Thursday, April 30, 2009


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here is today's action :

tomthetrader: Yes I jut got 5 e-mails
tomthetrader: Must be the BULL run they laid off so many in the bear now they have inadequate resources to handle the Bull
(10:42 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: TP what is the link to the document?
(10:43 AM) bogdan07: FSLR 188, +37 ?
(10:43 AM) thomas_Poland: just write "Perspective on the credit slowdown" into google
(10:43 AM) thomas_Poland: should be first one
(10:44 AM) thomas_Poland: or here I found
tomthetrader: FSLR Great earnings got all the solars on fire yesterday
tomthetrader: TAN we spoke of 8:30am as a buy
tomthetrader: HBAN and JDSU I am looking as fallen angels that I may add to this IRA account late today
(10:53 AM) Nick_H_SanDiego: thanks tp
tomthetrader: I have to go out for a dentist visit just up the street will be out til noon ...DIE BULLS ?
(10:56 AM) thomas_Poland: die bears for a moment
(10:58 AM) thomas_Poland: mute button used!
(10:58 AM) thomas_Poland:
tomthetrader: easy
(10:58 AM) desertone: mute button on
(11:01 AM) Alert: Learn how to prepare for a first date on the Diana Falzone Show in the Radio/TV Section NOW [Free Video]
(11:02 AM) redliontrader: ugh.... this tradestation has me all frustrated! I can't trust any of my indicators now till they correct the data...
(11:03 AM) tcb66: Aruj - Any thoughts on the bonds today after yesterday's big move?
(11:05 AM) thomas_Poland: red .. even when TS works indicators are not right often
(11:06 AM) PremR: I call it the Trade Station uncertainity principle: you can't have both correct price/data and fast execution.
(11:07 AM) redliontrader: I like that Prem... TP, i know indicators are a crutch for the week.. but we can't all afford seikos
(11:07 AM) redliontrader: weak
(11:07 AM) redliontrader: or week, month, year, day, intraday
(11:12 AM) Alert: ====SECURITY BULLETIN!=======
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(11:13 AM) Pete45: When I bout FAZ yesterday I had also bought a small portion of UYG as a hedge –almost at break even now
(11:15 AM) arujunaa: tcb: we're in limbo right now. i am watching 119.875/120.125 on tym9. for TLT/TBT players, watch 122.00 on usm9. building value below there projects 117.00! but i wouldn't sell for that move right now. i would wait for a bounce to sell if you are bearish.
(11:16 AM) arujunaa: the short end of the yield curve trades like a champion which tells me that this sell-off is a supply concession (which could last a few more days) rather than any fundamental shift in views on the economy. having said that, technicals are the new fundamentals when it comes to bonds.....
(11:25 AM) tcb66: Thanks Aruj ....always appreciate your insights
(11:26 AM) JR Roden: This run look so tired, but it just keeps presssng forward. The Q's moved back to the 13 EMA on the 5 min chart twice today and bounced.
(11:28 AM) thomas_Poland: they will always push to the level where most people cannot handle it
(11:29 AM) Fulkdaddy: Lowery's Buying pressure Index has fallen 5 points whyile the selling pressure index has risen 5 points over the past couple of weeks. This is bearish
(11:32 AM) redliontrader: 886 showing some tought resistance... TP you think 900?
(11:33 AM) thomas_Poland: no
(11:34 AM) thomas_Poland: not now
(11:34 AM) thomas_Poland: but I reserve the right to change my mind
(11:42 AM) PremR: fulkdaddy: i get lowry newsletter and i think they believe that this rally has some legs to it still.
tomthetrader: 1365 new 50 day highs very strong bull market
tomthetrader: Now sentiment trader Jason G says chances of down day 0% after yesterday saying 100% get what you pay for !
(11:53 AM) PremR: was someone here talking about ray dailo of bridgwater fame here yesterday...if so here is a investor letter from him that was sent out today.
(11:59 AM) eman11: A/D +1387
tomthetrader: 3x A/d +
tomthetrader: Market breadth still abnormally Great for Bulls as Dow swoons
(12:15 PM) Alert: The latest on the Chrysler bankruptcy on the Bobby Likis Car Clinic in the Radio/TV Section NOW [Free Video]
tomthetrader: Beazer Homes BZH a ttt recom at 1.00 went to .25 and now ?
tomthetrader: BZH
tomthetrader: GM getting a nice move for ZAGS ?
tomthetrader: Zags was mad atme for picking GM
tomthetrader: market has 0 weakness ...if someone can find it PLEASE LET ME KNOW !
