TTT Talks 2011 INTO 2012

After a tumultuous year that was among the
most volatile on record, the domestic stock markets
survived a sluggish U.S. economy, a spreading
euro debt crisis, and a gridlocked Washington
to end 2011 virtually where they started.
Propelled by a fourth-quarter boost of
11.9%(1), the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial
Average closed the year at 12,217.56, an increase
of 5.6%(1), the third consecutive positive year for
the Dow. The S&P 500, a broader gauge of market
activity, climbed 11.1%(1) in the final quarter
and ended at 1,251.60, almost dead even with last
year’s 1,251.64 close. The technical 0.003%(1) difference
was its smallest annual move since 1970.
The technology heavy Nasdaq Composite gained
7.8%(1) in the fourth quarter but closed at
2,605.16, down 1.80%(1) for the year.
The lack-luster domestic stock markets still
outperformed the major international markets.
The Dow Jones Global Index, excluding the U.S.,
tumbled 16.3%(1) in 2011 while the STOXX Europe
600 Index fell 11.34%(1). U.K.’s FTSE
100 Index dipped 5.6%(1); Germany’s DAX Index
lost 15%(1), its first annual decline since 2008.
France’s CAC 40 dropped 17%(1) and Italy’s FTSE
MIB Index, down 26%(1), was the biggest loser.
Back home, the Federal Reserve (“Fed”)
reduced its forecasts for U.S. economic growth.
It predicted that the economy would grow 2.7%
in 2012, well below its June projections of 3.3% to
3.7%. For 2013, the Fed now expects expansion
of 3.2% down from its previous estimates of 3.5%
to 4.2%. The Fed projected a gain of up to 4% in
2014.
(1) Return excludes reinvested dividends.
For information regarding the indexes cited and key investment terms used in this report see page 6.
2
The Central Bank also predicts that the U.S.
unemployment rate will still be at least 8.5% at
the end of this year, at least 7.8% at the end of
2013 and at least 6.7% to 7.6% by the fourth
quarter of 2014.
There were several bright spots on the economic
horizon. For one thing, the Labor Department
reported that the private sector added
200,000 jobs in December, marking the sixth
consecutive month of gains topping 100,000. As a
result, the unemployment rate dipped to 8.5%
from November’s 8.7%, to its lowest level in
nearly three years.
Another positive note was the report by the
Institute of Supply Management (“ISM”) that U.S.
manufacturing expanded in December at its fastest
pace in six months. ISM’s closely watched
gauge of factory activity climbed to 53.9 in December,
up from 52.7 in November and its best
reading since last June. Scores over 50 indicate
expansion. The trade group also reported that its
index of non-manufacturing or service industries
rose to 52.6 in December from 52 in November,
which was the lowest reading in nearly two
years.
Housing, a vital factor in the economy, is
showing signs of recovery. The Commerce
Department reported that housing starts in
November reached 685,000 units, up 9.3% from
October and the highest level since April 2010.
Building permits increased 5.7% to an annual rate
of 681,000. The agency also reported that sales of
new single-family homes rose 1.8% in November
to a seasonally-adjusted 315,000 units, the
highest total in seven months.
The Conference Board reported that its consumer
confidence index spurted 10 points in
December to just above the level of a year ago.
Consumer spending, however, which accounts
for about 70% of U.S. economic activity, inched
up only 0.1% in November compared with
October, according to the Commerce
Department. Spending was restrained because
disposable personal income was flat in November
after increasing 0.3% in October.
Indications that inflation is slowing came
from the Labor Department report that its consumer
price index was unchanged in November
from October. Deleting volatile food and energy
prices, the index was up 2.7% in November. For
the year to date, the rise was 2.2%, slightly above
the Fed’s preferred range of 2%. The agency also
reported that its producer price index grew at a
seasonally-adjusted 0.3% in November. Removing
energy and food prices, the index was up by just
0.1%.
With U.S. imports declining more than exports,
the trade deficit narrowed to $43.5 billion
in October against $44.2 billion in September,
according to the Commerce Department. Exports
of goods totaled $127 billion in October
against $129.3 billion in September. Service exports
of $51.4 billion were unchanged from the
prior month. Imports of goods came to $186.6
billion for October against $188.8 billion in September.
Imports for services inched up to $36.1
billion from $36.0 billion. U.S. import prices,
which had fallen 0.5% in October, grew 0.7% in
November, the highest increase since April 2011.
Compared with most major market currencies,
the dollar ended 2011 within roughly 3% of
where it began the year. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index,
which measures the greenback against a
basket of other currencies, increased 1.5% in the
year. Hitting a new low in the final days of the
year, the euro closed at $1.2960. The chief exception
to the strong dollar was the yen. Despite
a year of deep trouble in Japan, the yen ended
more than 5% higher against the dollar. Climbing
from 81.25 yen at the start of the year, the dollar
fell to a record low near 75.8 yen in April and
completed the year at 76.92 yen.
Last year was a disappointment for deal
makers, with mergers and acquisitions declining
For information regarding the indexes cited and key investment terms used in this report see page 6.
3
after a strong start, according to Thomson Reuters.
In the first six months of 2011, announced
global deals came to $1.3 trillion, the highest
level since the financial crisis. However, deals
slumped 14% in the second half, bringing the
2011 dollar volume to $2.6 trillion, slightly below
the 2010 figure of $2.66 trillion.
The number of initial public offerings
(“IPOs”) and dollars raised was the lowest since
2009, according to Dealogic. Globally, there were
240 deals, raising $25.3 billion, in the fourth quarter,
the lowest deal volume since the third quarter
of 2009 and the lowest dollar volume since
the second quarter of 2009. For all of 2011, there
were 1,243 IPOs, raising $160 billion, again the
lowest figures since 2009. For the third consecutive
year, the world’s leading exchange for IPOs
was Hong Kong, with $31 billion in deals. The
volume of deals on the Chinese mainland slightly
topped the combined total of Nasdaq and the
New York Stock Exchange.
Based on current earnings estimates, Bloomberg
News reported that stocks on the S&P 500
were trading at a price/earnings ratio of 13.24 on
December 30, 2011. This compares with 11.94 on
September 30 and 14.88 on December 30 last
year. The P/Es for trailing twelve - month earnings
were reported by S&P at 12.96 on December
30, 13.01 on September 30 and 15.01 on December
30, 2010. As we see it, the P/E’s are neither
terribly high nor terribly low. Given present
market conditions, they appear to be in the normal
range as far as valuations are concerned.
The current consensus among Wall Street
research analysts is that S&P fourth-quarter
earnings will climb 8.3% in 2011 to $24.40,
according to Thomson Reuters. In October the
analysts were expecting 15% gains in the quarter.
For all of 2012, the S&P earnings are projected to
increase 10% to $107.20.
Looking to the future, both analysts and investors
were more bullish at the year’s end, with
analysts the most optimistic. Surveyed by Investors
Intelligence, analysts stood at 50% bulls and
29% bears on December 30, a reversal of their
position on September 30, which saw 37% bulls
and 41% bears. At the end of 2011, analysts came
to 56% bulls and 20% bears. Reported by the
American Institute of Investors, their members
totaled 41% bulls and 31% bears on December 30,
32% bulls and 47% bears on September 30, and
52% bulls and 20% bears at the end of 2010.
Since the market had risen since early October,
the increased optimism is no surprise.
They may be right. From August to October, our
sentiment indicators registered a lot of pessimism.
While some of our current indicators still
include some pretty bad numbers, our sentiment
model reading overall is now neutral.
Among our other models, the monetary reading
is bullish. That’s because the Fed has driven
interest rates to zero and is buying securities.
However, we wonder how bullish it can really be
when rates are at zero. As far as the tape is concerned,
we consider the current action quite positive.
It’s difficult to know the tape’s actual
performance because of the distortions caused
by the computer traders who account for more
than half of the volume. There are far more unusual
up and down days than we have seen in the
past. Taking a long view, the tape is acting reasonably
well.
Our stance on the market at this writing is
somewhat bullish and we are about 82% to 83%
long. For our Fund any investment figure over
80% is bullish.

