Why A Top Is Closer Than Most Believe

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2013 RAGER BULL

TTT Stay On The Right Side January 10, 2013 By tom Leave a Comment (Edit) Spending hours each day watching the intraday action of the stock market may not be possible for the average investor or even most financial advisors. However, you can certainly learn a lot by watching what occurs on a 1-minute chart of the S&P 500. You will see when and how hard the algos hit as it becomes obvious what the indices react to. And in short, watching the action on a very short-term basis can provide a big clue about what is most important to the big money on Wall Street. While stocks are higher since it was announced that the boys and girls in Washington would not to send the U.S. economy into a self-induced recession (aka the fiscal cliff deal) and the S&P closed yesterday within spitting distance of its recent highs for the current bull market, it is important to note that the intraday action hasn’t been terribly upbeat so far this year. In fact, of the six trading days that have occurred so far in 2013, four have seen intraday downtrends – including the last three days in a row. My friends in the glass-is-half-empty camp tell me that this is a bad omen for the stock market as a whole and that stocks are likely to turn lower from here. They point to the global macroeconomic environment and to the slowdown in earnings growth as the reasons behind the incessant intraday selling pressure. I’m told that the “big boys” are bearish and that I should be too. While I pride myself on being analytical and try my darndest to remain impartial in the daily bull/bear arguments, I can’t help but roll my eyes when the calls with the bear camp turn overtly negative. Aren’t these the same guys that told us – without absolute certainty, by the way – that Europe was going to implode in 2012 and wind up taking the rest of the global economy with it? And aren’t a lot of these guys that are soooo darned negative the same bunch of hedgies that have underperformed for three years running now? Frankly, I thought this crowd was supposed to be more objective and able to adapt to changing environments. But then again, I guess these guys remember that John Paulson didn’t make billions for himself by giving up on his thesis. Although I will admit to being a card-carrying member of the glass-is-always-at-least-half-full club and that I do tend to look on the bright side when it comes to the stock market and the U.S. economy, I do indeed see what is happening on an intraday basis lately and it does give me pause. Perhaps I’m the one who has got it wrong. Maybe the budget deal is going to sink both the economy and the stock market in the coming weeks/months. Perhaps the European debt crisis will rear its ugly head again. Maybe the fiscal cliff ordeal did indeed hurt earnings. Perhaps there are major asset allocation programs being run on a daily basis. Or maybe some of the hedgies are unwinding positions slowly. But in any event, there is simply no denying the fact that the intraday action of the market has been downright crummy for much of this year. As long time readers know, I don’t rely on what I “see” happening in the market to guide my trading or exposure/risk management decisions. No, while it may never make me the hit of the cocktail party, I simply rely on my market models to help me stay on the right side of the market’s important moves. As Marty Zweig so famously said a couple decades ago, “Big money is made in the stock market by being on the right side of major moves. I don’t believe in swimming against the tide.” On that score, our market models remain positive this morning, which tells us to give the bulls the benefit of any doubt at this point. However, I’m not at all happy about what is transpiring lately between the bells at the corner of Broad and Wall and I thought you should be aware of it. Stay tuned though because the algos can certainly change their tune in a hurry these days!

Welome To The 2013 Service I'm Back

There is a reason for my return...the Bull...You can join today and get my daily updates. I am shorting this OPEX January...see what stocks ! Join now ! Tom TTT Is back with the lowest cost pro service in the world !

CORRECTION ENDS NEW TARGET 1500 SPX YEAR END

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How To Play the Upcoming Correction

Hi , If you are a aggressive Trader you might want to short using TZA as the small caps will get hurt the worst in the month ahead but if you want to ride it out in cash or short the EURO...OK...fact is we need a scary swift 3 week fall and it will be a buying opp at 1396-1400 Cash pre e-lection.. If you want my daily comments and trades sent to you live daily 5-10 e-mails per day ...join now ! Tom

3-8% Correction Underway TTT

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1475 OR BUST KEEPING TTT ON TOP

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TTT BUY SIGNAL HIT AGAIN

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TTT BUY SIGNAL HITS NEW HIGHS

