the bulls .
(12:52 PM) Bert_TTT: Pup that's one of the lowest I've seen
tomthetrader: maybe this is the "it's different this time'
(12:53 PM) Fulkdaddy: We are holding the NQ uptrend line from the 10:20 am low
(12:53 PM) berniectx: you guys scare me even more but want to trade in the mean time to save my retirement
(12:53 PM) Frank_TTT: s&p earnings to $40, low of bear market p/e typical 7-9. do the math
(12:53 PM) TraderTim: FULK, that is a bad situation, the question is whether it is already DISCOUNTED? If it isn't, you are right, not good.
(12:53 PM) pupster1: SCARED HERE AS WELL
tomthetrader: but 41st worst employment situation and already a 50% drop ?
tomthetrader: Math rarely works in stock trading
(12:54 PM) Bert_TTT: We have many more "fat tail" events than there really should be given normal distributions. Maybe we have the wrong "normal" data
(12:54 PM) thomas_Poland: Tom but we have to say that ... historical evidence was on the side of the bull more than month now?
tomthetrader: and what was our rally off the lows to highs ?
(12:54 PM) Fulkdaddy: Tom, they don't count unemployment the same...the Clinton Administration changed it so if you are now on unemployement over 6 months they take you off the tally
tomthetrader: 30% ?
tomthetrader: So it is different this time ?
(12:55 PM) Bert_TTT: History said the goventment intervention would cause the rally
tomthetrader: yes the last 8 years has been a Quant conundrum
tomthetrader: Bert is 100% right
tomthetrader: which is why we are down 50% ?
(12:56 PM) Bert_TTT: We are in the 14-17 year corrective phase
(12:56 PM) Fulkdaddy: oil falling off a cliff...under $40 today?
(12:56 PM) Bert_TTT: Starting in 2000
(12:56 PM) Fulkdaddy: yes bert
(12:56 PM) Fulkdaddy: Structural bear
(12:57 PM) Fulkdaddy: TRIN creeping up Thomas
(12:57 PM) TraderTim: Tom, the reason Bert/Fulk/Tim and others took of short term trading was becasue we believe in Bert's 14-17 corrective phase and needed new skills to make money.
tomthetrader: so we just blanket take the idea the US is dead and so short it ...that is why you have that computer and account ...with that knowledge we all could be millionares ..trillionaires
tomthetrader: Howshort are you gyys .?
(12:57 PM) TraderTim: not short . . . short term
(12:58 PM) thomas_Poland: Tom .. it is hard to put money where the mouth is
(12:58 PM) thomas_Poland:
tomthetrader: What was that 200% runup from 03-07 ?
(12:58 PM) TraderTim: apparently just a bear market rally
tomthetrader: or does that not count either did GW rule out that ?
(12:58 PM) thomas_Poland: this 12:30 seiko hour was great
(12:58 PM) Fulkdaddy: Bear market rally
(12:59 PM) Fulkdaddy: Bubble
(12:59 PM) TraderTim: phamtom wealth (false asset growth based on debt)
tomthetrader: 4 year bear market rally !
tomthetrader: Holy cow there is anew one ?
(12:59 PM) Fulkdaddy: Go look back at the rallies in the 70's some went over two years
tomthetrader: it was not a Bull market ?
tomthetrader: Was 2003 -2007 a bull market /
(1:00 PM) Fulkdaddy: Cyclical bull, secular bear
(1:00 PM) TraderTim: maybe the labeling is the problem since we all are seeing the same trends
tomthetrader: Elliot wave now ?
(1:01 PM) Fulkdaddy: stopped on NQ for 1.5 pts
tomthetrader: fearful of rally ?
(1:02 PM) Fulkdaddy: yes
tomthetrader: If we are going to 400 I would buy and hold 3x ETF for 1 year ?
tomthetrader: and you would be a millionaire no ?
