Thursday, October 16, 2008


(9:17 AM) Alert: Hi , Welcome to TTT

(9:17 AM) thomas_Poland: Gary .. standard Fibs and pivot , S1, s2 ??
(9:17 AM) PhotosbyDill: y
(9:17 AM) thomas_Poland: y
(9:17 AM) syzygy111: y
(9:17 AM) bogdan07: y
(9:17 AM) BB1947: y
(9:18 AM) ajayvee: y
(9:18 AM) csu30: y
(9:18 AM) breadman8401: y
(9:18 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: no sound
(9:18 AM) jbljudy: No Audio for me
(9:18 AM) syzygy111: y
(9:18 AM) TraderTim: y
tomthetrader: please push to talk or relogin
(9:19 AM) gerry204: y
(9:19 AM) brownmj21: y
(9:19 AM) jbljudy: Did both, no sound.
(9:19 AM) les13436: y
(9:19 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: got sound now
(9:19 AM) TraderTim: exit and come back in
(9:19 AM) syzygy111: Mute?
(9:19 AM) TraderTim: that is what I did
(9:19 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: exit and re log in worked for me
tomthetrader: Judy may have to reboot
(9:20 AM) Fulkdaddy: Mom, close Paltalk and come back in
(9:20 AM) syzygy111: I got caught with sound too low yesterday
(9:20 AM) jbljudy: Second time I did that.
tomthetrader: no hurry ..we have plenty of is in
(9:21 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: no sound again
(9:21 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: got sound now
(9:21 AM) bogdan07: y
(9:21 AM) les13436: y
(9:21 AM) csu30: y
(9:22 AM) PhotosbyDill: Thomas, Yes the Fibs are ratios shown. S1 is the calculated support from the floor pivot point. If you see R1 it is the next resistance point. All calculated from the Daily hi, lo and close
(9:22 AM) PhotosbyDill: Fibs extensions are very good for money management Thomas. I hope this helps
(9:26 AM) Alert: ====SECURITY BULLETIN!=======
Using utilites from third parties such as button holders, remote typers, etc ... are at risk of having their passwords stolen!
Many of these utilities contain trojans that report your nickname and password to the program's creator. We encourage everyone to change their password reguarly, and to uncheck the save password checkbox on the login screen.
If you do this, you will have to enter your password every time you log in, but it is a small price to pay to keep your account and password protected.
(9:26 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: What about XLKAT ?
(9:30 AM) thomas_Poland: no
(9:30 AM) thomas_Poland:
(9:30 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: tomek could you list everything
(9:30 AM) thomas_Poland: no
(9:30 AM) thomas_Poland:
(9:31 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: what about a bear call spread on the VIX playing it will drop from 70 by Tues expiration
(9:32 AM) csu30: Is audio on?
tomthetrader: yes
tomthetrader: now over
(9:33 AM) csu30: thanks, got cut off when you were speaking. More PalTalk west coast server problems I suppose
(9:35 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: y
(9:35 AM) TraderTim: y
(9:35 AM) berniectx: y
(9:35 AM) pupster1: y
(9:35 AM) ajayvee: y
(9:35 AM) syzygy111: y
(9:35 AM) brownmj21: y
(9:35 AM) bogdan07: y
(9:35 AM) PhotosbyDill: y
(9:35 AM) breadman8401: y
(9:36 AM) thomas_Poland: 1 NQ long at 1725; 1 NQ long at 1715; 30 XLKAT at 1.85; 100 XLKAT at 1.70; 100 XLKAT at 1.50; 142 XLKAT at 1.45;
(9:37 AM) thomas_Poland: 100 XLKAT at 1.30; 200 XLKAT at 1.25; 100 XLKAT at 1.10; 30 XLKAt at 1.50; 200 XLKAT at 0.90;
(9:38 AM) thomas_Poland: 2000 QQQX at 12.11; 10 ES long at 1146.50; 2 ES long at 1130.00; 3 ES long at 978 (ES level, the rest is cash level)
(9:38 AM) thomas_Poland: 2 ES long at 967.50; 2 ES long at 920.50;
(9:39 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: Is anyone cost averaging down some more on XLKAT now that they are at 20c-35c
(9:39 AM) thomas_Poland: 50 INTCL at 1.50; 50 NOKAG at 2.15; 30 NLVJF at 1.60; 12 OXBKH at 35.00; 50 GDQJH at 1.45; 15 AXVJI at 18.00;
(9:39 AM) thomas_Poland: Tom please confirm after reading carefully
(9:40 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: thx Tomek
(9:40 AM) thomas_Poland: I drink all the time
(9:42 AM) thomas_Poland: I am trading with my daughter on my knees We are alone home waiting for my wife
(9:42 AM) thomas_Poland: Can make few mistakes
(9:42 AM) thomas_Poland:
(9:42 AM) thomas_Poland: She already knows how to say 'chart"
(9:43 AM) pupster1: UPDATE Mc Hugh > I don't mean to scare you tonight, however there is a set-up scenario where we could see a panic plunge, another crash leg, a market meltdown that is simply terrifying over the next three to four days.
(9:43 AM) pupster1: Last night we presented three scenarios calling for a plunge of at least several hundred points that was imminent. We wrote, "Any way we cut it, we should see one more sharp decline, either several hundred points, or several thousand, starting between now and late next week." The Industrials went out and plunged 733.08 points Wednesday.
(9:43 AM) pupster1: The first scenario is where the coming phi mate turn date is a top, with a 2,000 point plunge starting next week. If that scenario is occurring, it means wave 4 up is forming a symmetrical triangle, which requires a series of volatile reversing waves,
(9:44 AM) pupster1: like we have seen so far this week, the first leg up of the triangle the rally Monday and Tuesday; the second of five waves, Wednesday's sharply sell-off. This scenario requires three more reversing "sideways" waves occurring over the next several days,
(9:44 AM) pupster1: then wave 5 down starts next week at our phi mate turn date, scheduled for October 23rd +/-. That decline could be 2,000 points +/-.