(12:25 PM) PremR: vix has been increasing over the last one hour
tomthetrader: For those whom like silver and gold plays ..I am starting to look at HL Hecla mining
tomthetrader: Prem...that would indicate at least some fear the rally is over ?
tomthetrader: Put buying OK
(12:26 PM) PremR: not claiming that just looking for signs of weakness.
tomthetrader: but we have BEARISH 10-21 day put call signal;s which should leave May call buyers hurting
tomthetrader: if this was a non government sponsored entity
tomthetrader: Questions ?
tomthetrader: HL increasing capacity and if you like silver and now they have more gold assets HL is a good spec
tomthetrader: another is a long time fave SIM which can be bought cheap here ..SIM is for the recovery
tomthetrader: LOD
(12:32 PM) redliontrader: i agree, i think we will most likely snap back from here, shorts will take advantage of the dips to try and salvage
(12:32 PM) desertone: Sitting on hands presently
tomthetrader: good some SRS
tomthetrader: 10% short SRS
(12:35 PM) redliontrader: i took some tna at 27.00
(12:36 PM) redliontrader: my pos is a 10 minute scalp
tomthetrader: I am just preparing for a bad employment number and a 1-5 day 5% correction from the highs
(12:38 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: Prem, thanks for the Bridgewater report. Very informative.
(12:39 PM) PremR: yw
tomthetrader: Yes thank you Prem...good man
(12:40 PM) redliontrader: I am just trading according to Jason G.. I am both long and short
tomthetrader: Yes..Jason getting like TK ?
(12:43 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: es going for gap fill
(12:44 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: A/D dropping since 11:15, $BANK dropping since 10:05; $VIX rising since 11:18
(12:44 PM) PremR: close below 875 is a turtle soup sell right?
(12:45 PM) desertone: In SRS @ 23.06
tomthetrader: go back to 25% short if drops below 875 cash
(12:47 PM) desertone: I stayed put,,,, Tom Did not get out of short positions
(12:47 PM) ajayvee: me too desertone
(12:48 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: $BANK is just crashing
(12:48 PM) eman11: Buying any futures
(12:48 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: NO! flat on futures
(12:50 PM) desertone: wtg ajayvee
tomthetrader: No..we are 25% short again
tomthetrader: srs bgz
(12:51 PM) pupster: IWM may rest it's weary head on 49.1 to fill a gap and rest on the 50 EMA period on the 15 minute...also an uptrend line
tomthetrader: i HAD 250 iwm 50 PUTS i SOLD WAY TOO SOON
(12:53 PM) PremR: new lows in NYSE ticks and vix continues to go up
(12:59 PM) PremR: AD line has decreased from over +1500 to about +600 now
tomthetrader: really fits our picture perfect
tomthetrader: Thank you the dive below the breakout crates a " false" breakout which is usually bearish for 5% drop
(1:17 PM) ajayvee: y
(1:18 PM) Bert_TTT: y
(1:18 PM) eman11: y
(1:18 PM) PremR: y
(1:18 PM) desertone:
(1:18 PM) thomas_Poland: go to poland I will take your teeth away for free
(1:19 PM) thomas_Poland: I have special hammer for this kind of work
(1:19 PM) desertone: Guide the newbies
(1:20 PM) thomas_Poland: those highs on Thursday came as planned
(1:20 PM) thomas_Poland: we should go down below 814 Spx
(1:20 PM) thomas_Poland: that is my plan
(1:22 PM) thomas_Poland: we still should have one more rally today .. or at least good sideways to up move
(1:23 PM) thomas_Poland: 200 sma here
(1:23 PM) eman11: A/D +514
(1:23 PM) JR Roden: Q's down to today's opening price on the gap up.
(1:24 PM) JR Roden: Strike that comment as the Q's just dropped another .10 in the past minute
(1:24 PM) thomas_Poland: if we get one more rally it should start here !
(1:26 PM) desertone: TP !! they must sell Crystal balls cheap in Polland!!!Wow look at that....
