Tuesday, April 21, 2009


(10:31 AM) DE_TTT: Bot BRCM...now I will go somewhere and sit on my hands for awhile.
(10:33 AM) arujunaa: i don't think it's fear as much as it is a lack of supply this week and with fed buybacks. from next week, there is a lot of supply coming followed by a massive refunding in may. i won't be long next week.
(10:34 AM) Fulkdaddy: Great info. Aruj...I will cover my TLT and IEF with you...thanks!
(10:35 AM) arujunaa: if we get tym to 123.75ish, i will sell the last 25%
tomthetrader: Thanks Aruj
(10:35 AM) arujunaa: thanks tom for the incredible stock calls!
(10:38 AM) berniectx: last time saw Geithner he looked 12 stress of the job is aging him looks almost 20 today
(10:46 AM) DE_TTT: Here comes the cavalry
(11:01 AM) redliontrader: small caps leading the way
tomthetrader: Good call DE ....you want to take over now ?
tomthetrader: Red : Any views on the Zweig thrust indicator ...where do you think we go from here
(11:04 AM) DE_TTT: LOL
tomthetrader: Thanks Red
(11:06 AM) DE_TTT: HBAN and FITB huge off the lows today
tomthetrader: 835.00 becomessupport again
(11:07 AM) redliontrader: ZBT went overbot on Friday, now in neutral area, midway between overbot and oversold, where all the pullbacks in this run have turned to go to overbot again
tomthetrader: Trading range ?
(11:08 AM) redliontrader: yes, until the pattern is broken
tomthetrader: date ?
tomthetrader: started
(11:10 AM) redliontrader: officeal b/o was march 18, the current pattern established 3/26
(11:10 AM) redliontrader: 4 overbots, 1 near
tomthetrader: OK ...and this area has supported rallies everytime /
tomthetrader: since a month ago
(11:11 AM) redliontrader: I don;t think this indicator has ever gone 4x overbot in a 1 monthish period, an incredible run off the bottom, very stron
(11:12 AM) shwqyy: Sided in Campaigning Remembrances from Fro to the Badmouthing and the Words Abominations…. Circularize this Vertebre
tomthetrader: agree...I have tracked similar and this has blown off all previous precedents
tomthetrader: Rally
tomthetrader: DE is a rally machone
tomthetrader: ]machine
tomthetrader: Machine
(11:14 AM) redliontrader: next overbot if the pattern holds will be spx 883 by thursday, but at some point this is going to go sideways i would think
(11:16 AM) tcb66: incredible strength in the small caps
(11:17 AM) DE_TTT: 4G buildout names starting to get attention...ALU, ERIC, PWAV, STAR
tomthetrader: Thank you
tomthetrader: probably work the market into a coiled spring into 875 next week
tomthetrader: end of month will force funds to buy
(11:24 AM) thomas_Poland: I hoped for new high this week
(11:24 AM) thomas_Poland: but this new high (if it comes) will be important int term top
(11:24 AM) thomas_Poland: we will go below 800 Spx I guess
(11:24 AM) thomas_Poland: but first .. let's make new high for this 'bull run""
(11:25 AM) pupster: good call for those who went long...!!!!
(11:25 AM) DE_TTT: Yes...good work, TP. You said yesterday would be at or near the low for the week.
(11:25 AM) DE_TTT: Someone finally woke up the SMH...deep slumber today.
tomthetrader: yes ...OIL
tomthetrader: ERX
tomthetrader: 50%
tomthetrader: Traders
(11:26 AM) don_2007_: 23.95
tomthetrader: Thank you
(11:26 AM) Fulkdaddy: Oil broke support yesterday...is this a reversion to the mean trade?
tomthetrader: yes
tomthetrader: OIL is undervalued even though technically broken ...
tomthetrader: Oil stocks should rise in any rise in oil
(11:32 AM) les13436: Bought some CAT Jan 2010 55 Calls @.71, seems like CAT just wants to go up.
(11:39 AM) Fulkdaddy: I have been reading that oil is in gigantic supply
(11:40 AM) Fulkdaddy: There is so much of it there is no place to store it...putting pressure on prices
tomthetrader: seems like it should plummet
tomthetrader: stupid trade
tomthetrader: I'll get one right one of these days !
tomthetrader: maybe oil companies will beat lowered estimates ...and maybe demand will pick up in coming months
(11:45 AM) Fulkdaddy: I don't know about that...I just read about the reason for the pressure on prices
(11:45 AM) Fulkdaddy: It could go fill the gap and make you big money!