(9:45 AM) pupster1: Two other scenarios: One is a catastrophic crash leg that could take the Industrials down to the 6,000's +-, and the That would be wave 5 down, of e down of a-down.
tomthetrader: If we're going to fail, then it should most likely happen within the first hour; if we can go on to make higher intraday highs after that, then I will be anticipating even more gains during the day.
(9:45 AM) pupster1: It suggests wave 4 topped Tuesday, October 14th. It would bottom next week around our coming phi mate turn date. The carnage would be devastating. There are no signs of a final bottom here, precious few buy signals from our many key indicators, so this scenario is frighteningly possible.
(9:45 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: pupster what elliott wave software do you use? And pls explain a phi mate turn date
(9:45 AM) pupster1: The third scenario, is that wave a-down bottomed Friday, October 10th, and that Wednesday's plunge is a nearly completed correction of the first leg up of Minor degree waved b-up which started intraday Friday, continued Monday and finished Tuesday morning.
tomthetrader: If we're going to fail, then it should most likely happen within the first hour; if we can go on to make higher intraday highs after that, then I will be anticipating even more gains during the day.
(9:46 AM) pupster1: That scenario requires an immediate and powerful rally. A break below 7,882.51 eliminates this most optimistic scenario.
(9:46 AM) pupster1: NYSE volume fell to 83 percent of its 10 day average. Downside volume was 98 percent, with declining issues at 90 percent, with downside points at 99 percent, another 90 percent panic selling day.
(9:46 AM) pupster1: S&P 500 Demand Power fell 12 points to 412, while Supply Pressure rose 28 points to 583, telling us once again we saw panic selling, with Plunge Protection Team buying with both hands to support prices.
(9:46 AM) pupster1: The Plunge Protection Team Risk Indicator rose to positive + 11.99 Wednesday, remaining on a "sell" signal from October 1st, which is reason for caution here.
(9:46 AM) pupster1: The NASDAQ 100 plunged 120.36 points Wednesday, closing at 1,244.23. The Russell 2000 plunged 52.54 points Wednesday, closing at 502.11. The RUT Purchasing Power Indicator fell to positive + 0.21 from + 16.33, triggering a "sell" signal October 15th.
(9:46 AM) pupster1: The HUI Amex Gold Bugs Index fell 26.85 points Wednesday, closing at 231.32. December Gold fell to 844.0. Silver fell to 10.15, while Oil fell to 73.10. The Dollar rose to 82.09. Bonds fell half a point to 114^08. The VIX exploded 14.12 higher to 69.25, as fear remains high.
(9:46 AM) thomas_Poland: internals good
tomthetrader: Yes ...
(9:47 AM) thomas_Poland: a/d riing
(9:47 AM) thomas_Poland: rising
tomthetrader: McHugh Short Malone Long
tomthetrader: Been here a few hundred times before !
(9:48 AM) thomas_Poland: let's see 974
(9:50 AM) thomas_Poland: P/C rising
tomthetrader: everyone get audio ?
(9:50 AM) ajayvee: y
(9:50 AM) berniectx: y
(9:50 AM) brownmj21: y
tomthetrader: omthetrader: If we're going to fail, then it should most likely happen within the first hour; if we can go on to make higher intraday highs after that, then I will be anticipating even more gains during the day.
(9:51 AM) thomas_Poland: lets see if the sell program appears
(9:51 AM) thomas_Poland: in the next 5 mins
tomthetrader: Mc Hugh > I don't mean to scare you tonight, however there is a set-up scenario where we could see a panic plunge, another crash leg, a market meltdown that is simply terrifying over the next three to four days.
(9:52 AM) thomas_Poland: pupster just posted it Tom
tomthetrader: I just want to see it makes me feel better
(9:53 AM) pupster1: hope he's DEAD WRONG........would make alot of people happy
(9:54 AM) brownmj21: Tom, i might have missed this discussion yesterday, but if the gov't is going to buy $250billion in stocks, shouldn't that spur on a bull market--at least short term?
(9:54 AM) thomas_Poland: sell program is beeing bought Tom?
(9:55 AM) thomas_Poland: or not unfortunattelly
(9:55 AM) thomas_Poland: sell program
(9:55 AM) thomas_Poland:
(9:55 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: Tom, I just emailed you my Elliott Wave charts....all 3 are showing the start of Wave 4 up
(9:55 AM) thomas_Poland: fork
(9:56 AM) thomas_Poland: I hate selling programs when i want to go up
(9:56 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: I would think that for the 9 banks that Treasury invested in, would have a firm support floor in place for those 9
(9:58 AM) Fulkdaddy: my worry is the indicators have not been working under forced selling situations
(9:59 AM) Fulkdaddy: Today: Last week, Tontine Partners, a $10 billion global macro hedge fund, told its investors that it expected to show a loss of 65% for 2008. Fund is under complete liquidation
(10:01 AM) thomas_Poland: Tom we have sell program after sell program now
(10:01 AM) Fulkdaddy: Kass: Hedge funds are now the dominant investor
(10:01 AM) thomas_Poland: but someone is buying
(10:01 AM) ajayvee: how do you tell a sell program has triggered?
(10:02 AM) thomas_Poland: ajay .. when I tell you I have to kill you
(10:02 AM) ajayvee: lol
(10:05 AM) thomas_Poland: Nick?
(10:06 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: yes tomek
(10:06 AM) thomas_Poland: This Elliot wave chart .. I cannot agree
(10:06 AM) thomas_Poland: no Tomek just Thomas
(10:06 AM) thomas_Poland: let me feel that I am from the West
(10:06 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: Why do you disagree?
(10:07 AM) thomas_Poland: and another sell program ajay
(10:07 AM) thomas_Poland: proportions of waves are wrong in my opinion
(10:07 AM) thomas_Poland: 2nd wave to short in comparison to wave 3 waves
(10:09 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: Elliott Waves are always subject to differing interpretations. This software has tried to condense the very complicated Elliott theory down to very likely scenarios.