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TTT TODAY

Thursday, March 08, 2012

Thursday's Results In The Wall Street Bucket Shops
#SubscriberNotes have been updated now.
Note: a bucket shop is an unofficial and usually illegal betting operation in which the prices of stocks and commodities are posted and the customers bet on the rise and fall of prices without actually buying stock, commodities, or commodity futures. Today's stock trading has been divorced from its connection to true valuation of securities and is equivalent to a bucket shop operation.

Change From 20 Jan 2009 and 7 Mar 2012 To 8 Mar 2012 (ETF tickers in the table are links to Money Flow charts)
Security Percentage Change From 20 Jan 2009 Percentage Change From 7 Mar 2012 Change in DOW JONES Points
DOW JONES (index) +62.38% +0.55% +70.61
Diamonds Trust (DIA) +62.35% +0.54% +69.08
Ultra Dow 30 (DDM) +157.55% +1.11% +142.51
Ultrashort Dow 30 (DXD) -78.93% -1.10% -141.28
S&P 500 Index (index) +69.63% +0.98% +126.04
SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) +70.09% +0.99% +127.72
Ultra S&P 500 Proshares (SSO) +163.21% +1.98% +254.65
Ultrashort S&P 500 Proshares (SDS) -81.47% -1.95% -250.18
NYSE Composite (index) +59.79% +1.29% +165.04
NYSE 100 ETF (NYC) +60.23% +1.35% +173.67
S&P Smallcap 600 (index) +94.11% +1.17% +149.60
Ultra Smallcap600 (SAA) +194.03% +2.46% +315.47
Short Smallcap600 (SBB) -63.67% -1.39% -178.75
Ultrashort Smallcap600 (SDD) -59.55% -2.91% -372.93
CBOE RUSSELL 2000 INDEX (index) +85.94% +1.31% +167.57
Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) +85.81% +1.30% +166.36
Ultra Russell 2000 (UWM) +170.36% +2.66% +342.03
Ultrashort Russell 2000 (TWM) -60.03% -2.73% -350.36
CBOE NASDAQ 100 INDEX (index) +132.02% +1.12% +144.38
Ultra QQQ (QLD) +359.24% +2.20% +282.68
Ultrashort QQQ Proshares (QID) -47.39% -2.24% -287.21
Midcap 400 Idx (index) +100.87% +1.22% +156.47
S&P Midcap 400 (IJH) +101.49% +1.20% +154.51
Ultra Midcap 400 (MVV) +234.62% +2.32% +298.41
Ultrashort Midcap 400 (MZZ) -88.92% -2.40% -308.00
Greenhaven Continuous Commodity (GCC) +45.89% +0.49% +62.36
AMEX Gold Miners (index) +73.88% +1.18% +151.07
Gold Miners ETF (GDX) · +1.23% +158.43
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shares (NUGT) · +3.77% +483.82
Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X Shares (DUST) · -3.38% -434.25
SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) +95.55% +1.01% +129.45
Comex Gold Trust (IAU) -80.39% +0.91% +117.27
ETFs Physical Precious Metal ETF (GLTR) · +1.04% +133.46
ETFs White Metals Basket Trust (WITE) · +1.75% +225.01
ETFs Physical Swiss Gold Shares (SGOL) · +0.94% +120.78
Ultrashort Gold (GLL) -83.62% -1.93% -247.62
ETFs Silver Trust (SIVR) · +1.36% +174.47
Silver Trust (SLV) +196.21% +1.36% +174.28
ETFs Physical Platinum Shares (PPLT) · +1.63% +208.98
ETFs Physical Palladium Shares (PALL) · +2.06% +263.92
Ultra Gold (UGL) +206.55% +1.91% +245.53
DJ-UBS Platinum Tr Etn (PGM) +66.75% +1.77% +227.54
DB Gold Double Short Etn (DZZ) -82.96% -1.77% -227.71
DB Gold Double Long Etn (DGP) +218.92% +1.93% +247.73
Ultra Silver (AGQ) +100.03% +2.68% +344.52
Ultrashort Silver (ZSL) -94.41% -2.89% -371.17
Semiconductor Sector (index) +109.47% +1.14% +146.34
Ultra Semiconductors (USD) +262.79% +1.16% +149.02
Ultrashort Semiconductors (SSG) -59.57% -1.27% -163.04
DJ U.S. Financials (IYF) +76.63% +0.88% +112.65
Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) +1.28% -1.00% -128.47
Barclays Tips Bond Fund (TIP) +18.83% -0.04% -5.42
Barclays 7-10 Year Treasury Bond Fund (IEF) +7.20% -0.30% -37.88
Barclays Aggregate Bond Fund (AGG) +6.94% -0.23% -29.05
Ultrashort and Short Proshares ETFs
Ultrashort Nasdaq Biotech (BIS) · -3.27% -419.16
Ultrashort Msci Brazil ETF (BZQ) · -3.14% -403.27
Ultrashort DJ-Aig Commodity (CMD) -62.75% +0.07% +9.52
Short Oil & Gas (DDG) -55.68% -0.65% -82.98
Short Dow 30 (DOG) -51.65% -0.55% -70.13
Ultrashort Oil & Gas (DUG) -21.69% -1.22% -156.48
Ultrashort Dow 30 (DXD) -78.93% -1.10% -141.28
Ultrashort Msci Emerging Markets (EEV) -62.77% -4.32% -554.31
Ultrashort Msci Eafe (EFU) -82.80% -4.34% -557.38
Short Msci Eafe (EFZ) -53.31% -2.17% -278.84
Ultrashort Msci Europe ETF (EPV) · -5.39% -692.47
Short Msci Emerging Markets (EUM) -67.95% -2.15% -276.21
Ultrashort Euro (EUO) -21.47% -1.84% -236.27
Ultrashort Msci Japan (EWV) -63.61% -2.59% -333.02
Swiss Franc (FXF) +24.82% +0.89% +114.46
Ultrashort Ftse China 25 (FXP) -52.34% -4.41% -566.05
Ultrashort Gold (GLL) -83.62% -1.93% -247.62
Ultrashort Msci Pacific Ex-Japan (JPX) · -2.89% -370.54
Short Kbw Regional Banking (KRS) · -0.23% -29.08
Short Midcap 400 (MYY) -63.16% -1.18% -151.73
Ultrashort Midcap 400 (MZZ) -88.92% -2.40% -308.00
