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24/7

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24/7

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Tom says (9:11 AM):
Good Morning
Tom says (9:12 AM):
2-26-2008
Tom says (9:12 AM):
Hot inflation data
Tom says (9:12 AM):
not good but market handling it OK
Tom says (9:12 AM):
we are short 1 contract ES from 1360 or so
Tom says (9:13 AM):
I would imagine that could be some support today
aszager says (9:14 AM):
.vix is at lower Bollinger band at 23.03
Tom says (9:14 AM):
yes ....it seems as though we should take one more run at top ???
Tom says (9:14 AM):
before we break down into the teens later into April
Tom says (9:15 AM):
sideways down for a bit could get the animal spirits up
Tom says (9:15 AM):
with hopes of a big collapse that may not come even with the worst of news

aszager is already in this conversation.

Biegs is already in this conversation.

aszager says (9:17 AM):
yet if we get hit hard enough today I would be short term bullish into turn date early in March
Tom says (9:17 AM):
yes Agreed
Tom says (9:18 AM):
we need some downside to get alot of the short term models and charts in place for a decent run up to 1440 area
Biegs says (9:19 AM):
if we try to break higher without first going lower what do you think the ceiling is?
Tom says (9:19 AM):
sentiment has surely done it's job as the public is very bearish ...now after this 7% run off the lows we probably need a 2% drop and then some Buying for those who missed ...or think they missed the bottom
Tom says (9:20 AM):
Biegs : probably not much higher 1375-80 ???

Frank has left the conversation.

Biegs says (9:21 AM):
oh wow, so you really see the market having 0 choice but to go down before we go up... ok. quick "re-test" perhaps
Tom says (9:21 AM):
yes and 1-3% can happen today or tomorrow easy and we will be in good shape
Tom says (9:22 AM):
Int term is looking great ....it is just the short term we have made a good amount of money in a bear market ..the 7% run is a nice gift from the bears
Tom says (9:23 AM):
we need about 1-3% back to make a good long entry ...entering here may be risky short term
Tom says (9:23 AM):
GOOG is dying

Scorpion was added to this conversation. Handwriting is no longer supported because not all participants can view handwritten messages. Handwritten messages will be sent as text.

Tom says (9:26 AM):
9:26 am
Tom says (9:27 AM):
FWLT getting killed pre market as is GOOG
Tom says (9:28 AM):
end of the road or the pause that refreshes ???
Tom says (9:28 AM):
460 GOOG in the sites
Tom says (9:28 AM):
60 bucks in 5 sessions ??/
Tom says (9:29 AM):
yesterday will now be considered a False Breakout by the bears
Tom says (9:30 AM):
as we may ride this down to 1350 at best ...if so we will take our profits and go long
Tom says (9:32 AM):
Silver is looking parabolic .....Gold is toppy ...we are short from 935 so still underwater on our call
Tom says (9:32 AM):
recession hitting GOOG
Tom says (9:32 AM):
AAPL cut in half from its run ??
Tom says (9:33 AM):
should be a horrible day ...be very bullish if we don't tank 100-300 points

Frank has been added to the conversation.

Tom says (9:35 AM):
amazing the market can hang in here
Tom says (9:39 AM):
RUT acting way too well considering
Tom says (9:39 AM):
like yesterday ...I think a lot of people are shocked the market is acting so well
Tom says (9:40 AM):
no one expected 300 ppoints up in 2 days
arujunaa says (9:40 AM):
does that show there are trapped shorts?
Tom says (9:42 AM):
it shows that the bear market has lost its bite for now ...may develop but the reasons for the bear are starting to be resolved so the selling is not as strong ...and the buyers think there is going to be a possible rally
Tom says (9:43 AM):
Greed will take over soon and since bond rates are so low and commodities have to be topping after Winter ...stocks will be the asset class of choice ...for awhile we hope
Tom says (9:44 AM):
XLF up on the hottest inflation numbers in years is really Bullish for financials
Tom says (9:45 AM):
expecting .75 more cut from Fed ???
Tom says (9:46 AM):
Nas +
Tom says (9:46 AM):
very bullish
Tom says (9:48 AM):
alot of people may want to chase up here if we do go up ....I think if we are patient we can get a good entry long a bit later

Rich has been added to the conversation.