(1:03 PM) Bert_TTT: Could be rally with auto bailout
(1:03 PM) Fulkdaddy: Can't take the drawdown
(1:03 PM) Frank_TTT: amen
tomthetrader: so you have to depend on market timing to play the up then get short
tomthetrader: so no drawdown
(1:04 PM) Fulkdaddy: y
tomthetrader: but the plan is 600-400 spx in 2009 ?
(1:04 PM) Fulkdaddy: y
tomthetrader: you could buy options cheap ? puts ?
(1:04 PM) TraderTim: A/D -1300
(1:04 PM) Fulkdaddy: Marty Chenard is also on board with this
tomthetrader: and not have thatbig of drawdown
(1:05 PM) TraderTim: XLF +1.5%
tomthetrader: banks very strong
(1:05 PM) ctmhou: Then we buy SDS and go play golf until next summer?
tomthetrader: yes
(1:05 PM) Fulkdaddy: What's happening here Tom?
tomthetrader: Rally
(1:05 PM) Fulkdaddy: Broke 8250
tomthetrader: yes
(1:06 PM) aszager: I still have qld. I sold some at 23.3 and am watching to unload more but look at the dow
tomthetrader: key reversal day up ? or just knocking shorts out for a drop
(1:07 PM) thomas_Poland: 836 ES resistance
(1:07 PM) aszager: no
(1:07 PM) ctmhou: Maybe short ES at 842?
(1:07 PM) thomas_Poland: 78,6% retr
tomthetrader: I will leave the next trade up to you all 1
tomthetrader: !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(1:08 PM) aszager: I bought 15000 and sold 5000 at 23.3 and will sell the rest
(1:09 PM) ctmhou: Thomas, will ES pullback to 824?
(1:09 PM) thomas_Poland: if it will Craig we will go much lower
(1:09 PM) ctmhou: I like how Zags doesn't mess around.
(1:10 PM) pupster1: long again FAS at 22.85
(1:10 PM) ctmhou: He commits funds...........
(1:11 PM) JR Roden: Hourly chart begging to roll up now for a least a short term pop. I went long the QQQQ.
(1:11 PM) pupster1: we all need to get in the same league as Zags and Tom...players with $
(1:12 PM) TraderTim: A/D 0974
(1:12 PM) aszager: It is funny that three days ago I was buying and selling qid in the 74-77 range and today it was at 83
(1:12 PM) TraderTim: A/D -971
(1:13 PM) ctmhou: Just think Zgas if only you could have held.
(1:14 PM) ctmhou: Zags
(1:15 PM) aszager: I still have 10000 qld and have been watching it go up
(1:16 PM) ctmhou: ES is getting short term overbought on the 5 min chart and coming up on some resistance from earlier.
(1:16 PM) Frank_TTT: buying the bounce of 50 dma off many of the ultrashorts in the last week and just holding to now would have netted 20-30% easy. this fear of a massive bear market rally stopped me from doing it, and i'm sure i'm not alone
(1:19 PM) aszager: Frank same thing here
(1:19 PM) Frank_TTT: that to me is the conundrum (remember that word from the fed a while back!) we are in.
(1:19 PM) Frank_TTT: does anyone here think all the problems we have right now will be over in 6-9 months from now?
(1:20 PM) pupster1: no
(1:20 PM) pupster1: 3 year - 5 maybe
(1:21 PM) thomas_Poland: I still don't believe in this rally
(1:22 PM) thomas_Poland: but if we make HOD for today trend day is obiously gone
(1:22 PM) aszager: Thomas are you short because I still want to buy qid
(1:23 PM) Frank_TTT: pup & you have a long term short position that you just leave on and don't try to nano second trade it?
(1:23 PM) pupster1: nope
(1:24 PM) pupster1: long UYG
(1:24 PM) Frank_TTT: does anyone here have a long term short position?
(1:24 PM) thomas_Poland: zags???
(1:24 PM) thomas_Poland: did not understand the question
(1:25 PM) aszager: I have been carrying far out of the money naked calls on qid and twm which is a bullish position
(1:25 PM) thomas_Poland: why would I want to be sure when you have QID?
