Chat from 2:15pm on ...It ened up right were the .25 and .25 would get us to the penny !!!
Just read the real time transcript from today's Fed meeting and you will see why TOM is the best and most honest ...open on the WEB !!!!
iservasia@gmail.com says:
whoa what a big selloff
Tom says:
but remember ...you have to hold here
Tom says:
140 points
Tom says:
in 30 seconds
Marvin says:
Back up ?????
Tom says:
1st move has stuck
Tom says:
let's see if we get a comeback
Mike says:
What's the news?
Marvin says:
Bought 1 YM
Tom says:
balance of risk gone
Tom says:
long Marv ??
Marvin says:
In @ 681
Tom says:
good
iservasia@gmail.com says:
I'm probably starting to "load" the boat here, what do you think Tom?
Tom says:
we printed 1501 ???
Tom says:
52.00 QQQQ
iservasia@gmail.com says:
1505
Marvin says:
ES 1506
iservasia@gmail.com says:
cash
Mike says:
Don't think so. 1504 on my watch
Tom says:
I am staying out for now
Tom says:
we got the spike down the comeback rally ....and now we will see what sticks
Tom says:
WIMPY WIMPY WIMPY
Tom says:
long term short
Marvin says:
i was too quick
Tom says:
short em
Tom says:
short em
Mike says:
1500
Tom says:
IWM puts
Tom says:
no positions here
Tom says:
not yet
Mike says:
1501
Tom says:
we are in BUY range but lets see
Mike says:
Is the bears' objective to get us bellow 1500?
Tom says:
we have just given uop yesterdays gains
Tom says:
we are flat for the week
Marvin says:
ES 1500
Tom says:
yep ..we can't go LONG as the news is too poor
Mike says:
Banks getting hammered.
Tom says:
we cannot buy LONG
Mike says:
What is the word?
Tom says:
Repeat do not buy long
Tom says:
we have to short or neutral do not buy long
Tom says:
poor
Tom says:
no good
Tom says:
do not buy
iservasia@gmail.com says:
anyway, SPX just broke 1500 line
Tom says:
do not buy let this sit for a bit
Tom says:
Horrible news as i described earlier
Tom says:
.25 and .25 gives us down 300
Tom says:
it is the worst news and the worst guidance
Tom says:
the FED just sold the US economy down the tubes
iservasia@gmail.com says:
what's the guidance tom?
Tom says:
we are stopped out of several stocks
Marvin says:
obviously
Tom says:
Guidance is even bias ..no bias towards easing
Tom says:
so we are in a bit of a stagflation situation
Tom says:
we got the spike down the come back rally and now the real stick of down
Tom says:
terrible wording
Mike says:
Well, Tim Knight I think made quite a bit of money today.
gregg says:
crawling back??/
Marvin says:
barely
Tom says:
we may be in for a really bad week ..they know the inflation #'s and China broke all their inflation #'s
Marvin says:
true
Tom says:
as long as 1490 holds spx ...we could make a comeback but it will take a few days
iservasia@gmail.com says:
AAPL snapped back quite nicely, not sure if it'll stick...
Tom says:
It really was the worst possible rport
Marvin says:
Time for the bargain hunters to step in
Tom says:
I am surprised we are not down further
Tom says:
very interesting ..short term
Tom says:
we should sell off 300 points or so
Tom says:
as if they didn't ease at all with a .25 on each ..the discount rate needed 1.00 .50 min .75
Tom says:
When I talked about the "hollow " buying in CSCO ..that was a tell
Tom says:
look at the daily on csco
Marvin says:
Vix anyone ?
Tom says:
skyrocketing
Tom says:
105 up
Marvin says:
figures
Tom says:
10%
Tom says:
VIX calls were the play
Marvin says:
apparently
Marvin says:
ES 1495 low
Tom says:
CFC down 10%
Tom says:
everyone that needs it most is getting shelled
Tom says:
the FED is telling us that a recession and inflation are on the horizon ...
Tom says:
Bears should be happy
Tom says:
we are getting stopped out of our winning stocks
Frank says:
ttt...ameritarde locked up and i couldn't trade
Frank says:
still have my Q's and appl puts. stand pat?