(10:09 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: The company ProfitSource has done thousands of back studies to optimize their Elliott charting
(10:09 AM) thomas_Poland: yep but Elliot had rules
(10:09 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: The other thing is they only analzye the past 300 bar
(10:10 AM) thomas_Poland: ajay sell program
(10:10 AM) thomas_Poland: or the same still
(10:10 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: I admit I don't know all the rules about Elliott....which is why I use the software!
(10:10 AM) thomas_Poland: the whole move down was done by sell programs .. in my opinion
(10:11 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: Anyhow, like any other indicator you have to take it with a grain of salt and give a smell check with your other indicators
(10:11 AM) thomas_Poland: some trade just elliot
(10:11 AM) thomas_Poland: but like you said ..
(10:12 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: I've taken the Optionetics courses and Optionetics main tool is the ProfitSource Elliott software. They used to use E-Signal Advanced Get, but switched to ProfitSource because supposedly it's better
(10:13 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: Tom, did you forward all 3 charts around? Because I only received the NDX
tomthetrader: Yes getting them all around
(10:22 AM) thomas_Poland: get ready for another sell program
(10:23 AM) syzygy111: Why doesn't the SEC reinstitute the uptick rule???
(10:24 AM) Fulkdaddy: Incompetent?
(10:25 AM) Fulkdaddy: On the good news lovely wife is due with #3 today!
(10:25 AM) thefish102: congrats
(10:25 AM) syzygy111: best of everything and good luck Dave
(10:25 AM) Fulkdaddy: Thanks...we are pumped!
(10:25 AM) berniectx: you are good man Dave
(10:26 AM) rekon8_TTT: Dave good luck and 16th is a good day for bday mine too.
tomthetrader: yeah happy rekon
(10:27 AM) JR Roden: Dave - best of luck with the birth and enjoy those baby days / years.
(10:27 AM) Fulkdaddy: Our 2nd, Taylor turned 2 on wife was very worried they would share a b-day...
(10:27 AM) Fulkdaddy: so she stood on her head all day
tomthetrader: 72.80 oil
(10:29 AM) thomas_Poland: the selling is very strong
(10:30 AM) bogdan07: never seen so fast trading in SPY ,170 000 000 so far
(10:31 AM) TraderTim: Toddo said something interesting: They SHORT lower and BUY higher. So far that is exactly how it keeps playing out.
(10:32 AM) thomas_Poland: If we cannot rise now we will be down more
(10:32 AM) thomas_Poland: much more
(10:32 AM) TraderTim: Tom, getting near the bottom of the 880/1000 box.
(10:33 AM) Fulkdaddy: Shoot...making new lows
(10:36 AM) thomas_Poland: that is just normal selling
tomthetrader: could it be another Trend day lower
tomthetrader: certainlly would be time to short
tomthetrader: we sold our options plays this a.m.
(10:42 AM) thomas_Poland: it must be a new world .. or people are getting dumber ??
tomthetrader: just like 99 except opposite ..people got rich being DUMB as academia got stuck
(10:46 AM) ctmhou: What is to curl up?
(10:46 AM) ctmhou: Which chart?
(10:47 AM) ctmhou: OK, Thanks
tomthetrader: simple TICK TRIN VIX etc
tomthetrader: Oscillators / p/c ratios
tomthetrader: and a bunch more "stuff
tomthetrader: 888.00 was last successful Buy long and we are there now
tomthetrader: 880.00 is the bottom pivot in my book
(10:50 AM) ctmhou: My indicators say buy on ES.
tomthetrader: I am good with that Craig ..but like Dave says indicators matter now in this free fall
(10:53 AM) TraderTim: I think a TIGHT stop solves that problem. You play the indicators and abort if they FAIL.
tomthetrader: yes ..that is exactly what I am doing ...again with a bullish bias
tomthetrader: I am just too bullish ...I want to make everyone aware of that
(10:54 AM) TraderTim: yep, I finally figured that out about you Tom You are generally optimistic on things.
tomthetrader: I use so much sentiment and historical precedence in my research and programs that it along with mean reversion is failing to make gains more than in 2 hour stretches
(10:55 AM) berniectx: Think there is something wrong with my genetic makeup wanted to short yesterday first hour and today...have trouble committing to short and has cost me
tomthetrader: I can short ....and do but not nearly as much as this latest bear leg has warranted
(10:56 AM) TraderTim: bernietctx: you are not alone. For some reason I have trouble pulling the SHORT trigger but no problem going long the mean reversions that are failing here. Interesting psychology.
tomthetrader: we could / should short every single rally and thought of rally
(10:56 AM) TraderTim: Once the TTT group gets bearish and starts really shorting, the TURN could be at hand
tomthetrader: there is just a black hole of 0 hope out there
(10:56 AM) thomas_Poland: sell program appears even after 10 mins rally
(10:56 AM) thomas_Poland: just insane
tomthetrader: yep
tomthetrader: relentless
(10:57 AM) TraderTim: Short any RIPS Cover any DIPS
tomthetrader: have to to make $$$$$$
(10:57 AM) TraderTim: But executing that is so hard
(10:57 AM) TraderTim: for me
(10:57 AM) TraderTim: I don't like to fight the 14/14 Tom BUY BUY BUY and other confirming indicators suggesting excessive oversold . . .
(10:58 AM) TraderTim: it goes against the whole system of odds we trained on
(10:58 AM) TraderTim: but those systems (mean reversion) are NOT working
tomthetrader: TTT HAS TO LEAVE FOR A DR appointment recheck with my son ....will return for 1:56pm update ...please keep chat alive ...I may check in via mobile
(10:58 AM) Fulkdaddy: I agree Tim..but as Toddo said, indicators do not work in a crash
tomthetrader: OIL 72.33
tomthetrader: -280
tomthetrader: looks like another TREND day lower
tomthetrader: might as well ride it
tomthetrader: Philly Fed joins Empire ..worst ever
tomthetrader: Market now pricing in depression
tomthetrader: got below 72.00 on oil
tomthetrader: 880.00 broken
(11:00 AM) TraderTim: crude stocks up on report
(11:00 AM) TraderTim: oil -4.5%
(11:01 AM) TraderTim: CNBC expert saying we go to $67 range
(11:01 AM) TraderTim: 880 bottom of box was broke so based on Tom strategy you STOP and REVERSE (short at 880). Wow
(11:04 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: Can someone explain to me why the 880 level was critical support? Is that the old low?