(1:25 PM) thomas_Poland: or I misunderstood?
(1:26 PM) thomas_Poland:
(1:26 PM) thomas_Poland: short not sure
(1:26 PM) thomas_Poland: I am not short right now
(1:27 PM) thomas_Poland: I was in the morning and once around 12:30 ... stopped out with two points loss
(1:27 PM) thomas_Poland: still positive on the day
(1:27 PM) thomas_Poland: and still waiting for short
(1:27 PM) aszager: I don't have qid right now the double inverse but have been considering it when i sell my remaining double bull qld but qld keeps moving up
(1:28 PM) thomas_Poland: so you have calls on QLD not QID?
(1:30 PM) Frank_TTT: if all those talking heads from the boob tube that keep saying this is the buying opp of a lifetime would put their $ where there mouth is the market would go up 1000 points
(1:31 PM) aszager: I sold naked calls far out of the money a few weeks ago on twm and qid which is a bullish position when you don't own the stock
(1:31 PM) h4m2006: ctmhou, what's ur take on ES now. seemes to have had a pop up
tomthetrader: Agree frank !
tomthetrader: who is H4M ?
tomthetrader: 2006 ?
(1:34 PM) aszager: Dow just broke 8300
tomthetrader: I think the rally into 2:00pm is PUBLIC lead
tomthetrader: 1:56 am audio updated
(1:36 PM) pupster1: Green close today...!!!
(1:36 PM) Frank_TTT: how about an end of the week short covering rally?
tomthetrader: banks will I think
(1:36 PM) pupster1: pretty please
tomthetrader: GS ?
tomthetrader: how is that trade going ?
(1:37 PM) pupster1: no risk up against 65....good trade right here
(1:37 PM) pupster1: 65 low
(1:37 PM) pupster1: next price point would be 60.22
(1:39 PM) aszager: just sold my qld at 23.6
tomthetrader: (11:01 AM) RV_trader: filled 65.80
tomthetrader: GS 65.82
tomthetrader: 65.44 earlier
tomthetrader: RUSSELL positive
tomthetrader: manic buying by the public ?
(1:43 PM) aszager: Does that mean you will be selling Tom?
(1:43 PM) Frank_TTT: since the market didn't collapse on crappy report today, ppt could give it a boost and try to start the mojo up
tomthetrader: very soon ...unless the hedgies decide to BUY BUY BUY for performance on a MOMO trade
(1:43 PM) JR Roden: qqqq really trying to get positive.
tomthetrader: we can jump on the RUT move
tomthetrader: 27.50 was a BUY QQQQ
(1:44 PM) Frank_TTT: nas green
tomthetrader: this is where we seperate the men from the boys
(1:44 PM) redliontrader: looking good for more upside.
(1:45 PM) aszager: I sold my qld at 23.6 and now it is at the high of the day 24
(1:45 PM) Frank_TTT: ppt, short coverers, mojo for 5%'s --- get them all to pile in. get on the phone ttt!!!!!!
tomthetrader: Yep been on the phone Frank !
(1:46 PM) Frank_TTT:
tomthetrader: we had so many shpts at this market today
tomthetrader: shots
(1:47 PM) JR Roden: Let's see a monstrous short covering rally into the close.
(1:48 PM) Fulkdaddy: Another day or rallying on terrible news...this has got to be bullish intermediate term
(1:48 PM) aszager: Tom tell us exactly when and if the market is going to collapse
(1:48 PM) Frank_TTT: tp..stilll don't trust it?
(1:48 PM) Fulkdaddy: If we hold this rally
(1:48 PM) Fulkdaddy: A/D -315
(1:49 PM) pupster1: trust it....lows are probably in short thinks...