Tom says:
I believe that it is still a fast market
gregg says:
i saw that also
Tom says:
I would
Marvin says:
looking for a snap back ?
Tom says:
put a stop in Frank and let the market drop 300 +
Frank says:
thx
Tom says:
poor conditions and poor report
Tom says:
poor guidance ..they must know that the INFLATION #'s are bad too
Tom says:
on TH FRIDAY
iservasia@gmail.com says:
Tom, you still think that we'll end the year above 14K?
Thomas says:
Oh my god. What happend Tom?
Thomas says:
I wasn't ther
Thomas says:
there
Tom says:
we will be lucky to stay above a 300 point drop
Thomas says:
0.25 cut both? Am I right?
Tom says:
yes
Thomas says:
Ben is brave :)
Rich says:
Tom, anty trading ideas?? or just stay put
Tom says:
not near enough but they got more for later ...if the inflation #'s are OKM
Thomas says:
Did you take short Tom?
Tom says:
NO 0 positions
Thomas says:
Still long model? Or out
Tom says:
none we got stopped out of 4 stocks
Rich says:
so you want short any rally??
Thomas says:
They really want all those people to lose home :)
Tom says:
we are about 50% long and 50% cash
Tom says:
yep
Tom says:
no relief ....but we have to think
Thomas says:
Very emotional reaction
Tom says:
did they do this because they think the economy is stronger or because inflation is higher
Thomas says:
What did they say?
Tom says:
I think I hit it on the nose when I described all possible reactions ???
Rich says:
ER2 biggest loser, percentage wise
Tom says:
yes and well it should
Tom says:
Interest rate sensitives are getting killed
Thomas says:
Is dollar ok?
Thomas says:
Tom, maybe they more think about the dollar?
Tom says:
Nah ?????
Thomas says:
Why not?
Tom says:
Why now after 5 years ???
Thomas says:
OK, they still can print it :)
Tom says:
it has just bottommed
Tom says:
300 pints here we go
Tom says:
points ...need some pints
Mike says:
300 down?
Mike says:
Or Up?
Thomas says:
What your indicators say Tom?
Mike says:
Looks like they want to keep dropping.
Marvin says:
Maximum amount of pain !!
Thomas says:
If you look closely we had to have wave 4 of this run. After it ends we will have wave 5 Tom
Thomas says:
Just Elliot stuff :)
Tom says:
only one key indicator touched BUY and it was there right before the numbers but it was right on the 65% the most minimal of buy signals
Tom says:
I am just short term disappointed in the FED and US government ...this assures us a recession and now we have to look at a Inflation problem
Thomas says:
Tom remember what I said about 5 days ago?
Tom says:
no
Thomas says:
I said we will go up until FED and down week or more
Tom says:
I don't remember what I said 5 minutes ago
Thomas says:
:)
Tom says:
NUE ..I guess that says it all
Thomas says:
You remember only one surname ... Alzheimer :)
Tom says:
the steel run is over
Tom says:
global boom over ???
Thomas says:
what steel run?
Marvin says:
Looks like 1490 might hold
Tom says:
the one that has been 20x all steel stocks the past 5 years
Tom says:
Marv ....you got a Hold there and maybe a rally if we hold
Thomas says:
Marvin now up and dow again
Thomas says:
down
Marvin says:
50 % retrace ?
Tom says:
1490 is critical for the Bulls into next week
Thomas says:
Tom wave 4 :)
Tom says:
if we can't buy 1490 we are in trouble
Tom says:
I am just kinda embarrassed by this FED ..unless they know the Ecomomy is stronger and inflation lower
Tom says:
This gives back all the bank gains
Tom says:
banks get killed ..still inverted yield curve
iservasia@gmail.com says:
Tom, probably they feel that the economy is resilient and can weather the storm by its self
Thomas says:
Well like you said before. Bush wants to save oil not banks :)
Tom says:
Right ..they have more dat than me !!!
Tom says:
FNM FRE CFC all the folks who need the $$ the most get killed
Tom says:
embarrassing
Tom says:
gives the foreclosure rate a boost
Tom says:
now we will have a real tradable bottom ???
Thomas says:
Bernanke wants to buy some cheap houses in Florida ;)
Tom says:
A/D line is kinda crashed
Tom says:
yep
Tom says:
Plenty of them
Tom says:
OIL up to 90 back to oil
Thomas says:
His famili just started real estate businnes I guess :)
Thomas says:
And what about gold?