Five days ago, the bears seemed to have everything going their way. After one of the best first quarter performances in years, the stock market was overbought, sentiment had become too upbeat (or at the very least, traders had become more than a little complacent), and hedge fund managers were falling all over themselves trying to play catch up with their benchmarks (aka the S&P 500). Thus, as I wrote on March 28th, it was time to prepare for some sort of a correction, pullback, or sloppy period. In that column, we talked about some simple ways to prepare for what appeared to be an inevitable corrective phase by raising some cash, adding some volatility to portfolios via the VXX (iPath VIX Short-Term), VXZ (iPath VIX Mid-Term), or TVIX (VelocityShares 2X VIX), as well as hedging a bit of long exposure via the SH (ProShares Short S&P 500) or SDS (ProShares UltraShort S&P 500). Although predictions really and truly aren't my thing, this one was spot on as the market peaked three days later and the SPX managed to lose about -4.5% in just five sessions. On April 10th, with the indices diving in earnest, it felt like the bad-old days of 2011 were back. Intraday volatility had returned. The European Sovereign Debt Crisis was making a comeback thanks to spiking yields in Italy and Spain as well as fears that France would be the next problem (there were rumors daily that a downgrade of France's sovereign debt was imminent). There was the obvious slowdown that was occurring in China. There was the falling expectations for earnings in the U.S. (analyst downgrades to earnings forecasts far exceeded upgrades during the pre-announcement period). There was the fact that the economic data around the globe (specifically the global PMI and ISM readings) were faltering. And it had become clear that the momentum in the jobs market that had been building in the U.S. was fading fast. Oh, and lest we forget, the technical picture was becoming worrisome at that time as the DJIA and S&P looked like they were falling off of a cliff. And then the bears even got Apple (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) on their side as these tech heavyweights had held up beautifully during the initial phases of the decline. Heck, while the S&P appeared to be breaking down on April 10th, AAPL was hitting another all-time high. But as every seasoned manager knows, the bears get to EVERYTHING eventually, so it was unnerving to see AAPL finally start to succumb to the sellers on April 11th. In short, things didn't look good. But then Apple's earnings and hope for additional stimulus from Bernanke & Co. (aka "another QE fix") intervened. And just like that, the indices rebounded, aided in no small part by Apple's $50-point pop on 4/25. My apologies for the replay of history here this morning. However, as I've said a time or twenty, it is important to understand how and why things unfold in this game. And the bottom line is that although the bear camp had just about everything in their favor from April 3rd through April 25th, they weren't able to get anything more than a garden variety pullback going. Thus, it appears that we may have seen the worst of the corrective phase. But... (You knew that was coming, right?) While the correction may have ended, this does not mean that the consolidation phase that I've been yammering on about for weeks has. So, unless and until the bulls can push the Dow above 13,300, the S&P above 1420, and/or the NASDAQ above 3125, we should probably continue to play the game using consolidation-phase rules. However, if the bulls do manage to break on through to the other side for more than a day, then feel free to break out the champagne.

TTT ANNOUNCES 1st TTT BUY SIGNAL OF 2012

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Hi ,

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Look forward to seeing you Monday with a FRESH NEW BUY TTT STYLE SIGNAL !!!!


Thank you and Happy Easter and Passover to you all !

Tom The Trader

AAPL

Foxconn’s Chinese labor issues? Hot-running iPads? Global 4G issues?

Not a problem Monday as AAPL once again took off like a rocket, +19.08 or + 3.2%, closing at $618.63.

And it looks like a higher open again today, trading over $630 area as we write this.

Now, how much of this increase has to do with any real news is debatable, despite a little known analyst coming out with the highest target we have seen yet, $1,001. (FactSet has the average AAPL target of 39 covering analysts at $678).

It might not have hurt that Consumer Reports came out with a story defusing their prior comments on “hot-running” iPads, saying, “Consumers other than serious gamers should find little of concern in our extended tests, on either the heat or recharging issues." The iPad was given essentially rave reviews, and according to eNews: “Consumer Reports has put the new Apple iPad at the top of its latest tablet list. The magazine's editors liked the new iPad enough to recalibrate their ratings system.”

But we think AAPL’s move has more to do with last week’s end-of quarter games and some positioning in front of the earnings season, but that is just our opinion.

Which brings up the AAPL story we really want to talk about.

We have seen variations of this story from about six different financial news sources and just heard it again on Bloomberg Radio, so we thought it might be worth just a quick mention:

“NEWSFLASH: Apple’s strong stock performance has helped lift the S&P and tech indices!”

The real point being made in these pieces is just how outsized AAPL’s performance has become and its impact (and risk) to the indices.

Five different major investment houses are now putting out quarterly S&P earnings estimates (and therefore SPX projections) based on the S&P with and without AAPL earnings. Not that they expect Apple to mysteriously disappear, but rather to get another take on the health, or lack thereof, of earnings seasons in a broader market context.