(1:27 PM) desertone: Just as you said that the FAS is breathing again and SRS is chocking
(1:27 PM) redliontrader: I asked Tom a question last night in email this was his response -> ...this is the false breakout stage ...we poke through post another intraday high tomorrow and then selloff for several days 3-5%
(1:31 PM) pupster: IWM fills gap and hite that 15 minute up trendline
(1:31 PM) Pete45: FAZ came back to where I got in it yesterday –I sold way too early
(1:31 PM) pupster: hits
(1:40 PM) JR Roden: Q's once again the only index to stay positive at this point.
(2:04 PM) eman11: Battle over the 875 level occuring
(2:04 PM) thomas_Poland: and magically we moved up
(2:08 PM) azags: I was away from the computer but came back pleasantly surprised. I bought 2200 qid in the premarket at 36.85 and then bought another 10000 qid at 36.30 and 36.35. earlier today I was calling Thomas for a pink lifeboat. Now I can buy the cruise ship. I am going to sell some now
(2:10 PM) desertone: Very nice azags
(2:13 PM) eman11: nice Trade Zags
(2:15 PM) azags: I am still underwater in faz which i bought late yesterday at 8.25 but I have cornered the market on gm and may unload some now since it is up .13
(2:15 PM) thomas_Poland: if we still move up I will look to short near 3:20 time
(2:17 PM) azags: Thomas you are exactly right although I started going short late yesterday and added to my shorts today. I will keep my shorts until at least tomorrow
(2:19 PM) thomas_Poland: die bears for now
(2:20 PM) thomas_Poland: normaly spoos close positive .. 100% of the time ... in todays pattern
(2:20 PM) thomas_Poland: my basis for long position and my morning indicator is bullish which confirms positive close for today
(2:20 PM) thomas_Poland: stop breakeven and no risk
(2:20 PM) thomas_Poland: I like it
(2:21 PM) azags: I sold some of my qid at 37.1
(2:21 PM) thomas_Poland: maybe 878 879 ES?
(2:23 PM) thomas_Poland: If I take few good points it will be last trade of today
(2:23 PM) thomas_Poland: "the longer you sit at blackjack table the more money you will loose"
(2:24 PM) PremR: Citibank started this rally with their announcement on 3/9 but as this rally has been going to highs Citi just sits there.....wouldn't be surprised if this rally ends Citi get pulverized.
(2:26 PM) thomas_Poland: for today I have two scenarios in mind .. or we go up till the close or we will turn down at around 3:20
(2:36 PM) Alert: BREAKING NEWS: Obama security team member has swine flu
(2:38 PM) pupster: mini H&S on the 15 minute IWM ... needs to break 48.97 to validate
(2:46 PM) Fulkdaddy: Does everyone see the red alert above pupsters post? Swime flu hits a Security member of Obama?
(2:46 PM) berniectx: yes
(2:47 PM) desertone: Yes?
(2:47 PM) azags: The trading gods spoke to me and told me the short term trend is down. I don't know if that is today, tomorrow, and or Monday but it is down and I have made some dollars today being short . I also sold a portion of my gm 50000 shares today at 1.95 bought at 1.88. I still have a lot of Pontiacs left
(2:48 PM) desertone: Bravo azags excellent trade!
(2:49 PM) berniectx: you have done well Zags keep it up!
(2:49 PM) pupster: love the way Zags trades
(2:49 PM) azags: I sold some more qid at 37.05 hoping to buy it cheaper today
(2:49 PM) desertone: Someone in here Bot calls and Sold Puts on GM I wonder how he did
(2:49 PM) pupster: you need a couple of mil to make it work for ya
(2:55 PM) azags: Thomas make the market do up so I can reload on my qid at a lower price
(2:56 PM) redliontrader: Thomas - I missed your article on 3x etfs. I had concluded that shorting them for holds was ok, is that not the case?
(2:58 PM) thomas_Poland: it showed that long and short ETF's were down together !
(2:59 PM) thomas_Poland: as those 3xETFs have bearish bias
(2:59 PM) thomas_Poland: you have to read it
(2:59 PM) redliontrader: yes, but like I just took a short on TNA, if I hold overnight that is good form me
(2:59 PM) thomas_Poland: is TNA bear fund ?
(2:59 PM) thomas_Poland: sorry I don't trade them so I am not sure
(2:59 PM) redliontrader: 3x bull
(2:59 PM) thomas_Poland: so no
(3:00 PM) thomas_Poland: oh .. short TNA .. sorry
(3:00 PM) thomas_Poland:
(3:00 PM) thomas_Poland: so why not long bear fund?