(11:05 AM) thefish102: 880 was the buy point last friday
(11:07 AM) nangmuapr: hi
tomthetrader: bye
(11:08 AM) nangmuapr: please to meet you
(11:08 AM) tomthetrader: tomthetrader has bounced nangmuapr from the chat room
(11:08 AM) ctmhou: That was quick.........
(11:08 AM) thomas_Poland: I was to late
(11:09 AM) ajayvee: VIX 80.12
(11:09 AM) Fulkdaddy: Tom, we are making lower lows today...should we go short?
tomthetrader: Yes
(11:09 AM) Fulkdaddy: On a bounce?
tomthetrader: oil 69.00
tomthetrader: as we said early this morning 10:30 am this looks to be a trend day and it usually ends on the lows so everyone should short the market via any source
tomthetrader: 80 VIX
(11:11 AM) ctmhou: And gas is still 2.90 a gallon here in Houston. Go figure...............
(11:11 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: tom what are a couple of good short 2x etfs ?
(11:12 AM) ajayvee: we'll probably see it again tomorrow
(11:12 AM) csu30: Nick, I'm in MZZ which seems to be doing well for my hedge
(11:13 AM) thomas_Poland: and today sell program after sell program
tomthetrader: MZZ is a great one to hedge I bought yesterday
(11:13 AM) thomas_Poland: like now .. last 15 mins
tomthetrader: accelerating
(11:13 AM) thomas_Poland: f....g incredible
(11:13 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: so then opening a short right now is probably not smart
(11:14 AM) thefish102: the cry of the market used to be "JBG" for Just buy GOOG, now it is "JGS" for Just Go Short
(11:14 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: The PPT should be coming in
tomthetrader: VIX 80.00
tomthetrader: predicta a 7000 point dow move in coming weeks
tomthetrader: we could go to 0
(11:19 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: The S&P has already retraced almost 100% of the entire 2002-2007 bull run
(11:31 AM) Frank_TTT: YHOO going straight up last few minutes
tomthetrader: Buyouts need to start Frank /
(11:32 AM) Frank_TTT: i would think so...that may be one of the bright sides that gets market going
tomthetrader: yes
tomthetrader: every time the NYSE TICK has managed to poke above the zero line, another wave of selling pressure has emerged and taken us to new lows. Not good...that will obviously need to change in order to have any expectation of a reversal.
tomthetrader: This is an absolutely vicious tape, and I see no reason at the moment to try to step in front of it with aggressive positions. The best bet from the long side would come in on a reversal back above some kind of support zone, such as 900
tomthetrader: 886.00 buying 2 long with stop at 880.00
tomthetrader: NQ is now a BUY again
tomthetrader: for longer term ....if new money wantsto join in now
tomthetrader: QQQQ MNX NDX XLK NQ
tomthetrader: a great opp
tomthetrader: VIX puts 80 puts Nov
(11:42 AM) ajayvee: program buying Thomas?
tomthetrader: anyone price VIX puts ?
(11:44 AM) thomas_Poland: no ajay
(11:44 AM) thomas_Poland: no program buying
(11:44 AM) ajayvee: VQXKP Nov 80 .65 / 1.00
(11:44 AM) thomas_Poland: just some buying
(11:44 AM) ajayvee: calls
tomthetrader: PUTS
tomthetrader: BUYING
(11:44 AM) ajayvee: VQX WP Nove 80 puts 35 / 36
(11:44 AM) thomas_Poland: nothing great ..but hope it will become program buying later
(11:45 AM) thomas_Poland: VIX has to go down .. unless the world is over
(11:45 AM) thomas_Poland: ajay when I see program buying I will tell you
(11:45 AM) thomas_Poland:
(11:46 AM) thomas_Poland: in my opinion
(11:47 AM) thomas_Poland: if we don't get one or we have more buying it will be bullish
tomthetrader: should end up today 400-600 points
(11:47 AM) thomas_Poland: internals are much better
(11:47 AM) thomas_Poland: TRIN is trending down
(11:47 AM) thomas_Poland: P/C ratio going up
(11:47 AM) thomas_Poland: TICK started to give +600 readings
(11:48 AM) thomas_Poland: and A/D line slowly improving
(11:48 AM) thomas_Poland: just the programs
(11:49 AM) thomas_Poland: some activity now
(11:50 AM) thomas_Poland: sell program ?
tomthetrader: Naz is ready to fly NQ 2 long 1232.00
(11:50 AM) thomas_Poland: ok
(11:50 AM) thefish102: Chief Executive Steve Ballmer said Thursday that he thinks a Microsoft acquisition of Yahoo Inc would still "make sense economically" for both companies shareholders
(11:51 AM) thefish102: Ballmer, who made the comments during a keynote interview at the Gartner ITXpo, said he doesn't know what share price Yahoo would have accepted to be acquired after the company turned down Microsoft's unsolicted $33-a-share offer earlier this year.
(11:51 AM) thomas_Poland: you see ajay?
(11:51 AM) thefish102: Ballmer said that even with the recent drop in Yahoo's share price, the company "probably thinks its still worth as least as much today," as when Microsoft made its offer. Yahoo shares rose 9% to $12.87 in early trading
(11:51 AM) thomas_Poland: it is bullish
(11:51 AM) thefish102: explains yhoo's move
(11:51 AM) thomas_Poland: this sell program was bought?
(11:52 AM) ajayvee: what's the difference of a sell program being bought or a buy program?