Tom says (9:48 AM):
Hi Rich
Rich says (9:48 AM):
Tom
Rich says (9:49 AM):
How are you doing
Tom says (9:49 AM):
Great ...watching the markets fluctuate !
Tom says (9:50 AM):
Waiting For Uncle Ben to liven up the markets for the next few days
Tom says (9:51 AM):
Backlog nearly doubled for FWLT
Rich says (9:51 AM):
What is happening to GOOG?
Tom says (9:51 AM):
DISH down big
Tom says (9:51 AM):
Collapse ???
Tom says (9:51 AM):
a couple downgrades and just a technical collapse
Tom says (9:52 AM):
Is it the end for GOOG ..recession hitting the net
Tom says (9:54 AM):
????? I have no good feelings for AAPL a retailer and GOOG a advertising company ???
Tom says (9:54 AM):
time to turn the tables and buy banks ???
Tom says (9:54 AM):
small banks that may get bought out
Tom says (9:55 AM):
I am developing a list of 20 possible takeover
Tom says (9:55 AM):
Suntrust is very "For Sale"
Tom says (9:57 AM):
RUT +
Tom says (9:57 AM):
Maybe some risk capital sneaking into the smaller caps ....very bullish sign
Tom says (10:00 AM):
wonder why Gold isn't going to $1000 like everyone thought with inflation so high ???
Tom says (10:01 AM):
DOW just got hit with consumer confidence ..down a mere 23 points !!!!
Tom says (10:01 AM):
depression levels
Tom says (10:01 AM):
the consumer is shot !!!!
Tom says (10:01 AM):
after 3-1 + a/d yesterday
Tom says (10:02 AM):
we are flat today
Frank says (10:02 AM):
not to worry, the market will rally on that
Tom says (10:02 AM):
hanging in there
Tom says (10:02 AM):
pretty amazing
Biegs says (10:02 AM):
not sure if anyone watched the grains overnight, wow what a ride
Tom says (10:03 AM):
a month ago we would be down 300 and counting
Tom says (10:03 AM):
Wheat was limit up this a.m. ???
Tom says (10:03 AM):
450 handle 300 off highs for GOOG
Biegs says (10:03 AM):
no...
Biegs says (10:04 AM):
not CBOT wheat anyway...
Biegs says (10:04 AM):
it opened limit up which has been raised to 90 cents
Biegs says (10:04 AM):
stayed there for a few hours, then lost 45 points or so
Biegs says (10:04 AM):
still above yesterday's close but quite a move
Biegs says (10:04 AM):
corn was limit down but reclaimed almost half
Biegs says (10:04 AM):
soybeans down about half limit
Tom says (10:04 AM):
toppy ???
Biegs says (10:05 AM):
def could be time for a pullback... or maybe just bucking weak longs
Tom says (10:05 AM):
Nat gas hit my target I had for April !!!!!
Tom says (10:05 AM):
took 3 weeks to go from 7.8 to 9.2
Tom says (10:06 AM):
New money is flowing into the market
Biegs says (10:06 AM):
the spike down on consumer confidence couldn't maintain any down momentum... bullish
Tom says (10:06 AM):
you can see the sector rotations and new buying
Tom says (10:06 AM):
Very bullish
Tom says (10:07 AM):
very tempted to cover
Tom says (10:07 AM):
as are alot of others ..which is why we see the lack of selling
Biegs says (10:07 AM):
if we move too much before 10:30, we could get faked out, no?
Tom says (10:08 AM):
true ....but on either side ..I say we have a coin toss now ...it would actually be more bullish to get a spike down today
Biegs says (10:08 AM):
right
Tom says (10:09 AM):
Just for technical reasons ..but if they can run them up in this environment ...it has to be a big change in charater
Biegs says (10:09 AM):
market has to decide whether to play in it's value area today or leave it behind for the moon
Biegs says (10:09 AM):
alright here we go for a try
Tom says (10:09 AM):
and if we take off higher we run into all kinds of overbought crud in a bear market
Tom says (10:10 AM):
amazing
Tom says (10:10 AM):
Bears trying to get out and new money MM trying to get in
Tom says (10:11 AM):
again ..if we would have gotten these a month ago ..I have no doubt we would be down 3-400 dow points
Biegs says (10:11 AM):
right. bears are spent. no one left to sell, and the worst is already priced in
Biegs says (10:11 AM):
at least until the first bank collapses :)
Tom says (10:12 AM):
right ...we are definitely pricing in the worst
Tom says (10:13 AM):
The retest crowd has only been right 1 out of the last 5 times
Tom says (10:13 AM):
not a good %