(1:49 PM) aszager: I jumped off my qld and it is going to the moon
tomthetrader: Key intraday reversal eating up all shorts stops
(1:49 PM) Fulkdaddy: Here we are back at 845
tomthetrader: I guess the bear will growl next week ...motnh ..yeqr
tomthetrader: deja vu all over again
(1:50 PM) pupster1: on a close basis we have higher lows
tomthetrader: Naz maybe one of the biggest fakeouts in quite a while /
(1:50 PM) pupster1: we are setting up for more up...yes
tomthetrader: banks carrying the load /
tomthetrader: RUT
(1:51 PM) pupster1: who mentioned the banks this morning
(1:51 PM) thomas_Poland: Frank I am back
tomthetrader: TF
(1:51 PM) pupster1: still long FAS 3rd time today...
(1:51 PM) thomas_Poland: I wrote before I will trust it when we make HOF
(1:51 PM) thomas_Poland: HOD
tomthetrader: XLF GS C UYG XLF
(1:51 PM) aszager: Tom McHugh is also bullish with an anticipated 20% move from Thurs low
tomthetrader: Really
tomthetrader: I read his last report and left me not able to understand /
tomthetrader: again
tomthetrader: I am not schooled in mcHugh talk ?
(1:52 PM) thomas_Poland: me neither
(1:52 PM) thomas_Poland:
(1:52 PM) thomas_Poland: 200 sma above
tomthetrader: But his membership has growm exponentially in this bear while most have dropped
(1:52 PM) thomas_Poland: 850
(1:53 PM) thomas_Poland: Tom ... even broken clock is right two times a day
(1:53 PM) thomas_Poland:
(1:53 PM) JR Roden: That's why I stopped getting his newsletter (McH), because he seemed to have a scenario for every possible outcome.
(1:53 PM) aszager: You have to turn his report upside down and read it in front of a mirror
tomthetrader: AHHHHHH
tomthetrader: I knew there was a trick
tomthetrader: be right back ..will set it up !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
tomthetrader: Yes a 20% rally from todays lows
tomthetrader: POK
tomthetrader: OK
tomthetrader: Here we go ! Phi date Nov 21st ?
(1:54 PM) aszager: He also anticipated an up day today based on stochastics
tomthetrader: and the next is ?
tomthetrader: and the Phi date does what /
(1:54 PM) aszager: I think about Dec 21
(1:55 PM) Bert_TTT: 20% or 25% from todays lows I can buy into
(1:56 PM) Bert_TTT: 40% is a little too optimistic for me
(1:56 PM) thomas_Poland: please people .. don't tell me you will start to say bad word about McHugh
(1:56 PM) thomas_Poland: please
(1:56 PM) thomas_Poland: Phi my ass
(1:56 PM) thomas_Poland: He was right with Phi date but he did not know it
(1:56 PM) thomas_Poland: sorry
(1:56 PM) thomas_Poland: now he knows he was right
tomthetrader: YES
(1:56 PM) pupster1: is that Apple Phi...?
tomthetrader: 850
tomthetrader: Buying steength
(1:56 PM) aszager: Much of his report is a repeat every day after page 2 and 3. I have found you indeed have to learn how to translate his first few pages
tomthetrader: strength
(1:57 PM) pupster1: i think i called the market today if i'm not mistaken
(1:57 PM) pupster1: lol
(1:57 PM) thomas_Poland: so the higher channel on 30 min chart worked
tomthetrader: Yes PUP : welcome back and RV were STRONG LONGS AT THE BOTTOM
(1:57 PM) pupster1: still long FAS
tomthetrader: XLF up 45 cents ?
tomthetrader: makes those bears think 2x any ways ?
tomthetrader: got green on all inices
tomthetrader: indices
(1:58 PM) aszager: i was a nervous long when i bought qld and wanted out. i left another point on the table
(1:58 PM) Frank_TTT: oil bounced
tomthetrader: and even oil acting better
tomthetrader: Frank we are thinking alike ?
tomthetrader: That is bad news /
(1:59 PM) thomas_Poland: ok 200 sma stopped the mve for now
(1:59 PM) TraderTim: TLT down
tomthetrader: Key reversal .....I gave it a low % and trend day down high % ?