(11:52 AM) thomas_Poland: I am not an expert
(11:52 AM) thomas_Poland:
(11:53 AM) thomas_Poland: if we have sell program which does not drive the market down someone is buying it
(11:53 AM) thomas_Poland: and buy program is a buy program ..
(11:53 AM) thomas_Poland:
(11:54 AM) ajayvee: that makes it all clearer for me now Thomas....not!
(11:54 AM) thomas_Poland: not ?
(11:56 AM) thomas_Poland: now 200 sma
(11:56 AM) thomas_Poland: we have to go through it
(11:57 AM) thomas_Poland: still another sell program possible
(11:57 AM) thomas_Poland: that is some fight here
(11:58 AM) thomas_Poland: ok here it goes
(12:00 PM) thomas_Poland: todays selling is almost all program selling
(12:06 PM) PhotosbyDill: Fib Extension from Hi= 931.50 to Lo= 881.50 Then retrace 38.20= 900.53 68.80= 912.65 100= 932.26
(12:10 PM) PhotosbyDill: These on 5min chart
(12:14 PM) ctmhou: Tom must have squeezed the ES like a tube of toothpaste.
(12:16 PM) syzygy111: Tom was an hour and a half off calling the market bottom
(12:16 PM) csu30: Finally hit +1,000 ticks
(12:16 PM) ctmhou: Yahoo is the reason for the market move........? I don't believe it.
(12:17 PM) adham_36:
(12:23 PM) PhotosbyDill: Broke through 38.20% from a swing low on 5min chart @885.50 on @SP.c
(12:24 PM) PhotosbyDill: Low of 885.50
(12:24 PM) PhotosbyDill: next stop 61.80% 912.65
(12:25 PM) PhotosbyDill: See if breaks this but be careful
(12:25 PM) PhotosbyDill: correction stays above here
(12:27 PM) PhotosbyDill: The price of 905.44 is the 38.20% Fib retrace down from previous swing during after hours last night on @SP
(12:29 PM) thanhloan7013: jjj
(12:30 PM) PhotosbyDill: And from swing high at 931.50 to Low of 901 the 61.80% of 907.64 we have Fib Zone Pivots here
(12:33 PM) PhotosbyDill: Anyone see how the Fibs are working for ou?
(12:34 PM) PhotosbyDill: you
(12:35 PM) ctmhou: How much validity do you put in Fib numbers?
(12:36 PM) PhotosbyDill: Just try them yourself and make your decision . There are many ways to use them.
(12:36 PM) PhotosbyDill: I use them with other indicators also. Fibs best for money management
(12:37 PM) PhotosbyDill: New swing high Fibs are 38.20 = 904.28 61.80 = 893.50
(12:38 PM) PhotosbyDill: Remember these are all on 5min charts
(12:38 PM) berniectx: I like fibs also use dynamic fibs on 5 min ES chart
(12:39 PM) PhotosbyDill: 50% = 898.89
(12:41 PM) PhotosbyDill: Now testing the 38.20% down to see if forms a new swing up?
(12:43 PM) PhotosbyDill: The current bigger swing down was calculated from hi= 926.55 Lo= 881.19
(12:44 PM) PhotosbyDill: Remember from my post of testing 38.20 would take 5min to see if swing up
(12:44 PM) PhotosbyDill: building that candle now
(12:46 PM) PhotosbyDill: So far so good
(12:47 PM) Frank_TTT: watching DDM and SSO one minute charts. quotes and trades all over the place. weird trading
(12:48 PM) ctmhou: I'll say..............
(12:49 PM) PhotosbyDill: I have to go shoot so Good Trading to all. I hope some of this has give info to digest?
(12:50 PM) PhotosbyDill: Indicators on 25t say up yet but do not like the lack of Money Flow indicator
(12:52 PM) PhotosbyDill: I am trying to give objective data to everyone as I have no current active day trading positions. Hard to read the charts right now so I am standing aside until I see different look. Hope these things help?
(12:56 PM) syzygy111: Thanks, Craig
(12:56 PM) syzygy111: Sorry...Thanks, Gary
(12:58 PM) ctmhou: I'll take any "Good Credit" that you will offer.......
(1:08 PM) syzygy111: Thanks to you also, Craig
(1:21 PM) Frank_TTT: On October 21st, the settlement of Lehman CDSs will be announced and it could involve payments of between $100 billion and $400 billion.
(1:21 PM) Frank_TTT: this is from an article a friend sent me...has anyone done research to validate this claim?
tomthetrader: Yes
tomthetrader: Frank
tomthetrader: that is another big date
(1:23 PM) Frank_TTT: perhaps what we are seeing now then is sellers raising cash for that day...maybe?
tomthetrader: TTT Back
(1:23 PM) csu30: Whiplash, but otherwise OK
(1:23 PM) JR Roden: Any thoughts on the rest of the day?
tomthetrader: could be ....I really think the bottom process is about done
tomthetrader: up 200-400 dow
tomthetrader: We got BUYS on all 14 indicators and the "curl" up
(1:24 PM) JR Roden: wow and it's down 33 now, so that woudl be a big finish.
tomthetrader: and we got our 20 ES
tomthetrader: But I think we can get up to 50ES
tomthetrader: "good" stocks performing well
tomthetrader: bad stocks acting "bad"
tomthetrader: GILD our earnings plays were all dead on
tomthetrader: NOK
tomthetrader: NUE
tomthetrader: 50 NOKAG at 2.15; 30 NLVJF at 1.60; 12 OXBKH at 35.00; 50 GDQJH at 1.45; 15 AXVJI at 18.00;
(1:30 PM) Frank_TTT: ttt...look at DDM trading. it is wild. sales occuring 1 and 2 points outside of bid/ask both up and down. i have never seen this so pronounced. what is going on?
tomthetrader: They are jumping 1% every 20 seconds ??
tomthetrader: it is absolutely nuts
(1:31 PM) youngamerican68_1: i thought it was my datafeed
(1:31 PM) Frank_TTT: and trades aren't anywhere near the bid/ask
tomthetrader: the VIX is on fire and futures are being bought and sold at fast market conditions all day
tomthetrader: very volatile
(1:31 PM) youngamerican68_1: put in a limit for 31
(1:32 PM) Frank_TTT: so...i guess its from volitility being so high
tomthetrader: this is all based off of fair value and buying and selling pressure and STEALING money from investors on the bid ask
tomthetrader: VIX is driving the markets
tomthetrader: 70 billion t-bills ...194 billion in cash management bills so far 74 bil to come
(1:59 PM) ctmhou: A lot of the ES 5 min candles has a 10 point swing..................incredible.
