NEW BUY SIGNAL PROPELS TTT TO NEW HIGHS

Tom says (2:02 PM):
OK ???
Tom says (2:02 PM):
Everyone in the pool ???
Tom says (2:03 PM):
OK ???? 12 minutes
Tom says (2:03 PM):
Lay you bets down
Tom says (2:04 PM):
I am bullish ???
Tom says (2:04 PM):
I was the only one a week ago calling for 100 last week ...and now it is concensus ????
Tom says (2:04 PM):
Now I am feeling naked
Tom says (2:05 PM):
with a bad feeling they go .50 and go 100 discount and it confuses the market
Tom says (2:05 PM):
so you could buy short here and play the fall
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:05 PM):
boo...
Frank says (2:05 PM):
i would say don't trade the first reaction
Tom says (2:05 PM):
correct
Thomas says (2:06 PM):
trade the third
Tom says (2:06 PM):
the knee jerk is usually wrong and the 2nd is right ..even if it reverses
Frank says (2:06 PM):
bet we see some nice whip saws!
Thomas says (2:06 PM):
which is in direction of the first wave
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:06 PM):
it seems like they're getting more and more drastic, any reason why they wouldn't go a full percent?
Thomas says (2:06 PM):
I always thought it is abc move
Thomas says (2:06 PM):
after FEd
Frank says (2:06 PM):
aruj: whats priced in?
Tom says (2:06 PM):
yes ..you are right I am counting the A move now
Thomas says (2:07 PM):
so you think we will go higher today ?
Thomas says (2:07 PM):
after move down?
Tom says (2:07 PM):
yes
arujunaa says (2:07 PM):
90% of 100
Tom says (2:07 PM):
we can buy the dip
Frank says (2:07 PM):
thanks
arujunaa says (2:07 PM):
frank, you still think another investment bank goes?
Frank says (2:07 PM):
ttt...you have no puts?
Tom says (2:07 PM):
was 120% yesterday
Frank says (2:08 PM):
absolutely, maybe a bank first
Thomas says (2:08 PM):
Tom did you buy VIX calls?
Tom says (2:08 PM):
LEH and GS gave a performance today
Tom says (2:08 PM):
Investment banks can't fold now ...
Tom says (2:08 PM):
impossible
Frank says (2:08 PM):
ok
Tom says (2:08 PM):
but a regular bank can
arujunaa says (2:09 PM):
nothing is impossible
Tom says (2:09 PM):
well if the fed goes under
Tom says (2:09 PM):
right
Thomas says (2:09 PM):
Tom any hedge you have?
Tom says (2:09 PM):
no hedges
Tom says (2:09 PM):
adding the IB's to the FED reserve limits risk 99.99%
Tom says (2:10 PM):
they just used BSC as the poor bad boy
Tom says (2:10 PM):
we are all in trouble if the Fed goes down
Tom says (2:10 PM):
Here comes the VIX trders
Frank says (2:11 PM):
LEH from 20 yesterday to 43 today
Tom says (2:11 PM):
WOW !!!!!!!
Tom says (2:11 PM):
Going to puts on VIX
Tom says (2:11 PM):
Fast money
Tom says (2:11 PM):
fast market
Frank says (2:11 PM):
think of the gains in mar 20 calls
Tom says (2:12 PM):
LEH came through with earnings like GS
Tom says (2:12 PM):
what id the fed says they will take all mortgage paper and only ease .50 ????
Tom says (2:12 PM):
That is my bet
Tom says (2:12 PM):
IF
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:13 PM):
I feel like I want to sell everything right now and just go into cash.
Thomas says (2:13 PM):
chub I did so
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:13 PM):
some scary shizzz
Tom says (2:13 PM):
Fed will say they are buying all outstanding mortgages to market and sell .50 the market will tank and then Rocket
Tom says (2:13 PM):
Good Chubs BUY BUY BUY !!!!!!!

chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:14 PM):
buy what?? :-O
Thomas says (2:14 PM):
anything
Thomas says (2:14 PM):
bread butter
Thomas says (2:14 PM):
:)
Tom says (2:14 PM):
Just saying when you feel like selling BUY ..in panics like this ..you will make millions
Frank says (2:14 PM):
.75
Tom says (2:14 PM):
.75
Tom says (2:14 PM):
on both
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:14 PM):
that's what they said?
Thomas says (2:14 PM):
good
Tom says (2:14 PM):
.25 from the other day
Thomas says (2:15 PM):
we tank
Tom says (2:15 PM):
Buy this selloff
Frank says (2:15 PM):
nay, market will be up 400 today
Tom says (2:16 PM):
wanted some ammo
Frank says (2:16 PM):
2 decenting votes, thats new
Tom says (2:16 PM):
always had 1
Tom says (2:16 PM):
now 2
Tom says (2:16 PM):
giving back 33%
Tom says (2:17 PM):
Vix calls would have worked
Tom says (2:17 PM):
1.45
Tom says (2:17 PM):
1.10
Frank says (2:17 PM):
the adict is in the corner spinning, he doesn't know what to do
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:18 PM):
where are you getting this info? CNBC?
Tom says (2:18 PM):
ramping up
Tom says (2:18 PM):
yes
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:18 PM):
can't find anything current on the internet.
Tom says (2:18 PM):
wsj.com
Tom says (2:19 PM):
playing chjicken with the markets and the FED is winning
Tom says (2:19 PM):
C wave up Thomas
Frank says (2:19 PM):
i have live news feed from ameritrade
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:20 PM):
wow that was a quick run back up.
Tom says (2:20 PM):
Tom says (2:15 PM):
Buy this selloff
Tom says (2:20 PM):
repeat
Tom says (2:20 PM):
didn't want to break new historical
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:20 PM):
haha, only had 4 minutes to act on it, Tom. :)
Tom says (2:20 PM):
precedents
Tom says (2:21 PM):
I picked up some at 12175
Frank says (2:21 PM):
.75 didn't tank the dollar
Tom says (2:21 PM):
Not official ..trust $$$$
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:22 PM):
impressive.
Tom says (2:22 PM):
$ OK
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:22 PM):
I'm surprised we're not 200 down...
Tom says (2:22 PM):
good statement
Tom says (2:22 PM):
like I had mentioned earlier
Tom says (2:23 PM):
OK ..I have a conference call with LM ..be back at 3:00pm
Tom says (2:23 PM):
Thanks
Tom says (2:23 PM):
TTT Out for a bit

Rich has left the conversation.