Short QQQ (PSQ) -65.27% -1.10% -141.85
Ultrashort 7-10 Year Treasury (PST) -42.11% +0.69% +88.71
Ultrashort QQQ Proshares (QID) -47.39% -2.24% -287.21
Short Real Estate (REK) · +0.44% +56.15
Ultrashort Technology (REW) -56.94% -2.33% -299.01
Short Russell 2000 (RWM) -63.67% -1.28% -164.46
Ultrashort Health Care (RXD) -70.41% -2.27% -291.91
Short Smallcap600 (SBB) -63.67% -1.39% -178.75
Short Basic Materials (SBM) · -1.78% -228.55
Ultrashort Consumer Services (SCC) -86.76% -1.82% -233.58
Ultrashort DJ-Aig Crude Oil (SCO) -83.03% -1.03% -131.58
Ultrashort Smallcap600 (SDD) -59.55% -2.91% -372.93
Ultrashort Russell Midcap Growth (SDK) -58.26% -2.73% -350.17
Ultrapro Short Dow 30 (SDOW) · -1.66% -212.54
Ultrashort Utilities (SDP) -28.94% -1.57% -202.10
Ultrashort S&P 500 Proshares (SDS) -81.47% -1.95% -250.18
Short Financials (SEF) -69.01% -0.99% -127.10
Ultrashort Russell 1000 Growth (SFK) -83.70% -2.99% -384.20
Short S&P500 (SH) -54.02% -0.99% -127.38
Ultrashort Industrials (SIJ) -49.25% -2.98% -382.87
Short High Yield (SJB) · -0.83% -106.27
Ultrashort Financials (SKF) -76.90% -1.92% -246.03
Ultrashort Russell 2000 Growth (SKK) -62.60% -3.13% -401.99
Ultrapro Short Midcap 400 (SMDD) · -3.55% -456.00
Ultrashort Basic Materials (SMN) -64.88% -3.25% -416.95
Ultrapro Short S&P500 (SPXU) · -3.01% -386.37
Ultrapro Short QQQ (SQQQ) · -3.35% -430.58
Ultrashort Real Estate (SRS) -54.75% +0.69% +88.12
Ultrapro Short Russell 2000 (SRTY) · -3.83% -491.32
Ultrashort Semiconductors (SSG) -59.57% -1.27% -163.04
Ultrashort Consumer Goods (SZK) -77.42% -1.81% -232.29
Short 20+ Year Treasury (TBF) · +1.03% +132.55
Ultrashort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) -52.05% +2.06% +264.20
Ultrashort Tips (TPS) +184.08% +0.21% +26.87
Ultrashort Russell 2000 (TWM) -60.03% -2.73% -350.36
Ultrashort Russell 3000 (TWQ) · -0.45% -57.88
Ultrashort Yen (YCS) -27.76% +0.95% +121.75
Short Ftse China 25 (YXI) · -2.00% -256.25
Ultrashort Silver (ZSL) -94.41% -2.89% -371.17
Corporate Bond ETFs
Tm Corporate Bond Fund (LQD) +16.52% +0.02% +2.20
Barclays Credit Bond Fund (CFT) +14.94% -0.12% -15.09
Barclays Intermediate Credit Bond Fund (CIU) +10.51% 0.00% 0.00
Municipal Bond ETFs
S&P National Muni Bond Fund (MUB) +9.35% -0.14% -17.54
Intermediate Muni Index ETF (ITM) +10.67% -0.13% -16.70
Barclays S/T Muni Bd (SHM) +2.95% +0.12% +15.77
International Bond ETFs
Emerging Markets Sovereign Debt (PCY) +31.75% +0.46% +59.24
Barclays Intl Treasury Bond (BWX) +17.20% +0.60% +77.26
JP Morgan Em Bond Fd (EMB) +35.69% +0.45% +57.84
Other Bond ETFs
Barclays 1-3 Year Treasury Bond Fund (SHY) -0.26% -0.04% -4.57
Barclays 1-3 Month T-Bill (BIL) +0.04% +0.02% +2.80
Barclays 3-7 Year Treasury Bond Fund (IEI) +5.21% -0.15% -18.94
Barclays Long Term Treasury (TLO) +9.37% -0.88% -113.15
1-30 Treasury Ladder Portfolio (PLW) +4.99% -0.69% -88.28
Barclays Credit Bond Fund (CFT) +14.94% -0.12% -15.09
High-Yield Bond ETFs
High Yield Corporate Bond (PHB) +14.07% +0.27% +34.21
Iboxx $ Hy Corp Bond Fund (HYG) +21.30% +0.78% +99.96
SPDR High Yield Bond ETF (JNK) +28.12% +0.81% +104.61
ProShares Short ETFs
Short 20+ Year Treasury (TBF) · +1.03% +132.55
Short Basic Materials (SBM) · -1.78% -228.55
Short Dow 30 (DOG) -51.65% -0.55% -70.13
Short Financials (SEF) -69.01% -0.99% -127.10
Short Ftse China 25 (YXI) · -2.00% -256.25
Short High Yield (SJB) · -0.83% -106.27
Short Kbw Regional Banking (KRS) · -0.23% -29.08
Short Midcap 400 (MYY) -63.16% -1.18% -151.73
Short Msci Eafe (EFZ) -53.31% -2.17% -278.84
Short Msci Emerging Markets (EUM) -67.95% -2.15% -276.21
Short Oil & Gas (DDG) -55.68% -0.65% -82.98
Short QQQ (PSQ) -65.27% -1.10% -141.85
Short Real Estate (REK) · +0.44% +56.15
Short Russell 2000 (RWM) -63.67% -1.28% -164.46
Short S&P500 (SH) -54.02% -0.99% -127.38
Short Smallcap600 (SBB) -63.67% -1.39% -178.75
Ultrapro Short Dow 30 (SDOW) · -1.66% -212.54
Ultrapro Short Midcap 400 (SMDD) · -3.55% -456.00
Ultrapro Short QQQ (SQQQ) · -3.35% -430.58
Ultrapro Short Russell 2000 (SRTY) · -3.83% -491.32
Ultrapro Short S&P500 (SPXU) · -3.01% -386.37
Ultrashort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) -52.05% +2.06% +264.20
Ultrashort 7-10 Year Treasury (PST) -42.11% +0.69% +88.71
Ultrashort Basic Materials (SMN) -64.88% -3.25% -416.95
Ultrashort Consumer Goods (SZK) -77.42% -1.81% -232.29
Ultrashort Consumer Services (SCC) -86.76% -1.82% -233.58
Ultrashort DJ-Aig Commodity (CMD) -62.75% +0.07% +9.52
Ultrashort DJ-Aig Crude Oil (SCO) -83.03% -1.03% -131.58
Ultrashort Dow 30 (DXD) -78.93% -1.10% -141.28
Ultrashort Euro (EUO) -21.47% -1.84% -236.27
Ultrashort Financials (SKF) -76.90% -1.92% -246.03
Ultrashort Ftse China 25 (FXP) -52.34% -4.41% -566.05
Ultrashort Gold (GLL) -83.62% -1.93% -247.62