(3:01 PM) redliontrader: in case I want to hold overnight
(3:03 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: Thomas, what is the link?
(3:03 PM) thomas_Poland: Tom sent it
(3:04 PM) azags: I also bought at the close yesterday rytpx which is 2x the inverse of the S&P so I have to hold it for 1+ day since I often pull the trigger too fast on an etf when I have a profit
(3:05 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: thx tp
(3:06 PM) berniectx: pretty quick downdraft
(3:06 PM) eman11: For the FAZ watchers JPM just hit a new LOD, the rest of the financials could follow.
(3:07 PM) azags: The market was ordained to go down.
(3:07 PM) redliontrader: zags I like that strategy - I thought there is a holding period for MFunds.. can you trade in and out like that on a day to day basis?
(3:07 PM) azags: My faz is still underwater having bought it at 8.25
(3:08 PM) JR Roden: The Q's went up to touch the downtrend line from this moring and rolled over again at a high of about $34..46
(3:09 PM) azags: Yes I can trade a Rydex dynamic fund the same day but I can do it online. I have to talk to a representative
(3:10 PM) azags: I can't do it online, a Rydex fund the same day but with a rep
(3:12 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: zags i remember you said you do that on purpose to enforce discipline on yourself so you don't get out too fast
(3:12 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: rydex can be traded twice per day, right?
(3:12 PM) azags: yes
(3:12 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: great enforcement idea!
(3:14 PM) azags: yes twice per day. I would have made a lot more on rytpx if I would have bought it at this morning's fix rather than at the close yesterday
(3:16 PM) azags: Where is Tom?
(3:17 PM) ajayvee: his tooth must be stuck!
(3:19 PM) JR Roden: To much laughing gas from the dentist
(3:21 PM) thomas_Poland: or the dentist is hot!
(3:21 PM) redliontrader: So we think 845ish from here? Was that the plan Tom left us with?
(3:21 PM) thomas_Poland:
(3:21 PM) redliontrader: 5% from 888
(3:24 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: so 845 ish
(3:25 PM) thomas_Poland: we will go below 814 Spx
(3:28 PM) redliontrader: TP - do you think quickly from here? 814 when? I would think some violent swings before we go there
(3:29 PM) desertone: But not today TP ....
(3:29 PM) desertone: That would be cataclysmic
(3:30 PM) thomas_Poland: not today
(3:30 PM) thomas_Poland:
(3:30 PM) thomas_Poland: first or second week of may
(3:30 PM) desertone: That's doable !
(3:31 PM) ajayvee: first week of May starts tomorrow
(3:31 PM) eman11: I got knocked off - What Tom said before was look for a close below 875.56 that is key level. (if I'm incorrect please correct me)
(3:31 PM) thomas_Poland: and please can you see 3:20 bar?
(3:31 PM) pupster: yeah...i think he said 876ish
(3:32 PM) thomas_Poland: I just have to explain myself
(3:32 PM) thomas_Poland: when I say a time like 3:20 I 'know" something will happen
(3:32 PM) thomas_Poland: often it is bottom or top
(3:32 PM) thomas_Poland: at the time I said 3:20 I though it will be top
(3:32 PM) thomas_Poland: but for me time is more important than price
(3:32 PM) thomas_Poland: so 3:20 a bottom
(3:33 PM) thomas_Poland: period .
(3:41 PM) azags: just sold some more qid at 37.25
(3:41 PM) redliontrader: so TP what is the next time that something might happen?
(3:47 PM) thomas_Poland: close
(3:47 PM) thomas_Poland:
(3:48 PM) redliontrader: good call.. you are good
(3:48 PM) PremR: i predict 8:30 tomorrow morning
(3:48 PM) ajayvee: are we holding shorts overnite?
(3:48 PM) thomas_Poland: yes market will open
(3:48 PM) PremR: that and we have non farm payroll numbers
(3:48 PM) PremR: eastern time
(3:48 PM) thomas_Poland: yes .. just kidding
(3:48 PM) thomas_Poland:
(3:49 PM) thomas_Poland: it will open at 9:30
(3:49 PM) thomas_Poland: we have good chance of going up in globex ?