Frank says (2:25 PM):
chub...you still have QLDGP?
Frank says (2:26 PM):
bid 5.4, ask 9.5. thats an incredible spread
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:26 PM):
yeah, I didn't know that TTT got out.
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:26 PM):
I'm pretty good with keeping up on the boards too...
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:27 PM):
2 contracts, bought @ 7.5.
Frank says (2:27 PM):
now 6.6, 8.2 with 0 volume
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:27 PM):
on Tuesday, QLDGP's spread was 6.1 bid, 11.10 ask... crazy.
Frank says (2:27 PM):
i don't like illiquid options
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:28 PM):
Yeah, I wanted to get out on Tuesday, but I didn't want to take a loss on it.
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:28 PM):
especially with the ask at 11.10.
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:29 PM):
just gonna make it one of my cores along with the June spy call...
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:29 PM):
hopefully it'll all pan out.
Frank says (2:29 PM):
taken my ultras off
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:30 PM):
I was wondering Frank, how do you have all this money in your IRA but little in your regular trading account?
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:30 PM):
did you start your IRA super early?
Frank says (2:31 PM):
1984
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:31 PM):
Haha, I guess "super early" is very subjective... I was 4 when you started it.
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:31 PM):
so 2x ETF's are all you do?
Frank says (2:32 PM):
but i'm up 50% since november last year
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:32 PM):
yeah, you were bearish at the right time, tip my hat to you.
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:32 PM):
I think I still only know how to play it one way, need to learn about puts and shorting, and inverse 2x etf's.
Frank says (2:33 PM):
they are selling a little now
Frank says (2:34 PM):
i think what they did was as neutral as they could have been
BOB says (2:34 PM):
some s&p floor trader, Louis ........always said there are 3 moves after FED announcement, and the 3rd move is the direction to catch
Tom says (2:34 PM):
Yes ..That is correct
Tom says (2:35 PM):
8 Open positions Thomas ???
Frank says (2:35 PM):
a floor trader whose name doesn't end in a vowel...can't believe him:)
Thomas says (2:35 PM):
You see tom here is my abc
BOB says (2:35 PM):
Louie :)
Thomas says (2:35 PM):
yes 8 positions
Tom says (2:35 PM):
Thanks
Frank says (2:35 PM):
oh, louie
Tom says (2:36 PM):
Thomas give me you 3 waves here ???
BOB says (2:36 PM):
guy was famous for buying s&p's during the 1987 crash
Frank says (2:36 PM):
aruj: what the bond guys doin?
arujunaa says (2:37 PM):
flattening the curve since inflation expectations are lower now that they "only" went 75
Tom says (2:37 PM):
dollar up commodities down ??
arujunaa says (2:37 PM):
selling short end, buying long end
Tom says (2:38 PM):
which is good for mortgages ??
Tom says (2:38 PM):
working well
Tom says (2:38 PM):
but stocks 1/2 cut
Tom says (2:38 PM):
50% retrace is not a great sign but nas is OK still
Tom says (2:39 PM):
looking to growth
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (2:39 PM):
how'd that vix play work out? I can't tell, it looks like it's the same to me.
Thomas says (2:41 PM):
Tom you can see those waves on 2 min chart just after the announcement
Thomas says (2:41 PM):
for short term day traders
Thomas says (2:41 PM):
we could sell the first reaction against seeloff
Thomas says (2:41 PM):
you can see it also on 5 min char
Thomas says (2:41 PM):
chart
Tom says (2:42 PM):
buy 2 ES at 1300
Tom says (2:43 PM):
replace the 2 sold
Tom says (2:43 PM):
at 1308
Thomas says (2:43 PM):
ok
Thomas says (2:48 PM):
have to go for 30 min will be back
Tom says (2:48 PM):
Hope you got long with me ??
Tom says (2:49 PM):
GOLD SILVER crashing ??/
Tom says (2:49 PM):
should have had some shorts on
Tom says (2:49 PM):
they have driven me crazy
Tom says (2:49 PM):
need to stay away from them
Frank says (2:50 PM):
vix lod, fear gone, fed to the rescue buy buy buy
Tom says (2:50 PM):
yep
Tom says (2:50 PM):
1000 point run ...
Tom says (2:50 PM):
too much pessimism
Jerry says (2:51 PM):
wow, sell off then rally
Tom says (2:51 PM):
yes ....got another 1k on es
Jerry says (2:51 PM):
so it is all positive from FED??
Tom says (2:51 PM):
they went .75 and sold off 50% of gains now rally back
Jerry says (2:52 PM):
you still think we have more room for rally?
Tom says (2:52 PM):
yes
Tom says (2:52 PM):
1000 points by june
Jerry says (2:52 PM):
ok. What is your target for XLKDV then?
Tom says (2:52 PM):
got the bottom
Tom says (2:53 PM):
1.80
Tom says (2:54 PM):
those VIX calls and puts did theor jobs ..they really moved
Tom says (2:54 PM):
GS earnings call was the best
Tom says (2:54 PM):
that did kill the bear
Tom says (2:54 PM):
for now
Tom says (2:55 PM):
Frank : great trade getting in and out of the ultra shorts
Tom says (2:55 PM):
you could have gotten mauled
Tom says (2:55 PM):
that takes experience ...not luck ????
Frank says (2:57 PM):
notice i took 1/4 position of each
Tom says (2:57 PM):
No ..I just noticed you knew when to get out !!!!
Tom says (2:57 PM):
which takes a lot of guts
Tom says (2:58 PM):
most stubborn traders will hold a position for ego
Tom says (2:58 PM):
you are not that type and really bodes well for our group
Tom says (2:59 PM):
and we will benefit from the 'timing' we both have developed on both sides
Tom says (2:59 PM):
seems just the other day I was 10 points under water on our bet ???
Tom says (3:00 PM):
now 70 es points up from the lows almost 600 points
Tom says (3:00 PM):
HOD for Nas
Frank says (3:01 PM):
i think the thing to watch out for now is a bull trap. i would use stops on gains and keep moving them up
arujunaa says (3:01 PM):
bond market crapping out for now. may see 24/48 hours of weakness
Tom says (3:02 PM):
in bonds or stocks ???
Tom says (3:02 PM):
I would think bonds
Tom says (3:02 PM):
not stocks as the up / down vol is giving a fresh buy signal
Tom says (3:03 PM):
Instant profits now for banks
Tom says (3:03 PM):
all banks now profitable if they have a calculator
Tom says (3:06 PM):
Aruj : you with me ???
Tom says (3:06 PM):
Nas at new highs up 100 + from yesterday at this time ???
Tom says (3:07 PM):
FNM FRE saying the housing crisis over
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (3:07 PM):
haha, seriously??
arujunaa says (3:07 PM):
for now. i bought more qld at 66.00. but i will have to see what tomorrow brings. i'm cautious between 1325/45
Tom says (3:07 PM):
FED used ramping up the mortgage crisis in past tense like Paulson did ???? do you remember me saying that ???
Tom says (3:08 PM):
I think it is over ...the party on housing is done on the down side til summer
Tom says (3:08 PM):
got 60 days of peace
arujunaa says (3:09 PM):
hope you're right. now we could be in a short term situation where people use bad data to buy dips in stocks
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (3:10 PM):
you're right about summer, Tom...
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (3:10 PM):
June there's gonna be over $70 billion of adjustable rate mortgages adjusting that month.
Tom says (3:10 PM):
This is a classic Bull start or int bull run ...as historically we will gain 10-12% in 90 days
Tom says (3:10 PM):
AFTER the cuts
Tom says (3:11 PM):
and after the upside thrust ..we now have a classic double barrelled buy signal
Tom says (3:11 PM):
very rare and has never failed
Tom says (3:11 PM):
so everyone knows it and you won't be able to get back in
Tom says (3:12 PM):
I will send you all more dat ...but believe me ...this is HUGE
Tom says (3:12 PM):
I know it is hard to believe as we just had a near blowup but we still never broke those lows !!!!!!
chubbuni13@gmail.com says (3:12 PM):
a good time to be 100% long.
Tom says (3:13 PM):
and now we got the 2nd Thrust on internals ...just google "double barrelled buy signal"
Tom says (3:13 PM):
and I will send info out
Tom says (3:14 PM):
GOOGLE will give you the articles out there on Zweig and the 100% odds on a 10% min gains in 90 days
Tom says (3:14 PM):
DOUBLE BARRELLED BUY SIGNAL STOCKS