Ultrashort Health Care (RXD) -70.41% -2.27% -291.91
Ultrashort Industrials (SIJ) -49.25% -2.98% -382.87
Ultrashort Midcap 400 (MZZ) -88.92% -2.40% -308.00
Ultrashort Msci Brazil ETF (BZQ) · -3.14% -403.27
Ultrashort Msci Eafe (EFU) -82.80% -4.34% -557.38
Ultrashort Msci Emerging Markets (EEV) -62.77% -4.32% -554.31
Ultrashort Msci Europe ETF (EPV) · -5.39% -692.47
Ultrashort Msci Japan (EWV) -63.61% -2.59% -333.02
Ultrashort Msci Pacific Ex-Japan (JPX) · -2.89% -370.54
Ultrashort Nasdaq Biotech (BIS) · -3.27% -419.16
Ultrashort Oil & Gas (DUG) -21.69% -1.22% -156.48
Ultrashort QQQ Proshares (QID) -47.39% -2.24% -287.21
Ultrashort Real Estate (SRS) -54.75% +0.69% +88.12
Ultrashort Russell Midcap Growth (SDK) -58.26% -2.73% -350.17
Ultrashort Russell 1000 Growth (SFK) -83.70% -2.99% -384.20
Ultrashort Russell 2000 (TWM) -60.03% -2.73% -350.36
Ultrashort Russell 2000 Growth (SKK) -62.60% -3.13% -401.99
Ultrashort Russell 3000 (TWQ) · -0.45% -57.88
Ultrashort S&P 500 Proshares (SDS) -81.47% -1.95% -250.18
Ultrashort Semiconductors (SSG) -59.57% -1.27% -163.04
Ultrashort Silver (ZSL) -94.41% -2.89% -371.17
Ultrashort Smallcap600 (SDD) -59.55% -2.91% -372.93
Ultrashort Technology (REW) -56.94% -2.33% -299.01
Ultrashort Tips (TPS) +184.08% +0.21% +26.87
Ultrashort Utilities (SDP) -28.94% -1.57% -202.10
Ultrashort Yen (YCS) -27.76% +0.95% +121.75
ProShares ETFs
Ultrashort Russell 3000 (TWQ) · -0.45% -57.88
Ultrashort 7-10 Year Treasury (PST) -42.11% +0.69% +88.71
Ultrashort 20+ Year Treasury (TBT) -52.05% +2.06% +264.20
Short QQQ (PSQ) -65.27% -1.10% -141.85
Short Dow 30 (DOG) -51.65% -0.55% -70.13
Short S&P500 (SH) -54.02% -0.99% -127.38
Short Midcap 400 (MYY) -63.16% -1.18% -151.73
Short Smallcap600 (SBB) -63.67% -1.39% -178.75
Short Russell 2000 (RWM) -63.67% -1.28% -164.46
Ultrashort QQQ Proshares (QID) -47.39% -2.24% -287.21
Ultrashort Dow 30 (DXD) -78.93% -1.10% -141.28
Ultrashort S&P 500 Proshares (SDS) -81.47% -1.95% -250.18
Ultrashort Midcap 400 (MZZ) -88.92% -2.40% -308.00
Ultrashort Smallcap600 (SDD) -59.55% -2.91% -372.93
Ultrashort Russell 2000 (TWM) -60.03% -2.73% -350.36
Ultrashort Russell 1000 Growth (SFK) -83.70% -2.99% -384.20
Ultrashort Russell Midcap Growth (SDK) -58.26% -2.73% -350.17
Ultrashort Russell 2000 Growth (SKK) -62.60% -3.13% -401.99
Ultrashort Basic Materials (SMN) -64.88% -3.25% -416.95
Ultrashort Consumer Goods (SZK) -77.42% -1.81% -232.29
Ultrashort Consumer Services (SCC) -86.76% -1.82% -233.58
Ultrashort Financials (SKF) -76.90% -1.92% -246.03
Ultrashort Health Care (RXD) -70.41% -2.27% -291.91
Ultrashort Industrials (SIJ) -49.25% -2.98% -382.87
Ultrashort Oil & Gas (DUG) -21.69% -1.22% -156.48
Ultrashort Real Estate (SRS) -54.75% +0.69% +88.12
Ultrashort Semiconductors (SSG) -59.57% -1.27% -163.04
Ultrashort Technology (REW) -56.94% -2.33% -299.01
Ultrashort Utilities (SDP) -28.94% -1.57% -202.10
Short Msci Emerging Markets (EUM) -67.95% -2.15% -276.21
Short Msci Eafe (EFZ) -53.31% -2.17% -278.84
Ultrashort Msci Eafe (EFU) -82.80% -4.34% -557.38
Ultrashort Msci Emerging Markets (EEV) -62.77% -4.32% -554.31
Ultrashort Msci Japan (EWV) -63.61% -2.59% -333.02
Ultrashort Ftse China 25 (FXP) -52.34% -4.41% -566.05
Ultra QQQ (QLD) +359.24% +2.20% +282.68
Ultra Dow 30 (DDM) +157.55% +1.11% +142.51
Ultra S&P 500 Proshares (SSO) +163.21% +1.98% +254.65
Ultra Midcap 400 (MVV) +234.62% +2.32% +298.41
Ultra Smallcap600 (SAA) +194.03% +2.46% +315.47
Ultra Russell 2000 (UWM) +170.36% +2.66% +342.03
Ultra Russell 1000 Value (UVG) +130.50% +1.46% +187.80
Ultra Russell 1000 Growth (UKF) +212.89% +1.09% +139.54
Ultra Russell Midcap Value (UVU) +199.05% +2.83% +363.49
Ultra Russell Midcap Growth (UKW) +269.95% +2.35% +302.06
Ultra Russell 2000 Value (UVT) +122.81% +2.50% +320.70
Ultra Russell 2000 Growth (UKK) +214.85% +2.91% +373.21
Ultra Basic Materials (UYM) +214.27% +3.28% +421.53
Ultra Consumer Services (UCC) +268.62% +1.77% +227.75
Ultra Financials ETF (UYG) +1946.52% +1.82% +233.96
Ultra Health Care (RXL) +104.27% +2.55% +327.87
Ultra Industrials (UXI) +179.51% +2.93% +375.86
Ultra Oil & Gas (DIG) +105.71% +1.18% +152.06
Ultra DJ-Aig Crude Oil (UCO) +357.72% +1.13% +145.02
Ultra Real Estate ETF (URE) +1334.67% -0.75% -95.95
Ultra Semiconductors (USD) +262.79% +1.16% +149.02
Ultra Technology (ROM) +321.89% +2.17% +278.86
Ultra Utilities (UPW) +68.51% +1.05% +135.10
Japan ETFs
MSCI Japan (EWJ) +19.10% +1.72% +221.11
SPDR Russell/Nomura Prime Japan ETF (JPP) +16.28% +1.70% +218.62
S&P/Topix 150 (ITF) +17.49% +1.97% +252.31
Japan Smallcap Fund (DFJ) +31.96% +1.01% +129.90
SPDR Russell/Nomura Small Cap Japan (JSC) +33.13% +0.80% +103.31
MSCI Japan Sm Cap (SCJ) +30.41% +0.83% +106.09
Japan Total Dividend Fund (DXJ) +5.02% +1.94% +249.65
China ETFs, Broad Based