(2:00 PM) ctmhou: How would one play that?
(2:00 PM) Frank_TTT: the down trend day nullified?
(2:00 PM) ctmhou: Hey Frank...where ya been?
(2:01 PM) Frank_TTT: mostly out of the market...can't stand this eratic market
tomthetrader: hang in there Frank ...going much more higher
tomthetrader: Yes the TREND day down should have been broken on the + reversal day
tomthetrader: Market is just tearing people up
tomthetrader: and those that hang in long 2x ETF's are going to be richer in March
tomthetrader: futures buying from 880-920.00 long
tomthetrader: be optimistic
tomthetrader: we have low oil another stimulus package
tomthetrader: another rate cut
tomthetrader: the lowest inflation in years
tomthetrader: best of all environments
(2:13 PM) youngamerican68_1: any chance for the january XLK's to get to even?
tomthetrader: YES
tomthetrader: they will make money for us
(2:14 PM) Fulkdaddy: Wish I had your optimism, Tom
(2:14 PM) youngamerican68_1: we have 3 months.. long time
tomthetrader: VIX at this level ..if it reverts to mean to 34 that will give us a 20% rally and a XLK 25.00
tomthetrader: Not everyone is as happy as me being unrealized 100K down !
tomthetrader: But I have played this for 33 years and feel very good about this ...Like they are talking on TV the TRADING OPPORTUNITY OF A LIFETIME
tomthetrader: Gold collapsing
tomthetrader: P/C ratios acting well
(2:17 PM) Fulkdaddy: Deflation
(2:17 PM) Fulkdaddy: Not good
tomthetrader: It was INFLATION ...then Stagflation now DEFLATION
(2:21 PM) Fulkdaddy: Amazing how fast it changes
tomthetrader: I think we end up on the upside of deflation ..disinflation ...a good term
(2:21 PM) ctmhou: Last night I passed a Valero gas station and gas was 2.89/gal. Lunchtime, today, I go by on the way to the library and gas is at 2.85, come back from the library and it is 2.81/gallon. By this weekend, at the rate it's going, we ccould see 2.50/gallon gas. I wish.
(2:21 PM) Fulkdaddy: Everything I have read says deflation is crushing
tomthetrader: DEFLATION is stocks worst enemy
tomthetrader: stocks can handle a bit of inflation but hate defaltion
tomthetrader: or deflation
tomthetrader: at least the indies are working it just goes in hours not weeks like before
tomthetrader: GOOG after bell
tomthetrader: could they save the tech world ?
(2:23 PM) ctmhou: VIX at 77..................WOW!
tomthetrader: or see the 200?
tomthetrader: Hit 80!
tomthetrader: VIX is a once in a lifetime event
(2:24 PM) youngamerican68_1: does the high VIX mean all options overpriced at this point
tomthetrader: Just think my first trades for TTT were at 7 VIX
(2:24 PM) ctmhou: This makes it hard to trade. Can't go to the bathroom with an open trade.
tomthetrader: YES
tomthetrader: YES Y
tomthetrader: YES
(2:25 PM) ctmhou: 7 VIX. That's the trend I would be looking for.
tomthetrader: all options overpriced and money is being made on every trade ...just look at my option trades today
tomthetrader: 50 NOKAG at 2.15; 30 NLVJF at 1.60; 12 OXBKH at 35.00; 50 GDQJH at 1.45; 15 AXVJI at 18.00;
tomthetrader: These are perfect examples of how the options market gets you
(2:26 PM) ctmhou: I said that I would never want to scalp a trade and now it looks as if that is the only way to make a profit.
(2:26 PM) Frank_TTT: i don't know how accurate there data is on this or if its even coputed the same today, but telechart shows that the VIX spiked to 172.29 (thats not a typo!) at the 1987 crash
(2:27 PM) ctmhou: I remember that day and people were really scared.
(2:30 PM) JR Roden: OK, it's time for that big finish today.
(2:36 PM) Fulkdaddy: I was probably drinking multiple beers back on Black Monday 1987...was it more scary then or now?
(2:36 PM) ctmhou: It seemed to be because of how fast it came on.
(2:37 PM) ctmhou: Now, it's just hopelessness.
(2:37 PM) youngamerican68_1: i think the suddeness of it made it more scary.. i know of friend in college whose father died of a heart attack a day after it happened
(2:37 PM) Fulkdaddy: Whoa
(2:39 PM) youngamerican68_1: i would think cardiac events are up this past month
(2:39 PM) thomas_Poland: ok I am back and don't see 974??
(2:39 PM) thomas_Poland: Are you working ?
(2:39 PM) thomas_Poland:
(2:39 PM) thomas_Poland: buy buy buy
(2:39 PM) thomas_Poland:
tomthetrader: for those who speculate on earnings trades our last shots at WERN GILD GOOG ISRG WL
tomthetrader: Hi thomas
tomthetrader: Motorcycle ?
(2:41 PM) thomas_Poland: no training
(2:42 PM) thomas_Poland: I have to do it
(2:42 PM) thomas_Poland: without this I would kill my comp many times
(2:42 PM) thomas_Poland: give me one bear close to me and I am mad man
(2:42 PM) thomas_Poland: it is getting to cold for motorcycle here
tomthetrader: really
tomthetrader: 79 and sunny here
(2:44 PM) thomas_Poland: pleeeaaaasssseee
(2:45 PM) thomas_Poland: I wish we have at least one buy program today
(2:45 PM) thomas_Poland: I can see only many sell programs today
(2:47 PM) ajayvee: but they're being bought...right Thomas?