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BUNCH OF GOOD REASONS TO BUY LONG MONDAY

TICK - NASDAQ -469 382 -74 522 -386 530 -267
10-DAY CUMUL. -364 -276 -650 -209 -882 2634 -48

TRIN - NYSE 2.01 0.80 1.44 0.60 1.96 2.07 0.21
TRIN - NYSE 10 1.34 1.41 1.45 1.38 1.41 1.41 0.86

TRIN - NASDAQ 2.88 0.84 1.26 0.33 1.42 2.09 0.05
TRIN - NASDAQ 10 1.16 1.12 1.19 1.12 1.17 1.40 0.74

VIX 31.16 27.29 27.22 26.36 29.38
% FROM 10-DAY 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.0% -10.0%

VXN 32.01 29.86 30.05 28.56 31.38
% FROM 10-DAY 8.0% 2.0% 3.8% 0.4% 11.3% 6.0% -9.0%

CBOE PUT/CALL RATIOS
TOTAL 1.40 1.22 1.11 1.12 1.48 1.20 0.80
TOTAL 5 1.27 1.23 1.24 1.25 1.27 1.20 0.85
TOTAL 10 1.24 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.22 1.20 0.90
TOTAL 21 1.15 1.13 1.13 1.12 1.12 1.10 0.90

EQUITY 1.16 0.82 0.84 0.89 0.99 0.88 0.55
EQUITY 5 0.94 0.89 0.95 0.92 0.93 0.75 0.60
EQUITY 10 0.92 0.89 0.90 0.89 0.88 0.75 0.60
EQUITY 21 0.84 0.82 0.82 0.81 0.80 0.73 0.60

ISE SENTIMENT 75 98 101 85 56 175 100
ISE 10 81 81 81 80 81 150 125

OEX 1.16 1.39 0.87 0.87 0.63 2.00 1.00
OEX 5 1.10 0.90 0.82 0.78 0.77 2.00 1.25
OEX 10 0.95 0.92 0.89 0.99 1.00 1.70 1.25
OEX 21 1.08 1.05 1.05 1.04 1.02 1.60 1.20

OEX OPEN INT 0.95 0.94 0.87 0.87 0.86 1.75 1.00


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