(11:45 AM) Fulkdaddy: bonds getting crushed on this rally
(11:47 AM) arujunaa: bonds have sold off after the fed buyback. i stopped myself on the last 25% at 122.6875. will look to rebuy later
tomthetrader: Like saying there was a oversupply of chips or widgets ...one hope demand picks up or the companies will adjust and still make money at lower prices
(11:48 AM) arujunaa: sorry dave, didn't see that drive-by coming....
(11:49 AM) Fulkdaddy: bonds seem to be invese stocks with tight correlation here
(11:51 AM) pupster: didn't think Turn Around Tuez would be this strong
(11:51 AM) arujunaa: i'm hearing foreign central bank selling which means it is $ related
tomthetrader: no one did ..except DE !
tomthetrader: He is a BULL
tomthetrader: I pale in comparison ...I thought I was the only Bull alive
tomthetrader: until DE came flying in in November
tomthetrader: CHIPS CHIPS CHIPS
tomthetrader: 46.19 oil up now !
tomthetrader: how lucky !
(12:01 PM) DE_TTT: Thanks for ERX, Tom...bot at 23.97.
tomthetrader: Your welcome
(12:03 PM) azags: I just sold my last 5000 of qld at 30.9
(12:05 PM) azags: I missed erx because I was away from the computer
tomthetrader: ERX you can stop at 20% back
tomthetrader: we may be able to run this
tomthetrader: technically I trade oil futures and saw a possible run coming so I recommendd ERX
tomthetrader: I really miss TIM ...he made me lazy !
(12:09 PM) thomas_Poland: and where is he?
tomthetrader: ?
tomthetrader: Like you ..on a temporary boycott /
(12:09 PM) thomas_Poland: right
(12:09 PM) pupster: CIEN and AMR still a trade...
(12:10 PM) thomas_Poland: you just can't be nice .. can you Tom?
tomthetrader: AMR Long term ...Ciena I have not scanned since Last month dropped off
tomthetrader: SM is a great stock
(12:26 PM) Fulkdaddy: Louise Yamada's webcast is tonight and tomorrow...could not think of a better time to get her views.
tomthetrader: yes ...that will be enjoyable
tomthetrader: how do we get it ?
tomthetrader: last view sub 400 SPX sometime ?
tomthetrader: In the next 10 years ?
(12:28 PM) Fulkdaddy: She said 600 was her target. If it does not hold, then 400...no timeframe
(12:29 PM) les13436: Is there a link for her webcast?
(12:32 PM) Fulkdaddy: link sent to Tom.
tomthetrader: I will mail ..Thanks Dave
(12:34 PM) les13436: Thanks Dave
(12:40 PM) DE_TTT: Thanks
(12:42 PM) redliontrader: TOM - that chart you sent out last night showing %returns from market bottoms - they all seem to gravatate back to 10-15% area before relaunching.. that would put us back to 725-260 area, if my reading is correct this would occur around 1 month from now, the May 20th time frame.. do you think we will see this pullback?
(12:45 PM) Fulkdaddy: feels like a trend day
(12:49 PM) azags: no losses today . I made some dollars on long qld which I now sold. I will go short today at the close if ndx is between 1328-1340. I am also going on vacation tomorrow for a long weekend
tomthetrader: another vacation ..how about something for me ...Disney ?
tomthetrader: we are buying ZF for TRADERS
tomthetrader: going for a quick gain and then moving it
tomthetrader: 1:00pm ZF adding
(1:00 PM) eman11: What % for ZF in Traders - Thanks
tomthetrader: 10%
tomthetrader: will move to IRA on Friday
(1:04 PM) Fulkdaddy: I think that is normal, JR.
(1:04 PM) Fulkdaddy: Volume is in the shape of a bathtub...high at the open and low during the day and high at the close
tomthetrader: I do not see JR !
tomthetrader: Invisible ?
(1:06 PM) Fulkdaddy: He is up about 8 posts
tomthetrader: ERX ...what a play
tomthetrader: amazing timing Dave ?
tomthetrader: I have sources in the oil matket !
tomthetrader: HAL
tomthetrader: we bought for earnings
tomthetrader: acting well
(1:11 PM) Fulkdaddy: Perfect timing on ERX
(1:11 PM) Fulkdaddy: perfect
(1:11 PM) Fulkdaddy: I just read Gartman and he confirmed inventory levels are at historic highs and likely going higher
tomthetrader: That is a longer term possible problem for oil but sure didn't hurt this trade ...can't make money any faster /
tomthetrader: DE's chips are acting well ..took guts to buy USD on the open
tomthetrader: Besides what does Gartman know about commodities !
tomthetrader: Hope all of you understand why we got out of shorts yesterday to reenter into longs in UYG ERX and may go back short on a sell signal
tomthetrader: 1 note ...look at the OEX puts and ISEE and CBOE
(1:29 PM) DE_TTT: Weisel raising EPS estimates on MPWR...don't hear a lot of that these days!