(2:48 PM) ctmhou: Look at this spike on 5 min ES
(2:48 PM) thomas_Poland: ajay .. you kiding me or asking ?
(2:49 PM) ctmhou: I 'm in the kitchen with the kids and miss this . Tom, we need an audio alert from you to tell us what to look out for. Thank you.
(2:50 PM) ajayvee: asking, since I don't know where to look for that info
(2:50 PM) thomas_Poland: obviously someone is buying
(2:50 PM) ctmhou: Tom is buying since we don't see him.
(2:50 PM) thomas_Poland: the first program sell I told you about was at around 10 am
(2:50 PM) thomas_Poland: we did not even get there yet
(2:51 PM) ajayvee: is there an indicator?
(2:51 PM) thomas_Poland: I told you ajay .. I would have to kill you
(2:51 PM) ajayvee: why not tell me and then try to catch me
(2:52 PM) thomas_Poland: LOL
(2:52 PM) thomas_Poland: one day I will
(2:52 PM) thomas_Poland: but I can be wrong
(2:52 PM) thomas_Poland: I look at many internals
(2:52 PM) ajayvee: you're a lot like the market, you have your good days and your bad days
(2:53 PM) thomas_Poland: yes
(2:53 PM) thomas_Poland: I am breakeven last two months
(2:53 PM) thomas_Poland: hate it
(2:53 PM) thomas_Poland: hate it
(2:53 PM) thomas_Poland: hate it
(2:53 PM) thomas_Poland: the worse in last few months
(2:53 PM) thomas_Poland: or more
(2:53 PM) thomas_Poland: but I am getting better
(2:54 PM) thomas_Poland: want 100% to the end of the year
(2:55 PM) thomas_Poland: anybody has a bullish pattern on 5 min chart ?
(2:56 PM) csu30: Terrific music!
(2:57 PM) ajayvee: nice mix today tom!
(2:57 PM) thomas_Poland: not terrible?
(2:58 PM) thomas_Poland: Are you all above 80 years old ?
(2:58 PM) ajayvee: no just feel like it!
(3:00 PM) thomas_Poland: a/d line almost at zero
(3:00 PM) thomas_Poland: improving
(3:01 PM) thomas_Poland: TICK reading better an better
(3:01 PM) thomas_Poland: p/c ratio good
(3:01 PM) thomas_Poland: i wish TRIN start to trend lower
(3:01 PM) thomas_Poland: but it is getting better
(3:02 PM) thomas_Poland: only market does not know it
(3:03 PM) thomas_Poland: a/d line positive
(3:03 PM) Frank_TTT: on the 1 minute chart for DDM all the up moves today have been on higher volume than the down moves. maybe buyers finally getting upper hand on sellers. crasping for straws - i know
(3:04 PM) thomas_Poland: can we make 60 points in an hour ? up?
(3:04 PM) thomas_Poland:
(3:04 PM) thomas_Poland: or down ?
(3:06 PM) thomas_Poland: good
(3:07 PM) thomas_Poland: if we don't get down now we will move much higher
(3:07 PM) Frank_TTT: shorts probably runnin for cover now
(3:09 PM) thomas_Poland: strong close today means we will be higher tomorrow
(3:09 PM) Frank_TTT: what would be great....if GOOG can blow out numbers after the bell although i don't think thats going to happen
(3:11 PM) PhotosbyDill: I will go photograph more so the market will go up for you. OK?
(3:12 PM) PhotosbyDill: you welcome
(3:12 PM) thomas_Poland: a/d line is rising
(3:12 PM) thomas_Poland: 540
(3:12 PM) thomas_Poland: TRIN trending down as wanted
(3:12 PM) thomas_Poland: TICK good
(3:12 PM) thomas_Poland:
(3:13 PM) thomas_Poland: yes WE are great
(3:13 PM) thomas_Poland: 974 today Tom?
(3:14 PM) thomas_Poland:
(3:14 PM) JR Roden: Guys, I hate to take credit for this move up, but it wasn't until I jumped on a short position that the market turned around (literally 5 min after I opened that play).
(3:14 PM) thomas_Poland: Can you do it tomorrow?
(3:14 PM) thomas_Poland:
(3:14 PM) JR Roden: Fortunately, I listened to you guys and jumped on the up wagon shortly after that play
(3:14 PM) JR Roden: yes, still a GREAT day.
(3:15 PM) thomas_Poland: ajay how did you like it ?
(3:15 PM) thomas_Poland:
(3:16 PM) ajayvee: was that a buy program or a sell program being bought?
(3:16 PM) thomas_Poland: LOL
(3:16 PM) thomas_Poland: no buy program in my opinion
(3:16 PM) thomas_Poland: just good internals
(3:16 PM) ajayvee: I'm feeling pretty good inside also
(3:16 PM) youngamerican68_1: so where do we short?
(3:19 PM) thomas_Poland: good ajay
(3:23 PM) JR Roden: do you expect a run up or drop off into the close?
(3:24 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: get out and take the profit just from the increase in volatility today
(3:25 PM) JR Roden: Great. thanks.