(3:49 PM) DE_TTT: Depends where you are, TP
(3:51 PM) thomas_Poland: tomorrow can be a repeat of Monday
(3:51 PM) thomas_Poland: so do not trust morning rally
(3:51 PM) thomas_Poland:
(3:51 PM) thomas_Poland: I won't be here tomorrow
(3:51 PM) thomas_Poland: so don't give a s...
(3:51 PM) thomas_Poland:
(3:51 PM) thomas_Poland: sorry
(3:52 PM) arujunaa: fyi, unempl report is next friday, not tomorrow.
(3:53 PM) PremR: hmmm...i thought it was first friday of month.
(3:53 PM) PremR: i stand is next friday
(3:53 PM) ajayvee: tom was basing his outlook on a bad employment number tomorrow
(3:54 PM) arujunaa: usually it is. but not when it is the 1st of the month
(3:55 PM) thomas_Poland: who cares ? We go down below 814 Spx
(3:55 PM) thomas_Poland:
(3:56 PM) thomas_Poland: unless we don't
(3:58 PM) PremR: banks look like they are going out on the lows
(3:59 PM) Fulkdaddy: Just below 875...871
(3:59 PM) Pete45: FAZ back up to 8.33
(4:01 PM) eman11: We closed below the 875.56 that Tom mentioned - Good Sign for the bears
(4:01 PM) azags: this is scary with faz. I was underwater all day with my cost being 8.25
(4:01 PM) Pete45: Azags -did you sell FAZ or are you holding?
(4:02 PM) azags: holding faz
(4:02 PM) Pete45: k thanks
(4:02 PM) redliontrader: good sell off at the end, so we settled around 872 which means a downside target of 845 according to TOM's 5% from the top (888) rule
(4:04 PM) netherbow: nite everyone - thxs for posts
(4:05 PM) desertone: Good Nite from this end also Enjoy your evening !!
(4:29 PM) redliontrader: did you other tradestation users know there was a critical download for tradestation?
(4:59 PM) Alert: Obama's campaign promises, hate crimes in the USA, voting rights act challenge, Chrysler bankruptcy, and swine flu treatment for people without medical insurance topics on News Talk Online in the Radio/TV Section NOW [Free Video]
(5:21 PM) ajayvee: yes red, it came out about a week ago after many customers were getting disconnected...connected...disconnected...
tomthetrader: they decided to take a wisdom tooth too ! I am in dream land !
tomthetrader: Plan working out here ?
(5:31 PM) ajayvee: it was a bit scary today but my shorts are in the green
(5:32 PM) ajayvee: does this mean you've lost your "wisdom" on stocks?
(5:33 PM) Alert: Obama's campaign promises, hate crimes in the USA, voting rights act challenge, Chrysler bankruptcy, and swine flu treatment for people without medical insurance topics on News Talk Online in the Radio/TV Section NOW [Free Video]
tomthetrader: Yes...I am now a dummie
tomthetrader: I have to ask what the heck happened ...looks real constructive for our pattern ?
tomthetrader: no tongue
tomthetrader: I can't talk well
(5:35 PM) ajayvee: well yesterday you said 100% chance for a down day, and it was, not much, but down
(5:36 PM) ajayvee: down tomorrow then? we closed below 875
tomthetrader: now it is getting worse...we should be ok we reentered at higher prices our shorts and should be OK SRS AH doing well
tomthetrader: Yes down for several day
tomthetrader: we made our topping formation perfectly
(5:37 PM) ajayvee: I didn't sell my shorts. I'm still holding yesterday's and they are green!
tomthetrader: yes
tomthetrader: takes courage ...there was some major shakeputs
tomthetrader: IWM cratered
tomthetrader: I had to sell 250 50.00 puts
(5:38 PM) ajayvee: i added near the highs, so that worked out wonderfully
tomthetrader: 1.75 price
tomthetrader: now ..I do not want to look
(5:42 PM) ajayvee: tom did you know employment numbers are next friday, never on the 1st friday if it is the first day of the month
tomthetrader: No ...I messed up !
tomthetrader: I magine that 20 hours a day this week trading overnight futures
tomthetrader: tough
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(7:02 PM) tomthetrader: olly163 was bounced from the room by tomthetrader. If you want to learn more about the rules for this room, read the room rules on the groups page or contact the owner: tomthetrader
tomthetrader: Futures and market can be shorted on rallies the next 10 days

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