Direxion China Bull 3X Shares (YINN) · +4.73% +607.78
Direxion China Bear 3X Shares (YANG) · -5.84% -749.10
Ftse-Xinhua China 25 (FXI) +63.48% +2.35% +301.30
S&P China ETF (GXC) +88.40% +1.93% +248.25
Golden Dragon Halter Usx China (PGJ) +74.96% +1.88% +241.33
Guggenheim China All-Cap ETF (YAO) · +1.98% +254.20
Ishares Msci China Index Fund (MCHI) · +2.46% +315.51
First Trust China Alphadex Fund (FCA) · +1.78% +228.32
China ETFs, Specialty
MSCI Hong Kong (EWH) +88.60% +1.42% +182.24
FTSE China [Hk Listed] (FCHI) +69.96% +1.90% +243.85
China ETF (PEK) · +2.37% +304.22
MSCI China Small Cap Index Fund ETF (ECNS) · +3.10% +398.57
Guggenheim China Small Cap Index ETF (HAO) +99.40% +2.87% +367.91
China ETFs, Sector
Emerging Indxx China Infrastructure (CHXX) · +2.80% +359.45
Guggenheim China Real Estate ETF (TAO) +91.45% +2.20% +282.22
Guggenheim China Technology ETF (CQQQ) · +1.49% +191.84
Global X China Consumer ETF (CHIQ) · +2.35% +301.27
Global X China Energy ETF (CHIE) · +0.99% +126.83
Global X China Financials ETF (CHIX) · +2.34% +300.09
Global X China Industrials ETF (CHII) · +1.95% +250.89
Global X China Materials ETF (CHIM) · +8.17% +1048.22
China ETFs, Leveraged
Direxion China Bull 3X Shares (YINN) · +4.73% +607.78
Direxion China Bear 3X Shares (YANG) · -5.84% -749.10
Short Ftse China 25 (YXI) · -2.00% -256.25
Ultrashort Ftse China 25 (FXP) -52.34% -4.41% -566.05
China ETFs, Currency
Vectors Chinese Renminbi/Usd Etn (CNY) +3.54% +0.05% +6.27
Dreyfus Chinese Yuan Fund (CYB) +1.44% +0.08% +10.12
Other ETFs
Nasdaq Internet Portfolio (PNQI) +219.82% +1.59% +204.55
DB Base Metals Double Short Etn (BOM) -83.41% -1.75% -224.84
DB Base Metals Double Long Etn (BDD) +142.80% +1.20% +154.05
DB Base Metals Short Etn (BOS) -54.81% -0.85% -109.23
DB Crude Oil Double Short Etn (DTO) -80.87% -0.96% -122.60
DB Crude Oil Short Etn (SZO) -49.13% -0.05% -6.79
DB Crude Oil Long Etn (OLO) +66.67% +1.06% +135.67
S&P GSCI Crude Oil Tr Etn (OIL) +41.90% +0.45% +57.18
DJ-UBS Natural Gas Tr Etn (GAZ) -78.61% -2.27% -291.76
DJ-UBS Energy Tr Etn (JJE) -21.80% +1.17% +150.54
Agribusiness ETF (MOO) +100.62% +1.54% +198.27
Global Agriculture Portfolio (PAGG) +89.88% +1.76% +226.23
Global Clean Energy Portfolio (PBD) -15.49% +2.24% +288.16
DB Agriculture Fund (DBA) +14.33% +0.32% +40.70
DJ-UBS Agriculture Tr Etn (JJA) +34.75% -0.21% -26.39
Rogers Intl Comm Agri Etn (RJA) +23.90% +0.11% +14.33
DJ-UBS Coffee Tr Etn (JO) +28.21% +0.63% +80.56
DJ-UBS Cocoa Tr Etn (NIB) -16.58% +3.16% +405.91
DJ-UBS Cotton Tr Etn (BAL) +94.75% -0.99% -126.73
DOW Jones-UBS Sugar Tr Etn (SGG) +103.48% +0.36% +45.86
DJ-UBS Grains Tr Etn (JJG) +14.14% -0.11% -14.03
DJ-UBS Copper Tr Etn (JJC) +134.78% +0.83% +106.07
DJ-UBS Nickel Tr Etn (JJN) +59.56% -2.79% -358.66
DJ-UBS Tin Tr Etn (JJT) +113.53% +3.24% +416.14
Euro Currency Trust (FXE) +2.45% +0.92% +117.70
Ultra Euro (ULE) +0.04% +1.75% +225.12
Ultrashort Euro (EUO) -21.47% -1.84% -236.27
Ultra Yen (YCL) +10.83% -1.13% -145.25
Ultrashort Yen (YCS) -27.76% +0.95% +121.75
DB Usd Index Bullish (UUP) -15.61% -0.68% -86.74
DB Usd Index Bearish (UDN) +10.04% +0.70% +90.04
Advisorshares Active Bear ETF (HDGE) · -1.75% -224.68
Ultrashort DJ-Aig Commodity (CMD) -62.75% +0.07% +9.52
MSCI Emerging Markets (VWO) +115.61% +2.20% +281.98
Classic ETFs
Market Vectors Biotech ETF (BBH) -74.82% +1.76% +225.54
Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB) +75.39% +1.71% +218.97
Cohen & Steers Realty Majors (ICF) +111.99% -0.65% -83.20
DJ U.S. Utilities (IDU) +28.16% +0.54% +68.80
Goldman Sachs Natural Resources (IGE) +78.43% +1.11% +142.08
Goldman Sachs Technology (IGM) +116.84% +1.15% +147.07
Goldman Sachs Network (IGN) +85.49% +0.94% +120.74
Goldman Sachs Software (IGV) +114.50% +1.44% +185.09
S&P Midcap 400/Barra Value (IJJ) +84.68% +1.18% +151.88
S&P Midcap 400/Barra Growth (IJK) +118.59% +1.17% +150.06
S&P Smallcap 600 (IJR) +93.73% +1.12% +144.10
Small Cap 600/Barra Value (IJS) · +1.05% +135.29
Small Cap 600/Barra Growth (IJT) +104.00% +1.28% +163.83
S&P 500/Barra Value (IVE) +63.10% +0.96% +123.04
Russell 1000 ETF (IWB) +73.43% +0.92% +117.65
Russell 1000 Value ETF (IWD) +60.98% +0.90% +115.29
Russell 1000 Growth ETF (IWF) +86.72% +1.05% +135.28
Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) +85.81% +1.30% +166.36
Russell 2000 Value ETF (IWN) +68.85% +1.09% +139.54
Russell 2000 Growth ETF (IWO) · +1.49% +191.69
Russell Midcap Growth ETF (IWP) +111.33% +1.23% +158.38
Russell Midcap ETF (IWR) +98.92% +1.15% +147.16
Russell Midcap Value (IWS) +86.82% +0.96% +123.59
Russell 3000 ETF ETF (IWV) +74.60% +1.00% +127.78
Russell 3000 Value ETF (IWW) +61.33% +0.95% +121.42
Russell 3000 Growth ETF (IWZ) +87.98% +1.10% +141.21
S&P Global Energy ETF (IXC) +54.42% +1.31% +167.99