(3:26 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: Thomas can you put the list up agan, pls
(3:27 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: let me look thx
(3:28 PM) thomas_Poland: i will
(3:28 PM) syzygy111: 9:36 am on positions
(3:29 PM) syzygy111: check your email of 11:49 for listing
tomthetrader: Thanks !
tomthetrader: will we get 400
tomthetrader: move up stops on futures to .5% trailing
tomthetrader: OK
(3:32 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: Hey if anyone is interested, there is an easy 3.7% return for doing an $NDX Iron Condor right now. The $NDX options settle with open tomorrow. So overnight hold. It's the 1125/1200 Bull Put Spread & 1425/1500 Bear Call Spread = $2.70 total credit on $7300 margin 84.8% probability between
(3:33 PM) thomas_Poland: I remember
(3:33 PM) thomas_Poland:
(3:33 PM) thomas_Poland: when the market was great for us
(3:33 PM) thomas_Poland: for us
(3:33 PM) thomas_Poland:
(3:33 PM) thomas_Poland: I am singing with Phill
(3:33 PM) thomas_Poland: O lord
(3:33 PM) thomas_Poland: give us bull market
(3:33 PM) thomas_Poland:
(3:34 PM) ajayvee: the hurt doesn't show, but the pain still grows
(3:34 PM) thomas_Poland: they had to do it
tomthetrader: we are just ready to blast off
(3:35 PM) thomas_Poland: hope so
(3:36 PM) thomas_Poland: not with this music
(3:36 PM) thomas_Poland:
(3:36 PM) bloomert: nice Boston
(3:36 PM) thomas_Poland: unless you mean I will blast off
tomthetrader: 1292 NQ sold 2
tomthetrader: 925 ES 2 sold
(3:38 PM) dizzzing: hello
(3:38 PM) tomthetrader: tomthetrader has bounced dizzzing from the chat room
tomthetrader: good bye
tomthetrader: selling options MOC
tomthetrader: 300 is between 200-400 up ?
(3:44 PM) thomas_Poland: Tom 974 today .. come on !
(3:45 PM) Fulkdaddy: yes
(3:45 PM) thomas_Poland: Tom you don't give me a chance to introduce myself to guests
(3:45 PM) thomas_Poland: dizzing wanted to talk
(3:45 PM) thomas_Poland: to early ??
(3:46 PM) thomas_Poland:
(3:47 PM) thomas_Poland: 399 positios covered
(3:47 PM) thomas_Poland: 206 wins
(3:47 PM) thomas_Poland: 160 losses
(3:48 PM) thomas_Poland: 33 breakeven
(3:48 PM) thomas_Poland: 51.63 percentage winning trades .. very uncommon for TTT but will be 70 I am sure at the end of the quartere
(3:50 PM) Frank_TTT: ttt...nice call today. do you expect gap up tomorrow?
tomthetrader: Yes
tomthetrader: +300
(3:52 PM) Frank_TTT: then its a sell the gap like tuesday morning?
tomthetrader: Pretty much sideways up after tomorrow short squeeze
(3:53 PM) Frank_TTT: thnx
(3:54 PM) thomas_Poland: Realised gain 75640
(3:54 PM) thomas_Poland: for TTT
(3:54 PM) thomas_Poland: some unrealised looses but ..
(3:55 PM) thomas_Poland: well maybe a lot of looses
tomthetrader: still margined a bit
(3:56 PM) thomas_Poland: Tom almost 400
(3:56 PM) thomas_Poland: now
(3:58 PM) JR Roden: Great call on the market today!
(4:00 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: Incredible. Sorry you had to be out at your Dr's appt.
tomthetrader: MALONE TTT 1 McHUGH 0
(4:00 PM) ctmhou: lpl
(4:00 PM) ctmhou: lol
(4:00 PM) JR Roden: It still feels a little like the wizard of Oz, as your calls for targets seem like magic yet to me! But I'm enjoying the ride.
(4:00 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: I got filled at $4.46 on my Iron Condo at close. Double what I was expecting!
tomthetrader: LOOK at the closes on my options
tomthetrader: GOOG 4.92 rev
(4:01 PM) thefish102: DJ Google 3Q EPS $4.24
tomthetrader: GOOG up big
(4:01 PM) ctmhou: TK probably went long 100% @ 10:10 this morning.
tomthetrader: 4.92 rev GOOG
(4:01 PM) thefish102: DJ Google 3Q Net $1.35B
(4:01 PM) Frank_TTT: those VIX nov calls, VQXWP that we looked at when VIX was around 80 earlier had b/a 35/36. now VIX at 66.76 and the price is 36.9/38.2. not much return for such a move
(4:01 PM) thefish102: DJ Google 3Q Rev $5.54B
(4:01 PM) Frank_TTT: goog up 43
(4:02 PM) thomas_Poland: why not ES?
(4:02 PM) ctmhou: Put the crack pipe down, Tom
tomthetrader: AXVJI OXBKH GDQJH
(4:02 PM) thomas_Poland: Did you cover?
(4:02 PM) ctmhou: Yeah, yeah, yeah
(4:02 PM) thomas_Poland: I guess not
tomthetrader: on the close
tomthetrader: 13 minutes
tomthetrader: 10 minutes
(4:03 PM) thomas_Poland: oh ok
tomthetrader: confirms coming in
tomthetrader: MOC
tomthetrader: 23.6 +10.50 (+80.15%)
(4:04 PM) ctmhou: Manipulation?
tomthetrader: 38.5 +11.50 (+42.59%)
tomthetrader: AXVJI - ISRG OCT 2008 200 Call
23.6 +10.50 (+80.15%

tomthetrader: OXBKH - OEX NOV 2008 440 Call
38.5 +11.50 (+42.59%)

(4:06 PM) thomas_Poland: a/d finished 1242
(4:06 PM) thomas_Poland: was -1800?
tomthetrader: GDQJH - OCT 2008 40 Call
2.4 +1.35 (+128.57%)

(4:07 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: Tom what broker do you use (out of curiosity)?
(4:07 PM) ctmhou: Yeah, Tom.
(4:07 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: kewl
(4:08 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: Am I safe with 112 pt buffer on the NDX for opening settlement tomorrow?
(4:08 PM) ctmhou: Is that all?
(4:08 PM) ctmhou: Like playing Craps........
(4:08 PM) ajayvee: IBM better than preannouncement
tomthetrader: XLK on a roll
(4:09 PM) thomas_Poland: just don't forget to write me those fills
(4:09 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: thank god!
(4:09 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: we can still buy some more xlkat for 35c-50c
tomthetrader: BUY BUY BUY DCA
tomthetrader: Please save today's chat ...print and put on the calendar

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