(1:30 PM) DE_TTT: Bullish options data...right, Tom?
(1:36 PM) TTTMichael: USA trades at a 21% discount to NAV.
tomthetrader: Yes ...options for today are very BULLISH
tomthetrader: USA a good long term hold now
tomthetrader: ZF
tomthetrader: ZTR
tomthetrader: all good
tomthetrader: Look at the FinViz .com
tomthetrader: NDD up 23%since I recommended
tomthetrader: all positions up all instituted AFTER the 25% rally was in
(1:42 PM) pupster: bold call....and great reward...TTT...!!!!!
tomthetrader: Hope we all can get back on the same page ..it is much more fun when everyone agrees
tomthetrader: everyone doing a trememndous job
tomthetrader: it is a traders market ..in one account you cpould be up 300% and anpother flat
(1:44 PM) pupster: to date...a very much symmetrical inverse H&S on UYG and if it gets above 3.9-4 ... it projects to 6.5
(1:45 PM) Fulkdaddy: 1:56 is approaching.
(1:46 PM) azags: I missed uyg at the open today at 2.75. I don't have any
(1:46 PM) Fulkdaddy: what are the hedgehogs going to do today Tom?
tomthetrader: BOOOOOOOOO
(1:47 PM) azags: in the premarket it was like 2.67
(1:47 PM) Harrod_t: bought small amount
(1:47 PM) thomas_Poland: we should see new HOD today
tomthetrader: Good Job
(1:48 PM) thomas_Poland: yes for the next 3 days
tomthetrader: 875 ?
tomthetrader: again ..double top
(1:48 PM) thomas_Poland: yes
(1:48 PM) thomas_Poland:
tomthetrader: agree
(1:48 PM) thomas_Poland: just a fraction higher high
(1:49 PM) thomas_Poland: we lost all bulls yesterday
tomthetrader: yes
(1:49 PM) thomas_Poland: now we will loose all bears from yesterday on new high
tomthetrader: yes
(1:49 PM) thomas_Poland: so everybody will be hmm .... forked
tomthetrader: it is all sentiment
tomthetrader: except you
tomthetrader: and TK ?
(1:49 PM) thomas_Poland: hopefully
(1:49 PM) thomas_Poland: TK is nevver forked
(1:50 PM) thomas_Poland: LOL
(1:50 PM) DE_TTT: As I've said before, I thought I was wrong once...but later found out I was mistaken.
(1:51 PM) thomas_Poland: DE ..
(1:51 PM) thomas_Poland: great
(1:51 PM) thomas_Poland: using hammer is hard
tomthetrader: IWM ...A/d THE key
(1:53 PM) DE_TTT:
(1:53 PM) Fulkdaddy: Tom, how are your indicators?
(1:56 PM) nimesh_: why is nasdaq weal today
(2:04 PM) Fulkdaddy: IBM
(2:04 PM) Fulkdaddy: I just reduced my shorts from 25% to 20%
tomthetrader: NEUTRAL
tomthetrader: IBM TELL TO 2011
(2:08 PM) Fulkdaddy: I may have made a mistake here reducing my shorts...looks like market is getting weak
(2:12 PM) redliontrader: R2000 a/d remains very strong better than 3:1, leading the day
(2:14 PM) Fulkdaddy: My timing is impeccable...when I close shorts it is an excellent time to open positions
(2:15 PM) Fulkdaddy: muther....I know this is a G rated room
(2:15 PM) Fulkdaddy: I feel like smashing my keyboard
(2:18 PM) azags: Relax Fulk, if qld comes down more I will buy it again but not yet
(2:19 PM) thomas_Poland: I agree with vector vest worker of the year
tomthetrader: ROLLING OVER
tomthetrader: BUT STILL OK
(2:20 PM) azags: I was offered a vacation to hunt down Thomas, hog tie him and bring him back to the TTT Hedge Fund fold. I will be a bounty hunter
(2:21 PM) thomas_Poland:
(2:21 PM) azags: Thomas make qld go down further so I can buy it
(2:27 PM) azags: A/D line is +1358 on NYSE
(2:27 PM) Alert: LIVE coverage of a congressional hearing on helping the failing newspaper industry in News Talk Online in the Radio/TV Section [Free Video]
tomthetrader: 1.5 HOURS OF FUN
(2:29 PM) DE_TTT: More ERX at 24.23
(2:29 PM) DE_TTT: yes
(2:30 PM) DE_TTT: Also bot TQNT and ALU
tomthetrader: ?