Marvin says:
LOL
Tom says:
Nas down 36 tells you why we should have stayed short the market
Tom says:
1495 spx
Thomas says:
better to be sorry to be out than to be sorry to be in :)
Tom says:
all we have done is just given back all of yesterday ???
Marvin says:
I bet we rally back into the close
gregg says:
cramer the bull has had a gut of the fed,throwing his hands in the air ,on the tube just now.
Tom says:
Buy the rumor ..sell the news
Marvin says:
+60 YM from the low
Tom says:
after a huge drop of 220
Tom says:
ge lowers guidance ..another one bites the dust
Tom says:
40% long
Tom says:
GE gets killed on this
Mike says:
T still flying high
Marvin says:
What has the dollar done since the announcement ? Anyone ?
Tom says:
I just know now that we are in a BEAR Market
Tom says:
anyone who has long term holdings best reconsider ...
Tom says:
GE cutting a eps that bad means real trouble
Tom says:
we probably went into a Bear in June
Marvin says:
just raised the dividend
Tom says:
so let's play it like that
Craig says:
Tom, do you think the less than big drop in Fed funds rate going to hurt us?
Tom says:
Yes ...big time
Tom says:
I month t-bill scared 2.87
Tom says:
Only good thing is there are more cuts to come ..now we got several months of rate cuts
Marvin says:
right
Tom says:
instead of 2 .50 ..they go with 4 .25 over 6 months
Tom says:
I will be dead by then in a BEAR market
Tom says:
36.73 GE
Craig says:
If they would have done something awhile back before now.
Tom says:
yes
Craig says:
Don't tell me we are to follow Tim?
Tom says:
they needed and the world need the US to get a head of the economy instead of trailing buy 5=6 motnhs
Tom says:
There is a parade going on in Palo Alto Ca now
Tom says:
all the stocks that need it are DEAD
Craig says:
It looks like it.
Tom says:
all housing and mortgage
Tom says:
DEAD
Tom says:
It is unamerican
Tom says:
where is Dr. greenspan
Marvin says:
8-)
Tom says:
I am so embarrassed
Craig says:
This housing thing was a problem over a year ago, and still they (banks) kept lending. And now, we get to pay for their foolishness.
Tom says:
this is as poor of a FED decision we have ever seen
Tom says:
Remeber right before the report ..I said how "hollow" the buying in CSCO was ...look at CSCO
Tom says:
1490 has got to hold
Tom says:
one thing Bullish is the outllok for rates and the $$$$$ went up
Tom says:
OIL closed regular session over 90 bucks
Craig says:
Maybe this is good for FXI people.FXI at 1:59 PM 12/11/2007: Price crossed above 20 day SMA (181.1785). Confirmed by volume.
Tom says:
anyone got the e-mail where I listed the possible outcomes ???
Craig says:
I'll look.
Tom says:
China
Tom says:
Buy China or PBR
Tom says:
Discount rate had to go .50% down
Tom says:
I think I said 25 and 25 would get us down 300 points
Tom says:
not that it makes any difference
Jerry has left the conversation.
Tom says:
but all I know is that we have a hold in here and it should be worse ..we are getting very good BUY signals now ...so the market will be ready to rally if we get good inflation news or if we just lie about inflation
Tom says:
but with oil and gas hitting all time highs during this reporting period
Craig says:
Doesn't the word gov't mean "lie"?
Tom says:
many people think we may get whacked hard like 20-305 next week on inflation
Tom says:
Close ..too close
Tom says:
%
Tom says:
psychologically they killed the banks and mortgages and homebuilders
Tom says:
they just killed Christmas
Tom says:
for a lot of people
Marvin says:
Just cheapened stocks for the strong hands to buy
Craig says:
Now I am going to have to take my childs "big wheel" back to the store. How do I explain that to her?
Tom says:
and maybe it is too dramatic but if the stock market falls into a bear market here ....I would not want to be graduating from college cause JOBS ARE GOING TO DRY UP
Craig says:
Bah! Humbug!