Biegs says (10:13 AM):
maybe they're due?
Tom says (10:13 AM):
but they will get it when it is least expected
Biegs says (10:13 AM):
or maybe this intermediate rally leads to a retest in the spring or summer?
Biegs says (10:13 AM):
right
Tom says (10:14 AM):
Exactly ..probably June
Biegs says (10:14 AM):
get everyone leaning the wrong way again... certainly makes sense
Tom says (10:14 AM):
sell in May and go away
Biegs says (10:14 AM):
only thing is just about all technicians now are expecting a bullish breakout now
Tom says (10:14 AM):
really ?
Biegs says (10:14 AM):
yeah
Biegs says (10:14 AM):
everyone i follow
Biegs says (10:14 AM):
but maybe my guys aren't "dumb money"
Biegs says (10:15 AM):
i get confused on who is smart and who is dumb
Biegs says (10:15 AM):
all i know is i'm not smart
Tom says (10:15 AM):
I don't look at too much TA stuff ....I think that the breakout yesterday may have been a little fakeout
Biegs says (10:16 AM):
def could be. so hard to tell with something like this before a good move has already proven itself
Tom says (10:16 AM):
When looking at charts ....I am not a great finder of facts ..I can see what I want !
Biegs says (10:16 AM):
heh me too. it's taken me 4 years to look at charts and start making more money than i'm losing. and i still blow up from time to time
Tom says (10:17 AM):
going +
Biegs says (10:17 AM):
gold rebounding nicely from 10 pts down overnight. even now
Tom says (10:17 AM):
yes ..I am still short from 935
Tom says (10:17 AM):
they all see more cuts and weaker dollar
Biegs says (10:18 AM):
are you out if we hit highs again?
Tom says (10:18 AM):
Gold ???
Biegs says (10:18 AM):
yes
Tom says (10:18 AM):
975.00 I am out with a loss
Tom says (10:18 AM):
small position
Biegs says (10:18 AM):
i was at the NYC trrader expo 2 weekends ago... I was amazed by how much varying of opinion there is. it was truly split. many saw weaker, many stronger, both at various times during the year
Tom says (10:19 AM):
IMF can now sell their holdings without restrictions so I think they will keep it on the 700 area longer term
Tom says (10:19 AM):
RUT up 3.00
Tom says (10:19 AM):
IWM up !!!!
Tom says (10:20 AM):
Not supposed to happen in a Bear ???
Tom says (10:20 AM):
acting very strange
Tom says (10:21 AM):
sellling is helping the indicators as we aren't losing price while we self correct
Tom says (10:21 AM):
I am hoping this can go on a couple of days ..get the P/C 's up there and then take off for a run to 1400 +
Tom says (10:22 AM):
so it may be dull but never sell a dull market
Tom says (10:22 AM):
I will be out for a walk ....be back in 30 mintues
Biegs says (10:22 AM):
i'll be out to work.. c ya!
Tom says (10:23 AM):
Thanks
Tom says (10:23 AM):
2yr at 2.05%
Tom says (10:23 AM):
Gold goes +++++
Tom says (10:24 AM):
be right back
Tom says (10:24 AM):
Chat Chat Chat ..so I don't have to reboot !!!!!
Tom says (10:24 AM):
or just put in a letter every 5 minutes
aszager says (10:27 AM):
.vix is still low
Tom says (10:27 AM):
yes ...I wonder if there is something brewing
Tom says (10:28 AM):
Fear is going away ..do we need a reminder ??
Tom says (10:28 AM):
I think I am glad I kept the short position
Tom says (10:29 AM):
If I were more than 10% short I would have trimmed in fear of a rise this morning but now I am comfortable short
Tom says (10:29 AM):
for a few days
Biegs says (10:30 AM):
tough call, how do you know we just had a quick move down on the one hand. but on the other hand this whole morning is just consolidation at the top of yesterday's range that?
Tom says (10:31 AM):
well the best way I know is looking at the internals and they are looking pretty good for a Dow down 40
Tom says (10:31 AM):
NH / NL A/D
Tom says (10:31 AM):
TICK TRIN ..
Biegs says (10:31 AM):
intrday or daily?
Tom says (10:32 AM):
acting like it doesn't want to go down but then again ..we are up quite abit on my 3 day RSI
Tom says (10:32 AM):
I like to go 3-13 days on all indicators
Tom says (10:32 AM):
but daily is doing well Flattish
Biegs says (10:33 AM):
it's surely all interesting
Tom says (10:34 AM):
yes it is