(2:30 PM) DE_TTT: 4g wireless buildout plays...along with ERIC, STAR, PWAV
(2:31 PM) DE_TTT: and CNXT (sort of)
(2:31 PM) DE_TTT: Big Verizon buildout in particular
tomthetrader: nICE
tomthetrader: I wish I could follow those like I used to
tomthetrader: I am jealous
tomthetrader: LOVE this market
(2:32 PM) DE_TTT: I'm the resident tech nerd...though I'm sure there are a few others here who are just a bit more quiet.
tomthetrader: We love you DE ...but you will be so rich you will leave us ! In this Bull
(2:35 PM) les13436: XHB HOD
(2:35 PM) pupster: great look on that PWAV...didn't realize that thing went down yo pennies...looks to wanna go to @ 1.3 - 1.40 from here
tomthetrader: great
(2:36 PM) pupster: pwav definately worth a shot
tomthetrader: this is the time to jump on those penny type stocks will go up 10000%
tomthetrader: HOD
(2:36 PM) les13436: SIRI (XM radio)
(2:37 PM) DE_TTT: Not likely...I like this hangout!
tomthetrader: Good
(2:37 PM) azags: NDX is lagging
tomthetrader: SIRI big de4bt
tomthetrader: RUT up 3% very positive
tomthetrader: got back 3 of 5 %
(2:38 PM) DE_TTT: Thanks for the input, Pup...good to know. Like I said...great hangout.
tomthetrader: UYG ERX
tomthetrader: best plays of the day ?
(2:43 PM) DE_TTT: Itching to buy more MU...but only if it flails late.
(2:45 PM) DE_TTT: IBM at hod
(2:54 PM) thomas_Poland: NQ YM and ES almost at 200 sma resistance
(2:54 PM) thomas_Poland: I guess they will take it in gap up tomorrow
tomthetrader: Taking a short position TF 465
tomthetrader: OK ?
(2:58 PM) nimesh_: tom, is tf a hedge?
(2:58 PM) nimesh_: and is it for daytrade only?
tomthetrader: Just a hedge to protect the ERX ZF UYG
tomthetrader: YES I will sell it overnight
(2:59 PM) nimesh_: ok
(3:03 PM) DE_TTT: GOOG prob affecting QQQQ....it
(3:03 PM) DE_TTT: It's only because of MSFT-YHOO link-up coming...will be a decent competitor. imho, of course
tomthetrader: Look at HBAN daily
tomthetrader: 35% turn around
tomthetrader: TRADERS will be 100% cash on close ..3-1 + A/D is BULLISH
(3:09 PM) Bert_TTT: Does that mean selling ERX ZF and UYG by the close???
tomthetrader: yes
tomthetrader: or they will be put in Main and IRA ...they will be out of TRADERS
tomthetrader: Traders will be 100% cash to TRADE tomorrow
(3:18 PM) azags: If the market stays where it is with Naz 100 over 1329 at the close, I plan to buy again 4 million qid with JR as we did last Friday to pay for my vacation and transportation costs to hunt down Thomas
(3:23 PM) azags: I am playing short term movements. If it is a strong upward naz movement greater than 1339, I would stay long but between 1328 and 1339 I would go short again for short term move.
(3:25 PM) azags: Right now I am in cash since I took profits early today long up at 30.75, 30.8 and 30.9 on the qld. That was this morning
(3:26 PM) azags: I also took tiny profits at 30.21 long when Tom went short at the open
(3:28 PM) azags: It pays for carfare or the morning bus
tomthetrader: QID I will buy 4 million with you
tomthetrader: so that is 3 million QID shares to be bought WHEN ?
tomthetrader: 1339 ?
tomthetrader: NDX ?
(3:30 PM) azags: It is fascinating how bank and financial etfs collapsed this am and then turned around with great profits today. I was not in any of it
tomthetrader: I told you too ?
tomthetrader: I said " Zags" please enter 5 million long FAS after 9:35 am
(3:31 PM) DE_TTT: Indeed, Zags...and now all the bears are worried about WFC and MS tomorrow...tells me they haven't quite thrown in the towel.
(3:31 PM) azags: yes you did
tomthetrader: But you were busy packing with Thomas for vacation
(3:33 PM) azags: I will short if naz 100 closes between 1328-basically 1339. Above 1339 I would stay long
(3:33 PM) nimesh_: sharp selloff
(3:34 PM) azags: Thomas asked me to buy him an estate in Transylvania
tomthetrader: LOL
tomthetrader: OK Guys
(3:35 PM) azags: The castle has to be pink
tomthetrader: TTT Is out ....rehab time ....Little pink castles for you and Thomas
(3:36 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: bye Tom
tomthetrader: Sorry
tomthetrader: !!!!!!
