Sunday, May 20, 2007

WHY BEARISH WHY NOW JOIN TODAY AND DOUBLE YOUR MONEY BY CHRISTMAS !!!!

The most commonly asked question I have gotten since Friday Morning at 10:30 am when I began to take profits in all stocks and begin "shorting" this market harder than I ever had is "WHY NOW?".


Why Not Now ???? I wish it wasn't now ..I had made plans for this market so grind through the summer to 1600SPX then fall 10% and make a race to January 08 for a 25-28% gain for the year. This could still happen if we have our SHARP SCARY correction now ..if we do not we will have a BEAR MARKET beginning as early as August.


With my proprietary indicators reaching all sell signals and from notes and excerpts from previous market tops ...I felt not only the need to go to cash ...but also to take advantage of what appears to be a classic Bull market correction or BEAR MARKET . You know I started toying with the notion a week or so ago and now it is even more clear in my mind as 56 months of Bull with a blowoff in the last 45 sessions being possibly the last leg up I was and have been referring to in all my editorials . I again was counting on 6-7 more months of Bull but I do not think we are going to get it and the risk / reward by buying short now is SO dang high ...just a 3% correction will give us a 22% profit from Fridays close and a 10% correction !!!!! A double !!!! On the upside , I have to admit ...I want to be in the market on the Bull side ..I still can emotionally see the market hitting my beloved 250.00 GS and 50.00 QQQQ by the 4th of July , but to get there from here non stop will be literally impossible ...even with sideways action we can get out of puts with small losses and make a little on DXD and QLD if they even go down a bit.

So I hope this helps along with the wealth of materials I have sent in explaining why the biggest Bull on the net has gone exactly the opposite !!!

Just a month or so ago my stock picks were :
Then Now

EMC 14.15 - 15.75

GS 208.10 - 230.34

GSF 63.15 - 68.63

INTC 19.99 - 22.70

MEOH 22.45 - 26.18

MS 79.98 - 85.05

VLO 66.90 - 74.09


And I will not even mention some spec plays and earnings plays that have just been truly parabolic

This is a BULL market as good as any I have seen , my emotions and GREED tells me to go grab some more easy money ..it's out there ..buy some takeover from your value GEMS list below ...stocks are sure to be taken over next month !!!

But I am going to be cautious ..maybe crazy cautious in the face of such momentum ...but with all news being good news and filling the tank costs $50 minimum and homes are being foreclosed and the wages are not keeping up with inflation and unemployment soon to rise smartly ...with jobs with no benefits and low rates....I am betting against the US economy for awhile as we can't borrow against our homes or credit cards will be maxed with gas purposes and I am just flat technically spent on the duration and quality of the last 45 sessions.

Value Gems Below

Also ...I hope you all know ..."You do not have to do anything I do " ...as a matter of fact after polling most of you individually along the way ...99% do not do hardly anything I do ...I only hear about it when I was wrong !!!! Most of you have your own skills and stocks and investment plans and I am just a tool to use ..maybe contrary indicator ...I hope not because I know the success I have had and I would have hated to be on the other side of 95% of my trades since inception. But this is as tough a market as I have seen with crosscurrents everywhere. Best Of Luck and let me know if I can help !!!

I will as many of you know ...give advice on every single stock you can send me ...J.S. send me stock questions 2-20 times a day ..last week we put him in

NVDA
INTU

He did very ...I will always work with you no matter what you want to do ...sure when I had 20 stocks in the portfolio and someone wants to buy athergenetics !!! I tell them please ..we are Bullish I spent a ton of time and the timing is perfect for all of these....oh well ...here is just our last major portfolio and I get drop dead ILL when I think if I didn't have a brain I would just have rode these out and still be sitting with stops under !!!! The PAIN of it all

1. DOW 5 % SEPT 40.00 TSM
2. EMC 5 % OCT 14.00 HP
3. GLW 5 % AUG 22.50 ASTA
4. GSK 5% JAN 08 60.00 SIM
5. GS 5 % JULY 220.00 GLBL
6. GSF 5 % JULY 60.00 PCU
7. INTC 5 % JAN 08 17.50 RAD
8. IMCL 5 % JAN 08 40.00 DISH
9. MYL 5 % JAN 08 20.00 LUFK
10. MEOH 5 % OCT 22.50 PHI
11. MS 5 % JAN 08 80.00 ANR
12. NDAQ 5 % SEPT 30.00 HK
13. NKE 5 % JAN 08 50.00 CRR
14. NSM 5 % JAN 08 25.00 MERC
15. SMH 5 % JAN 08 35.00 TTI
16. VLO 5 % MAY 65.00 SIMO
17. WHQ 5 % OCT 50.00 ACLS
18. QCOM 5 % MAY 42.50 SPIL
19 and 20. QLD 10% QQQQ SEPT 44.00 PAAS


VALUE GEMS BUYOUTS !!!!