S&P Global Financial ETF (IXG) +65.01% +2.39% +306.48
S&P Global Healthcare ETF (IXJ) +37.82% +1.42% +182.53
S&P Global Technology ETF (IXN) +96.82% +1.26% +161.89
S&P Global Telecommunications ETF (IXP) +25.45% +1.23% +157.40
DJ U.S. Consumer (IYC) +102.49% +0.94% +120.08
DJ U.S. Oil And Gas Fund (IYE) +63.26% +0.59% +75.44
DJ U.S. Financial Services (IYG) +82.64% +1.59% +204.08
DJ U.S. Health Care (IYH) +47.40% +1.25% +160.23
DJ U.S. Industrials (IYJ) +81.37% +1.42% +182.25
DJ U.S. Consumer Goods (IYK) +64.81% +1.02% +130.81
DJ U.S. Basic Materials Index (IYM) +105.55% +1.59% +204.07
DJ U.S. Real Estate (IYR) +101.30% -0.23% -29.77
DJ Transportation Average (IYT) +73.91% +1.46% +186.91
DJ U.S. Technology (IYW) · +1.08% +138.09
DJ U.S. Total Market (IYY) +74.75% +0.98% +125.99
DJ U.S. Telecommunications (IYZ) +45.61% +0.73% +93.11
Morningstar Large Core (JKD) +63.16% +1.09% +140.01
Morningstar Large Growth (JKE) +94.57% +1.29% +165.72
Morningstar L V I (JKF) +43.75% +0.53% +68.50
Morningstar Mid Core (JKG) +107.25% +1.37% +175.29
Morningstar Mid Growth (JKH) +113.53% +1.17% +150.03
Morningstar Mid Value (JKI) · +1.33% +170.42
Morningstar Small Core (JKJ) +104.25% +1.33% +170.60
Morningstar Small Value (JKL) +103.71% +1.24% +159.42
Midcap Spdr (MDY) +101.25% +1.15% +147.00
NYSE Composite (NY) +49.27% +1.02% +131.24
S&P 100 ETF (OEF) +62.80% +0.87% +112.30
Market Vectors Oil Services ETF (OIH) -36.90% +1.92% +246.05
Fidelity Nasdaq Composite (ONEQ) +105.11% +1.11% +142.87
S&P Equal Weight ETF (RSP) +103.33% +1.20% +153.59
Market Vectors Semiconductor Et (SMH) +107.85% +0.92% +117.60
SPDR Fund - Basic Industries (XLB) +72.21% +1.67% +213.78
SPDR Fund - Energy Sector (XLE) +68.54% +0.81% +104.57
SPDR Fund - Financial (XLF) +82.80% +0.96% +122.85
SPDR Fund - Industrial (XLI) +77.51% +1.43% +183.29
SPDR Fund - Technology (XLK) +102.72% +1.01% +129.44
SPDR Fund - Consumer Staples (XLP) +47.09% +0.69% +89.12
SPDR Fund - Utilities (XLU) +23.35% +0.32% +40.44
SPDR Fund - Health Care (XLV) +42.82% +1.11% +142.96
SPDR Fund - Consumer Discretionary (XLY) +125.41% +1.02% +130.48
300% Leverage Bear ETFs
Direxion Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares (SOXS) · -4.31% -553.12
Direxion China Bear 3X Shares (YANG) · -5.84% -749.10
Direxion Daily Agribusiness Bea (COWS) · -5.40% -692.58
Direxion Daily Basic Materials (MATS) · -4.48% -575.17
Direxion Energy Bear 3X Shares (ERY) -79.19% -1.61% -207.28
Direxion Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ) -97.14% -2.70% -347.22
Direxion Daily Healthcare Bear (SICK) · -4.04% -518.49
Direxion Real Estate Bear 3X Shares (DRV) · +1.28% +164.27
Direxion Semiconductor Bear 3X Shares (SOXS) · -4.31% -553.12
Direxion Technology Bear 3X Shares (TYP) -86.50% -3.23% -414.50
Direxion China Bear 3X Shares (YANG) · -5.84% -749.10
Developed Markets Bear 3X Shares (DPK) -73.70% -6.51% -835.65
Direxion Emerging Markets Bear 3X Shares (EDZ) -87.04% -6.40% -822.14
Direxion Latin America Bear 3X Shares (LHB) · -5.55% -712.57
Direxion Daily Russia Bear 3X S (RUSS) · -7.88% -1011.16
Direxion 10-Yr Treasury Bear 3X Shrs (TYO) · +0.89% +113.65
Direxion 30-Yr Treasury Bear 3X Shrs (TMV) · +2.99% +383.34
Ultrapro Short S&P500 (SPXU) · -3.01% -386.37
300% Leverage Bull ETFs
Direxion Semiconductor Bull 3X Shares (SOXL) · +4.26% +546.94
Direxion China Bull 3X Shares (YINN) · +4.73% +607.78
Direxion 10-Yr Treasury Bull 3X Shrs (TYD) · -0.97% -124.38
Direxion 10-Yr Treasury Bear 3X Shrs (TYO) · +0.89% +113.65
Direxion 30-Yr Treasury Bull 3X Shrs (TMF) · -3.02% -387.20
Direxion 30-Yr Treasury Bear 3X Shrs (TMV) · +2.99% +383.34
Direxion Large Cap Bull 3X Shares (BGU) +204.86% +3.06% +393.01
Direxion Large Cap Bear 3X Shares (BGZ) -71.55% -3.10% -398.54
Direxion Mid Cap Bull 3X Shares (MWJ) -2.40% +3.21% +411.64
Direxion Mid Cap Bear 3X Shares (MWN) -71.23% -3.42% -438.56
Direxion Small Cap Bull 3X Shares (TNA) +154.79% +3.93% +504.25
Direxion Small Cap Bear 3X Shares (TZA) -70.45% -4.05% -519.50
Direxion Energy Bull 3X Shares (ERX) +83.81% +1.60% +205.96
Direxion Energy Bear 3X Shares (ERY) -79.19% -1.61% -207.28
Direxion Financial Bull 3X Shares (FAS) +620.23% +2.63% +338.05
Direxion Financial Bear 3X Shares (FAZ) -97.14% -2.70% -347.22
Direxion Technology Bull 3X Shares (TYH) +31.11% +3.21% +411.99
Direxion Technology Bear 3X Shares (TYP) -86.50% -3.23% -414.50
Developed Markets Bull 3X Shares (DZK) +18.53% +6.28% +806.21
Developed Markets Bear 3X Shares (DPK) -73.70% -6.51% -835.65
Direxion Emerging Markets Bull 3X Shares (EDC) +233.18% +6.35% +815.11
Direxion Emerging Markets Bear 3X Shares (EDZ) -87.04% -6.40% -822.14
Ultrapro S&P 500 (UPRO) · +3.00% +384.98
Ultrapro Short S&P500 (SPXU) · -3.01% -386.37