(3:37 PM) azags: Take care Tom. I have to go on vacation to spend some money and help the economy
(3:37 PM) DE_TTT: Enjoy your time away, Zags
tomthetrader: you can call 850 329-6745
tomthetrader: anytime ....all of you 24/7
tomthetrader: good day ...very good
(3:38 PM) azags: Thanks Tom
tomthetrader: Thank you
(3:45 PM) azags: I still would like a good selloff at the close so I could re-establish longs
(3:51 PM) nimesh_: tom, short yahoo?
(3:52 PM) nimesh_: if google sees slowdown, surely yahoo would be worse
(3:52 PM) DE_TTT: BRCM near hod
(3:53 PM) DE_TTT: MSFT-YHOO deal is coming...80% chance, imo
(3:53 PM) nimesh_: DE, makes sense
(3:54 PM) nimesh_: msft can buy it for half the original offer
(3:54 PM) DE_TTT: Yes, and new CEO not so parochial.
(3:56 PM) nimesh_: DE, will that cause q's to go down? msft weighted more, msft down, yhoo up?
(3:56 PM) DE_TTT: Could hurt GOOG the most...so could def hurt the Q's
(3:57 PM) azags: I am close to shorting or selling out of the money naked qld calls
(4:01 PM) DE_TTT: Big tech day tomorrow afternoon...AAPL, EBAY, FFIV, LRCX, QCOM, TQNT, VMW, XLNX
(4:02 PM) nimesh_: de, i think ffiv already warned?
(4:06 PM) nimesh_: de, u think amd is woth buying?
(4:06 PM) pupster: 15 minute SPY hit a high today at exactly the 50% retrace from the 875 highs last week into yesterdays lows.....
(4:06 PM) pupster: may look to wanna go to 857 and after that....a gap fill...?
(4:09 PM) nimesh_: yes, zags
(4:09 PM) nimesh_: u are the qqqq master
(4:14 PM) azags: I tried to buy qid at 40.95 but missed it I also tried to write the naked qld call may 33 at 1.3 but it didn't fill. I may try ah but because I am traveling, I don't want a heavy load
(4:14 PM) azags: Take care
(4:14 PM) Fulkdaddy: 2 minute warning for Louise Yamada
(4:22 PM) nimesh_: amd falling after initial pop
(4:22 PM) nimesh_: same with yahoo
(4:32 PM) DE_TTT: Sorry, nimesh...left for a bit...just wondering if not better to short Q's when others are worried abt shorting in front of AAPL and QCOM tomorrow
(4:36 PM) nimesh_: yea, once aapl is deon, picture will be much clearer
(4:36 PM) nimesh_: i fully expect appl to beat
(4:36 PM) nimesh_: but not sure if it is prices in
(4:36 PM) nimesh_: priced
(4:38 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: yamada presenation is excellent
(4:39 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: https://profunds.webex.com/mw0305l//mywebex/default.do?siteurl=profunds
(5:00 PM) Alert: Should the government help failing newspapers? What then about their independence? Sound off on News Talk Online in the Radio/TV Section NOW [Free Video]
(5:02 PM) Nick_H_SanDiego: we will never see 30x-40x leverage again in our careers, so we need to temper any rally
(5:04 PM) nimesh_: what do u mean nick?
(5:07 PM) DE_TTT: SNDK call: demand stronger than expected and is holding up in April. Raising prices in Q2
(5:11 PM) Alert: ====SECURITY BULLETIN!=======
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(5:13 PM) DE_TTT: SNDK saying all the right things = sell it tomorrow on the pop >16
(5:17 PM) nimesh_: hehe, thanks DE
tomthetrader: thanks
(5:24 PM) Alert: Hi , Welcome to TTT

(5:30 PM) Alert: Should the government help failing newspapers? What then about their independence? Sound off on News Talk Online in the Radio/TV Section NOW [Free Video]
(5:33 PM) DE_TTT: SNDK sees Q2 rev. of 650-725 mil, vs. Q2 consensus of 579 mil and 659.5 mil in Q1.
(5:34 PM) DE_TTT: Next up for SNDK...an equity offering. imho, as always.
(5:34 PM) DE_TTT: I am long, but I prefer to sell on good news!
tomthetrader: yes ...I am hoping we rally into 875 again on worse breadth to short to get this CORRECTION OVER ..very bullish ISE options today
(5:37 PM) DE_TTT: Off to a BBQ...see you tomorrow, Tom. thanks again for ERX!
tomthetrader: YW

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