tomthetrader: Bonds will push $$$$$$$$$$$ into stocks
tomthetrader: TWM quite a daily chart
(2:00 PM) Frank_TTT: wouldn't suprise me to see DTO give back 30% in 2 days
(2:01 PM) pupster1: sold FAS with 1.3 pft
(2:02 PM) redliontrader: need to see oil go green, financials are improving, need to ease deflation fears next, then housing then jobs. We can go a long way on each of these improvments over the next year(s)
(2:05 PM) aszager: I would have lost my pants if I would have bought qid less than 81. The only reason I didn't was I was holding my qld and following it up
tomthetrader: X acting well
tomthetrader: nice comeback
tomthetrader: 27.50 was a Buy buy buy
tomthetrader: Q's
(2:08 PM) redliontrader: So GS whisper number is -4.00. Consensus = -2.50. Tom you think -2.50 is in the price or -4.00? and there is upside on which number?
tomthetrader: again 850 is the level
tomthetrader: GS is a great play here if you think the whisper is WAT TOO LOW
(2:18 PM) redliontrader: I love PSA. I scalp it almost everyday for a little spending money.
tomthetrader: gosh 8200 seems along time ago /
tomthetrader: 820 ?
tomthetrader: RUT ?
tomthetrader: all seems like it didn't happen today
(2:21 PM) RV_trader: breath still a little light can they hold on or sell it off into the close
tomthetrader: I don't buy it RV I am selling my GS
tomthetrader: taking the money and running for now
(2:23 PM) RV_trader: yeah this whole rally had been suspious
tomthetrader: Public
tomthetrader: maybe a short in here on ES
tomthetrader: at 850 ?
(2:23 PM) RV_trader: hey at least we held Mondays lows but really have gone no where all week
(2:23 PM) RV_trader: stayed with in that range
(2:23 PM) RV_trader: next week look for big move out of this area
(2:24 PM) RV_trader: 815-875 currnet balnce area for the week
tomthetrader: yes and we got some oversold signals ..just cannot get a good buy signal one on NYSE but Naz scares me a bit
(2:24 PM) arujunaa: fyi, i'm covering my 10yr future short here from this morning
tomthetrader: GREEN ALL OVER
tomthetrader: I am short all bonds
tomthetrader: meaning i expect rates to double by this time next year
tomthetrader: all GREEN
tomthetrader: Q's up 1%
tomthetrader: 850 is the key for the Bulls
(2:27 PM) RV_trader: 853-854 Globex highs will come into play here IF we can make it on rpobe over 850
(2:28 PM) redliontrader: oil crashing
(2:28 PM) redliontrader: could break into the 30s
tomthetrader: historic rates
(2:31 PM) arujunaa: which rates tom? i'll take the under
tomthetrader: 1st of agencies auctions now
(2:31 PM) tycole99:
tomthetrader: Aruj ...I am saying rates will double by this time next year ...tell me I am wrong /
(2:32 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: Hi guys
tomthetrader: Gas could hit 90 cents a gallon from Gulf oil CEO
tomthetrader: Hi Nick !
(2:33 PM) arujunaa: do you think the 2yr will double, the 10yr, the 30yr? it makes a difference
tomthetrader: OK 10 year
(2:33 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: I just saw $1.71 regular at ARCO station here in San Diego. Unbelieveable
tomthetrader: 30 day will 20 X ?
tomthetrader: 1.59 here
(2:33 PM) arujunaa: so, 5.25% on 10s? you're crazy....but in a good way................
tomthetrader: good
tomthetrader: I love to hear that
tomthetrader: Bond Bubble ..economy much stronger than people think
(2:35 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: I was able to get out of my 4 long ES at 853.50 last nite at b/e...thank god because the jobs # was horrible this morning!
tomthetrader: Guess how many Out of stocks are reported at Walmart for today from Sony playstation to hannah montana garb ?
(2:35 PM) redliontrader: GJ nick. I was wonder about your ES's. That must make you feel great.