NEW SPECIALS FOR PROFESSIONAL TRADERS

For those whom need more than a blog , please go to http://www.ttthedge.com for all the services and professional options. For Blog updates on my plays each week you can join below. I try to update when I can and after 36 years...when I talk...people listen. TOP will be retested ...join TTT HEDGE FOR THE RALLY

Tom

BUY SPXU AND SQQQ

A Remarkable Run



From a number of different perspectives, the market environment we're in now is remarkable.



At various points in the past six weeks, the broader market has shrugged off bouts of extreme sentiment, negative seasonality, egregiously negative breadth divergences and a host of negative price patterns.



This stretch is similar to several others we've seen since the 2009 bear market low.



If we levitate again tomorrow, then the S&P 500 will have enjoyed 50 consecutive days without closing below its 20-day moving average.

In April 2010 the streak lasted 49 days.

In November 2010 the streak lasted 52 days.

In January/February 2011 the streak lasted 40 days, but there was only 1 close below the 20-day. Ignoring that, the streak lasted 57 days.

So we're bumping up against the max number of days buyers were able to sustain the streak.



In addition, as of Tuesday the S&P had managed to eek out 35 positive closes during the past 50 days. The index also reached 35 positive out of 50 trading days on 01/11/10, 4/19/10 and 2/10/11, indicated by the red arrows in the chart to the right.



The last two also coincided with long streaks above the 20-day average as noted above. All three of them saw the market top out almost immediately.

THE POLITICS OF RECOVERY

PLEASE JOIN TODAY FOR INSTANT MARKET VIEWS OF THE TOP FORECASTER SINCE 1982



The Commerce Department said Friday that new-home sales fell 0.9 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 321,000 homes. That followed four straight months of gains in which home sales rose 10 percent. The gains came after the government upwardly revised October, November and December's figures. December's annual sales pace of 324,000 was the highest in a year. Even with more sales, just 304,000 new homes were sold in 2011 -- the fewest on records dating back to 1963. And new homes are selling well below the 700,000-per-year rate that economists equate with healthy markets. But - not to worry just read Bloomberg as they reported the figures this way "Purchases of new homes in the U.S. exceeded forecasts in January after climbing a month earlier to a one-year high, more evidence the housing market is stabilizing. " graphs - RTTNews



The National Association of Realtors said on Wednesday existing home sales increased 4.3 percent to an annual rate of 4.57 million units last month, the fastest pace since May 2010. Sales were up across all four regions of the country, with the West recording the biggest gain -- an 8.8 percent increase.




As a result of ongoing geopolitical tensions (e.g. Iran) as well a spotty but generally improving global economy, the price of crude oil continues to trend higher. Since the end of September, the cost of one barrel of crude oil has increased by over $30. With oil prices trending higher, it is not all that surprising to find that gasoline prices are following suit. The average US price for a gallon of unleaded is up $1.87 per gallon since the financial crisis low. Over the past two months, gasoline prices have resumed their upward trend with an increase of $0.35 per gallon. There a couple points of interest from today's chart. For one, Middle East crises are often associated with major swings in the price of gasoline. Also, gasoline price spikes have often occurred prior to an economic downturn. In the end, gasoline prices have rarely been higher than current levels and considering the fragility of the current global economy, gasoline/oil prices are something to watch going forward.



This past week's top sectors.





This past week's indices - the small caps were slightly lower.



The monthly cash charts show that at the moment we are sitting at the high for the month across the board after a 5-month climb, except for oil which took a 2-month breather. The NASDAQ has broken above its multiyear highs while the Dow having broken last year's high is still under the high from 2007. The general market volume has not increased significantly and most traders look to volume as a demonstration of strength so are still treating this excellent rally as questionable so have missed much of these gains. Perhaps if the S&P 500 will move over last year's high and some volume will come in it will encourage more buying. You can see however that it's top Bollinger band is at 1425 and if reached may put at least a short-term stop to the rally. Oil is reaching its high from last year which is also right at the top Bollinger band at $115.



By midweek as seen on this 60 min chart, the indices had dropped to the lower Bollinger band as seems to happen every week, and became a good buying opportunity as they all then ran to the top Bollinger bands.



The monthly Dow chart a little bit longer term overview to show the look of the breakout so far and the declining volume each month.



The daily chart with RSI at 62 so not overbought and the top Bollinger band is at 13,179.



This 10 minute renko chart shows the morning dip on Thursday and the rise from about 9:30 and then the range the following day.



This Dow futures chart having short term Fibonacci projections on the right shows it has remained above the 161.8% projection. It now has at least a 60% chance of reaching the longer term 127.2% which is at 13,313.