Marvin says:
Theres still time before Christmas
Tom says:
well home is where the heart is ..the best present I ever got was a handmade painting by my 2 year old ..$0 cost
Marvin says:
;)
Tom says:
maybe that is what we have gotten to be ..expecting material things
Tom says:
and the big daddy fed is tough love on us specualators
Craig says:
Bye Bye market
Craig says:
Tom, tell me this is a buying opportunity?
Tom says:
Hello Tim Knight !!!! ..but they are not even ..even yet ..foranother 50 ES
Tom says:
I can't ...but I can tell you that historically the price always comes back ???
Tom says:
we will see if the inflation numbers and some pumping can get the market up through Spring
Tom says:
I think I said 300 points on .25 .25
Tom says:
and here we are
Tom says:
we should have stayed short but I was convinced with a FED had the US in mind
Tom says:
they will be lambasted forever forthis
Marvin says:
not trusted
Tom says:
can't be ...credibility is 100% lost
Biegs says:
tom, doesn't he have to balance an historically weak dollar?
Tom says:
well we have been here before we are just 33% retrace of the rally ???
Tom says:
Dollar has bottomed and been going up ..and yes it is up today ....but exports will get hurt and profits will get killed and the stock market with it
Tom says:
heck with the dollar ..does China care about the Yuan ??
Tom says:
they are kicking our ass
Tom says:
if they cared about it they would have risen rates 10% same as there 11% inflation rate
Tom says:
we are embarrassing and the world loves it
Tom says:
Here's the kind of thing I'm talking about...there have been 14 occasions since 1996 when the S&P 500 closed below the low of the past two days on the day of an FOMC announcement. Three days later, the S&P was positive 10 times by an average of +0.2% and five days later 11 times by an average of +1.1%.
Tom says:
If the S&P lost more than 1.0% on one of these days, then the rebound tended to be stronger. The S&P was positive three days later five out of seven times by an average of +0.5% and five days later six times by an average of +1.8%. The sole loss was immediately after 9/11.
Tom says:
The assumption this afternoon is surely going to be that if the market falls so much on a day the Fed cut rates, then that has to be a bad sign going forward. I see the logic there, but logic usually doesn't have much place in the stock market.
Marvin says:
never has and never will
Tom says:
There does seem to be a tendency for stocks to exhibit more very short-term weakness after weak reactions like this, and trying to buy right away wasn't often the best decision. I'm going to keep holding off here and see how we close - if we get a weak close and a gap down open tomorrow, then that's the kind of situation where I'd be more inclined to be a buyer.
Tom says:
so I am going to try to biuy long on a world wide drop tomorrow and go back in in waves
Marvin says:
I really think were going right back up by the end of the week
Tom says:
I think I have to get the facts and quit with the emotions
Tom says:
the facts are we were short term overbought we got short just 48 hours ago and rightfully so ..if I would have held my position ..we would be dancing inthe streets ...i did not out of fear the FED would crater ..they din't but they also gave what was expected and that leaves plenty of ammo down the road
Marvin says:
Lot of positive action and volume in YM
Tom says:
So these precedents don't paint a particularly bleak picture. Given all the intermediate-term positives we'd gone over, the fact that we're already seeing some minor oversold readings, and the potential for buying support around this 1480 - 1500 zone in the S&P, I don't think today's move is all that ominous.
Marvin says:
Thats what I was saying Tom,,,Just a shakeout of weak longs
Tom says:
I am putting my Happy hat on ...we were not long too much ...we could have been balls out LONG into options and futures but we got out
Marvin says:
I think this is an opportunity
Tom says:
and we were safe in 50-50 cas stocks
Tom says:
this can't be all bad
Marvin says:
If not today the tomorrow
Tom says:
right ?
Marvin says:
Thats my thoughts
Frank says:
ttt...all the solars got hit pretty good but LDK held. it is up. have you looked at this one?
Tom says:
Yes ..we held it and TSL once
Tom says:
just have to watch the charts and hope
Tom says:
Solar is infancy
Marvin says:
I take this as bottoming action
Tom says:
good stock ESLR still my fav
Tom says:
WFR and CY also
Frank says:
i know, i thought this would be a good time to get some of these cheaper for my IRA. i held eslr, still have a small profit
gregg says:
here's your 300 tt
TTT
352-870-4626
tomandprisha@msn.com
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