According to BusinessInsider:

“Analyzing the market sans-Apple is becoming a more and more popular sport on Wall Street. A new report from Barclays' Barry Knap adds to the body of literature, looking at S&P earnings sans-Apple: As we head into 1Q12 earnings season, much like last quarter, AAPL is expected to have another sizable effect on index earnings and margins, masking otherwise less-than-stellar trends. Earnings growth is estimated at just 1.4% year over year, and about zero excluding AAPL.” (note that is one specific analyst’s take on the upcoming earnings season).
Ned Davis Research is quoted in Fortune and Barron’s with a different take, but making basically the same point:

“Last week, Dan Sanborn of Ned Davis Research took another look at the S&P 500 Q4 2011 earnings prism and saw an even wider spread. Now, according to Sanborn, the S&P index's total earnings growth drops from 7.8% year over year with Apple to just 2.7% without. Sanborn writes that within the tech sector, Q4 2011 earnings growth was 19.6% with Apple included, but just 3.3% without Apple. Sanborn notes, however, that Apple’s earnings as a percentage of total Standard & Poor’s 500 index companies earnings is 4.8%, which he writes is about in line with the 4.7% average represented by the top earner in the S&P 500 going back to 1980.”
All right, so Apple is having a huge impact, but perhaps no more than other mega-caps have had in the past. What are we supposed to take away from that information and implications for the upcoming earnings season?

Perhaps a few things:

If AAPL outperforms again in its usual fashion, the upcoming earnings season lift to the S&P could be higher than many expect. A relatively mediocre earnings season, which is being widely predicted, could turn out significantly better than expected.
Barclays Capital‘s equity strategists Barry Knapp and Eric Slover seem to support this thesis, writing that Apple gains make up 15% of the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s 12% rise this year, which they characterize as the stock “contributing over four times its weight in the index.” However, they do see some “concentration risk” in Apple’s large effect.
Other analysts have contended that if AAPL grows to over 5% of the S&P market cap, that could have a negative contradictory effect, with some number of actively managed funds being forced to sell AAPL due to charter provisions limiting percent of the fund in any one issue. We are not sure how impactful that really could be, but it is floating out there as a theory.
Other analysts take the exact opposite POV, saying that AAPL’s status now as a dividend-payer opens up a whole new category of funds being “permitted” to buy the stock.
But in the final analysis, all that really matters is whether or not AAPL will continue its “almost unbroken” streak of massive upside surprises on April 24th (date not confirmed).
For the past four quarters, AAPL has “surprised”as follows: +19.2%, +33.6%, -4.6%, +36.5%
According to most sources, the consensus for the March quarter is for Apple to earn $9.78 per share on revenues approaching $35.9 billion, annual increases year over year of +52.8% and +45.5% respectively.
With a five-year history of annual growth of +65.9%, these numbers look like they could be achievable in theory without much of a stretch, although growth for the next five years is estimated to “slow” to a mere +19.8%.
So, in the words of Doug Kass, will it remain an NBA market this year or not—Nothing But Apple?

LAST BULL LEG IN GOLD SEE HOW TO PLAY IT

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Technical Talk: March 13, 2012

Our Current Take:

There are times, such as last fall, when the stock market game is incredibly difficult. And then there are other times when the game is fairly straightforward. The good news is that we are now experiencing the latter. The bottom line is simple - the trend is up and the indices are at new highs for the cycle. So, for today at least, the game is about staying onboard the bull trend.

We would consider being short-term buyers at: A close over 1374 on S&P 500

We would consider being short-term sellers: A close below 1357 on the S&P 500

Trend and Momentum Indicators:

Short-Term Trend: The s.t. trend is once again positive. And unless the bears make a big comeback today, it is likely to stay that way.

Intermediate-Term Trend: With the indices at new highs for the cycle, prices above their moving averages, and the moving averages also moving higher, it is safe to say that the intermediate-term trend remains positive.

Market Internals: Our TBC models are positive this morning and confirming the rally.

TBC = Trend-and-Breadth-Confirm Model
Market Momentum: Our momentum models are end-of-day based. As such, we will be looking at these indicators closely tomorrow to see if they confirm the bulls' latest efforts.

Support/Resistance Zones for S&P 500:


Current Support: 1340

Current Resistance: 1375
Early Warning Indicators:

Overbought/Oversold Condition: No surprise here... The market is once again overbought from both a short- and intermediate-term perspective.

Investor Sentiment: Sentiment is only modestly negative at the present time. We will be on the lookout for a return to extreme levels.