(2:35 PM) arujunaa: bond bubble? we haven't even seen the low yield for this cycle yet.
tomthetrader: Oh come on ?
tomthetrader: you saw it when you sold ?
tomthetrader: !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
(2:36 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: Ok so if the return on the 30 day will 20x...let me think this thru...that means that the price of the 30 day bond will come down...ok so can we short 30 day bonds? How does one do that? Directly? Or thru etfs?
(2:37 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: Thanks Red....I was up all nite restless being long like that, so I checked it a little after midnight PT and was able to get out within 30 mins of watching it...hit a hi for the nite...was so happy slept till 10am this morning!
(2:37 PM) arujunaa: i don't believe i sold the highs, tom. seriously. i think we can make new low yields. in the sort term, 10s to 2.40ish%
tomthetrader: UYG soaring
(2:37 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: Moral of the story, don't go to bed being long futures in the face of direct econ reports!
tomthetrader: glad you survived
tomthetrader: and it is survival these days /
tomthetrader: Key intraday reversal has to finish with a 880 close
(2:38 PM) Frank_TTT: ttt....closing price prediction?
tomthetrader: 63 VIX
tomthetrader: Cashin wants high volume run up
(2:39 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: What are our open pos's right now?
tomthetrader: but still thinks we are OK ?
tomthetrader: 100% cash
(2:39 PM) pupster1: i'll take right here for a close
(2:39 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: Hopefully you caught the 817 bottom
(2:39 PM) pupster1: how bout that
(2:40 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: Did you make any money today earlier?
tomthetrader: Bernie nailed 821 !!!!!
(2:40 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: nice bernie
tomthetrader: Yes we all made money
tomthetrader: which is good
tomthetrader: I think we all did /
(2:40 PM) pupster1: went long FAS 4th time and profitable 3 out of 4 with a be trade in there
(2:40 PM) pupster1: BE
tomthetrader: My NYSE signal was as good as a TTT BUY
(2:41 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: ES approaching +200 (overbought) on Woodies
(2:41 PM) aszager: spx is at 855.78
(2:41 PM) pupster1: FAS long at 24.02
tomthetrader: tomthetrader: THIS LULL IS BULLISH
(11:10 AM) pupster1: still long FAS ..added to it and brought my avg up to 21.9
(2:42 PM) redliontrader: still struggling with XTO position from y'day. Need to make it to 31.97. Is it going to get there?
(2:43 PM) Frank_TTT: looking like another "bear trap" day
(2:43 PM) pupster1: in it my 4th time today with 3 profitable trades and 1 Break Even...this last is long at 24.02
(2:43 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: what your suggested vehicle
(2:44 PM) pupster1: Tom you have an avg of
(2:44 PM) redliontrader: oil bounced off 40.50, now up $1 over low
(2:44 PM) TraderTim: A/D +420
tomthetrader: tremendous
(2:45 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: long 2 es @ 857.75
(2:46 PM) Fulkdaddy: Note the store
(2:46 PM) Fulkdaddy: Walmart...even the hedge funds are shopping there
(2:47 PM) Fulkdaddy: n
(2:47 PM) ajayvee: never heard of them
(2:47 PM) ajayvee: symbol?
(2:47 PM) Frank_TTT: bke
(2:48 PM) Frank_TTT: nice run lately,
(2:48 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: es taking a breather from HOD
(2:48 PM) Fulkdaddy: good volume on the runups
(2:49 PM) pupster1: broke down treend ... 5 waves down and now u can draw some Fibs on that
(2:49 PM) pupster1: looks good .. BKE
(2:50 PM) pupster1: kids don't understand depression though Tom
tomthetrader: Just a point !
(2:50 PM) pupster1: hear ya
(2:50 PM) berniectx: walked away for 40 minutes WOW
tomthetrader: Bernie !
