Hey ,
Had to make some comments today as I am looking over all the blogs and news feeds and having been in a number of recessions and bull and bear markets it always amazes me about the perceptions of people and what they do during periods of crisis. The normal emotion is to "protect" and this is a wise thing for most Americans. The point I would like to get across today is this is 2008 and we are just about to dawn on even a more spectacular period in our history. I certainly agree the markets and our financial systems are susceptible to the BUBBLES of overindulgence and they will continue...to pick this HOUSING /CREDIT BUBBLE and say it is now time to stuff the survival gear in the mattress with silver coins and 6 month supply of canned goods is not appropriate. I have found that times of this nature have been the best times to buy common stock for the 3-5 year time horizon....I want to reiterate my view on the stock market....I am sure were are experiencing a type of BEAR Market but it is a very "Active" time one in which literally millions can be made ....I like to think of these periods like a baseball game between two teams of very high skill but with no time limit ...the players all get tired ..they all start to wear down and even cheat and use steroids or other supplements to get their fix and provide peak performance...did the markets use it up with the GREED OF HOUSING CREDIT ??? Is this the last of the last innings for the Bulls in their quest for continued dominance over the bears ????
We won't know that for years to come but in my field of market forecasting that lasts from a few minutes to 9 months ....we are in very good shape....the longer term past 9 months depends if we get some new players !!! Some rookies in the form of REGULATION and REASON. Politically the markets do not care if it is RED or Blue ...US markets care about the future and right now I have never seen so many pessimists on the state of our country.
I am in the camp of a total revitilization of our infrastructure and major American cities. And a worldwide buildout of the trillions of $$$ we have invested the world over ...Africa Middle east and the BRIC countries and the Koreas will someday be one with a vibrant economy. Will the next couple of years be a mess ..maybe ..but out of the volatility ...there may be a trading opportunity for you and your family ....my message has always been that buy and hold just plain doesn't work ....it is the common sense buying and selling of futures Stocks options that will create real wealth ..having STAYING POWER for the long term ...using methods of hedging to lower risk and to take advantage of this "active phase".
Lower volatility will return and then we will be begging for "action" ...for now it is time to be aggressive and take some chances that the CROWD may be wrong ....My bet is we get out of this mess with our skin on and we will ultimately test those highs .....maybe a big fall before then but I will be there to warn you ....if the crowd gets too optimistic !!!
For now try to use small positions and establish those longs by looking at our portfolio and adding when possible whether it is IRA or speculation !!!! It is time to take part in this market and become part of the wealth creating public...whether for 6 months or hopefully 6 years !!!
Don't fall prey to gathering silver and filling your coffee cans and mattresses with your savings...let's see how the economy bounces back from this ...I look at our 2008 #1 rated stock NUE Nucor and listen to the workers at their plants and that of X US steel and things seem to be good with those folks as their retirements and standard of living is rising ...maybe this may just step over into the rest of the economy...maybe sooner than we think ....things as they say in baseball "aren't over til the fat lady sings" and in my book ( due out in 2009) we are in the 3rd inning of a extra inning game and with the new rookies in the farm club....I want to play this market on both sides for the coming 3-5 years !!!
TTT
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tomandprisha@msn.com
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