TIME TO JOIN TODAY

A complete set of trading data is available via Google spreadsheets at this link: Annual 2012 Spreadsheet.



Discussion of results:
Â"Overall we can not be more pleased with our results. The 2nd half of the year was clearly our strength, and although we missed on the 2x gains we strive for in the IRA, our Traders 4x performance more than made up the difference. The 2nd quarter presented some unique challenges, one of which was health, with that behind us we expect to be able to roll into 2012 and maintain the momentum we have from Q3 and Q4.Â" says Tom Malone, CEO Founder - TTTHedge.com

Â"Cathy Cullen, our Mini account trader continues to impress everyone, posting increasing gains each quarter while trading one of the most demanding and rewarding instruments, the TF Russell 2000 E-mini under the restrictions of being in cash each night. A remarkable accomplishment in a market that closed the year where it opened and presented a mid-year high on May 2nd and retracted.Â"

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TTT Talks 2011 INTO 2012

After a tumultuous year that was among the
most volatile on record, the domestic stock markets
survived a sluggish U.S. economy, a spreading
euro debt crisis, and a gridlocked Washington
to end 2011 virtually where they started.
Propelled by a fourth-quarter boost of
11.9%(1), the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial
Average closed the year at 12,217.56, an increase
of 5.6%(1), the third consecutive positive year for
the Dow. The S&P 500, a broader gauge of market
activity, climbed 11.1%(1) in the final quarter
and ended at 1,251.60, almost dead even with last
year’s 1,251.64 close. The technical 0.003%(1) difference
was its smallest annual move since 1970.
The technology heavy Nasdaq Composite gained
7.8%(1) in the fourth quarter but closed at
2,605.16, down 1.80%(1) for the year.
The lack-luster domestic stock markets still
outperformed the major international markets.
The Dow Jones Global Index, excluding the U.S.,
tumbled 16.3%(1) in 2011 while the STOXX Europe
600 Index fell 11.34%(1). U.K.’s FTSE
100 Index dipped 5.6%(1); Germany’s DAX Index
lost 15%(1), its first annual decline since 2008.
France’s CAC 40 dropped 17%(1) and Italy’s FTSE
MIB Index, down 26%(1), was the biggest loser.
Back home, the Federal Reserve (“Fed”)
reduced its forecasts for U.S. economic growth.
It predicted that the economy would grow 2.7%
in 2012, well below its June projections of 3.3% to
3.7%. For 2013, the Fed now expects expansion
of 3.2% down from its previous estimates of 3.5%
to 4.2%. The Fed projected a gain of up to 4% in
2014.
(1) Return excludes reinvested dividends.
For information regarding the indexes cited and key investment terms used in this report see page 6.
2
The Central Bank also predicts that the U.S.
unemployment rate will still be at least 8.5% at
the end of this year, at least 7.8% at the end of
2013 and at least 6.7% to 7.6% by the fourth
quarter of 2014.
There were several bright spots on the economic
horizon. For one thing, the Labor Department
reported that the private sector added
200,000 jobs in December, marking the sixth
consecutive month of gains topping 100,000. As a
result, the unemployment rate dipped to 8.5%
from November’s 8.7%, to its lowest level in
nearly three years.
Another positive note was the report by the
Institute of Supply Management (“ISM”) that U.S.
manufacturing expanded in December at its fastest
pace in six months. ISM’s closely watched
gauge of factory activity climbed to 53.9 in December,
up from 52.7 in November and its best
reading since last June. Scores over 50 indicate
expansion. The trade group also reported that its
index of non-manufacturing or service industries
rose to 52.6 in December from 52 in November,
which was the lowest reading in nearly two
years.
Housing, a vital factor in the economy, is
showing signs of recovery. The Commerce
Department reported that housing starts in
November reached 685,000 units, up 9.3% from
October and the highest level since April 2010.
Building permits increased 5.7% to an annual rate
of 681,000. The agency also reported that sales of
new single-family homes rose 1.8% in November
to a seasonally-adjusted 315,000 units, the
highest total in seven months.
The Conference Board reported that its consumer
confidence index spurted 10 points in
December to just above the level of a year ago.
Consumer spending, however, which accounts
for about 70% of U.S. economic activity, inched
up only 0.1% in November compared with
October, according to the Commerce
Department. Spending was restrained because
disposable personal income was flat in November
after increasing 0.3% in October.
Indications that inflation is slowing came
from the Labor Department report that its consumer
price index was unchanged in November
from October. Deleting volatile food and energy
prices, the index was up 2.7% in November. For
the year to date, the rise was 2.2%, slightly above
the Fed’s preferred range of 2%. The agency also