(2:51 PM) berniectx: missed the big move
(2:51 PM) pupster1: hows the accent on that one on CNBC now...nice
(2:51 PM) pupster1: anchor ladt that is
(2:51 PM) arujunaa: tom, to answer your question from above, i would sell bond futures. the ticker is USH9. also, tbt & tlt. but i never trade these. margin on bond futures at oxp is about $4000 per contract i think. for non-fixed income investors, tbt & tlt is probably the way to go
tomthetrader: we do have all the earmarks of a KEY REVERSAL DAY WHICH IS VERY BULLISH LONGTERM
tomthetrader: Thank you Aruj !
(2:52 PM) thomas_Poland: 2:55 possible top
tomthetrader: Aruj : the economy is way more healthy than 99% of people think
tomthetrader: IMHO
tomthetrader: But I am always the optimist as you know
tomthetrader: But it does payoff !
(2:53 PM) Fulkdaddy: What do you see Thomas?
(2:53 PM) arujunaa: that's what makes a market, right?!
(2:54 PM) thomas_Poland: test of 200 sma and rally again?
(2:54 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: TP where is the 200?
(2:54 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: what level
(2:54 PM) thomas_Poland: 850
(2:54 PM) thomas_Poland: magic level?
tomthetrader: I think the key re4versal is much like what started the bear in June
(2:55 PM) arujunaa: tom, do you read ISI for economics?
tomthetrader: yes you like it /
(2:55 PM) Fulkdaddy: NEd Davis Market Cap Model strongly favors small caps again this month
(2:55 PM) thomas_Poland: today at 1:10 and 2:35 were two great momentum trades
(2:55 PM) thomas_Poland: I missed it
(2:56 PM) thomas_Poland: Dave you got Ned Davies?
(2:56 PM) thomas_Poland: Davis
(2:56 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: sorry tp
tomthetrader: Yes NED is Bullish ..I get to work with him occassionally and we colloborate
(2:56 PM) Fulkdaddy: NO one of the writers on Real Money just posted it
(2:56 PM) arujunaa: i think for unbiased economic research, isi is the best
tomthetrader: yes
(2:56 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: im long 4 es @867
tomthetrader: Piling on
tomthetrader: and very very Bullish
tomthetrader: economy good ...rates going up stocks going up ..what is a bull to do ?
(2:57 PM) thomas_Poland: today can be low and straight up till christmas
tomthetrader: There are just too many bears to go down
tomthetrader: Again the KEY TECHNICAL REVERSAL DAY is something we have not had in this complex bottoming process
(2:59 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: com on baby...lets go again
tomthetrader: maybe a bit of respect should be given to the US economy and the workers we have left ...41st worst employment stats ?
(2:59 PM) thomas_Poland: we are a little overbought Tom
tomthetrader: we will be back to overbought soon
(3:00 PM) thomas_Poland: short term
tomthetrader: we think alike ?
(3:00 PM) thomas_Poland: yes
(3:00 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: we have a flag and pole forming on the esz8 2 min chart
(3:00 PM) thomas_Poland: you teached me ?
tomthetrader: can't spoil this day
tomthetrader: very technically important
tomthetrader: if it holds
tomthetrader: need 300-350 up YM
(3:01 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: out of es 4 pts
tomthetrader: '880
tomthetrader: another 13 -15 ES
(3:01 PM) thomas_Poland: today at 11:00 retail crowd was short YM
(3:01 PM) thomas_Poland: and at 2:55 also
(3:01 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: it did look miserable when I turned on Bloomberg TV and CNBC at 1030am PT
(3:01 PM) thomas_Poland: let's see if this time public is right
(3:01 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: dire the world is falling
(3:01 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: armegeddon
tomthetrader: 866 spx
(3:02 PM) thomas_Poland: at 11:00 public were eaten
(3:02 PM) thomas_Poland:
(3:02 PM) thomas_Poland: 2:55 also?
(3:04 PM) TraderTim: THOMAS 200sma can it make it?
(3:04 PM) Fulkdaddy: short NQ at 1156
(3:04 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: ES just hitting 50% retracement on this downleg (dec)
(3:04 PM) pupster1: sold FAS at 25.07
(3:04 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: now at 20sma

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