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Tom says (10:50 AM):
Gold taking off and now we will probably see a falloff ....as so many are expecting a run up ???
Tom says (10:50 AM):
Crazy stuff
Tom says (10:50 AM):
we will stay solidly NEUTRAL
Tom says (10:50 AM):
as they push a buy program in
Tom says (11:00 AM):
I get the feeling the economy is stronger than we all think
Tom says (11:00 AM):
the IBM news is very bullish
Tom says (11:00 AM):
and they are selling at historic low P/e

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Tom says (11:03 AM):
Looks like we want to go to 1400
Tom says (11:03 AM):
so lets go with it ???
Tom says (11:03 AM):
Or do we have a choice ?

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Tom says (11:07 AM):
the break out was a tell this a.m. when we didn't collapse ...it is a very tough market ...but My gut was to cover the short ...and go into QLD to make a 20% portfolio move ...but with the upcoming eco goods ...I am going to stay put here
Tom says (11:08 AM):
In our trading group we would have been one long on e short and probably covered on the news
Tom says (11:08 AM):
our indicators say we can go up to 1400 but not further ..there you can short or hold and buy long after a dip
Tom says (11:09 AM):
OIL 100 + again
Tom says (11:09 AM):
getting routine
Tom says (11:10 AM):
3.50 gas won't help

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Tom says (11:30 AM):
I did cover our short and got long QLD and SM and bought some leaps for SM
Tom says (11:30 AM):
able to get a good price on QLD with a tight stop
Jerry says (11:32 AM):
covered short, do you suggest I also cover my SPY puts?

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Tom says (11:45 AM):
Yes ...

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Jerry says (11:46 AM):
covered my Jun SPY puts, still have 5% short as insurance if market crashed.
Tom says (11:47 AM):
OK ..looks like we will go to 1400
Tom says (11:47 AM):
got in just in time ...caught QLD at a good price
Tom says (11:48 AM):
should have gone with gut earlier
Tom says (11:48 AM):
we will see
Tom says (11:48 AM):
the sector rotation and money flows are pretty positive but inflation is a problem at all ranges
Tom says (11:58 AM):
wow...this is a textbook case of countertrend rally strength


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TTT READY TO ROLL : LET'S DO IT

Last weekend, we suggested that it was time for investors to decide which team they were backing in this year’s stock market contest. We opined that if you believe the U.S. will find a way to get through the current financial crisis without a banking system failure, then you needed to be looking at the scary down days as opportunities to buy. And while we did not suggest that we were out of the woods or that wouldn’t see new lows in the major averages or even a recession, we argued that with the Fed on your side, the downside risk in the market might be relatively limited.

One week later, nothing has occurred to change our view. Although volatility in the market remains prevalent and is likely to stick around for another couple of months or so, the technicians argue that the major averages are currently in a basing pattern. Sure, stocks pop up or down in response to each and every news story. But, from a big picture standpoint, the bottom line is the risk/reward relationship appears to be improving.

From a short-term perspective, the game is still all about the economy and whether or not we will see more shoes dropping from the credit crisis. For example, Friday’s pyrotechnics made it clear that the worry over the monoline insurance companies remains significant. And of course, this week’s plunges in response to the weaker than expected Philly Fed data as well as oil’s push over $100 showed that any bad news is good for a couple hundred points on the Dow.