This shorter term Dow futures chart with Fibonacci projections as shown. So the next trade above that 13,000 level may run right up to the 161.8% as shown.



Understandably with the rise in gasoline prices the transports have been falling this past week.



There was some movement into utilities this week as they bounced on Friday but are still contained in this range established in November.



The NASDAQ monthly also shows, decreasing volume though RSI is just at 63 and when it reached a high in 2007 RSI was over 70. Note that the histogram has just turned positive



The weekly chart with its 12 point gain.



On the NASDAQ 60 min chart there was a very brief touching or crossing of the moving averages but they remain on a buy and now one can use this lower channel trendline as a cautionary stop.



You may remember that the NASDAQ summation index is not terribly fast to respond so can have some whipsaws but do note that despite the new highs this week they have crossed over which is a warning and must be reversed pretty soon as often these crossovers can result in multi-week or month moves.



The past week it was a short one and there wasn't a big gain in the and this is but noticed that the number of new highs as shown on this moving average have not really increased in the past week. On the positive side the number of new lows have also not increased.



The NASDAQ 100 futures having broken above the 2600 level now has short term Fibonacci projection levels as shown.



Being a short term 15 min chart the moving averages can be a volatile but note that on Thursday the crossover came as the price moved above the downtrend line which worked out for a short term gain as it is inside this up trending parallel channel.



VIX again closed lower ending the week at 17.31.



The semiconductor index in a pretty tight range moving up and down closed down less than 2% remains above the trendline.



The New York stock exchange index on the top continued higher though in the bottom we see the number of new highs minus new lows have not turned back up significantly.



85% of all stocks on the New York stock exchange are now trading over their 50 day moving average.



The S&P 500 lazy the chart shows the price level back up to 2011 highs with the weekly RS I at 63. It is been a good run since did by at 1208. We updated the point gains from the summer of 2009 and generally the moves have been all along enough in duration that there was only one losing trade and the total amount is about 725 points or $36,000 per contract.



Last week two weeks ago we saw a test of the lower parallel channel trendline and again this week as well and the close was just at or under it. If we don't get a rally soon it will remain under it which doesn't necessarily mean a big drop but is a caution when it moves out of a channel. It's been in for two months.



This S&P 500 ultra long from our stock charts public page can also be used as an general market indicator even if you don't trade it. Watching the parallel channel trend lines and moving averages crossovers can spot the net potential points to take profits or to reverse trades.



On the ultra short side this would be a long trade if we do get a decent pullback.



As we saw with the Dow futures here the S&P 500 futures with some short term Fibonacci projections overhead that would come into play with a close over 1370.



A longer view of the monthly Russell 2000 chart and its three month in-a-row gains and about 42 points to go to get back to the all-time high.



The daily chart shows the tight range it is been in and overhead resistance.



And this Russell 60 min chart shows the February range.



The banking index has also been a non-starter lately had now is back close to its 20 day moving average.



With the price of gas going higher it was rather expected that retail may start some declines as we have often heard retailers speak of lower sales during times of high gasoline prices.



The Dow Jones world stock index gained two. One percent this week closing very near the underside of this formerly broken trendline which may provide resistance now.



The FTSE did gain half a percent this week and is a bit above the recent range but has yet to break this significantly.



The Shanghai exchange remained strong adding 3 1/2% this week making clearly above the more recent congestion and taking RSI back over 50. This is a positive move for the other markets in general with resistance now at the 50 week EMA which is near the top Bollinger band.



A little bit lower than the 50 week EMA above is the 200 day EMA at 2483 and this may give resistance as it did last summer. RSI on the daily chart is very near to 70.



We have often shown with stocks that as they approach a moving average and may have trouble breaking over it. They instead use the trick of just gapping up over resistance. We can see that our commodity ETF did just that this week, gapping over the 200 week EMA and closing the week up 3.9% on increased volume.



Crude oil which last week closed just act the downtrend line ran over at closing at $109. If it can hold the trendline been the logical first target will be the $114 level from last year.



This is a closer view on the weekly chart of oil. It is above the top Bollinger band but if it takes a bit of time it can push-up the bands like it did last year starting in late February. It does however need higher value as it had last time.



Here a gold futures chart with short term Fibonacci levels on the right and also the Fibonacci retrace levels from that 2011 high with the 78.6% retrace at 108, which may also give intermediate resistance.



Natural gas made that low six weeks ago with a quick test the following week as RSI had gone under 30 for a longer-term position this area is logical as the stop is nearby and if it is the start of the longer-term reversal obviously would be a good entry point. The histogram is only slightly negative and with only a little movement higher we will see a MACD crossover.a



Gold Closed above the 1767 resistance and now has it at 1804.



Here just a closer view of that gold. Of those gold levels.



On this gold futures chart you see the close just under the 61.8% retracement level.



Shorter-term gold futures shows the move to the 127.2% projection which gave enough resistance that it's been consolidating below that level. A close back above their could take it to the 161.8% as shown.



This gold ETF closed right at that top parallel channel line with some increase in volume but not is much as earlier in the year.



The GDX candlestick 60 min chart dropped below its 20 day MA but has held above the 50. Though this is short term as the Williams indicator above and the RSI indicator below their top lines.



As you know the GTX mechanical had shifted back to buy and each time when the signals change. We hope the trend lasts so we don't have whipsaws which eats away at the buildup gains and less we are taking partial profits. Along the way.



The silver monthly chart just points out the close right at resistance levels. However you'll note this move in the last couple of months has kept RSI above 50 and has moved the Williams indicator from just slightly below.



The silver futures chart with a break above the downtrend line but remains still under horizontal resistance. A close above 36 would then give a better than even odds that it will move to the 127.2% Fibonacci projection at $38.37.



It would be nice if silver does break above those levels as there is at least a six dollar gained now on our mechanical silver trade which went long at the turn of the year.



Last week copper looked cautionary as it closed below its 50 week EMA though it did put in a good 3.5% bounce this week.



Platinum however did break cleanly above resistance rising 5.3% this week.



Palladium was up 3.5% but it has not broken to new highs of the year. Do note that it did have increased volume this week.



The euro futures continued a rally closing above the 50% retracement towards its high from last October. It is now near the downtrend line worth watching for a break or a failure there.



If the US dollar were to rally the market may decline. Note that the Williams indicator is now below 80 and in past rallies it was at a similar location. Also notice that RSI though is at 37 and in the past it went below or near 30 before some major rallies. The dollar closed at 78.35 which is one penny under the earlier low this year which started a small rally. The other price to note is 78, as that is the 200 day EMA.



And the daily dollar futures charts looking quite week though Williams is oversold but RSI not so much. It is however just now under the lower Bollinger band. So watch as mentioned above for any quick trips to 78 is that may be a short term balance area.





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