reported that its producer price index grew at a
seasonally-adjusted 0.3% in November. Removing
energy and food prices, the index was up by just
0.1%.
With U.S. imports declining more than exports,
the trade deficit narrowed to $43.5 billion
in October against $44.2 billion in September,
according to the Commerce Department. Exports
of goods totaled $127 billion in October
against $129.3 billion in September. Service exports
of $51.4 billion were unchanged from the
prior month. Imports of goods came to $186.6
billion for October against $188.8 billion in September.
Imports for services inched up to $36.1
billion from $36.0 billion. U.S. import prices,
which had fallen 0.5% in October, grew 0.7% in
November, the highest increase since April 2011.
Compared with most major market currencies,
the dollar ended 2011 within roughly 3% of
where it began the year. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index,
which measures the greenback against a
basket of other currencies, increased 1.5% in the
year. Hitting a new low in the final days of the
year, the euro closed at $1.2960. The chief exception
to the strong dollar was the yen. Despite
a year of deep trouble in Japan, the yen ended
more than 5% higher against the dollar. Climbing
from 81.25 yen at the start of the year, the dollar
fell to a record low near 75.8 yen in April and
completed the year at 76.92 yen.
Last year was a disappointment for deal
makers, with mergers and acquisitions declining
For information regarding the indexes cited and key investment terms used in this report see page 6.
3
after a strong start, according to Thomson Reuters.
In the first six months of 2011, announced
global deals came to $1.3 trillion, the highest
level since the financial crisis. However, deals
slumped 14% in the second half, bringing the
2011 dollar volume to $2.6 trillion, slightly below
the 2010 figure of $2.66 trillion.
The number of initial public offerings
(“IPOs”) and dollars raised was the lowest since
2009, according to Dealogic. Globally, there were
240 deals, raising $25.3 billion, in the fourth quarter,
the lowest deal volume since the third quarter
of 2009 and the lowest dollar volume since
the second quarter of 2009. For all of 2011, there
were 1,243 IPOs, raising $160 billion, again the
lowest figures since 2009. For the third consecutive
year, the world’s leading exchange for IPOs
was Hong Kong, with $31 billion in deals. The
volume of deals on the Chinese mainland slightly
topped the combined total of Nasdaq and the
New York Stock Exchange.
Based on current earnings estimates, Bloomberg
News reported that stocks on the S&P 500
were trading at a price/earnings ratio of 13.24 on
December 30, 2011. This compares with 11.94 on
September 30 and 14.88 on December 30 last
year. The P/Es for trailing twelve - month earnings
were reported by S&P at 12.96 on December
30, 13.01 on September 30 and 15.01 on December
30, 2010. As we see it, the P/E’s are neither
terribly high nor terribly low. Given present
market conditions, they appear to be in the normal
range as far as valuations are concerned.
The current consensus among Wall Street
research analysts is that S&P fourth-quarter
earnings will climb 8.3% in 2011 to $24.40,
according to Thomson Reuters. In October the
analysts were expecting 15% gains in the quarter.
For all of 2012, the S&P earnings are projected to
increase 10% to $107.20.
Looking to the future, both analysts and investors
were more bullish at the year’s end, with
analysts the most optimistic. Surveyed by Investors
Intelligence, analysts stood at 50% bulls and
29% bears on December 30, a reversal of their
position on September 30, which saw 37% bulls
and 41% bears. At the end of 2011, analysts came
to 56% bulls and 20% bears. Reported by the
American Institute of Investors, their members
totaled 41% bulls and 31% bears on December 30,
32% bulls and 47% bears on September 30, and
52% bulls and 20% bears at the end of 2010.
Since the market had risen since early October,
the increased optimism is no surprise.
They may be right. From August to October, our
sentiment indicators registered a lot of pessimism.
While some of our current indicators still
include some pretty bad numbers, our sentiment
model reading overall is now neutral.
Among our other models, the monetary reading
is bullish. That’s because the Fed has driven
interest rates to zero and is buying securities.
However, we wonder how bullish it can really be
when rates are at zero. As far as the tape is concerned,
we consider the current action quite positive.
It’s difficult to know the tape’s actual
performance because of the distortions caused
by the computer traders who account for more
than half of the volume. There are far more unusual
up and down days than we have seen in the
past. Taking a long view, the tape is acting reasonably
well.
Our stance on the market at this writing is
somewhat bullish and we are about 82% to 83%
long. For our Fund any investment figure over
80% is bullish.