However, if we can put aside the day-to-day gyrations in the market and find the time to put a pencil to the valuation numbers, the outlook going forward becomes a lot less scary. Although valuation indicators have proved to be really rotten timing mechanisms, they do help us to determine the likely path the market will take in the future.


Putting a Pencil To The Risk
To be clear, I am not suggesting that historical P/E levels can act as a crystal ball. But, this broad brush approach to determining risk and reward for a given year IS helpful – especially when things get dicey and emotions are running high.

So let’s take a look at the facts on the valuation front. According to Ned Davis Research, over the past 36 years, the median P/E Ratio for the S&P 500 has been 16.4. However, since 1991, this level has actually represented the low end of the range due to the big bull run we’ve enjoyed. And if one removes the spike in P/E’s which occurred in 2002 (which was a result of the bear market), the range of the P/E on the S&P has been between 16 and about 24.

Thus, with a current reading of 17.2, it is clear that we are close to the low end of the range we’ve witnessed over the past 17 years. And since stocks are at the lower end of their valuation range, it should be pretty easy to understand why we are suggesting that the downside risk is limited.

How limited, you ask? Well, unless the credit crisis takes a turn for the worse, it would be logical to assume that stocks could find their way to the low end of the historical range before improving. (Remember, stocks tend to overdo moves in both directions.) So, if we put a pencil to the numbers, we come up with 1300 as the downside risk level on the S&P 500. This would put the market right at the median P/E for the past 36 years and at the low end of the range over the past 17 years. And with the S&P closing Friday at 1353, the projected downside risk at this point would be a hair under 4%.

The key to this type of analysis is to understand that these numbers assume the current crisis does not suddenly get worse. Investors have had a full year to come to grips with the subprime mess and unless another shoe drops, everybody now has some numbers to work with in terms of the total damage. And as such, we can argue that the current levels in the market reflect the bad news that we know about.


What’s The Upside?
And while we’ve got the earnings projections and calculator in hand, we might as well turn this thinking upside down and take a look at the upside potential. For starters, the good folks at Ned Davis Research tell us that since 1972, the P/E on S&P 500 has been below 18 (currently 17.2) fully 57% of the time. And during this time, the S&P has gone up at an average annual rate of 11.2%.

While an average annual return of 11.2% may not sound like much reason to celebrate, let’s remember that (1) the average return for the market has been closer to 10% since 1900 and (2) when the P/E is over 18 and under 21, the S&P has grown at just 5.7%. (And then when the P/E is over 21, the market loses ground at an annualized rate of -2.8%.)

We will admit that trying to identify an upside target in this environment is tough. However, if we stick with the statistical analysis we used to look at the downside potential, we find reason to be hopeful. A P/E reading of one standard deviation above the median has historically been a pretty good indicator of where stocks become overvalued and prices two standard deviations or more above the median P/E has indicated that stocks are very much overvalued.

If the bulls can get their act together, we could argue that stocks might be able to find their way into the overvalued zone. Thus, based on current earnings projections and the overvalued zone being about 22 times earnings, the upside potential would be somewhere in the vicinity of 1725. And given Friday’s close; this means that the “reward” potential would be about +27.5% from here.

So, with an upside potential of +27.5% and a downside risk level of less than -5%, it should be fairly easy to understand why we are currently in the glass-is-half-full camp when looking ahead.

Can things get nasty from here? Undoubtedly yes, because this continues to be a market that is fixated on the news. And given that we’ve got an awful lot of news coming up this week, we will need to continue to be on our toes. But, if we can look ahead a few months, there might just be a reason to smile.

Wishing you all the best for a profitable week ahead,



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Tom

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HOW TO MAKE $11,000.00 In TWO HOURS