Value Gems

These stocks are all rated 'Buy' and have a Value composite for each stock.

(141) Results
Ticker
Grade
ROE
Value

Company Name
Earnings Release
IVAC
92.7
32.360
A
INTEVAC INC
04/30/2007

HP
92.0
24.263
A
HELMERICH & PAYNE
04/23/2007

NOK
90.7
35.705
A-
NOKIA (AB) OY
04/20/2007

GLBL
90.6
27.530
A
GLOBAL INDUSTRIES LTD
04/30/2007

STLD
88.2
32.224
A-
STEEL DYNAMICS INC
04/17/2007

PCU
87.9
55.573
A-
SOUTHERN COPPER CORP
04/26/2007

ESV
87.9
23.588
A-
ENSCO INTERNATIONAL INC
04/24/2007

CLF
87.5
37.907
A-
CLEVELAND-CLIFFS INC
04/23/2007

THE
87.4
32.541
A
TODCO
05/04/2007

MEOH
86.8
39.938
A
METHANEX CORP
04/30/2007

AEIS
86.6
24.504
A-
ADVANCED ENERGY INDS INC
04/25/2007

FRGB
84.9
26.077
A
FIRST REGIONAL BANCORP
04/18/2007

PTEN
84.9
43.045
A+
PATTERSON-UTI ENERGY INC
05/03/2007

CIB
84.8
29.082
A
BANCOLOMBIA SA
05/02/2007

CRDN
84.6
31.579
A-
CERADYNE INC
04/23/2007

ARRS
84.0
23.860
A-
ARRIS GROUP INC
04/25/2007

STO
83.7
33.229
A
STATOIL ASA
05/08/2007

TNP
83.6
26.004
A
TSAKOS ENERGY NAVIGATION
05/21/2007

BVN
83.5
32.915
A
MINAS BUENAVENTURA SA
04/27/2007

BHP
83.4
43.412
A-
BHP BILLITON GROUP (AUS)
05/17/2007

WHQ
82.9
23.339
A
W-H ENERGY SERVICES INC
04/27/2007

HL
82.8
30.518
A-
HECLA MINING CO
05/02/2007

BAS
82.0
26.059
A
BASIC ENERGY SERVICES INC
05/10/2007

PDC
81.8
20.706
A+
PIONEER DRILLING CO
05/25/2007

CPSS
81.8
35.472
A
CONSUMER PORTFOLIO SVCS I
04/25/2007

HERO
81.7
30.151
A
HERCULES OFFSHORE INC
05/01/2007

PMTI
81.7
45.228
A-
PALOMAR MED TECHNOLOGIES
04/26/2007

KOMG
81.6
26.167
A+
KOMAG INC
04/25/2007

RTP
80.3
40.796
A
RIO TINTO GROUP (GBP)
05/07/2007

GW
80.1
41.205
A
GREY WOLF INC
05/02/2007

AHM
80.1
22.029
A-
AMERICAN HOME MTG INVT CO
04/30/2007

ACTS
79.8
35.730
A
ACTIONS SEMICNDCTR LTD -A
04/26/2007

HOC
79.7
52.972
A-
HOLLY CORP
05/08/2007

VNT
79.6
34.314
A
CANTV-CA NAC TELEFONOS VE
06/22/2007

RAIL
79.4
63.145
A
FREIGHTCAR AMERICA INC
05/07/2007

TWLL
79.3
23.137
A-
TECHWELL INC
05/03/2007

ASPV
79.2
44.084
A
ASPREVA PHARMACEUTICALS C
05/02/2007

HLX
78.9
22.546
A-
HELIX ENERGY SOLUTIONS GR
05/02/2007

UNT
78.7
26.957
A
UNIT CORP
04/30/2007

SFY
78.7
20.248
A
SWIFT ENERGY CO
05/03/2007

ACAS
78.4
20.613
A-
AMERICAN CAPITAL STRATEGI
04/30/2007

BHI
78.3
45.749
A-
BAKER HUGHES INC
04/25/2007

MS
78.2
22.828
A-
MORGAN STANLEY
06/21/2007

TGA
78.1
25.988
A
TRANSGLOBE ENERGY CORP
05/01/2007

X
78.0
31.294
A
UNITED STATES STEEL CORP
04/24/2007

WDC
78.0
31.754
A
WESTERN DIGITAL CORP
04/26/2007

MERC
77.7
31.646
A
MERCER INTL INC
05/07/2007

PRS
77.1
20.535
A-
PRIMUS GUARANTY LTD
05/08/2007

AMSF
76.9
23.528
A
AMERISAFE INC
05/09/2007

CMI
76.5
25.517
A+
CUMMINS INC
04/30/2007

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PayPal $75 to tomandprisha@msn.com For an 07 Premium membership with 10-20 e-mails per day and my individual attention to your portfoilio !!!

Have a great Day !!!

Tom

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