Tom says (1:11 PM):
going to try to add 2 contracts of ES Long going to put in a bid at the lows today
Tom says (1:12 PM):
going to add to call positions in the SPY 135 calls
Tom says (1:12 PM):
see if we get filled before I send out a e-mail
Tom says (1:13 PM):
just like last friday ...we may run up into the close and open higher on Monday
Thomas says (1:14 PM):
Tom how do you like KOP?
Tom says (1:15 PM):
way to hot
Thomas says (1:15 PM):
low float, good EPS rating
Thomas says (1:16 PM):
so AXYS
Tom says (1:16 PM):
need to stay with Mega caps for a few weeks
Thomas says (1:17 PM):
and you have good opportunity to buy testosteron AUXL, 50 sma support
Tom says (1:17 PM):
keep those smaller ones on file for late Winter early spring
Thomas says (1:17 PM):
Why mega caps now?
Tom says (1:17 PM):
safety
Tom says (1:17 PM):
safety
Tom says (1:17 PM):
safety
Thomas says (1:17 PM):
still value investing?
Thomas says (1:18 PM):
of dividend?
Tom says (1:18 PM):
for now ..hopefully we will get our turn
Tom says (1:24 PM):
so we fot 1 at 1350 1 at 1340 and 2 at 1330
Tom says (1:24 PM):
Buying in waves Thomas
Tom says (1:25 PM):
up our exposure and add some stocks

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Tom says (1:25 PM):
I like NDAQ again

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Tom says (1:55 PM):
bottom ?

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Tom says (2:04 PM):
anyone getting long into the weekend ????

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arujunaa says (2:06 PM):
i want to. what are your indicators saying?
Craig says (2:06 PM):
I would have bought AUXL at 31.08 on a candlestick buy, but with this morning going crazy I missed it.
Tom says (2:09 PM):
testin a go go
Frank says (2:12 PM):
well, if my trend line drawing is any good, i think the triangles on mas, s&p, and dow broke to the downside so i'm staying in ultrashorts until at least the feb lows get touched
Craig says (2:12 PM):
AUXL is making another candle that is piercing yesterday's candle, which is positive. It closed on the 50 SMA yesterday with a hammer candlestick. I get one later.
Tom says (2:16 PM):
I am getting pretty nice buys signs in here Aruj : looks like the final bottom will be made this week upcoming
Tom says (2:17 PM):
I think the triangle break is a head fake as usual and bears will get mauled by April
arujunaa says (2:17 PM):
i may be early, but i bought QLD again at 68.15
Tom says (2:17 PM):
about 80% of these technical events are frauds
Tom says (2:18 PM):
I got 2 at 1330 ES
Frank says (2:18 PM):
better get my stops in
Tom says (2:18 PM):
and still long QLD and etc....
Tom says (2:18 PM):
adding to longs into what will possibly be the intraday low on Tuesday
Tom says (2:19 PM):
but maybe we are doing it now
Tom says (2:19 PM):
all my indicators are there but now we just need a move up to confirm the Buy signal ..which is tricky in a bear market
Tom says (2:21 PM):
a cascade down now will provide the "numbers" to have a major bottom in ..so it is helpful if we spike down today Monday or tuesday to confirm said bottom is in ....so they will want to shake any stops in here

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Tom says (2:48 PM):
holding

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Tom says (2:55 PM):
Holding
Tom says (2:56 PM):
can we make some $$$ today ???

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Frank says (3:02 PM):
low volume, new york guys left early to beat the snow storm
Frank says (3:15 PM):
aapl getting close to a good buy point to take a chance

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Tom says (3:34 PM):
Making $$$$$

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Craig says (3:36 PM):
Would have with AUXL.........
Tom says (3:39 PM):
I guess my indicators work up 11k in one hour
Tom says (3:39 PM):
people always ask why buy into a weekend ..I tell them we just may rally and be gap up Monday ???
Tom says (3:40 PM):
Has made me a lot of $$$ the last couple weeks

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Tom says (4:00 PM):
No one wanted to buy ????

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arujunaa says (4:00 PM):
i did

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Tom says (4:00 PM):
My indicators got me long at 1330
Tom says (4:01 PM):
Good job ARUJ !!!!!!!
arujunaa says (4:01 PM):
qld 68.20

You have just sent a nudge.

arujunaa says (4:01 PM):
you too. but this ambac stuff could backfire on monday!
Tom says (4:01 PM):
Got a wold rally and called it to the minute almost ...kept saying it would happen ..didn't want to wait
Tom says (4:02 PM):
what a call
Tom says (4:02 PM):
pat pat
Tom says (4:02 PM):
this is a done deal and we are going to the 1444 level
Tom says (4:02 PM):
what a turnaround

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